The Argument For Alex Smith
by nocal81(Vincent) on Dec 11, 2009 2:04 PM PST
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Over the course of the last two months my entire opinion of Alex Smith has changed from a bust to someone that could be our QB of the future. Amazing isn't it? In September i was throwing out the idea of releasing him following this season and now i believe he should be handed the reigns in 2010. I will be listing some statistics to back up my opinion but in all this will be more of a broad conversation regarding Smith and our QB position.
Statistical Comparisons
Alex Smith: 61.8 % 1,577 YDS 13TD/7INT 86.7 Rating 244.7YPG 1.86 TD/INT Ratio
Donovan Mcnabb: 61.0 % 2,427 YDS 16TD/6INT 92.3 Rating 242.7 YPG 2.67 TD/INT Ratio
Eli Manning: 59.4 % 2,925 YDS 20TD/11INT 86.8 Rating 243.3 YPG 1.82 TD/INT Ratio
Matt Ryan: 59.4 % 2,291 YDS 16TD/12INT 80.0 Rating 229.1 YPG 1.33 TD/INT Ratio
Jay Cutler: 62.0 % 2,814 YDS 17TD/20INT 77.6 Rating 234.5 YPG 1.18 INT/TD Ratio
Kyle Orton: 61.2 % 2,627 YDS 14TD/7INT 88.0 Rating 218.9YPG 2.00 TD/INT Ratio
Matt Cassel: 53.9 % 1,982 YDS 13TD/9INT 72.3 Rating 180.2 YPG 1.44 TD/INT Ratio
Carson Palmer 60.8 % 2,547 Yards 16TD/10INT 85.0 Rating 212.3 YPG 1.60 TD/INT Ratio
Now the only reason i added Cutler and Cassel to this list is because many where talking about those two as options for us in trades during the last off-season. They both have had incredibly poor seasons following major trades and it would have been a mistake to acquire either. Also keep in mind that Alex Smith is the 2nd youngest QB on this list behind Matt Ryan. Who would have thought that following week 13 Alex Smith would have a higher QB rating then Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer? Amazing isn't it?
Beyond the statistics i would like to talk about how Alex Smith has played since taking over as a starter. Sure he has had his ups and downs. But it's hard to argue that he isn't coming off the best 10 quarter stretch of his career. Granted we went 1-2 during that time, but he has continued to improve and show he has the ability to be a darn good QB in this league. He is looking more comfortable in the pocket and is making less mistakes. By mistakes i am not talking only about Interceptions but holding on to the ball too long, throwing it into coverage, staring down the receiver or missing on passes. It seems to me that he is starting to anticipate the coverage much better, make quick reads and throw the ball away when the play isn't available. I like the fact that he goes to the check down quicker instead of forcing it or taking a sack, this enables us to get positive yardage instead of negative yardage. These are all indicators of him progressing as a QB and becoming comfortable in the offense. This only promises to get better in the final 4 weeks.
Now some could question all this praise considering he is 2-4 as a starting QB, but really how much of that is his fault? As the leader of the offense he is partially to blame but the onus cannot be solely placed on him. Yes we went something like 1-13 on third downs against Seattle. But how much of that is on Alex Smith? And how much of that is on dropped passes and play calling? Now don't get me wrong he has a lot more to prove and a lot more progress to make before i anoint him our "franchise QB" but the strides he is taking are very very good. I would like to see a 2/1 QB to TD ratio, and he is nearly right at that, i would also like to see a rating of between 90-95 and he isn't far from that. But in the end i want to see us win games and he has to prove he can do that.
If you are not a big fan of Alex Smith i completely understand that, he hasn't done anything to give us confidence in his skills before these last 6 games. But let me ask you this. What are the alternatives? The free agent market is average at best, the draft class is completely overrated, Nate Davis isn't ready to take over and Shaun Hill is nothing more then a very good backup in this league.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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With an offseason of continuity
and Smith for sure being our QB, this offense should excel next season.
define "of the future"
if you mean “of next year” then absolutely. If you mean “the next 10 years” well… maybe. We’ll see how he does next year.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
that's how I feel
A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.
Also agree
Give him the rest of this year and the start of next year to see what happens. Use our first round draft picks on offensive line and secondary help. If towards the end of next season it becomes obvious Smith won’t work and we aren’t in the playoff hunt, throw Nate Davis in and see what he can do. If Nate Davis doesn’t show any potential, and I know he’ll have mistakes but he should still show potential, then draft a QB high in the 2011 draft.
Don't trust this guy. He lies.
I Define Future
as the next few seasons or so. I am under the assumption Smith will start for the 49ers in 2010. But that doesn’t mean he is our QB of the future. Clear it up a bit for you?
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Dec 11, 2009 4:36 PM PST reply actions
?
Why does Jay cutler have an INT/TD ratio while all the others have TD/INT ratio.
You should have listed Jay Cutler’s TD/INT (0.85)
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
LOL
I was doing the math in my head and it came out like that. I should have reversed the answer… It does look a little awkward
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Dec 11, 2009 8:25 PM PST up reply actions
Alex is doing reallly good...
I used to hate him. But he is showing some changes in his game. We got Nate Davis as a back if Alex slips up and doesn’t keep getting better. Although I have to give it up, he has been lookin great the last couple of games. Do NOT draft a QB..
Yeah me too I thought he was also a bust but he turned it around. Hopefully he can have a monster game in primetime
49ers Al Grito De Guerra!!! hahaha
by 49erSalvatrucha on Dec 12, 2009 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
sorry
alex has been so bad for so long that it’s hard for me to get excited about him after only 6 games. he’s playing better, but i don’t see him as a long term solution.
"There is no pressure. Pressure only exists when you're not prepared."
-The Samurai
Strive to be a happy optimism; pessimists are almost always sad
I have never understood that kind of statement (alex has been so bad for so long), and I read it or things like it all the time. He was really bad one year, his first year. He was fair his second year. He did not play much his third year because of an injury, and played poorly, when he did play, because of the injury. His fourth year he did not play at all.
His initial problem: He was just plain too young and too dumb to be an NFL starting QB.
Now he is older, smarter, and much more aware what he is doing and what is going on around him.
No doubt, he will have bad games in the future, who doesn’t. But it is easy right now to see Alex Smith as the 49er QB for the next ten years, IF he keeps going as he has been. And that is not a significantly big IF. Its what we all want, except for a few die hards who want Alex to fail just so they can continue to say, "I told you so."
by CorneliusJ on Dec 12, 2009 8:43 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
no way
in hades that alex smith is with the 9ers 10 yrs from now. i’d put money on that. lol
9er fans have been humbled so much by all this sucking that we’ve lowered our standards as far as qb’s go. you mean to tell me you think smith is a long term option the way montana, young, or even garcia was? NO WAY. you’ve lowered your standards and don’t even realize it
"There is no pressure. Pressure only exists when you're not prepared."
-The Samurai
Did you notice,
“IF he keeps going as he has been” as in the recent games.
If he doesn’t then you are absolutly correct.
What I find puzzling is your total confidence in the notion that Alex Smith not only will fail but must fail. He might and might not. I don’t think any of us can predict the future.
I hope you are not one who wants AS to fail.
oh and
Cornelius you nailed it. some niners fans are genuinely rooting for alex to fail just because of the resentment that was built up against him over the last two seasons. why cant we all just be happy that he seems to have turned the page, instead of belaboring how much he sucked before this season. man that gets old.
wanna hear a funny joke? the Buccaneers picked Gaines Adams over Patrick Willis
Disagree
It isn’t as much a lowering of standards as it is understanding how much Smith has improved since last time we saw him play. This guy was a bum as short as 4 months ago and now what he has shown, stats aside, is simply amazing. For you not to recognize that shows some sense of ignorance on your part
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Dec 12, 2009 8:29 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
exactly
i hate this mentality. i too was an alex hater once, but i’ve changed my tune. no one seems to understand that ANY rookie we bring in will be mark sanchez statistically, at best. Almost every Rookie quarterback take at least two years to start reaching their full potential. it just took alex a little longer. there are a handful of exceptions, but they are just that; exceptions. it is ridiculous to think that just because a guys name isnt alex smith that he will step in and immediately click in this offense. if fans are truely impatient to get good again, then why do they want to start this entire process over again? it would pretty much relegate the 9ers to at best an 8-8 team for the next two years. and if the guy they draft is a bust, then we are worse off then we are now! why risk cutting a player that finally has showed steady improvement over a half of a football season for a guy that has never seen an NFL snap.
wanna hear a funny joke? the Buccaneers picked Gaines Adams over Patrick Willis
Well Alex was reaching his potential in 2 years
Then part of his shoulder got taken home with Seattle. And then another part got taken with scumbag Nolan throwing him under the bus while using the media to blast him for faking an injury. I would say the % of QBs that went through what he went through would have packed it up and called it a career with the handsome amount of money he made.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Dec 13, 2009 5:57 PM PST up reply actions
exactly
but as it stands hes young and talented and doing a fine job at picking up where he left off after the injury.
wanna hear a funny joke? the Buccaneers picked Gaines Adams over Patrick Willis
lol
i really believe alex smith is just bad luck. it’s like he’s cursed.
"There is no pressure. Pressure only exists when you're not prepared."
-The Samurai
meant that as a reply to cornelius
"Pat is still just scratching the surface." - Coach Singletary on LB Patrick Willis
more stats:
Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, Defense-adjusted value over average, yards/attempt:
Player, DYAR, DVOA, Y/A:
Smith: 174, -0.4%, 6.5
McNabb: 403, 7.7%, 7.8
Manning: 671, 15.5%, 7.7
Ryan: 552, 13.2%, 6.6
Cutler: -220, -18.8%, 6.7
Orton: 595, 13.0%, 7.1
Cassell: -535, -32.8%, 5.7
Palmer: 668, 16.2%, 7.0
I imagine Smith’s low DYAR is because it’s cumulative and he hasn’t played the full season? But his DVOA is less than inspiring and his y/a is underwhelming. So it looks like this types of stats aren’t as high on him as the others. Either way, I still like what I’ve seen and want to see him starting next year.
A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.
yards/attempt and yards/completion
By these more advanced metrics, Smith is actually pretty comparable to Hill this year. Of course the offense had totally stagnated with Hill in there, so I think Smith is the better choice, but we’re not out of the woods yet. I’m still waiting for a slant, a missed tackle, and a 85 yard TD.
Jason Hill is turning the corner!
By these more advanced metrics, Smith is actually pretty comparable to Hill this year.
This is a key point when always reading individual advanced metrics. It’s not ranking an individual independent of the offensive system. It’s ranking the individual’s performance inside a given system, by system I mean play calling and team personnel.
For Alex Smith it’s saying Alex Smith is 22nd ranked QB running Jimmy Raye’s offense with Frank Gore, VD, Crabtree, Morgan, LOLine and etc. The play calling or talent around can limit the QB’s efficiency. The fact that Hill and Smith have similar ratios suggests maybe the 49ers don’t run efficient passing plays to begin with. Name me one home run play the 49ers have in the passing game? The closed play is the 15 yard seem pass to VD, and that is it.
actually:
Hill: -189 DYAR, -29.3% DVOA, 6.1 Y/A
A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.
KSWOF
disagrees
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Dec 13, 2009 4:37 PM PST up reply actions
I was looking at that
This is the type of F.O. that drives me nuts. Their offensive and defensive analysis seems to be pretty spot on as the season progresses but their individuals stats always come across as a bit fishy and deceiving.
Alex is currently ranked 22, below Vince Young, David Garrard, Jason Campbell and Chad Henne. Should also note McNabb is ranked 21. If you had to pick a QB to play this week Alex is probably your next choice after McNabb on this list. I typically prefer Danny’s way of reading the ranking table by breaking analysis into quadrants. Alex is a 3rd, sometimes 2nd quadrant QB.
F.O. outsiders also has Tom Brady ahead of Drew Brees in their rankings. Even Patriots fans would agree that Brees is better this year. But if you say Brady and Brees are both 1st quadrant QB’s than F.O. is making a lot of sense.
yes
these stats may be misleading because it’s so much harder to have valid individual stats in a sport like football. I list these only as another way to try to objectify his performance. It’s up to each person to decide which stats they believe are the most valid and telling of true performance.
A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.
Where did you get this info?
The information from the links you provided differs from the information you posted.
I’m sure you didn’t make it up. I’m just not so sure you didn’t cherry-pick the information you wanted to strengthen your case.
Links always add a trump card to your argument. In this case, not so much…
Yes, I'm sure Jerry Rice never dropped a single pass in his entire football career.
Smith
I am all for giving him the ball next year. If he only continues to get better, then absolutely…for years to come and give him another long-term contract. The best part of your argument here, is the age factor in him being the 2nd youngest player on the list next to Matt Ryan. If Alex just gets better and better (like I think most of us are hoping for) he could potentially be with us for the next 13-14 years.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
by Drew Kerr on Dec 12, 2009 4:48 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
We need it to work out...
Having to start over with yet another QB will retard the offensive development we’ve seen over this past season.
excellent use of
retard. pure gold. but i couldn’t agree more. we will go back to a 2.5 yards per carry rushing team that runs the ball 35-40 times a game as the rookie qb puts up a 10TD/17INT ratio. oh joy where do i sign up
wanna hear a funny joke? the Buccaneers picked Gaines Adams over Patrick Willis
25 years old
Brady is currently 32….Most QB’s play for a while barring MAJOR injuries. If Smith continues to progress, we have a Franchise QB.
Things I think he needs to work on is getting comfortable in the pocket and letting deep passes with one on one coverage develope, which is also on the OL to give him the protection.
I would like to see him look off defenders and stare down targets less. It appears he goes no further than a second read while staying in the pocket.
If he gets better in these areas, he definitley is our QBOTF.
True knowledge is knowing you know, nothing!!
Blk Sand Ninja-
by rlott#42 on Dec 12, 2009 7:03 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
He really doesn't have time to go through more than 2 reads
He’s gotten used to having 2.5 – 3 seconds and the ball better be out of there. We the line around him is performing at a high level he’ll be calm, cool and collected and cycle through reads picking D’s apart just like at Utah
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Dec 13, 2009 6:03 PM PST up reply actions
I have to agree. I have always been an advocate of Alex Smith. I have never blamed Smith for his inability to succeed. The 49er organization has impeded Smith from moving forward, However, I do say this: he still lacks one final element….leadership.
Christian E Davila
This will come
I think it started to come already. Alex was a guy that hadn’t played in over a year and looked like crap while playing injured the season before that. Hard to be a leader in the huddle and locker room when you’re carrying the clipboard. Now that he is in charge that leadership will show again.
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Dec 13, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions
Nate Davis!!!
If the niners lose against the cardinals it .time to give Nate some reps.
spelling
sorry about spelling game is starting
He needs reps on the scout team before he can get reps during games. expect to wait until late next season before he even might make an appearance.
by hellaninersfan on Dec 14, 2009 6:28 PM PST up reply actions
That makes no sense at all.
Smith starte horribly tonight. Quite frankly, it looked like nerves: big game, national TV, etc.
Looks like he’s settled down a little, and that’s nice, but it sort of makes the point:
Since Smith is, barring a complete disaster, our starter going into next year, he needs the experience. He needs to play through some rough starts. He needs to learn how to calm down when he’s jumpy.
The playoffs may not happen, even if we win this game, but we’re laying the groundwork for the future.
And right now, that means give Smith as many reps as possible.
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