49ers Rooting Guide (Weeks 15-17)
by mr. instigator on Dec 14, 2009 10:31 PM PST
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PrintHere is a guide of what teams to root for in weeks 15, 16 and 17.
Goals are represented in parenthesis as WC = Wildcard, Div = Division, Drft = Higher draft pick from Carolina.
Playoff Scenario
IF 49ers win out
AND
Cardinals lose 2/3
We win NFC West
OR
IF 49ers win out
AND
Cowboys lose 2/3, Giants lose 1/3 & Falcons lose 1/3
We win Wild-Card spot
Week 15:
Detroit Lions over Arizona Cardinals (Div)
Pittsburgh Steelers over Green Bay Packers (Div) - A loss for GB makes it more likely that they will have to play harder in week 17 vs. Arizona
New Orleans Saints over Dallas Cowboys (WC)
Washington Redskins over New York Giants (WC)
New York Jets over Atlanta Falcons (WC)
Minnesota Vikings over Carolina Panthers (Drft) - Hurt Panther's record
Jacksonville Jaguars over Indianapolis Colts (Drft) - Improve Jaguar's record
Chicago Bears over Baltimore Ravens (Drft) - Improve Bear's record
Oakland Raiders over Denver Broncos (Drft) - Improve Raider's record
Seattle Seahawks over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Drft) - Improve Seahawk's record
Buffalo Bills over New England Patriots (Drft) - Improve Bill's record
Week 16:
St. Louis Rams over Arizona Cardinals (DIV)
Washington Redskins over Dallas Cowboys (WC)
Carolina Panthers over New York Giants (WC) - This is the one week we want the Panthers to win
Buffalo Bills over Atlanta Falcons (WC/Drft) - This would also improve Bill's record
Tennessee Titans over San Diego Chargers (Drft) - Improve Titan's record
Seattle Seahawks over Green Bay Packers (Drft/Div) - Improve Seahawks record/Pressure Packers
Oakland Raiders over Cleveland Browns (Drft) - Improve Raider's record
Chicago Bears over Minnesota Vikings (Drft) - Improve Bear's record
Week 17:
Green Bay Packers over Arizona Cardinals (Div)
Philadelphia Eagles over Dallas Cowboys (WC)
Minnesota Vikings over New York Giants (WC)
Tampa Bay over Atlanta Falcons (WC) - Hopefully the Falcons will have lost a game by now, in which case rooting for them to improve their record is preferable
New Orleans Saints over Carolina Panthers (Drft) - Hurt Panther's record
Jacksonville Jaguars over Cleveland Browns (Drft) - Improve Jaguar's record
Buffalo Bills over Indianapolis Colts (Drft) - Improve Bill's record
Chicago Bears over Detroit Lions (Drft) - Improve Bear's record
Washington Redskins over San Diego Chargers (Drft) - Improve Redskin's record
And of course, we must win out!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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TECHNICALLY
we can lose a game and win the division! If Arizona goes 0-3. Which seems… uh… unlikely. As it is I don’t see how they can lose to either Detroit or St. Louis.
Going into this weekend, the niners had like a 4% chance of making the playoffs. That’s probably like a 9% chance now.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
St. Louis would be the major upset game for Cardinals
I believe it’s Mike Lombardi who has the theory on NFL Network that the Rams play well against pass heavy teams. I also believe the Rams have one victory left in them, just hope it’s not Week 17.
FO stats are out..
Niners actually have a 11.5% chance of grabbing that last WC spot PLUS a 4% chance of winning the division.
GB/Min/Phi/Ari/NO are essentially locks (95% chance all 5 make it)
with DAL/NYG/SF rated at 65/25/15 (extra 5% is chance that one of the above 4 misses the playoffs).
You forgot Philly’s game against Denver. Which is sorta interesting in that both teams just need to win once to make the playoffs.
Green bay probably also only needs to win 1 game.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
by zenbitz on Dec 15, 2009 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Niners need only win out
And I really think 9-7 gets us in, one way or the other. For the division, I’m hoping that AZ on a short week with consecutive road losses takes Detroit lightly (and who wouldn’t after watching their Ravens game film) but finds themselves in a dog-fight and gets upset on the road. Niners then win in Philly and it’s one game back, all pressure on AZ.
Sounds a bit unlikely but who would’ve thought last season that Denver’s end of season slide would include a home loss to Buffalo, or Tampa would lose at home to Oakland.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Fast guys aren't falling out of the sky
And Battle can finish the season here and join the Bears as there number 1 next season.
True knowledge is knowing you know, nothing!!
Blk Sand Ninja-
by rlott#42 on Dec 14, 2009 11:28 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
It's not just about fast guys
though that certainly helps. It’s coaching and blocking too.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Playoffs
No way AZ falls to either Detriot or rams. With the way the Giants and Cowboys are playing the wildcard might not be as formidable as once thought.
I agree...
I can’t see Arizona managing to implode so badly they find a way to lose in Detroit. I don’t think you can beat the Cardinals unless you can force turnovers, and I’m not sure Detroit has a defense – much less one that can cause turnovers.
Beating Philadelphia and hoping Dallas does its usually December self-destruction is the 49ers best hope of slipping into the playoffs.
the lions
will beat the cards the lions are better than alot of ppl think
If the lions could put together a whole game they'd be much better
they can play a great first half and then tend to lose it in the 2nd.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Not out of the realm of reality
As awful as they played at Baltimore you’d think the law of averages will even out somewhat this Sunday at home. Or just for prides sake.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
the Giants aer 7-6...
they only need to lose 1 out of 3 (we would hold the tie breaker with a 9-7 record)
Okay,
So really we should want Dallas to lose all 3, and the Giants & Falcons to lose 2 ea.!!!! Then the Philly game shouldn’t matter as much? But who else would sneak in there in contention if we lost one?
11-5... So I was overly Optimistic! Maybe Next year!
Panthers Seahawks and Bears would be possibilities
Bears and Seahawks we would beat in tie breakers but the Panthers would end with a better conference record if they won out and we lost one.
by snowweasel30 on Dec 15, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions
panthers are playing the vikings, who will be playing starters in order to clinch the 1st round bye. Then their last game is against the saints, who will probably still be looking to go undefeated.
Seahawks have to beat the pack at lambeau and the titans, both of whom are in the hunt for the wildcard.
The bears have to beat baltimore, who are in the wild card hunt, and the vikings may have to play starters against them if they want to rest farve against the giants, depending on how the cards do.
by hellaninersfan on Dec 15, 2009 6:25 PM PST up reply actions
Great Post
if we could have only won against seattle our hopes would be much better, or maybe if we could have held a lead on the colts and spencer hadnt blown his assignment on wayne, and how in the world did the reciever from the vikings catch that ball with practically no time on the clock..man i just dont know why were in this situation to begin with but it seems like we have the most hopes we have had in a while in niner nation…
"Im not a numbers guy, im a Football player"
-M.Crabtree
Cool
I think our best chance is the wildcard. Dallas will lose 2 games without a doubt, their schedule is Tough. Giants aren’t playing well and they are playing a Redskins team that has lost close ones in the past 3 weeks. Giants probably lose 1. So hopefully we can go into Philly and Steal a win. 9-7 49ers, 9-7 Cowboys, 9-7 Giants, and we’d go to the playoffs because of a better conference record.
First round could be….49ers at Cardinals
how sick would that be
OWENS! OWENS! OWENS! OWENS!
- Joe Starkey
by 9ersDubsGiantSharks on Dec 15, 2009 1:00 PM PST reply actions
Thought about that
But in that scenario we’d go to Philly. Worst WC (#6 seed) plays the #3 seed, while #4 plays #5. So GB would return to AZ.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
well if Cardinals can reach the # 3 seed if we beat Philly so it could happen
Id rather play the Cardinals in arizona instead of philly in philly
AGREE. plus it would be sweet if we beat the cards 3 times in 1 year. my favorite scenario is Cards and niners both winning out, with eagles losing to us and broncos, then beating the cowboys. Then we play the cards in the wildcard game and get to upset them again. They say its two flukes in one year, but i think the 49ers just know how to beat that team.
by hellaninersfan on Dec 15, 2009 4:05 PM PST up reply actions
It could
But I’m still fingers-crossed hopeful that AZ stumbles into Detroit, finds themselves in a close 4th quarter game and loses their third straight road game on a Jason Hanson FG. Niners win in Philly rains pressure upon the AZ franchise. I then see Philly beating Denver and Dallas to go 11-5 with AZ either choking away the division at 9-7 or winning it at 10-6 but we get the final WC.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Wow
Coud you imagine a 9ers/Cards first round playoff game? That would be so intense Joe Buck’s head would probably implode
by Smithisstilltheanswer on Dec 15, 2009 5:39 PM PST up reply actions
Fox would decline and give it to ABC on Saturday
Buck and Aikman would then take the GB at Philly/Dallas game since, per rule, they must do an NFC East game. Otherwise Aikman and Buck throw a fit in protest.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Depends
They would lose the division to Dallas unless NY won out and finished ahead of Philly. At 9-7 they would likely tie the Niners, losing the WC on head to head. They win any tie breaker with NY based on sweeping them.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Honestly, this is all for not is we cannot knock off Philly…in Philly. If we do somehow manage to knock off the Eagles, though…things get mighty intriguing.
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
all for naught
as in zero.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Yeah I dont see it
No way we beat Philly and Arizona loses to BOTH Detroit and St Louis
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
SCIENCE
That should be one of the Lions or Rams
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
SCIENCE
One could...
… hope that the 49ers crushed the Cardinals’ spirits!
PLAYOFFS!
If the 49ers steal the wild card, mostly likely they would be facing the Eagles again (95 percent chance), that’s tough, but oh well.
Christian E Davila
Do we need Atlanta to Lose?
On the NFL network last night they were showing the current playoff standings in AFC with Jacksonville being above Baltimore, Miami, and NY Jets.
They explained even though Miami had beat Jacksonville when there are multiple teams tied outside of a division and every team has not played all the other teams it defaults to Conference record so right now Jacksonville would be in the wild card even though they lost to Miami based on all these teams being tied.
Would this be the same for us. Say Atlanta NY Giants and Dallas all finished 9-7 would we get it based on Conference Record? Both NY and Dal have beat Atlanta Atlanta has beat us but we haven’t played NY and Dal.
You do need ATL to lose one...
And the best bet for that is when the Falcons play the Jets at the Meadowlands. After that they play Buffalo and Tampa at home. Buffalo might, possibly, be able to beat the Falcons. I don’t see how Tampa manages to do it. So hope for the Jets to win next weekend.
I did my own looking :) We do NOT need Atl to lose
Three or More Clubs
1.Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2.Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
So since there isn’t a Head-to-head sweep we would have tie breaker over Falcons based on Conference record as long as one other team was tied with us.
More good news for the Niners :)
by snowweasel30 on Dec 15, 2009 5:46 PM PST up reply actions
If ATL losses
It at least eliminates the 2 team tie breaker in the Falcons favor. If the Giants and Cowboys both collapse leaving the 49ers and Falcons at 9-7 than we are screwed. If either the Giants and Eagles can finish at 9-7 with the 49ers and Falcons than it’s peachy.
clarifies a lotbutbut what really is our chance of beating Philadephia?
I want winners! I want people that WANT to win!
Pretty good I think
Both these teams are a bit schizophrenic. If the Eagles team that played the Raiders shows up we can beat them easily.
If the Niners team that played yesterday shows up we can beat them easily.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Chances don't matter
Doing it matter. How much chance were the Niners give Monday night? Or when they went to Indy or Minnesota? What I feel good about is that the Eagles have been playing very well. McNabb is due for one of his oddball games and Reid is due to make a coaching blunder that hurts his team. This happens to the Eagles like clockwork.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Yea, this is really exciting, this upcoming eagles game is super duper important!
just hope we dont win against the eagles and lose to Detroit or the lambs.
honestly, when you have a stretch in the middle of the season like we did, every game is important. I think we almost had 6 weeks of offseason while we changed everything on offense in the middle of the season, and man is it biting us now.
1 loss and we’re out of it. but if we win out its not like other teams have to completely collapse for us to make it. Although the giants would have to lose 1 more than they should.
by hellaninersfan on Dec 16, 2009 12:25 AM PST up reply actions
Losing to the Vikings does not count as "one more than they should"
Unless, of course, the Vikings have the #2 seed locked up and play Tavaris Jackson heavily or something.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Dec 16, 2009 12:40 AM PST up reply actions
they’d have to lose to carolina or chicago to need to play starters at NY. Farve, if you haven’t heard, is old. He’s already expressed concerns about making it all the way through a playoff bid.
by hellaninersfan on Dec 16, 2009 1:40 AM PST up reply actions
But Favre will start
To keep his streak going. And the game is in Minnesota so I’m sure they’ll want to end the season 8-0 at home.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Check this out...
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=streaks
They’ve got us projected as the 6th seed based on “streak”
by mr. instigator on Dec 16, 2009 12:40 PM PST reply actions
That is Interesting 49ers as 6th seed after losing to Philly
I don’t know that it would necessaily play out that way. I think we need to beat Philly but nice to see someone have us in the playoffs :)
by snowweasel30 on Dec 16, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions
it seems rather unlikely
that Dallas/NY/SF all finish at 8-8.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
I think its very likely
especially look at the remaining schedule based on NYG and DAL opponents.
We just need Vikings to be in it and actually play in Week 17 against the Giants, and hopefully Atlanta doesnt squeeze out at 8-8.
Nice to see 49ers have a chance at even 8-8. Tiebreakers all favor us.
We don't need that..
Just for Dal to lose 2/3, and NYG/ATL to lose 1 each. Totally doable. I just pray we win this week! IF we do..I’m gonna go streaking!
by mr. instigator on Dec 18, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions
I don't see the Cowboys going 0-3.
And I think actually it doesn’t matter if Atlanta finishes 8-8 as long as at least one NFC East team does. They lose all the 3-way tie breakers, they just happen to win a head-to-head with us. For Atlanta to make the playoffs, they need to have the best WC record or be tied ONLY with us!
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
According to NFL Network . . .
The Falcons are in the Wildcard hunt at 6-7 but they exclude the 49ers from consideration.
And the 49ers...
… still have Detriot and St. Louis on the schedule. LOL?
NFL Network sucks
Except when they say nice things about the Niners, then they’re awesome.
by mr. instigator on Dec 16, 2009 5:43 PM PST up reply actions
Falcons have almost no chance
they all 3 way tie breakers, and I think lose heads up to Dal and NY.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Falcons
Since they beat the 49ers they’ve got that tiebreaker. I forget how things interact with multiple teams beating each other.
by David Fucillo on Dec 17, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
unless all the teams played eachother and one team swept them it goes to conference record. If we win out we win that tiebreaker.
by hellaninersfan on Dec 17, 2009 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
could you imagine if we win out
but don’t make the wildcard?
10-6 and miss the playoffs?
by MichaelClutchtree on Dec 16, 2009 5:49 PM PST reply actions
Meh.. I am crazy
we can still go 16-0, yes I am insane crazy
How about this:
play 4 solid quarters against Philly, see if the offensive line can have another good game, keep that pass-rush revved up, and keep on covering and hitting in the secondary. Then we’ll see…
I think..
we can do that. Hopefully we can match up well with them, remember last year we had a 26-17 lead going into the 4th quarter. Then Martz went super pass happy and JTO literally threw the game away. Well Martz and JTO are gone, our D is much improved, and we have some serious weapons in Crabtree, Davis and Gore, not to mention Smith is looking competent. I think we take it 24-23.
by mr. instigator on Dec 17, 2009 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
And don't forget Nolan
Not challenging a third down incomplete pass that was called complete, then challenging a silly call. I think I’m remembering this correctly.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Don't forget Nolan?
Why? I’ve been trying for over a year to forget…
by mr. instigator on Dec 18, 2009 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
Cowboys or Eagles?
I see two possible senarios now in terms of the wild card, since the Cowboys are now 9-5, but I’ll need some clarification.
If the Cowboys loose their next two games, they will also be 9-7, and if we win out we would be as well. However, I am unsure how the tiebreaker would work in that case. Anybody have any ideas?
The other one is that Philidelphia, which has us, the Broncos, and the Cowboys remaining, looses out and finishes 9-7. Cowboys win the division and we win the wildcard based on tiebreaker, which of course depends on tomorrow. We’d also need the cowboys to win at least one more game.
Conference record breaks the tie
Since the Niners and Dallas have not played each other. It’s also the tiebreaker when more than two teams finish with the same record. So the Niners and Cowboys at 9-7 would be just fine, including if NY is also 9-7. Niners would have a better conf record and be the final WC (if AZ wins the division).
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Let's say 49ers win tomorrow. and the Giants, Falcons lose
7-7 49ers
7-7 Giants
6-8 Falcons(likely done)
Cowboys and Eagles 9-5 tied for division and wild card 6th place(assuming the Packers beat the Steelers). Then lets say the Giants lose one more game the rest of the season and end up at 8-8. Eagles and Cowboys lose next week, both being 9-6 and the winner going to the playoffs winning the division in week 17. I could care less who loses that game because we’d probably be 9-7 by the time that game ends.
Eagles(9-6) vs Cowboys(9-6)
1) Cowboys Conf record if they lose that game: 7-5
2) Eagles Conf record if they lose that game: 8-5
3) 49ers Conf record after week 17: 8-5
Thus sending us to the playoffs as the 6th(or 5th seed depending on Green Bay’s)
Hit like Berry, Score like Jerry.
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