Assessing 49ers QB Alex Smith's performance
by David Fucillo on Dec 15, 2009 10:34 AM PST
in San Francisco 49ers News
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PrintIn our recap threads there has been plenty of bits and pieces of discussion about Alex Smith's performance last night against the Arizona Cardinals. Whether the 49ers are able to shock the world and get into the playoffs or not, these remaining few games remain incredibly important in assessing Alex Smith. Smith has certainly shown improvement this season in a variety of areas. At this point I'd say he's just about earned the right to be the clear-cut #1 guy heading into training camp next season. At the same time, he still faces some of the problems of the past. Given some of those issues, these remaining three games will certainly be significant in the final assessment of Smith.
Last night's game provided that very mix of good and bad from Smith. The team won and he threw a pair of touchdown passes. Good times. Of course, if you watched the game, it was certainly not a pretty performance. As has been mentioned repeatedly, Smith overthrew several open receivers. The Crabtree touchdown would seem to be a lot more Crabtree than Smith. There definitely remain some chemistry issues to be worked out in the offseason.
Of course, who am I to complain coming off such a huge win? I guess the question is whether last night changed your perception of Smith for better or worse? I don't imagine there were huge changes of opinion just based on last night (if you like Smith you still like him, if you dislike him you still dislike him). But given that we're trying to figure out if he's a long term option, or if he's, as Tom Jackson said (approximately), the quarterback of the short term, I'm curious how opinions are maneuvering along.
Many would argue this was just a poor statistical performance that Smith was able to overcome to help get the 49ers a victory. The 49ers have been up and down all year in just about every aspect of the game, so I guess it's not so surprising that this was a week where the defense and Frank Gore were the ones to step up and carry the team.
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They led the team
But it really was a team win. Even Alex made some important throws, leading us to a TD in the 2-min drill and helping to run out the clock for most of the 4th quarter.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Yup
I don’t think we had a single 3 and out all game. Our 3rd down conversion rate was 50%. It was an impressive performance all the way around I think.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
dude you could have looked it up
first drive of the 2nd have – a zero yard 3-and-out.
Also the FG drive in the first quarter was 3 plays 8 yards and a FG from the ARZ 28. That’s essentially a 3-and-out.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
You can't count a scoring drive as a 3 and out
Good grief.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
sure you can.
3-and-out: 3 plays and a kick.
The only reason that was a scoring “drive” was that they started on the 28 of Arizona! Nedney could have just kicked a 45 yarder on 1st down!
I am sure that the Arizona defense felt holding the Niners to a FG in that situation was a success.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
alex smith
by the numbers and by his win loss total should this guy even be thought of as a starting qb?
Considering what a team sport football is, does it really make sense to pin the team’s record entirely on the quarterback? If the defense falls apart against certain teams, it’s not typically because the quarterback can’t rush the passer.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
but
the QB IS the focal point. i can think of only 1 superbowl team to win with a bad QB and that was baltimore. (oh trent dilfer)
by srill waiting on Dec 15, 2009 10:47 AM PST up reply actions
I hate when people say this
Dilfer was a good quarterback. He’s not the prototypical QB that leads his team to victory like Peyton Manning, but he was no where near a BAD QB
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 15, 2009 10:49 AM PST up reply actions
He’s what I might call liminal.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
a super bowl...better
it’s just like saying patrick willis isn’t awesome because he’s never had more than 4 sacks…QB pressure isn’t his job. Passing wasn’t Dilfer’s job.
Baltimore had a D good enough to stop their opponents, and Dilfer wouldn’t put them in bad situations by throwing balls he otherwise shouldn’t have.
so let’s use him as a comparison then.
Is having a guy like trent dilfer going to win us a superbowl. i think we had that guy start the year for us and look where he is now. the point should be that alex IS BETTER than a dilfer and has got to start proving it.
by srill waiting on Dec 15, 2009 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
agreed
Shaun Hill is a better piece when paired with this D- but not the better athlete- I would still call him a better QB because of his record with this team.
Alex was the best QB to shed some light on what Crab and Vern can do- he’s still not playing within his role though. However, his abilities tip the scales a little bit, and make him the answer going forward.
Accuracy
Alex Smith is not and never will be an accurate QB and that alone makes him no better than a backup for any quality team..If the 49ers hope to be a playoff team, you need an accurate QB, period, and AS is not the guy..
He has a 60.9% completion rate this year. That’s better than Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, David Garrard, and Matt Ryan.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
THAT’S LIKE… A LOT!!!
If I may use an anecdote to prove how awful of a passer he is by pointing to a specific play or two, I’ll have all the evidence I need to make my case! Mua-hahahaha!!!
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
Don’t forget to mention Tom Brady or Joe Montana at least once.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:08 PM PST up reply actions
and Ryan Leaf
And throw in Hitler, for good measure, just to really solidify your point.
“As he was getting hit, this Hitler of a QB Ryan Leaf’d the ball to the defense! That was a play Montana or Brady could have made! It’s so simple!”
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
That defense went through the O-line
like Hitler’s troops through the Maginot line, causing Alex Smith to throw the ball like Ryan Leaf. I’m sure Tom Brady could’ve made that throw and Joe Montana would’ve simply willed the ball to his receiver’s hands.
Alex really needs to work on his telekinesis.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Even Hitler had a higher completion percentage, didn't he?
And besides, that was back in the forties. Different era.
by Bob In Beaverton on Dec 15, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
Ok, 2nd times a charm . . . here is my Hitler recap
Hitler ran the spread offense: heavy aerial with a potent yard churning ground attack.
Had very good initial success beating Austria, Poland, France and convincing Italy to join the cause.
Things started to change when bad weather prevented Hitler from defeating Russia with the aerial, it became a ground game and Russia held him to a stalemate.
Hitlers other costly error was not finishing England. The aerial attack worked to perfection building a huge lead. However, Hitler refused to turn to the ground game to finish off the Brits allowing them to sneak back into the game and eventually steal victory.
Hitler was ultimately defeated when Uncle Sam unveiled his own spread offense with a better running attack and stronger defense. If it wasn’t for letting those early games slip away from England and Russia, those damn meddling kids! Hitler had a good completion percentage, ultimately he lost to bad game management in crucial situations.
So why aren’t we talking about Alex Smith?
by bignerd on Dec 15, 2009 1:01 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Nice...
As a History teacher and a 9er fan…well done. Just to add…Coach Hitler’s doctor was shooting him up with Amphedamines several times a day, leading him to be cocky and dilusional and to think his ground game alone would work in Russia. Hmmm… sounds familer…
PS- Coach Hitler’s aerial game in England was not successful enough to bring in the ground game because England had a great new scouting technique: RADAR
No, actually...
he only misses about 10%. The other 29.1% of passes are dropped by VD.
If Bochy coached the Warriors Bengie Molina would start every game at PG.
by cybermaldonado on Dec 15, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
More QB's Better
There are over 50% of the QB’s in the league with a better percentage..Also most of his passes are short passes compared to the QB’s you mentioned..Check out his per catch average..If you think Alex Smith is an accurate QB and throws a good catchable ball, then you and I are seeing different things out there on the field..
Oh, I know that even being ahead of those guys, he’s got a worse completion percentage than most. I was cherry picking. La la. Pretty cherries. Still, when you see the names that I listed, and then see Alex Smith on top of them, it says something about where he is right now with regard to that specific skill.
However:
Also most of his passes are short passes compared to the QB’s you mentioned.
I don’t think that’s true. We seem to be taking quite a few shots downfield lately. I don’t think we’re getting many receptions downfield, but we’re definitely taking shots.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:14 PM PST up reply actions
And take out all of those drops....
that were actually good passes and should have been caught, jacks that percentage right on up :)
by sanfranfanmdk on Dec 15, 2009 7:10 PM PST up reply actions
What are you talking about?
How is he inaccurate? He’s been inconsistent, at times, with his accuracy, but not predominantly inaccurate.
This is an accurate statement
He is inconsistent.
But, he is amazingly accurate with some of his throws especially down the middle. How many times has he thrown a 20 yard laser that targets precisely on VD’s head?
If Bochy coached the Warriors Bengie Molina would start every game at PG.
by cybermaldonado on Dec 15, 2009 2:37 PM PST up reply actions
Still not sure where this idea comes from...
I don’t think distant history is relevant so lets look at recent. Smith has a higher completion % and has a TD/INT of 15/9 this year. Hill has 5/2 this year which is slightly better, but a smaller sample. Last year he had 13/8 for a total of 18/10 which is roughly the same as Smith. So where is the proof of Hill’s better efficiency and ball security? And if Smith is considered inaccurate then I suppose Hill is as well? And this is purely opinion, but there have been alot of drops in the last 3-4 games which doesn’t help.
And this year, Hill’s completion percentage was 56.1%. So, yeah.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
alot of throwing the ball away
which is good- because he knew he didn’t have the arm to force balls to the WRs.
Hill
is less accurate than Smith. Guy has no arm, that’s why you don’t see him throwing 40 passes a game. Which is why he’s more efficient than Smith. Our team is better off when we don’t turn the ball over in a short field. Hill very rarely makes bad passes when he’s deep in enemy territory. It’s something Alex is learning. I would like to know how many of Alex’s int’s were converted by the other team’s offense. And, any time our defense has to suck up points, it comes at the cost of their momentum and confidence. Hill put our D in better position to help the 49ers win games. Our Defense is our best unit. it makes sense.
But, Dilfer won games. So all the people saying that Smith is a bad QB because of his record must support the fact that Dilfer was a great QB (even a Super Bowl). If they don’t, then they need to go sit in the corner with the rest of the hypocrites and quit wasting all the honest peoples time.
If Bochy coached the Warriors Bengie Molina would start every game at PG.
by cybermaldonado on Dec 15, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions
thank you for the riveting & convincing argument.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 15, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
Superowl teams are such because they have few if any holes in their roster.
The ravens happened to have their weakest link at QB. How many superbowl teams have had bad Taclkes, or HB’s?
I was "Deific16"
The cake is a lie.
by Sultan of Seitan on Dec 15, 2009 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
Hostetler..
Rypien, who had one great year sourrounded by two okay years. And Brad Johnson.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
lets think
we dont just sometimes lose we lose often and have not been in the playoffs since forever so its not like the just have lost few games here
We;ve been over it before, you know
I’ll always go back to the Rams game earlier this season as my favorite example. The 49ers won 35-0. Special teams scored the only touchdown of the first half. The defense scored two touchdowns, and the offense scored two touchdowns. AND the defense pitched a shutout.
How do we look at this game and say, “Boy, Shaun Hill won us this game!”
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
you're right
Shaun Hill didn’t win, but having him in the lineup dictated to a philosophy that suits our team.
The Alex Smith philosophy is one of high risk / high reward.
This is just my opinion but I think the Alex Smith philosophy would put up more than 14 points against the Rams.
I want me some Buster
i agree with this
"The Football The 49ers Team has The excitement of the bear, the velocity of the deer and strenght of the buffalo.
also, we'll see soon enough
"The Football The 49ers Team has The excitement of the bear, the velocity of the deer and strenght of the buffalo.
Someone was paying attention
You must have been listening to Sing’s interview with Murph and Mac last week. No, it doesn’t make sense to pin a team’s record entirely on the QB. He doesn’t rush the ball 25 times a game, he doesn’t catch his passes (he did last night, though), doesn’t normally intercept passes, force fumbles, etc. The TEAM’s record is pinned on the TEAM.
He made some ill-advised throws (why did he seem to be so in love with Delanie Walker?), was off target on a number of them, but the bottom line, he made it count when he was supposed to! He’s not on this level yet, but at some point, haven’t we seen this performance description with just about every great NFL QB in history?
To sum it up:
He made a few good throws when it mattered, and made twice as many bad throws when it wasn’t crucial.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 15, 2009 10:48 AM PST reply actions
alex
he stunk and won a game i could have nothing special not even college kid would be needed to win that game just a guy off the street
That’s ridiculous.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
Seriously...
your syntax in in the sentance was terrible.
by Smithisstilltheanswer on Dec 15, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
Actually, a few periods and one article, and it’s entirely legible.
He stunk and won a game I could have. Nothing special. Not even [a] college kid would be needed to win that game. Just a guy off the street.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
No argument.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
Hey man...
it just makes it easier to read.
by Smithisstilltheanswer on Dec 15, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
Grammar is communication. There’s really nothing more to it than that.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Pepoples shloud alywsa us spel cheker n bolggss
Bda , ; grmmar, ’isis horrorbel
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
Or use a browser like Firefox or Chrome
that automatically does it for you.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Spelling does not equal grammar.
That’s like the fifth time I’ve had to say this today.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions
Correct...
… spelling at least makes the grammar mistakes less obvious.
Don't you mean?
kelsey grammer reely ’n a blog wow
u guys r =(
Win the inning.
by Scooter Ellis on Dec 15, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions
There comes a point where we can’t even figure out what you are trying to say. That’s when grammar matters.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 15, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
This link has a lot to say on the issue.
I find this bit particularly useful:
Fuzzy words reflect fuzzy thoughts.
Remember that language is thought: even speaking only to ourselves in our own minds, we use words—the reason we can typically only remember back to age 3 or so is because that is when we typically acquire language. So when we express our thoughts in language that is sloppy, it suggests that those very thoughts are sloppy.
Anyone can make the occasional technical mistake—though grammar and usage both are a good deal more logical than some think—but fundamental errors of conception, such as singular verbs with plural subjects or vice-versa, show a less than firm grasp on the matters being spoken of.
This also:
I have never understood why some people are proud of their bad grammar.
It really is one of the only things in the world that people are proud of themselves for being terrible at.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 11:17 AM PST up reply actions 5 recs
Interesting:
A little like Middle School students who are proud of getting poor grades, for some an "F" in English is something to brag about.
Totally rec'd
I can understand the odd typo now and then—everybody gets carried away sometimes. To have consistently poor grammar just irks me to no end.
My wife hates it because I’m always pointing out poor grammar in printed material.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
Hmmm...
I think that’s body paint.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions
Just covering her belly button….
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
That too.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions
stream of consciousness
its clearly cormac mccarthy posting from his new mexico cabin duh
Agreed
I don’t think Smith played THAT bad. The TD throw to VD was nice, the pass to Crabs was thrown out in front a little and sure there were some over throws. But this could all be based on the fact that Smith is STILL learning the offense and needs more time to develop chemistry with the receivers. The first INT wasn’t his fault as the pass was batted at the line, the second one though was a bad decision. I’ll say this: Right now? i’d rather have Smith then Cutler.
by Smithisstilltheanswer on Dec 15, 2009 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
To add to your points
We don’t know how often a pass that appears to be poorly located is actually the fault of the receiver for misreading the coverage, running the wrong route or running his route poorly. Or perhaps just great defense. It’s not all on the QB and the receivers, just like Alex, are learning some of this more spread offense on the fly.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Relative
Are you a relative of Smith’s?? I have never seen anyone defend a mediocre player like you do..
Speaking for myself
I feel like I need to defend Smith against retarded logic.
I never understood the Smith haters..
It’s one thing to say you don’t like the guy, but to asses his career and label him a bust is just boneheadedness (word?)
by Smithisstilltheanswer on Dec 15, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
well, can we label
that pic of Rogue a ‘bust’?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
I should have picked a better picture.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 9:09 PM PST up reply actions
One thing I haven’t seen discussed is the large number of tipped passes last night. Do you think it was the size/talent of the Cardinal’s defensive line, or are there other factors in play? Is Smith telegraphing passes? Do his passes have a lower-than-normal trajectory?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 15, 2009 10:50 AM PST reply actions
Holy crap, Dockett is in-frickin’-sane.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
I'll have to rewatch it
but I was under the impression that those tipped balls came from under center. My impression has been that Alex throws flatter and harder when he’s throwing from under center as opposed to being in the shotgun.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
That's what I noticed as well...
I thought it might have been because the pocket was collapsing more quickly then when he was under center, but it might be his throwing technique.
Could it be
That some of this comes from playing a division opponent and knowing more of their tendencies? Seems the Niners linemen knocked down some of Warner’s passes last night and in the opener. I wonder how much familiarity plays a part.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Yeah
As bad as the Cards played, it was ALSO a division game. They know Alex Smith, and they have some really great players. It was always going to a hard fought game.
Same goes for us too
I knew it wouldn’t be a pushover simply because it’s a division game and we always play the Cards tough. Just didn’t expect the performance we had.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Which is why I couldn't understand some of the pre-game analysis
The idea that the Niners would get rolled. Fitz and Boldin would domiante a “weak” secondary. Seems most predictions (outside of NN) had the Cards winning and doing so by double digits. I kept thinking, do these people do any research?
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
mike ditka
is the lou holtz of the NFL. A mumbling bag of cliches.
“Ya gotta hit em in the mouth, and play to win!”
lol I know someone else who says those things.............................................................................
"The Football The 49ers Team has The excitement of the bear, the velocity of the deer and strenght of the buffalo.
Here's hoping...
I hope that i don’t come across that i don’t want alex around. I do. i just have got to see him get more in sync with the guys catching the ball. he just seems to throw the ball soooo hard on short passes and they’re off target. on crabs td catch if he wasn’t so athletic that ball would never have been caught. he needs to put some “touch” on the ball.
I can't express
how excited I am to see more Ahmed Brooks. That dude is a MONSTER!
by Smithisstilltheanswer on Dec 15, 2009 10:54 AM PST reply actions
long time reader, first time poster
Love the site, guys. Kudos.
I was disappointed in Smith’s performance, but I’ve never thought of him as a bad quarterback. His numbers weren’t great in this game, not at all, but even though the Cards crapped the bed, some of them came to play. Dockett and Wilson made a few pretty impressive plays that brought Alex’s numbers down. I realize that the Cards have one of the leagues less impressive pass defenses, but they have some quality players as well.
His numbers, if you take away the sorta flukey Dockett interception, a few drops, and factor in some of Wilsons GREAT plays, would have been the numbers of someone who managed the game well and made a few good throws too boot.
Then again, a few of his tosses looked really bad.
by dutra on Dec 15, 2009 10:55 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
+1
For the drops. VD had two drops in the first drive! I’m gonna need him to focus more.
by Smithisstilltheanswer on Dec 15, 2009 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
under center
If the guy can become a complete QB…i.e. being able to throw out of an I or Pro formation, he could be very dangerous with this team. he’s got a quick release, and is compact. Once he gets his isht figured out when it comes to throwing over and around big men, we could have a formidable offense. right now, it’s one or the other…either we’re a run run run team or a raye-gun passing team. Last night we showed that we can be impossibly good if we can get the ball into the hands of our athletes.
um not really.
unless you mean that he teetered on the brink of bustdom. At this point, he still, obviously, has the potential to be an above average quaterback in this league.
Is Reggie Bush a bust? He’s not really a franchise player, yet he went #2.
neither
are busts. some players take a while to develop. bush is thriving in his current situation…a weapon among weapons.
dude
i dont know how you spend your money but paying 40-50 million to get noting is a bust and you shouldnt have to wait until your second contract to get results and reggie bush is over rated and is a bust for what he expectations were and his paycheck
Im sure
The saints don’t mind those royalties on jersey sales. and the wins…has bush played in a losing season there?
Ryan Leaf is a bust. Laurence Phillips is a bust.
Reggie Bush is not a bust.
About 3700 all purpose yards and 28 touchdowns in 3 and a half years (27 games, to be more accurate). Not bad at all.
I’d extrapolate that to reflect what it would look like if he didn’t miss time, but I already made fun of extrapolation once today.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
27 games is wrong. Sorry. 49 games. 27 started, not including this year. PRF.com is weird.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions
yeah
to mdeasy, my point was not that Reggie is a bust, but that just because players don’t become the next Marshall Faulk or Joe Montana right out of the gates doesn’t mean that they’re busts. Basic productivity, longevity, and helping a team improve have value.
Alex Smith is not a bust. Not yet. I guess some people have different definitions of that term, though.
Even Montana
wasn’t Montana “out of the gates.” I remain doubtful that Smith will ever be the premier quarterback that would justify his draft position. But I have no doubt he’s making strides. He is good enough to be the 49ers’ QB until a better alternative shows up. That’s more than I would have said 6 weeks ago.
We'll see them again in the playoffs! What channel is it on?
Montana played sparingly for two seasons before becoming the starter. He wasn’t a success right out of the gates.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
Not my point...
I meant to say that Smith, or any player, shouldn’t be judged because they haven’t shown themselves to be a clear Hall of Famer right out of the gate.
We were spoiled with Montana, Young, and to a lesser extent Garcia for the better part of two decades. The former two were perennially in the argument for best QB in the nation, and the latter actually put up better statistics at one point, than those two HoF shoe-ins.
Now we’re dealing with what the majority of the NFL normally has to deal with: flawed, talented individuals who are good enough to hold on too, but not good enough to stifle all debate.
and he is paid like a everydown back he is a great back up but 9 million and to be at most a utility back your not a number 2 pick worthy
I was just putting the numbers out there so you guys could argue better. I’m not stating any opinion on this one.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
Not sure what to make of him still
Not trying to make excuses, but his 1st year he looked like a rookie on a horrible team, no suprise.
His 2nd year he looked to be improved and steadily improving.
Year 3 before the shoulder he looked to be continuing the progress even with a crap OC. After the injury he was frankly broken.
Year 4, still broken.
Year 5: He looks like a reasonable NFL QB, around average, which means half the teams would see him as an upgrade.
It’s going to take this off season and next year to really see what his ceiling is.
by Dave R. on Dec 15, 2009 11:14 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
this is the best situation he's been in
and he’ll have an offseason to work with what they’ve learned this year.
if he can’t improve over the course of the next year, I think we’ll see a change following ’10 season.
Wow!!!
Someone with common sense, I love it!! (As much as people will hate reading this) Jimmy Raye, unlike the three OC’s before him, in all likelihood will be here next season. Being that Jimmy appears to be figuring out what will make this offense tick, let’s see next season if Alex starts putting the stats AND the wins together. If he doesn’t, then we talk about a change!
raye has a lot to work with
despite our losing season, he’s tried a variety of approaches. i just hope he brings it all together to create an offense that will control the clock and play to our strength…our defense.
Smith
Alex has only played half a season with the starting players.I said after the Houston game that they should use Alex in the spread formation just as they use Peyton Manning.One blogger replied “Alex ain’t no Peyton Manning”,I said “I didn’t say Alex was Peyton but that they should use him at the spread.”Anyways I love this offense.Alex needs to stay healthy and continue playing with the 1st string offense so he can get the chemistry right!There were some bad throws by Smith that Smith has to get them right.The more he plays the better he will get.Still need to add better protection for Smith.
by Smallville49er on Dec 15, 2009 11:00 AM PST reply actions
Smith wasn't as bad as Warner was..
Warner was a full on mess last night. He might still be hurting a bit, and the 49er defense terrorized him.
Smith has a loooooooong way to go in his development. The 49ers should bring in a nother QB into the roster next season, and they should be diligent in addressing the QB’s into a system they don’t have to tweak and change during the season due to the QB’s.
Well, we're waiting....
I have a feeling next year Nate could be able to step in for Alex without needing an offensive philosophy change.
what's that based on?
For me, this season has hammered home how important training camp, schematic continuity, and familiarity with the playbook are.
There is NO way I would rush Davis into starting.
He's also come a long ways...
Considering a total overhaul in the offense occuring midseason without a training camp to install a playbook, work out timing issues, and develop a rapport between the QB and the WR/TE corps – this could have been a complete disaster, which it hasn’t been. The 49ers went from a team that was 65/35 run/pass split to a 75/25 pass/run split. That’s a complete inversion of the playbook.
Alex Smith is playing much better football right now than he has at any other point. I think you keep Smith and Raye and spend the rest of the season and the next off season getting the offense set up correctly from the get go.
One the the 49ers cannot afford to do..
Is become complacent when it comes to the QB position. That’s what did Nolan in. Smith has always adjusted to various playbooks and schemes. Despite the passing ratio and numbers, it’s still a pretty limited offense, and that’s because Smith is still a pretty limited QB. The reasons are mechanics and vision. It’s harder to put in new wrinkles in an offense when your QB is that far behind in basics.
I’m not knocking Smith. All he ever did was do what his coaches told him to do. But he really needs more coaching to become a more complete QB. I just think the 49ers should always have options if he doesn’t put it all together soon
Well, we're waiting....
I do agree
Alex still needs work. I also think that this offense we’re running now is almost completely different than the one we started the season with. It’s hard to re-write your playbook in mid-season.
I wouldn’t be opposed to picking up another QB in the later rounds of the draft.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
One thing that worries me..
Is Raye, and his recent track record. His offenses tend to regress in areas, and he usually gets canned after his second year. Of course, he has been on some bad teams, but to be successful on offense, you have to have a system that improves the offense as a whole, and the system has to be consistent. That would help the QB’s adjust to it, rather than trying to adjust an offense to the QB, which is where the 49ers are at right now.
Well, we're waiting....
+1
create a consistent offense > catering to a QB
hopefully in the offseason?
Hopefully
I give Raye credit for revamping the offense mid-season. I think the Seattle game was really well called for the most part (there were only one or two calls I disagreed with), and this game was nearly perfect in play calling as well.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Everywhere I read about Raye..
That isn’t 49er related tells me that he sucks. Especially from fans who had Raye as their OC.
Well, we're waiting....
I hated his play calling for most of the season
just saying he’s called a couple of really good games recently.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Last 2 games were Division games..
So that may have something to do with it, even though he has a couple of new players since.
Well, we're waiting....
That's assuming the 49ers properly developed him the first time
Which they didn’t. You can’t develop a 20 year old QB coming out of a spread heavy Urban Meyer offense to the NFL by having what Jaws dubbed last night as “The Offensive Coordinator of the Month Club.” You just can’t do it.
Well that's obvious..
But the 49ers are past that now. They can’t afford to continue trying to shoehorn limited QB’s into an offense, and have to compensate for said QB’s limitations.
Well, we're waiting....
How are they past that now?
I won’t renege on this statement: Next season, the 49ers will be “past that.”
The only sane approach, from a football perspective, is to keep Alex Smith where he is. If he has a total meltdown and throws 8 picks and 2 tds, or sustains a season ending injury, then the 49ers are in limbo again. Barring that, you spend the rest of this season building continuity and chemistry (and momentum), and then you knuckle down in the off season.
That’s the bed the front office has made. They have to sleep in it. Starting over at QB would be foolish right now.
I'm not predicting that Smith will be the answer at QB
I’m saying that the only way forward, at this point, is with him starting. There’s no immediate solution in the draft, and nobody on the market that I can think of (also, I have no idea of next years FA QB class… Vick?) that solves all of our problems.
They're past..
The “Smith’s Poor Development” issue. What they can’t afford to do is focus solely on Smith, and hurt the other QB’s on the roster development process. Sooner or later a QBOTF has to emerge, and if it isn’t Smith, then it’s someone they developed from the beginning, or a Vet QB that isn’t in his last years or has limitations like Shaun Hill.
Well, we're waiting....
I don't buy that Smith is done developing
To assume that would be to assume his performance potential has reached a ceiling. His performance against the Cardinals was a regression from his performance against the Seahawks but is a significant improvement over his standard performance from the 06 and 07 season. His mechanics have significantly improved, his accuracy has significantly improved and his pocket presence has significantly improved.
I think spending the off season and training camp working out the kinks of the shotgun spread (Raye-Gun) offense fixes most of what ails the 49ers passing game. We’ve seen lots of dropped passes, missed timings, poorly run routes and miscommunications – that’s what is going to happen when you don’t have months to iron a system out. These things are going to happen when you put in a new QB, rookie receiver and overhaul the playbook midseason.
What we have seen so far indicates there is a significant amount of promise from the offense that is hurt by easily corrected execution mistakes.
I don't think..
I’ve posted anything to indicate he was done developing. I think I’ve been harping that he needs a lot more coaching to become a more complete QB. I’m also saying that all the other QB’s on the roster should not be ignored, and learn more than a limited shotgun offense.
Well, we're waiting....
I think everyone would agree to a point...
- You want your starting QB to take snaps during practice to build and improve on that rapport between the catchers and the throwers. So that naturally limits the amount of exposure your back-ups get in practice with the starters.
- But, everyone would like to see a larger playbook. I’d like to see slants, curls, and lots more pass play variety. I’d also like to see the 49ers draft one or two more high quality receivers so defenses can’t just sit on Crabtree and Davis. I like Golden Tate and Jordan Shipley but that’s just me.
- I don’t think anyone would make the assertion that Alex Smith couldn’t use more coaching. He could.
I agree with that..
But, the 49ers problems on offense stemmed from Nolan ditching his first offense, the WCO, in year 1. If you bring in an offense in year 1, you run it in year 3. Second, he started Smith way too early, and ditched the WCO for a more favorable offense for Smith. He then backed Smith with Dilfer solely as a mentor. We all know what happened in 2007, and then 2008. Smith played only 7 games in those 2 years. The 49er offense wasn’t the same as in year 1. The QB’s under Smith were limited to horrid. It was all Alex Smith, or not.
If the 49ers haven’t learned from that, then they will continue to have problems at QB. You can’t just keep tailoring an offense due to Smith. You have to install a system that develops ALL of the QB’s, and stick with that system regardless if Smith get’s it or not.
Well, we're waiting....
The problems in 2005 were numerous...
- It took Joe Montana three years to get adjusted to the West Coast offense. You can’t expect someone who just came out of a college that uses the spread to just pick up the West Coast offense (and all of its complexities) overnight. It just can’t happen.
- Actually the first mistake was installing an offensive system he didn’t have the personnel for. San Francisco didn’t have any quality WR’s or TE’s or RB’s at that time, combine that with a young/inexperienced QB trying to execute the WCO and you’ll get a disaster.
- The smart thing to have done would have been to bring Jeff Garcia back to San Francisco and have Alex Smith sit behind him with a clipboard for a year or two.
- Smith was started way before he was ready, didn’t have a HC that supported him, and the end result was a shattered shoulder and shattered self confidence.
Those were just the problems in 2005. You argue that you should develop a system that develops all of your QB’s regardless of whether or not Smith get’s that system. I would argue that’s what got the 49ers into the mess in the first place. You need to be able to tailor your system for your talents. Smith is more comfortable in the gun. Gore had success running out of the spread shotgun formation last night. So figure out how to maximize your time and effectiveness in that type of system, and it will probably take an off season and a training camp to get the kinks ironed out.
After all, Bill Walsh’s West Coast Offense was a concession to the fact he had a QB who was really smart but didn’t have a great arm combined with a couple of really good receivers. He built what became the West Coast offense to fit those perimeters.
If you bring in an offense..
in year one, you build the rest of the offense for that scheme. You draft accordingly, and you have an established Vet QB who understands it. In other words, you have a plan, and you stick with it. Is isn’t all about Smith. Whether he pans out or not, you don’t build it all solely around him. Smith isn’t that good to do that with. Despite these past few games, ScotM is still not sure of Smith until he sees how he plays the rest of the season. That’s being smart, and going forward. But this current offense as it stands is limited. Part of it is O-line, part of it is Smith, but it all stems to they having to adjust because of the lack of cohesion due to so many changes prior, all of which indicates a lack of a true plan. Walsh adapted his system due to his QB, but Walsh was a genius who knew all of the aspects of the game and built not only a Championship team, but also an entire Organization that bred almost 2 decades of success. Yet he still knew that he had to get a Steve Young despite having Joe Montana. He wasn’t complacent in the QB area, and even guys like Bono, Grbac, and even Brohm could function well in his system he built.
Again, sooner or later, a QBOTF has to emerge, but that’s predicated on the 49ers having a true plan on offense for the future, and not predicated on hoping Smith turning a corner.
Well, we're waiting....
The Revolving Door prevented that...
Hopefully having stability, for the first time in almost a decade, at the OC position and QB position, will allow for the development of that system. You can’t develop a system if you’re changing OC’s and QB’s every year. Consistency is key to the development of the system you want.
Well, that why I worry about Raye..
The consistency in his career as of late was more failure than success. He never established much because he usually got canned after 2 years or so.
Well, we're waiting....
I think what has surprised me more than anything this year is how good the defensive line is. How many years has it been since we’ve seen anything resembling pressure on an opposing quarterback? I love it!
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 15, 2009 11:10 AM PST reply actions
Ahmad Brooks!
His development has been awesome. He will affect how we draft, for sure.
agree
the last few games have been worth noting. brooks and smith get great pressure
by srill waiting on Dec 15, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
As somebody who is so very critical of Alex Smith, I don’t know why you would be even a little bit interested in Tim “Spread ’Em” Tebow.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
Seriously? Why does anyone want tebow? We don’t run the wildcat. lol
49ers Al Grito De Guerra!!! hahaha
by 49erSalvatrucha on Dec 15, 2009 12:36 PM PST up reply actions
why?
dont we already have a good young backup? if anything, we need a veteran backup to bring some wisdom to Alex/Nate
just a ?
not really a fan of tebow but it has been said he will drop and for a value pick just curious on the interest level if any
I don't think so
I don’t think the Niners are interested in starting another project at this point. In recent history, QB’s that are highly touted out of college tend to end up having lackluster careers. I mean, they’re pulling teeth trying to find greatness with the current QB and only because the OC will be around more than a year will we know for sure if there is any true success.
smith is still too inconsistant
that’s always been my major beef with him. Though I said it last night and I’ll say it again, he took good command of the offense and lead us to the win on the offensive side.
To lead.
Past tense: led.
I know it sounds like I’m being a jerk, but think of it this way: I’m saving you keystrokes. And that makes you more energy efficient.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 11:31 AM PST up reply actions
The battle lines will be drawn...
Let it be known, now, that I will line up on the side of Team Grammar.
To be fair, that’s a spelling error, not a grammar error.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 11:39 AM PST up reply actions
So how come
you ignored “inconsistant”?
We'll see them again in the playoffs! What channel is it on?
Because it’s an honest typo, and people make typos. “Lead” is actually a different word altogether. As a verb, it serves a different function. As a noun, it means something completely separate. Inconsistant doesn’t have those distinctions.
It’s like when mdeasy said “weather” instead of “whether.” That bothered me. I didn’t point it out because I’ve already hit my spelling jerk quota for today (and there were bigger fish to fry with that particular comment anyway)… but it bothered me.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions
I actually much, much prefer my fish to be near-raw. So the fried fish was only okay.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
There are really only a small number of things that compel me to fix somebody (notice I didn’t blink at “inconsistant”). Lead/led is one of them, only because lead is a metal – not a past tense verb.
Could care less is another, only because it’s stupid.
There are a few more.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 11:39 AM PST up reply actions
Apostrophes in the wrong place is a big one of mine
and here, here instead of hear, hear. Also the inability of people to correctly use they’re, their, and there.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
I he’re that.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
While you’re on the subject of grammar:
A brief mention of then vs. than and seems appropriate. They are constantly used incorrectly and it drives me crazy.
Maybe he was trying to say
that Alex’s balls came out like a lump of lead?
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Interesting interpretation.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
Actually
I think a lot of them appeared to float, or at least he was throwing too far ahead of the receivers.
I didn’t see a lot of floaters. I saw a few bad reads, a few plays where he was clearly not on the same page as crabtree (not exactly a shocker), and a few over-leads.
I didn't see many floaters either
if anything he had too much zip on them.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Something we haven't seen often
Alex threw that INT near the end of the 3rd Quarter. At that point I thought to myself, “Here’s where AZ decides to win the game.” Lately at that point we would have seen a growing snowball of mistakes. But in the 2nd to the Niners’ last drive, I saw some good character that we haven’t seen very often if at all. He converted two third downs and kept the clock running, or at least forced the ’Cards to call all three of their timeouts before the two minute warning.
About the INT, that was a negative that must be commented on. Raye still doesn’t seem to be quite convinced that in critical situations (running clock), you can’t decide to throw from a set that Alex clearly hasn’t been comfortable in. Raye didn’t throw the pass, but I would say he was inviting potential disaster by having Alex do something he is proven to not be able to handle well.
Also, Alex is still showing that he could use a lot of work on his reads. He seemed to be enamored with getting the ball to Delanie Walker at times and threw to him when Delanie had no business having the ball anywhere near him.
To be fair it seemed like the other two routes on that side were to clear open that spot but Wilson didn’t follow the receiver across the field. Not completely sure about that though. I also think he just threw it without thinking. The ball shouldn’t have went there and if that was really the only read then he should have thrown it away or run the ball.
I want me some Buster
Well yeah
The guy can do some good things with the ball, but not when he’s got someone all over him.
Not just all over him...
Delanie Walker let Wilson get inside of him on that route. That wasn’t a good decision by Smith, but Walker didn’t exactly hold up his end of the bargain either.
look
alex smith you can say so many things and weather you want to console him through his 5 years of excuses or move on and actually start over fresh with someone who can take snaps from under center and doesnt require so much coddling
Okay, now that one was illegible.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 11:55 AM PST up reply actions
No Alex Smith, He Will Never Be The Answer
I don’t believe that Smith will take us where we need to go as a team..He has never been an accurate QB and that is the least you need to succeed in the NFL..He is not a charismatic leader, he doesn’t have great pocket presence, and he doesn’t make the people around him better..He hasn’t even adjusted to being under center well..
He is a backup at best..
GRM?
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Dec 15, 2009 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
Subject is in Total Title Case.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
Can Be Spotted From A Mile Away.
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Dec 15, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
I can't throw Alex Smith down the river yet
Physically I can’t, I’m still busy tossing Frank Gore down the river. Dragged him all the way to the river bank but he started turning his feet and occasionally this guy named Baas comes by and forearms me in the head.
I think he’s making fun of some of the threads we had over the last week.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
My First Blog Ever
I read 49er blogs all the time, but have never commented until now. Lifelong 9er fan for the past 30 years, and I gotta defend Alex Smith a little bit. I understand we should get more from a number one pick, but he came onto a TERRIBLE team, with no O-line his rookie year and took a beating. Never complained and he never threw anybody else under the bus. He has had a different offense coordinator every year, and was showing a lot of improvement the year Turner was here. He was 2 and 1 when he got hurt early in the seattle game, and he hasn’t started since until late this year, without benefit of practicing all year and pre-season with the first team. He still may well end up sucking, but with a healthy O-line, Singletary and his coaching staff getting better every week, and the young receivers continuing to grow ( too many drops), I think he can be a good QB in this league. We already invested a lot of money in him, he is a hard worker, and deserves having an entire preseason with the first team guys and the new offense and see what happens.
I completely agree...
I have never commented on a 49er blog either but I am shocked at how much people want to run Alex out of town. No, he is not Peyton or Brees but how many teams in the NFL have better QBs than the NIners? I count Indy, NE, SD, Pitt, Philly, and NO…maybe ATL, Houston, Cin, and maybe Dallas…that’s 8 teams out of 32…I would take Alex as the starter vs any of the other QBs of teams not listed.
People are so give praise to the O-line and Gore but where were they in Seattle?
Aaron Rodgers sure is underrated for some reason.
by Chimneyfish on Dec 15, 2009 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
Inconsistency
He’s had an incredible year behind a porous O-line (who have decided to get their act together in the last half of the season).
I think he if he plays at this level next year we can count him among the best QBs in the league.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Rodgers is an excellent QB
But I’d bet that half his sacks this year are his fault not the O-lines. Ive seen him get sacked countless times after holding the ball for 5+ seconds.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Why do you think he is inconsistent? He’s played well in every game this year except for the Tampa Bay loss. The Packers are 9-0 in games where he has been sacked less than six times. Even despite his O-line and sack numbers, he rarely throws interceptions.
I just can’t really believe anybody who says they wouldn’t want Rodgers over Smith. The numbers certainly don’t support that position. And since I know somebody is going to point out that, had the Niners drafted Rodgers, he would have been subjected to the same five different offensive systems that Smith had to work through and would now have been as equally screwed up; the issue that I was replying to was which teams right how has a better QB than the 49ers. Rodgers is clearly much better than Smith.
by Chimneyfish on Dec 15, 2009 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
I find it easier
If I just pretend Aaron Rogers and DeSean Jackson don’t actually exist . . . like my team, completely off my draft board.
Disagree
Cards have Warner who is basically a retread…he is like 50 and has GREAT receivers. I would much rather have Smith over Warner.
Flacco is not better than Smith
Have Atl (maybe) and Houston (maybe)
Eli is good but inconsistent…I give you him as well…that’s 7 for sure and 4 maybe. (Indy, NE, NO, Phi, Pit, Cin, GB, Atl (maybe), Houston (maybe), NYG (maybe), and Dallas (maybe).
Flacco is not better than Smith is a tough call. He might not be better than Smith right now. On the other hand, he clearly outshines Smith already in certain areas.
Beyond that, he’s only in his second year and he’s playing excellent football. I think Flacco is going to be very, very good in the long-term. Better than Ryan.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
Flacco really locks onto his targets at times, but he has such a strong arm he can get by. I’m sure he’ll get better at that, but this year has shown his target lock a lot more then last year
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Dec 15, 2009 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
A lot of young QBs do that, though. He’s really excelling for a second year guy. Has anybody had a better second year than Flacco is having since Peyton?
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
True, but they’re also pretty close in age (I think Smith is about 6 months older), so you can say Smith’s target lock can be sorted out with a bit of maturity as well.
Nothing against Flacco, for a second-year man he’s having a fantastic season.
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Dec 15, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
Agreed.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
Stats...
Smith: 7.5 games, 60.9 percent completion, 1,721 yards, 15 TD and 9 ints
Flacco: 13 GS, 63.4 percent completion, 3,111 yards (with 700 yards against Detroit and Cleveland), 15 TD and 11 ints
Smith has the same number of TD with 6 less games..
Smith prorated stats: (13 gs) would be 26 TD, 15.5 ints, and 2983 yards…more TDs and more Ints and about the same yards.
Smith’s QB rating: 83.3
Flacco’s QB rating: 86.3
Very close, but at the same time, I’d definitely give Flacc’s O-Line the edge over SF’s. He gets much better protection.
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Dec 15, 2009 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
before last night
Flacco +14.8% DVOA
Smith -6.9% DVOA
Smith, to date has played like a barely average QB. But that’s better than “terrible”.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
So Flacco’s rate stats for completion percentage, interceptions thrown, and yards are all better than Smith’s (esp. INT-rate). But Smith’s TD rate is much better. There are a lot of reasons those could be, but I don’t think they make a clear case for Smith over Flacco or vice-versa.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
Smith looks fantastic in the red zone, that might have something to do with it. Take his first TD last night – his first drive, he was missing everyone, but when the defense recovered the fumble in the red zone, his first pass was right on target to VD.
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Dec 15, 2009 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
I think people forget that Alex is 25
He’s only a year older than Flacco. Put Flacco on a team when he was 21 that had about 1/10th the talent that Baltimore has… I understand that Smith had more years in College/NFL, but he also came from a spread and had a different system each year. He’s still young and has alot of football ahead of him. Steve Young was 26 and had two (pretty bad) years of NFL experience before starting for the Niners and having success.
Wow, I don’t understand QB valuing around here at all.
Alex Smith is a better QB than Kurt Warner right now? Before Monday, Warner joined Johnny Unitas as the only other QB to go four straight games with a passer rating over 120. In these games leading up to MNF, Warner completed 72.7% of his passes for 1,089 yards, 12 TD, 0 INT, 9 YPA, and an average rating of 135.4
You’re telling me that having those amazing numbers wouldn’t have given the Niners more wins than they have this year with Smith, even despite the difference in receiver corps?
by Chimneyfish on Dec 15, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
I am not talking about just this year
I am talking about the future and where this franchise is going…I know about warner’s stats (he’s on my fantasy team) but he is not the QB for a team like the niners.
Favre is also having a terrific season but I woudn’t want him on the 49ers either.
BTW: Boldin, Fitzgerald, and Breaston (et al) have a great deal to do with Warner’s stats.
Ok, I can see you point from the age angle when it comes to the future of a franchise. I was just responding to the original commentator’s sentiment that only a handful of teams have a better QB than Smith at the moment.
by Chimneyfish on Dec 15, 2009 12:51 PM PST up reply actions
That was me...should clarified...
Talking about the niners’ futures…not just this season.
To make more point even more, which one of the younger QBs (Alex is 25) is better than Alex right now (not five years ago)
Rodgers (I completely agree with this one and screamed my head off when the niners did not pick him…but you know what they say about spilled milk)
Romo (maybe)
Flacco (I say no but debatable)
who else?
Answer my own question
Ryan (probably but facing first injury)
BTW: Ryan’s stats.
2009 (11 games) 59.4%, 2,291 yards, 16 TDs, 12 Ints
2008 (16 games) 61.1%, 3,440 yards, 16 TDs, 11 ints
Maybe the guy in Detroit (whose name eludes me).
Those look familiar...
Oh wait, those are almost the same as Smith’s this year. By the way, why don’t we go out and draft a new young QB like Matt Ryan…
Schaub?
He seems to be the current era DeBerg. Eli only wins when his running game and passrush carries the team. Flacco may develop into a top 10 or even top 5 QB but right now his youth is a main reason the Ravens have regressed.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Steve DeBerg
career backup and journeman (not unlike Jeff Garcia or Trent Dilfer actually). Was starting QB when the Niners drafted Joe Montana. Was starting QB for Denver when the drafted John Elway. Also played for Tampa Bay before Steve Young came in.
Just good enough, but not great.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
I forgot Dan Marino too
DeBerg was the starter in Miami when they picked up Dan Marino.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
And
A guy who has very good yardage stats and gives you a chance to win in the 4th quarter, but makes a huge turnover that leads to you losing the game. He did it when he was a young QB and into his vet years. And as it turned out he warmed the position for Montana and Elway. His best years were as the smart vet QB in KC playing Martyball.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Manning-more stats
2009 (13 games) 60.4%, 3,316 yds, 23 tds, 11 int
2008 (16 games) 60.3% 3,238 yds, 21 td, 10 ints
2007 (16 games) 56.1% 3,336 yds, 23 TDs, 20 ints (super bowl year)
2006 (16 games) 57.7%, 3,244 yds, 24 TDs, 18 ints
2005 (16 games) 52.8%, 3762 yds, 24 TDs 17 ints
Smith (2009 prorate), 60.9%, 32 TDs, 20 ints, 3671 yards…pretty good.
fan
ive been a fan for 20+ years
i’ve watched everygame i could and given our rich history at the qb position where to you does alex smith fit in
most people earn second chances they dont just get them because our personal department lacks the ability to bring in winning talent at the position
we need to look at winners as our head coach sais i want winners under norv turner frank gore ran for1700 yards but we still couldnt win ten games in a weak div.
ben roethlesberger won a sb in his second year
Dude
You need to learn to write.
If we want winners we better get rid of Frank Gore and Patrick Willis too. They haven’t played on any winning 49er teams, so they’re obviously not winners. Throw VD out with them too while you’re at it.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
yea dude
not the same thing if you have a back that averaged more than 100 yards a game you sould win more than you lose and our team has improved since willis and davis alex smith is still learning to take snaps see the difference
Poor Steven Jackson
2nd leading rusher in the NFL. How are the Rams doing again? Do they have the division locked up yet, or are they stuck in the basement.
I’d be lying if I said Alex Smith didn’t make me worried last night- at least a little bit. When the 49ers’ offense switched to using shotgun-heavy passing formations in the Jags game, Smith looked great. When they carried that philosophy into Seattle the next week, he had the best passing game of his career. I’ve gotta admit that something in the back of my mind was thinking that our offense finally clicked and we had a playoff quarterback again who doesn’t throw interceptions from the shotgun. Then last night he looked pretty bad and threw two interceptions.
But we won last night and lost in Seattle, so who knows what’s going on.
He also threw two TD's
and had a couple of brilliant passes just dropped. What you are most likely seeing are a series of problems with communication and execution that would have been worked out in training camp had their been a training camp to work it out.
What no one says, is that some of Alex’s best throws yesterday were dropped passes. A couple were thrown perfectly into tight coverage and the defender got lucky tips for incomplete passes. Sure, it might not have been wise to throw the ball into the coverage on a couple of them, but I take that as growing confidence for Alex in his own abilities.
What I didn’t like about yesterday’s game were the amount of points we got off of 7 turnovers. It seems like we should have had a lot more than 24 points. Like I said in the above paragraph, there were a few dropped passes, that were key to getting a first down, or touchdown, etc… just like Vernon’s dropped TD pass the week before. So to be honest, the team really has a problem with consistency, and part of that is being in a new offense that they are working with. Give this team an offseason to work things out, smooth out the rough edges, and then judge the QB on his play.
What I find weird, is that it seems like the O-line plays better in the shotgun too, not just Alex performing better.
Dropped passes have plagued this offense
Alex would have much better stats if his receivers could hang onto every perfectly thrown ball.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Running out of the shotgun...
Frank Gore had some good runs out of the shotgun as well. I’d have to go rewatch the tape again, but I think he was consistently gaining 5-8 yards on each attempt out of the gun.
I think so too
he’s actually been very successful out of the gun
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Did they run the shotgun on the last couple drives when they were trying to run out the clock? I was too busy having a heart attack during the 4th quarter… I’ve had a heart attack just about every week this season… it’s at least made the games VERY fun to watch… although, my neighbors probably hate all the screaming that I do.
To be fair, two of those turnovers came at the end of halves, when we had no chance for scoring drives anyway.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
yeah, that’s true, and a couple were in the second half when it was more important to run out the clock, right? It’s a pretty deceiving stat, I guess.
Finishing the Game
I think he did a pretty decent job. He finished the game which he’s had trouble doing in the past which have lost the game. He didn’t finish against Seattle, Green Bay, Indy, or Houston, but he finished the game last night. He helped sustain a crucial late 4th qtr drive that kept the ball out of the hands of the Cardinals. And his two picks? Weren’t they both off of tipped balls?! or was it just one? Anyhow, with his two picks, he still put up good numbers and finished the game! So I think he did a fantastic job.
This what I liked about the game
Smith played his best in the 4th Qtr which is what he had been missing the last few weeks. Also, he played his best on 3rd down. Quite the opposite of last week.
One of Schefters tweets
49ers formula for winning: SF is 5-0 this season when Frank Gore gets more than 15 carries and 0-6 when he doesn’t (DNP in 2 games).
I think that’s quite a stat.. I do like the spread, but when something like that is being displayed, Smith does need to develop being under center, rather than strictly from the gun.
Except he's never led us to a winning season
so he can’t be any good. We better start looking for a replacement right now and get rid of the bum.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
yo
just sad to see a team lose year after year because of weak leadership at the qb position. here we have a guy actually defending like were doing good this year or past years
this is where I'm at...
we’re best when we run…wether it works or not- giving the ball to gore gives us the best combination of clock management, turnover control, field position, dictating the defense (seeing 8 man fronts), and homerun potential.
A lot of niner fans want to see yardage. Yards do not = wins.
BUT
It’s not just “when we run.” This season is the perfect example. A lot of things have to happen for us to run well. Having Frank Gore isn’t enough. The opposing defense NEEDS to respect our passing capabilities and the O line needs to give the QB time to make throws AND create holes for Frank. It all has to come together. That’s why the O line has to improve, first and foremost.
That stat is a bit misleading though, due to clock management factors. Teams generally run more when they’re winning and pass more when they’re losing. Last night was one of the few times that the 49ers actually had a solid lead at halftime, which is why they gave Gore more carries the rest of the game. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Gore was the key factor in creating that big lead.
by Chimneyfish on Dec 15, 2009 12:45 PM PST up reply actions
If you ask me . . .
Most football stats are misleading. There is no single formula for winning, flaws exist in every plan.
so we should just pull a walsh
and script the first 15 plays as Gore runs! Automatic wins!
Or maybe you are confusing correlation and causation.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Actually. not at all.
and script the first 15 plays as Gore runs! Automatic wins!
That was dumb. Not even what I was thinking.
the point is that
the reason they Niners win when Gore gets 15+ handoffs is because they are not playing comeback football.
That is to say, the fact that they are winning allows them to run more. Not running more leading to winning more.
Apologies for the reducio ad absurdum
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Alex Smith made his money on 3rd down
Smith made big throws on 3rd and long to keep drives going during this game. That was the difference between this game and last (against Seattle) and the difference between Smith and Hill earlier in the season. There’s nothing more demoralizing for a defense to have done your job and have the offense in 3rd and long—and then to see a guy (like VD or Crabtree this game) scampering past the yardsticks.
Jason Hill is turning the corner!
he was 3/10 converting 3rd downs passing
That’s… not wretched!
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Break down the numbers plz
Breakdown the third downs passes:
1Q
3rd and 16: incomplete
3rd and 5: completion-3 yards to Crabtree
2Q
3rd and 15: incomplete
3rd and 8: incomplete
3rd and 10: completion: 13 yards to VD (FD)
3rd and 10: incomplete
4Q
3rd and 5: incomplete
3rd and 4: completion to Crabtree for FD (6 yards)
3rd and 10: completion to VD for FD (16 yards)
3rd and 10: completion to Coffer for 7 yards
Let’s see, smith was:
4/6 with 3rd and 10+ (3 FD)
0/1 with 3rd and 6-9
2/3 with 3rd and 5- (1 FD)
I get 4 for 10 but maybe I am off…still that’s pretty impressive
Nope..it is 3 for 10 (and he was 3/6 on 3rd and 10+ situations)
But Smith was 6 of 10 on 3rd down
6 of the 10 3rd downs were 10+ yards…which he converted 2 for first downs.
Impressive is probably the wrong word…solid is probably better
3/10 converting
You get no points for a 3 yard pass on 3rd and 5 or a 7 yard pass on 3rd and 10. Obviously some of that in on the recievers, play call, etc. But it always is.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
But one needs to the stat in context
NFL stats: Average of making it to FD
3rd and 10+: 20%
3rd and 8: 32%
3rd and 5: 42%
3rd and 4: 47%
(6(0.2)0.322(0.42)+0.47)/10=28.3% conversion rate…Alex got 30 percent via passing only (which is only caught 60-70 percent of the time).
you are assuming
that all 3-and-X occur with equal frequency. I don’t know the freq. but we can compare Smith at these 4 levels:
3rd and 10+: 2 out of 6 (GOOD!), expect only 1.2!
3rd and <10: 1 out of 3 (BAD!)
I’m pretty sure 30% is below average over all 3rd downs passing. I quibble though. It’s probably not a terrible performance.
Overall though, his DVOA was pretty bad for this game, which accounts for all these situations.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
He kept two key 4th Quarter drives alive...
Which chewed so much time off the clock there was no way Arizona could come back.
off
He was off last night. Accuracy was terrible. Crabtree ran a lazy post and Alex missed him. Floated others. Lucke there wern’t more picks.
Yes and Peyton was trying to lose the game for Indy on Sunday
Peyton against Den: 20 of 42 (47.6%), 4 TDs, and 3 ints
Smith v Arizona: 19 of 45 (54.6%), 2 TDs, 2 ints.
I think Indy should get rid of Manning and get some better…
Manning had a better day
>5 YPA compared to 4 for Smith
converted 7 of 13 First Downs on 3rd down compared to 3 of 10 for Smith
Not that I think Smith was “trying to lose the game”… I just think he was off.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
I always knew Alex would come back
Then again, I still wouldn’t write off Shaun Hill. This situation is fickle and your job is never secure.
by More False Hope on Dec 15, 2009 12:37 PM PST reply actions
From his performance last night
Warner should retire.
by Bob In Beaverton on Dec 15, 2009 12:37 PM PST reply actions
Vernon Davis needs to stop dropping passes
“Butterfingers”
by More False Hope on Dec 15, 2009 12:38 PM PST reply actions
Not Sure
This was one of those games that Alex Smith had to make a statement to be the starter for the future. It was not a good interview. He did ok but not great. So the final test begins against the eagles. HE has to win this game not the defense for me to consider from this point on. I still want to win but if u read between the line what steve young says…
Let's get the division!
by chriscream on Dec 15, 2009 12:39 PM PST via mobile reply actions
nice sentiment, but
We need to win on the shoulders of our D. it’s our better unit.
Alex is gonna get blitzed crazy next week- if he tries to make a statement against a heavy blitz – we lose. He’ll need to get very comfortable dumping it off this week in practice.
Best we've got.
Smith is the best quarterback right now. I didn’t think he was very good last night. There are areas where I’d like to see more communication between him and his receivers, lead them but not overthrow them, etc. He made a couple of bad decisions. And I don’t care what Hitler’s completion percentage was, I’d like to see Smith have a higher completion percentage.
That said, he’s the best for now. I’d love to see Nate Davis blossom into a great QB, and if there’s a great quarterback available in the draft and we’ve gotten all our other problems then let’s go for it.
But I think that you can live with Smith as starter next year.
by Bob In Beaverton on Dec 15, 2009 12:45 PM PST reply actions
Made just enough passes to win the game..
I’ll take this performance in a WIN as opposed to his great game last week in a loss. We don’t need him to throw up Peyton type numbers. Would be nice, but we need wins.
Alex had a fairly poor game last night from what I saw. There were plenty of poorly thrown balls and his two touchdowns were a result of a drive starting within 10 yards of the endzone and a nice catch from Crabtree. I was annoyed when the announcers kind of got on Crabtree’s case for not catching a pass that he had to dive for. And he was wide open.
The defense did it’s job last night and the AZ offense looked strangely awful.
"Any time I watch a game on television, I have to turn the commentators off. They say 'he's playing well' and I'm thinking 'no, he's not.' My advice to anyone is don't listen to the experts, just watch the game and gather your own opinion."
-Roy Keane
Smith last night
had -88 DYAR. Which is sub-replacement value. It’s obvious from his 4 YPA. 2 picks doesn’t help either.
Ironically, he had the best game of ANY QB in the NFC West.. whose performaces ranked:
25th Smith
28th Warner
29th Hasselback
and
34th (Null). Yes, he was the 34th best QB … on 32 teams.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Null
How does that work? Maybe because J. Russell came in and possibly Michael Vick throwing passes? I mean there were more than 32 QB’s that played Sunday so that’s the only explanation I can come up with
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
Titans had Collins and Young as well as Oakland’s dynamic duo.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Sometimed QB's
just hae bad games. Warner’s performance was God awful as well. Sure Smith wasn’t as accurate as he has been of late. Does that mean we should be worried over 1 game? I dont think that at all. A few games back Warner (against the Panthers) threw 5 INT’s… He’s more thna likely going to be a hall of famer.
I think it’s jumping the gun a bit for any one that is saying anything other than he should still be the starter. Smith has rebounded from everything he has endured and is making a legit case for himself to be the 49ers starter of the future.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
Free agency
We need to pick up a proven winner at QB. Farve or Warner would have been sweet. That way you won’t have to wonder or grow an inconsistant kid at the most crucial position. Why can’t we do that? Are we too stupid? Too dedicated to inaccurate wanna bees?
Nothing says “I’m a Niners fan” like wanting to have Favre at QB.
If Bochy coached the Warriors Bengie Molina would start every game at PG.
by cybermaldonado on Dec 15, 2009 2:50 PM PST up reply actions
I am not even sure how to comment on this...I will just say that I am in the
NOT Favre and Warner camp.
Clearly, that's little more than a mantra.
Not really a viable strategy with any perceivable algorithm that actually produces what we need. Give me something more than “hire a winner.”
Yeah, front office! Get it done! Go hire Drew Brees or you are all fired!
That’s so obvious, why didn’t I think of that?
Okay. Seriously. It’s spelled Inconsistent. With an e.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 3:08 PM PST up reply actions
Hopefully your waiver claim is high enough. I guess we’ll find out when waivers are processed tomorrow morning.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 3:15 PM PST up reply actions
A proven winner like Jason Campbell?
or maybe you want David Carr instead? Or Chad Pennington?
Those are the guys who are going to be available in FA.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Campbell is actually pretty good.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
I agree
but he’s not an upgrade over Alex Smith.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
There’s probably a good debate there somewhere. I’m just not interested in having it.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 4:41 PM PST up reply actions
I remember...
… a couple years ago (before the Smith shoulder issues began), method actually had a bet going on with someone over at the Redskins SBN blog about who would have a better year: Smith or Campbell. Don’t remember the outcome, but I’m pretty sure the injury nullified the bet.
Not so shocking news...
The Rams just released Richie Incognito… A young guy who by all accounts is a good player although he needs a kick in the (site decorum)… maybe Sing is just the coach to provide that. Thoughts?
by Smithisstilltheanswer on Dec 15, 2009 3:11 PM PST reply actions
Incognito is very fat.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions
So you're saying he's not?
Incongnito that is.
by Smithisstilltheanswer on Dec 15, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions
The 49ers won’t even get a shot at him in waivers. He’s a complete bonehead, but was also good enough to start despite being a complete bonehead.
I figured he would ride the pine the rest of the season, but flat out cut means the Rams were absolutely pissed at him.
Why wouldn't they have a shot?
if a 1-12 team drops him how many other bad teams would be willing to pick him up? I see coach Sing as our advantage in this situation.
by Smithisstilltheanswer on Dec 15, 2009 3:27 PM PST up reply actions
He has talent
It’s his attitude. Anyways, the waiver wire is determined by team record. At least a dozen other football teams have a shot at claiming him before the 49ers. Have to think one of those teams will take a flyer on him.
Yea I know who the WW works...
But I wonder how many teams will honestly take a gamble on him. I’m only saying I could see the 9ers doing it based on Sing’s rep and our need for a decent guard.
by Smithisstilltheanswer on Dec 15, 2009 3:36 PM PST up reply actions
The way Sing turns him around
The first time he has a significant blowup, Sing sends him to the locker room and makes sure he takes his helmet with him!
BTW, he can’t live up to his name too well if he’s very fat (tongue-in-cheek).