How we can win on Sunday - Disproving the myths

I was having a conversation with my friend yesterday , an unfortunate Chiefs fan , when we started discussing the match up on Sunday when he made the strange statement that he thinks we will win because we are on the road.

I laughed at him . Obviously. However thinking back over the season - we could and probably should have beaten the vikings and the colts who have a combined 24-2 record , we ran out of time vs the packers and have beaten the cards on the road and the seahawks was our best offensive performance of the year. 

All those performances had some exceptionally good offensive play wheras our home victories have been based largely on some exceptional defensive performances with the exception of The Seahawks and the Jags victories and offensively have been based around Frank Gore .

At least thats what it felt like - so I decided to dig further and try and see if my gut instinct was correct .... and it was .... and startingly so.

The facts speak for themselves.

1. Alex Smith is a much much better QB on the road than at home . In fact he is elite level on the road and barely passable at home .

In road games this year Alex Smith has a QB rating of 93.7 which places him just outside the top 10 QB's in the league while at home his 73.8 places him in the bottom 10 of the league. In terms of TD/INT the difference is even more stark - Pro bowl Alex has 9 TDS and 3 INTS on the road vs 6:6 at home . 12.22 Yards per completion on the road - 8.57 at home and 7.12 ypa vs 5.41 . Interestingly he is more accurate at home but I feel that this is because a lot of him balls are little dump offs behind the line. 

So Alex Smith finds it difficult to play in Candlestick - why? Is it playcalling , something about the defence or nerves. In terms of playcalling , yes this could account for the differential in terms of the yards averages however shorter easier passes should lead to LESS Ints not more , so Alex is playing worse with more conservative play calling.

In terms of the defences faced - on the road the colts game is very instructive - 1st half of that vs a bona fide Playoffs defence - alex was very very effecient especially on the 2 min drill. And contrary to propular opinion the Packers were not easing off to the extent that they were torched in the second half.

Is it nerves or other intangibles - Maybe . There doesnt seem to be any objective reason for the vastly better performance on the road.

So what does this mean for Sunday - see below.... after the second truth

2. Frank Gore is much much better at home than on the road. He is elite level at home and barely passable on the road - and this has been the trend since 2006

No question about this at all . 3.7 Avg on the road - 6.1 at home - but it is actually mch worse that that - if you discount the long run vs indy and the long run vs the packers - the average falls to 2.07yards per att on the road. This simply is not good enough to get it done. This has been the trend since 2006 . In 2006 Frank had an avg of 5.74 yds per att on the road - this fell to 4.73 in 2007 3.04 in 2008 and 3.7 in 2009. While his home performance has remained at an Elite level.

Why is this? - Well you could argue that the playcalling on the road since we were behind so often would be so geared to the pass that it didnt allow Frank to get into a rhythm . Not true - his touches on the road over the last 4 years while less than that at home are not enough to warrent such a drastic fall off in performance.  QBs have changed as have OC's so no individual one can be blamed . It seems that Frank just cant seem to get it going on the road . Perplexing .

And we have a road game on Sunday...

3. Alex Smith is only marginally better from the Shotgun thrown more TD passes , has a higher completion % and has more attempts from under centre than the shotgun - critically however he has half the interceptions from the shotgun

Alex Smith is better from the Shotgun . Yes we all seem to agree with this and yet the stats dont seem to bear this out totally - while it is true that his reads are definately better see lower int % - in terms of production there is little or no difference between the two. The true increase in performance comes with additional WR on the field .  So the problem is that his ball protection is worse from under centre and not his production.

4. Frank Gore is better from the shotgun.

Laugh all you want the facts speak for themselves 5.0 avg from shotgun vs 4.7 from lone setback vs 2.7 in the I formation!!!!! . Admitadly the attempts from setback vs shotgun are greater and therefore the 4.7 avg is more impressive but running with a fullback - Frank just is not getting it done. When you factor in the additional reciever we are losing in the I formation which is hurting Alex Smiths performance you realise it is a bad idea all round.

5. Alex Smith is far more efficient throwing the ball down the centre of the field than to the sidelines .

50% passing average to the left sideline where Crabtree often lines up in the spread is not good. I have noticed this in a few games about passes being consistanty over or underthrown on passes to the sidelines. This has to be a mechanics or footwork issue as it is not consistant with the good Accuracy down the middle and to the left side (the Vernon pass) of a weighted average of 67% .

So what does this mean for Sunday .

Judging by what we have seen so far this season and what is proved in the stats we need to have a pass focused offence largely from the shotgun . Frank Gore cannot be relied on to win this game as he doesnt have the production on the road over the last 3 years to justify this . In contrast Alex Smith has been exceptional on the road and so the gameplan should be based around this . In terms of ball protection the shotgun needs to be used as it also provides a very good platform for the touches that Frank Gore will get . Focus on playcalling which emphasizes passes down the centre of the field and one more thing - if we need a game winning drive dont call a deep pass to the sidelines two plays in succession - it has only a 50% chance of working!