Is this the balance we were looking for?
by David Fucillo on Dec 21, 2009 7:00 AM PST
in San Francisco 49ers News
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PrintI realize the 49ers lost yesterday and looked rather disjointed at times on offense. Mike Singletary himself admitted that Alex Smith played poorly in the game. He threw three interceptions that did a whole lot of damage to the offense. He struggled to make plays when things broke down. We got a lot of the same problems we've seen before.
However, my question comes more to the play-calling, rather than the breakdown in execution. Even though the team was still in the playoff chase, part of the last month of games is about evaluating the players, the coaches, and everything in between in an attempt to build on what successes there were this season.
When we discuss offensive balance, it is necessary to define what kind of balance we're talking about. The simplest form is a 50/50 pass/run ratio. Of course, sometimes that's not exactly realistic. As Florida Danny and others have preached, balance is being able to run and pass when you want. Maybe you have a 2/1 pass/run ratio, but you're in a position to have great success in those instances when you do run.
Prior to the season, Mike Singletary preached about how he wanted to be able to run the ball 60% of the time. Early on it seemed like the team was going to smash the ball into the line no matter what to try and get to that ratio. Clearly that wasn't going to work. We've since seen a wild swing to the other end of the spectrum with a pass-heavy shotgun offense. Throughout all of this, it's hard to sense any sort of "balance" in the offense, however you might define it.
Which brings us to the last two games. Last Monday against Arizona, Alex Smith attempted 35 passes and Frank Gore rushed 25 times (we won't count the other rushes for now). Yesterday, Alex Smith attempted 37 passes and Frank Gore rushed 16 times. Now, in passing the ball, Alex Smith has not been all that effective at times. At other times, he's seen his wide receivers dropping passes they simply have to be catching. Either way, the execution has not been where it needs to be.
But at the same time, did we see the right kind of offensive philosophy yesterday? The team fell behind so they had to abandon the run in the fourth quarter. However, if Alex Smith and his offensive line could have been more effective in their execution, is this the kind of offensive philosophy that the team can build on heading into 2010? Alex Smith has struggled with ineffectiveness at times, but I also think he's been quite productive at times. I remain fine with the idea of him working with Jimmy Raye and Mike Johnson in the offseason to build on this.
However, just as important, we might finally be seeing Frank Gore fit into this offense. Obviously it's a day late and a dollar short for 2009, but I think that certainly provides some semblance of optimism heading into 2010.
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i'm tired of the term "balance"
you have to be able to take what the defense gives you! you simply cannot say “we’re going to run the ball right now because we want to”. great, so the defense puts all 11 in the box…think you can still run the ball? No, you need to be able to drop a pass over their heads in that case. If they’re dropping back in prevent all day, you run the ball.
It’s not about doing what you “want to” its about finding a way to Move.The.Ball based on where you can win battles against the other team’s defense.
The Eagles blitzed and got pressure on us. How do you beat the blitz? Screens and draws…something we suck at. You have to be skilled in all phases of the game!
I could care less how many plays we run of each, or when we run them. Move the ball. That’s the only thing that matters.
Not only were there blitzes…but, as we saw on the final fourth down that killed our season, even four man fronts got to Alex quickly. ASmith did the best with what little time the line afforded him. line line line line
On 5/7, the best part of waking is up LOLDGERS in my cup.
Dude, the only thing i look to are the other QBs in the league, Rodgers has how many sacks? 40 something, Big Ben has 43…. shouldn’t their fans be saying “fix the line” as well? Yet they’re doing just fine… well the steelers arent, but know what i’m saying? Smith has been sacked 18 times, in how many games, 7?
That final play
Bass got straight beat. Had he not, Alex likely has a pocket to step up and attempt a pass, even with moderate pressure from the outisde. Once Bass got beat, play was over without a throw. He and Snyder get beat too cleanly too often. At least Chilo has stopped whiffing on people. He still has upside. Bass and Snyder? They’ve reached their ceiling and it’s too close to mediocre.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
It's hard
to find balance when the execution is so terrible. If we’re going to be dealing with the same OC next year (most likely) he’ll need better execution on the field to make a solid balanced game plan. All this talk is a mute point until changes are made in personnel.I don’t believe there was one game this season where the game plan lasted through the first quarter.(maybe the rams) and the team didn’t go into a panic mode somewhat. When the run is going well for more than 1 or 2 plays in a row why does raye automatically go to the passing game? and when i say that I don’t mean 1 or 2 passes, I’m talking about 1st thru 3rd down and then punting. All momentum is lost at that point.
The reason we lost is...
we changed the OL this week… should have just kept what was working with personnel instead of putting back in no longer injured players
how was Snyder?
I heard his name called in a negative way a few times but I missed all of the second half.
Time to do a Tackle swap?
Snyder was terrible
Throughout the first half and throughout the second half. Synder needs to be benched, not swapped to the other side.
for a few series in a row it seems his name was being said a lot. in a negative way of course
by srill waiting on Dec 21, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions
Snyder has been bad pretty much all seaons at RT
That’s why we need one so badly. We can maybe move him to LG or RG as starter or backup
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Dec 21, 2009 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
unfortunately
that wasn’t the only reason. never is when we lose
by srill waiting on Dec 21, 2009 9:59 AM PST up reply actions
Lately I’ve been less upset with the playcalling as much as the execution. I appreciate that Raye seems to be flexible between games as well as in-game.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 21, 2009 10:35 AM PST reply actions
+1000
I don’t think jimmy is the problem anymore, its the way we execute, we looked unorganized at times and to be honest we looked a little flat…I know we have some young players but its time to step up and play with that same intensity as we did in AZ every week…
JV vs Varsity
thats what last nights game looked like. Philly came ready to play while we kept shooting ourselves in the foot. I am still proud of the progress the team has made and axiously look forward to next season. Alex will be our starting QB and we will protect him so he can look down field and make those plays we know he’s capable of. Pat Will get some help on the outside as well. There are many positves to look at. But it does suck to know we were close to making the playoffs (6 games decided by 6 points or less)…
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are"
One clarification
Wasn’t it Raye who made the infamous “run the 60% of the time” statement? It was never realistic, as no team came close last year. Yet that one idea of his has received way too much ink. He should’ve kept it to himself.
As for balance, your balance ideally tilts toward your strenghts. Any team with Peyton, Brees, Brady or Rivers should tilt 60/40 toward the pass. That they do even while winning most of their games (thus running more in the 4thQ) is a perfect balance for them. If your QB is Romo, Eli, Ryan, Flacco or some other good but not great QB, you compliment them more with a solid running game and are closer to 50/50.
The ideal for the Niners, with Gore at RB and Alex at QB, is closer to 50/50. It won’t be that way every game but should be around that number for a full season. I think the passing game has excellent weapons what will shine brighter after an offseason in the same system, but Alex needs the support of a running game and Gore is too good to not get him 16+ carries per game.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
correct
I did a quick google search and it sounds like he did say that. Of course, I’m wondering how much of that was influenced by Singletary’s own philosophy.
by David Fucillo on Dec 21, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
I always thought it was his unreachable ideal
And more about wanting to set the tone which, yes, matched the philosophy Sing opened the season with. Especially with Hill at QB. Sort of a, ‘with this QB’s limitations we better protect him and the defense by keeping every game close thus we can have rearly 40 rushing attempts and 25 pass attempts." An ideal that should’ve stayed in his head. Almost like when RBs (paging Mr. Barlow) open the season stating they can get 2000 yards rushing. It’s just too difficult and announcing it puts your opponents on notice. If the 2007-8 NYG and 2008 Falcons (with a rookie QB) couldn’t run more than 55% of the time, it’s not possible in today’s NFL to reach 60%.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
he wanted to, and who wouldn't?
want to run 60% of the time, eat clock, control the game. But like I said above…there is no such thing as proclaiming what you’re going to do. You do what the defense allows you to do through their scheme. you take advantage of them. They probably thought that’s all we’d be able to do this year was run with Hill and no great WR…unproven Davis as of that point in time (is he proven yet?)
Gore has had a couple big games in a row, while the passing game has struggled. Is this a sign of imbalance? I think so.
Opposing teams haven’t been bothering to defend the run. A prime example was the Cardinals game, where one of the top run D’s in the league was completely unable to stop Gore while they defended very well against the pass. Why did the Niners win that game? They got up early and started running the ball more, something the Cardinals weren’t prepared for, but also creating balance.
Conversely, when the Niners have fallen behind in games, they’ve abandoned the run. Since the other team is prepared to, pretty much, only pass defend, this hasn’t worked out well for the Niners.
The Niners play calling strategy just isn’t putting them in the best situation to win. And, it all comes down to the lack of balance making life really easy for opposing coaches and defenses.
If Bochy coached the Warriors Bengie Molina would start every game at PG.
by cybermaldonado on Dec 21, 2009 11:04 AM PST reply actions
Avoiding the gloom
I usually read posts put up during and right after the game more than 12 hours after they go up. Seeing there are hundreds of comments that I’m sure the vast majority are complaints, I won’t bother to look at the gloomy details. :)
That said, I need a sounding board for two observations/issues/concerns about this game (Thanks very much for these postings, Fooch. They are greatly appreciated.) First, you are definitely right about your questions about playcalling. I was on the road for the fourth quarter listening to the call on KNBR. There were two things I heard that indicated to me that the Niners playcalling still leaves very much to be desired. Now I know that the Niners were behind, and when most teams are down two TD’s in the fourth quarter they will favor passing over running plays. But I believe there was a drive where they had a 3rd and 2. There still had to be over six minutes in the game at this point. Logically I would have thought with Gore’s relative success during the game that the Niners would run for the 1st and at least keep the drive going. But what I heard was the Niners going in shotgun formation and Alex throwing for an incompletion for one of the 11 unsuccessful (none successful) attempts at a third down conversion. Please feel free to differ, but I think that going from 50% third down efficiency to 0% in two weeks does say a lot about the playcalling, or lack thereof. It really comes down to not much more than just what it’s saying, inconsistency. It may be just me, but it seems like this coaching staff is not convinced that the way to keep the game within control is by trying as best as possible to keep a balanced attack. Of course because teams differ defensively, the plays within that attack should be varied accordingly, but the balance of plays shouldn’t be compromised. You can’t give a defensive unit sufficient reason to consistently figure out what you’re going to do.
Also, on the subject of specific plays, the final fourth down call, according to a comment from Gary Plummer, was horrendous. I have thought that Alex could use some work on his checkdown, but I came to the conclusion that if he’s got nothing to check down, it becomes a moot point. On a fourth and seven in the red zone (or anywhere really), you would think if the Niners are going to pass, they would have a receiver or two run some kind of underneath pattern to give Alex some options. But Gary made the comment that all the receivers were sent on a vertical pattern. My only response to that is. . .???
Second, it was very clear yesterday that Alex is still clearly not a QB that has the cunning to “control” opposing DB’s. I don’t see much checking down, pump fakes, things he can do to influence DB’s to instinctively break their coverages. I noticed that a lot on the Samuel INT. J Hill looked like he could have potentially been more open on that play than VD. Alex could have instinctively pump faked to try and get Samuel come up (which he did) and then get the ball over the coverage to J Hill. Hopefully this will be one of the main focuses of Mike Johnson’s work with Alex in the offseason.
Logically one would conclude that because he for once will have an OC that he can work with for more than one season, there is still something positive waiting to be seen with Alex. I did think at one point last night that they have only two games left with nothing more to play for, let’s just for the sake of argument have Nate Davis start a game to see what he can do with a 1st string offense. If he does decently, maybe it paves the way for a competion for the starting job next year. But at this point I just don’t know. Maybe we are just kicking a dead horse in Alex. Maybe we should give him one full year to prove himself with an OC that he’s been with for more than one season. I just don’t know at this point what is the best course of action.
I agree with a lot of that
I get upset when we don’t run for 3rd and short. I’d rather punt than throw an incompletion on 3rd down…most of the time.
It’s been said this year that a lot of the “spread” looks have involved all “go” routes and Alex just picks one (usually forcing it to VD). I don’t get the impression that he reads defenses mid-play very well yet. It’s also been said that in a true college spread offense there generally aren’t reads. They line up a ton of WR’s but the play is usually designed to go to only one of them and the QB throws to that route.
Alex also does not pump fake or look guys off very well. Sigh, there are a lot of fundamentally important aspects of the NFL QB position that Alex doesn’t seem to know how to do well. And I can only hope, as you are, that an off-season of continuity will get him to the next level.
As was said elsewhere, next year there will be no more questions about Alex Smith…there will only be answers.
I don't think "cunning" is in a spread QB's vocabulary
One of my favorite college teams is University of Hawaii (yeah I’m a masochist). They have basically run the spread/run and shoot ever since June Jones was HC, so for eleven seasons I’ve had quite a few chances to see spread QB’s at work. I don’t think it’s even thought of for them to look off defenders, pump fake or do anything to try to control DB’s reactions. For the most part all they’re apparently asked to do is find what they think is the most open receiver as quickly as possible and throw the ball. I really wish that Alex will realize that he should calm down, look for that open receiver and do more than merely throw the ball in to him. Do something to make the coverage look like they have a way lower I.Q. than he does! But of course that’s a tall order right now with the OL he has. But it’s not to say he absolutely cannot do it. That’s why he’s put in the shotgun so much right?
Reading defenses
I’m not sure how good at it he is but he could certainly get better. Ultimately that only comes with playing time which is one reason these last two games do matter. I’m treating this year as the third season of Smith’s career. Next, his fourth, and first time with the same system, is make or break for his career. He’ll either be a legit young starting QB or be someone’s Gary Kubiak.
As for pump fakes and looking defenders off, he did that on his TD pass to Morgan in Seattle. My hope is that that happens more often with more PT and familiarty with his receivers and the sytem.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Good points
0-11 Third down conversions. It’s hard to argue that there is not something wrong with the coaching when you see that
Alex Smith. Did the guy even have time to pump fake at anytime in that game? Seriously, he has things to learn (like rolling out to the left), but I wonder how he is expected to learn anything when h’e busy running for his or quick firing the ball every play. I’d like to see how he progresses with a little bit better O-line.
If Bochy coached the Warriors Bengie Molina would start every game at PG.
by cybermaldonado on Dec 21, 2009 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t like Alex’s pump fakes even if he had time to do them. He ain’t foolin’ no one. I’m glad he at least stopped doing spin fakes. Pump fakes are only as good as the QB who is threatening with them. He hasn’t established that type of rep yet. I also hate some of his pass trajectories. It’s a bad sign when the ball is getting batted down by D-linemen. For a tall guy, this shouldn’t be happening this much. Here’s what they should do in practice: have him throw passes against a rush without any O-Line (no tackling of course).
Ok even a non game savvy fan could have figured that out!
My dad is the type of fan who only sees “black and white” during a game, you’re either good or your bad. But funny you mention learning to roll left because my dad said it’s all Alex seems to do!
I guess that it’s a matter of perspective- Smith only rolls out to HIS right, unless I’m completely wrong.
If Bochy coached the Warriors Bengie Molina would start every game at PG.
by cybermaldonado on Dec 21, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions
Hehe. I typed left myself and then caught it at the last second and changed it.
If Bochy coached the Warriors Bengie Molina would start every game at PG.
by cybermaldonado on Dec 21, 2009 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
How about play action?
I only remember one attempt at play action and it was on a 3rd and long when Philly brought the house so it was blown up.
Play action is good
But I think it’s most effective when you’re running a more balanced offense, which the Niners don’t truly have right now. They run the ball reasonably effectively, so the timing of when it’s used could make it effective. But as defenses know the Niners have been pass happy as of late, that’s basically what the result was in this case.
Alex hasn't shown enough mobility in the pocket
He’s proven that he is a good pocket passer. However, Alex is unable to elude the pass rush and pick up smart yards. As much as I like to blame ownership for the bad situations the team is handled, Alex Smith doesn’t make things much better.
by More False Hope on Dec 21, 2009 11:39 AM PST reply actions
This is what i’m kinda agreeing with, like i said above, i’m just wondering if anybody can come up with an explanation for Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers, among others getting sacked more than Alex, but have better stats… although Alex has only played 7 games, but has only been sacked 18 times… So what’s the problem then?
Those guys create a lot of sacks by holding onto the ball longer than Smith, not because they have worse O-lines.
If Bochy coached the Warriors Bengie Molina would start every game at PG.
by cybermaldonado on Dec 21, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
Rodgers protection has not been bad
The game in Minnesota was awful and because it was on MNF it gets remembered more but at least half of his sacks are form him holding the ball 5+ seconds. I’m not saying that GB has a top 10 O-line but theirs is better than what Alex has here in SF. Pittsburgh is a bit of that too, the QB holding the ball too long. But they’ve also spent a great deal of time trailing, thus obviosu passing situations. But yes, Roth is a better QB than Smith.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
yea, i mean, i’m just wondering because alot of blame has been on the O-line, but when one looks at the Steelers or Packers or MANY other teams, they’ve been having sacks too you know? but if it’s a problem with them holding the ball too long, then i can see whats going on. I mean, i’m sorry, i’m a huge niners fan, but at the same time, after going to school at Miami Ohio, i’m a huge fan of Big Ben and Nate Davis out of Ball St
Apples and Oranges?
I haven’t been able to watch as many of the games as I’d like but what I have seen tells me that Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben are getting coverage sacks while Alex is getting protection sacks. Ben and Rodgers holding the ball 4 or 5+ in the pocket gives the D-line too much time to do their job- collapse the pocket. Meanwhile on Sunday within three seconds of the snap there was at least one Philly defender in our backfield with a VIP pass on a lanyard breathing phillycheesesteak all over Alex. No time for a play to develop or to put finese on a pass.
An aside
Anyone who has watched the Niners for more than 10 years will have a bad taste in their mouths about our O-line. Steve Young was an oustanding QB for us and he only played 3 complete seasons as our starter. 3.
With time goes memory unless it leaves a mark. A memory that too many of us have is of an aging O-line (with no plan for the future in place by the ownership) not being able to protect Steve year after year and his career ending on a sack/concussion. That continues to haunt anyone brave enough to squat next to the Center. Steve should have been carried off on shoulders into the sunset. Instead he was carted off and forced to retire from injury. A lot of us may still have a bad taste in our mouths over that. I know I do.
yea, i mean, i’ve watched plenty of Steeler games, since i go to school in Ohio. But yea i can finally see what you’re saying, PERFECT explanation, first time i could really see that… So basically FIX THE O-LINE and see what happens next year.
But oh yes, i have watched the niners definitely of the past 10 years, And i will ALWAYS remember that play when he got sacked and given a concussion against the Cards, still haunts me. Hell, remember Montana getting knocked out of a game against the Giants? I wasn’t even born yet, but i have seen highlights… But yea, this line has been a problem for a while, i just see continuity helping it and a better player or two, they’re doing well on runblock, but EH on pass block…
Another fix
Is it just me or could we also use a fix at DB? I mean they did get two INT’s yesterday, but when you have an older guy like Dre Bly going against DeSean, that is just begging for trouble! I didn’t see enough to really know, but I would hope they lined up Tarrell Brown against DeSean for the majority of the game. There’s got to be a way that we could get in the running for a guy like Eric Berry. You’d think with two first round picks there should be a way to trade up and get him and still have an early enough pick to get a good OL.
*cough* Arenas *cough*
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
I remember reading...
That he was quick enough for the NFL, but probably too small for the NFL. Any thoughts?
Then maybe even with that size he could be a. . .
PUNT RETURNER?? :)
But if the Niners drafted him mainly for that purpose I wouldn’t see them taking him with a high pick.
I want him
as punt returner and nickel/dime back. He’s probably too small to be a starting corner.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
Offensive Problems...
1) It seems to be too obvious when we are running (under center formation, reciever in motion ends up on the run side) or passing (shotgun-spread). we did not run enough out of the shotgun or pass enough out of the standard formation. I could call the type of play 80% of the time; what is it like for professional coaches? Alex is not good enough (not yet) to make passing plays obvious. Peyton and Warner, fine, they can look off DB’s, read defenses and their blitzes, call audibles, and arc their short passes over their more effective O-lines.
2) And where is the draw (QB & RB)?
3) Our OL isn’t good enough to run an empty backfield; that just guarantees the 6-7 man blitz.
4) And why are there no Reciever options for when the DB/LB over them is blitzing? That way they can train Smith (for next year) to read where the blitz comes from and deliver the pass to that empty area (ala Peyton and Warner).
5) I’m afraid Smith just isn’t accurate enough, or puts a good arc or touch on the ball. No one is afraid of his deep ball except straight down the middle to VD.
6) Offensive rule #1: Stay with the run when it is working.
Deep ball
To defend Alex just a little (and I mean a little) bit, the deep ball that he threw to (towards?) VD for the INT, it did look a little like VD gave up on the ball. Receivers are taught that if there’s no way they will catch the pass, something in them should click and they should be able to turn from receiver to DB when necessary. That pass looked to be mostly timing as well, and it appeared that VD wasn’t looking for the throw. Alex does have numerous issues he needs to work on, but I think the overall effort needs to be there too.
The D-Walker fumble was another example. . .
jimmy raye
jimmy has done what he can. the turnovers and lack of strong leadership on the offense is horrible. alex smith carries himself like a little boy and doesnt have a commanding pressense that the players believe in.
You almost feel like
Alex looks too humble out there. He needs to get a bit of an attitude even though he hasn’t warranted having one yet. Adopt a little bit of VD’s mentality!
Yeah
But it has to be hard to develop an attitude of commanding the field when everytime your HC is asked if your the guy the answer is [insert balk here]. I really like Mike Sing’s never look back attitude when addressing mistakes and holding everyone accountable for their play or mistakes but what would it hurt to give your QB the confidence of knowing that he is the guy for a schedule that is down to St. Lose and Detract?
oh god...
here we go with armchair psychologist.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 21, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions
Is that psychologist
Or psycho?? :) I almost feel the latter might be more appropriate/effective for this team.
whatever
its called taking control and getting everyone on the same page. is the current way working or something because the last time i cked the team really is starting to look worse and worse
take this for what it's worth...
i have a master’s in sport psychology. you (nor i) can possibly sit here and do some kind of psychological evaluation on alex smith (or any player) from a distance. rather than “reading his body language” (are you a professional poker player) or making blanket opinions about his “command of the huddle” (as if you’re in it), what’s more important than anything else for any player in a team sport are (a) confidence, and (b) chemistry. i’m encouraged based on stuff like this…
"For me, this is totally different — completely different," Smith said. "I think there were times in my past when I played similar games statistically and walked off the field and didn’t really know what happened, if that makes sense …
"I feel like I’m seeing the game well. Made some turnovers tonight, but from my perspective, I instantly knew what I’d done … I would say this is very different from anything in the past that I’ve done like this."
"I believe in Alex," tight end Vernon Davis said. "I believe in what he brings to the team. And I would love to keep things going, keep building the chemistry with Alex."
the more i hear this kind of thing coming from these two players, the more success i think they’re going to have.
and also, for all of the armchair psychology that goes on, people wildly overestimate how much of an impact a player’s “mentality” (whatever that is) has on performance. it’s not anywhere close to 50/50. it’s much closer to 90% physical and 10% mental. no matter how “commanding” he is in your eyes, his performance is always going to be mediocre until the talent on his OL is waaaaaaaay better and his receivers stop dropping balls.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 21, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions
disagree
football is mostly mental all these men are gifted physically thats why coaching is more important than talent.these guys know how to play for the most part its just believing in the task at hand.
mental
Why do you think the game is mostly mental?
by David Fucillo on Dec 21, 2009 1:41 PM PST up reply actions
war
football is a battle field and most battles are not won by numbers or sure will. its the belief of winning without a doubt. when you get into a fight if you think your going to lose then how would you ever win?
Not true
battles are won with superior tactics and resources
TACTICS/STRATEGY/RESOURCES > "believing in yourself"
Stop watching THIS IS SPARTA! That’s not reality. Pick up a credible history book.
You're big on the shallow platitudes.
But not so much with the substantive analysis. “Most” battles are NOT won by pluck and courage and indomitable spirit. That’s total BS. You’re living in a comic book world.
Battles (as if the warfare comparison holds any water) are won by superior strategy, numbers, and weaponry. Not by enthusiasm and a can-do spirit. Strategy does involve psychology.
it's not believing..
…it’s technique. I have always felt that as spectators we tend to think that if we just want it badly enough, it’s going to happen (since we have no effect on the outcome of the game) and so we believe that motivation has a lot to do with how well somebody plays. Sort of magical thinking. IMHO, it has more to do with physical ability and physical technique (which you could call mental but it’s more muscle memory than it is motivation). As someone who was a motivated but poor athlete most of my life, I may be biased.
mind over matter, military battles soldiers are told to trust the training to believe in the cause. how can you win or do anything for that matter if you dont believe in what you doing. all these guys go through similiar training there must be something more to it correct. well then what else could it be?
I don’t think they necessarily do go through similar training. Alex in a spread offense taught to make 1 or 2 reads tops per play vs. someone who comes up in more of a pro-set-based offense, the training is totally different. That is just one player at one position.
On top of that, people have different physical gifts. I personally don’t believe that the reason Adrian Peterson has so many long runs is because of his motivation (just an example).
I would argue that the one thing that is mostly constant between teams is motivation: the same incentives are generally there…play-offs, money based on production, respect of other players, etc. This doesn’t totally apply late in the season when some teams are already out of contention or have clinched a spot, but in general it holds true across the league.
haha...
honestly, why do i bother to engage you in any kind of logical, fact-based debate.
Danny — i’ve spent 5 years of my life immersed in sport psychology research, so, based on that, i believe X
mdeasy — i believe Y
Danny — it’s invalid (and actually unethical according to APA) to play armchair psyhologist
mdeasy — whatever, i am an armchair psychologist
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 21, 2009 1:47 PM PST up reply actions
Verdict of the 2009 49ers season
. . . his performance is always going to be mediocre until the talent on his OL is waaaaaaaay better and his receivers stop dropping balls.
On defense, getting rid of Mark Roman for a quality safety will eliminate two huge failures in the passing defense each game. To be a 100% fair, Roman wouldn’t be a such liability if Michael Lews wasn’t a slow safety himself and Goldson wasn’t out of position so many times. I’d go as far to say if the 49ers can upgrade the safety position they might become the top defense in the league. Since Berry is no longer a draft possibility the 49ers might as well load up and go after the kid in St. Louis and use the 2 1st round picks on other positions.
i know a lot of people here hate him...
but, i was listening to damon bruce after the game last night, and he made a point that’s similar to what you’re making here, but broader. it’s also something i’ve agreed with for some time.
basically, he thinks that what the 49ers really need to do this offseason is get rid of these “loser legacy” players who’ve been around on the roster despite having never done anything positive of note to help the team win. like
mark roman (mentioned by damon)
arnaz battle (mentioned by damon)
adam snyder (added by me)
tony wragge (added by me)
isaac sopoaga (added by me)
all of these guys are just “hangers on,” and just basically collect a paycheck from the niners because they know they’d never even make the roster of another NFL team.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 21, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions
I thought...
People have been saying that Sop has been playing decently. Not big on sack numbers, at all, but helping us maintain one of the better run defenses in the league. Would he really not get picked up anywhere else?
Sopoaga
I’ll try and find some comments on it, but I recall reading a lot of positives about Sopoaga this season. That he’s been performing well (as opposed to the other 4).
by David Fucillo on Dec 21, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
yeah, i've heard the same...
however…i’m saying that he’s easily expendable and we’ve been waiting how many years now for him to be any kind of impact player? to me, he’s just like battle. we’ve been waiting for battle to be an effective starting WR or #3 WR for how long???? it’s just time to cut bait with these kind of perennial non-play-making guys.
i realize that DE in a 3-4 is basically the least “play-making” position on the field, but, compare soap’s performance to justin smith. you hear smith’s name all the time during the broadcast. i think i’ve heard soap’s name once in the past 4 years.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 21, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions
I’d keep Sop, he’s not a play maker but he’s not a liability on the defense and the line always needs bodies to rotate in.
Getting rid of Roman, Battle and Wragge is a must. My biggest issue with Snyder is he is being used as starting tackle, he is a backup. He can probably play some good snaps at guard while being an emergency at tackle. I’d like to see the team add a player at Guard who could actually push Baas and Rachal at the starting positions, maybe competition will force them to get better.
i get the soap sentiment...
i just have one question:
how many players in the NFL could the niners replace him with and get the same performance?
ok, 2 questions:
how many college players coming out in the draft could the niners replace him with and get the same performance?
teams that keep non-play-making hangers on around for years and years are called “mediocre.” the niners shouldn’t be content to stay mediocre at his position. it’s about always trying to improve. i root for soap. i agree he’s never been a defensive liability. but, is it really the point of roster management to just have a bunch of guys who “aren’t a liability?” they need guys who are having a positive impact, not guys who are preventing a negative impact.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 21, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions
p.s.
this last statement is why i think, in the long run, smith is a better choice than hill. hill is the definition of “preventing a negative impact.” smith’s talent level opens up the possibility (which remains to be seen) that the niners can get a positive impact out of the QB position.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 21, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions
Balmer?
Do they try and plug in Balmer there?
As for Wragge, I think they like him because of his flexibility around the offensive line (unless they think Cody Wallace will ever amount to anything as a backup).
by David Fucillo on Dec 21, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions
It may be time
Will Wallace ever suit up for a game and play? And for next year, along with Balmer might RJF be a major part of the D-line rotation, to say nothing of a drafted player.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
The biggest case for keeping Soap is competent, no liability defensive tackles are hard to come by. Teams like the Colts and Jets line up guys each week that offenses attack and attack because they cannot hold up. Offenses just run the ball down their throats.
If the 49ers can find someone better than ok, but usually it requires taking a chance on a high round pick or getting lucky. If Balmer or RJF can supplant him than it’s a plan. Even with that said, teams hold onto defensive linemen who can play a little like gold because when you don’t have one it’s devastating.
Agree with most
Roman: yes. Not only the play or two in every close loss he allows on defense but he also plays ST. Extra speed from his position may help our coverage/return units.
Battle: Yes. There are better players to be had.
Snyder: I’m fine with him being a backup Guard but he can no longer be in the starting lineup. He would still be on an NFL roster.
Wragge: No problem with him staying unless we plan on adding four OL (two new starters and two new backups).
Sop: He should be a backup DE and play on goalline defense. But he gets zero pressure on the QB thus the defense has no pass rush on early downs. He also would be on an NFL roster.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Cause I think the Panthers will win 7 games
Their draft pick isn’t low enough now with 6 wins to reasonably expect Berry to still be around. The Saint’s just clinched home field advantage with the Vikings loss so don’t expect them to play Week 17 against the Panthers. Last nights game with a {site decorum} double loss!
My other thought is this could be a blessing in disguise. The huge problem last offseason was the 49ers didn’t know how to handle free agency because they had no clue what was going to turn up in the draft. They guessed OT and got WR.
Now that safety of choice seems unlikely to be available so target a good one in free agency. With O.J. Atogwe being on IR his price tag probably just dropped and lets be honest, even if he came back average he’s still a major upgrade for the 49ers.
I dont get it… so if the niners don’t get berry, they’re screwed? I mean, there are other options in the draft… people here make it seem like there’s a HUGE problem if they dont get him
Safety is a huge problem for the 49ers. An impact player at that position would make an immediate difference. It doesn’t have to come via draft, but they need an answer from some place.
understandable
But everyone here is making it a big deal that if Berry isn’t there, THEN THEY ARE SCREWED!!
It took Goldson three years
How willing are we to believe that Reggie Smith could take Roman’s spot in nickel and ST? That would solve one issue in the secondary. Or Curtis Taylor perhaps? I know we want established veterans or big time draft picks but maybe one or both of these guys can get it done. Nothing like having someone who has been in the system more than one season.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Right, how do we know if Reggie Smith can take the job or not… WE DONT KNOW, same with Curtis Taylor, i agree… I think just the name Eric Berry and seeing what he does on youtube impresses everyone… but in reality, we don’t know what’s up with people on the team already, Smith is young, Taylors a rookie… so yea, who knows what they can do
Don't get me wrong
I’ll take Berry in a second. But I don’t think he’ll be available for either 1st round pick and I do not want to trade both just to move up for a safety.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Basically..
Everything has to be perfect for Smith to be able to function as a real NFL QB?
Jeebus, now we’re getting into his psychology.
How about this? Have Smith pretend he is a deer, and have him stand in front of an Escalade until he stops fearing it.
Well, we're waiting....
I wouldn't say perfect
I’d put Smith in the class of Eli Manning. He needs major help from the rest of the team to reach the fringe of a Top 10 performing QB. In other words, he needs a running game, good offensive line and good passing targets or his deficiencies are going to continually pop up in games.
I was just going to post
comparing Eli and Smith. Both are intelligent, capable of making beautiful throws at times, but also inconsistent and have a TV presence that leaves a little to be desired. They have a similar aw-shucks kind of look when passes are incomplete. May were talking about Eli as a bust, until he won that SB. But he had a better team and better coaching around him. Starting with the lines, both sides.
That SB ring masks a lot of Eli's problems
He’s not at all accurate. He has as many bad games as good games. He’s also not a very good QB in bad weather. Eli’s poor throwing was also masked by the 6’6 Plaxico Burress range and the Giants knew this better than anyone. Eli throws as many high passes over the middle in traffic as Alex Smith. He also throws more outside passes into the dirt. Eli does go on better streaks than Alex.
i agree with you
i would say he is streaky in terms of his accuracy, sort of like Smith but not quite as bad at this point. early on I remember him being pretty similar. both can make an occasional perfect deep throw, but also mess up the short routes on a regular basis.
eli has had a lot more to lean on in terms of his teammates though, and they managed to win a superbowl.
both were top draft picks, meaning that the draft is not necessarily an easy fix, and other teams are not going to give up a franchise QB in free agency.
Glad I'm not the only one who noticed.
His SB was more about his running game and D-lines ability to pass rush than him own ability.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Smith still has a ton of mechanical issues..
along with his in game management issues. Eli is a much more fundamentally sound QB, who also plays in a tougher media market, and in a tougher division.
Smith would be toast if he was in NY.
Well, we're waiting....
you could be right about that
they would likely not have waited 5 years in NY to see what they were going to get, injuries or no. i still don’t think we are likely to get anyone better at QB next season. and mechanically, i would have to go back to tape from 3 years ago, but you may be right.
i still think eli grew up with a much stronger O line/running game and more consistent coaching and these were major parts of his success. he cannot score in the redzone anymore without Plax and the fade route.
Smith reminds me of Sasha Vujacic..
A streaky shooter who shows flashes of promise, but still lacks a ton in fundamentals whp still tends to drive the ball into 3 defenders and turning the ball over. Basically, you don’t want him with the ball for an extended period of minutes or in crucial situations, and he isn’t a true starter either.
Well, we're waiting....
You know… i realllllly hate Sasha, he acts like a cocky son of a bitch…. that’s just me… sorry, hate the lakers
+1
Alex is too good a person a too little a prick for the Sasha comparison,
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
More like recalling that Sasha
Uses Ray Allen’s jock to wipe away his tears. You’re focused on the wrong man.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Wow..
You really are one horrid poster.
BTW, I recall Smith being a baby a few years ago. Something about a Cowardly Lion.
Well, we're waiting....
Well, that's Sasha..
Believe me, he is better on the bench, and I think his contract keeps him on the team.
But he still reminds me of Smith, not in the baby sense, but how he still does not get the game.
Well, we're waiting....
Well, at least we agree on something, Sasha is a baby… there’s no team i hate more… well aside from the Dodgers, than the Los Angeles Lakers and their BS fans, you may be an exception, but i’m JUST SAYIN :)… ehhh Smith i guess is kinda like that, but Smith showed maturity by taking a cut in pay
Sasha sucks ass..
Every time he has the ball in his hands, you cringe. Every time he shoots, you say DON’T TAKE THAT SHOT YOU !!!
I feel that same way with Smith.
Well, we're waiting....
I don't recall Smith crying during a game
But I recall Sasha doing so in the Finals, Kinda funny after his occasional cheap shots. Which makes him like you. Take a shot, act tough, get beat, cry the night away. Or in your case, make an off base insult toward another poster. I’ll take Smith on my team over Sasha any day.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Holy crap..
I don’t take cheap shots. I hit where it hurts.
Case in point is your responses.
Sorry for picking on widdle ’ol Smith dude, but he is still a mediocre backup QB who will probably be replaced like Hill was during next season.
Remember my thoughts on Hill?
Well, we're waiting....
BTW, you have to make it to the Finals first..
The 49ers aren’t gonna get there this season, are they?
Well, we're waiting....
I don't care about Smith
Or your opinion on him. I’m not his defender. My responses weren’t about Alex. I’m pointing out that Sasha is a bad comparison becasue he’s a weak little twerp. It was about Sasha. Thus:
You’re focused on the wrong man.
And:
Alex is too good a person a too little a prick for the Sasha comparison
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
I'm pointing out..
How I compare them to their respective abilities as far as potential, and how they fail to fully understand the game they play.
The difference is Smith has been coddled until Nolan told him to grow a pair.
Well, we're waiting....
In Smith's defense...
He was really hurt and Mike Nolan basically said “your shoulder will magically heal itself, now go play.” Nolan was surprised when this became a disaster.
i think...
Everything has to be perfect
is just a tad bit of an extrapolation from what i said he needed. i think you’d acknowledge that (a) a competent OL, and (b) a receiving corps that doesn’t drop pass after pass, is neither (a) representative of “perfection,” nor (b) “everything” required to be a “real NFL QB.”
it’s not about having to be in the “perfect” situation. it’s about having competence at key positions that impact the passing game. you can argue that alex smith himself is an example of “incompetence at a key position that impacts the passing game.” you may very well be right. all i know is that the offense has looked (and has been statistically) light years better with smith as the QB and shotgun as the primary formation than at any time in the past 6 years. give him a competent OL and work out VD’s “dropsies,” and i think they can be a really good offense next year with smith. would i like for them to have drew brees instead? of course. but, last time i checked, no brees-like QB is or will be available in the near future.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 22, 2009 8:13 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
IMO, for things to be perfect..
Is to not build the offense around Smith, but to build an offense he and the other QB’s have to adapt and learn in. Putting all the eggs in the Smith basket hasn’t worked, like say signing Dilfer to mentor they guy, only to have him start later due to Smith getting injured and then going into subsequent disaster.
Well, we're waiting....
as far as the last 2 games go...
the niners’ “balance” isn’t rocket science. in the ARI game, they were winning the whole game, so gore got a lot of carries. in the PHI game, they were losing the whole game, so gore didn’t get as many carries. it’s really that simple. here’s a handy list of stats to prove my point even beyond the last 2 games:
@ ARI — niners up 13-6 after 1st half; gore ends with 22 carries (12 in 2nd half)
vs. SEA — niners up 13-10 after 1st half; gore ends with 16 carries (5 in 2nd half)
@ MIN — niners up 14-13 after 1st half; coffee ends with 25 carries (16 in 2nd half)
vs. STL — niners up 7-0 after 1st half; coffee ends with 24 carries (13 in 2nd half)
vs. ATL — niners down 35-10 after 1st half; coffee ends with 12 carries (2 in 2nd half)
@ HOU — niners down 21-0 after 1st half; gore ends with 13 carries (8 in 2nd half)
@ IND — niners up 14-9 after 1st half; gore ends with 13 carries (4 in 2nd half)
vs. TEN — niners up 17-10 after 1st half; gore ends with 15 carries (7 in 2nd half)
vs. CHI — niners up 7-3 after 1st half; gore ends with 25 carries (17 in 2nd half)
@ GB — niners down 23-3 after 1st half; gore ends with 7 carries (2 in 2nd half)
vs. JAX — niners up 17-3 after 1st half; gore ends with 16 carries (9 in 2nd half)
@ SEA — niners tied 14-14 after 1st half; gore ends with 9 carries (5 in 2nd half)
vs. ARI — niners up 17-0 after 1st half; gore ends with 25 carries (12 in 2nd half)
@ PHI — niners down 20-3 after 1st half; gore ends with 16 carries (6 in 2nd half)
TOTALS
in games with halftime lead = 181 total carries, 85 in 1st half, 96 in 2nd half
in games with halftime tie or deficit = 57 total carries, 34 in 1st half, 23 in 2nd half
PERCENTAGES
in games with halftime lead = 52.5% of carries in 2nd half
in games with halftime tie or deficit = 40.4% of carries in 2nd half
so, when they’re up at halftime, gore (or whoever their #1 RB is at the time) will get 10% more of his carries while preserving the lead in the 2nd half. if there’s anything to complain about, it’s that they haven’t run the ball enough in the 2nd half of games where they have a halftime lead. that 52.5% seems ridiculously low given the norm around the league. regardless, though, complaining about “gore not getting enough carries overall” misses the point entirely.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 21, 2009 1:17 PM PST reply actions
I understand your point
And yes, if the balance of plays does end up being a bit more lopsided than it should be, so be it. I know it seems almost impossible to come even within less than 10% of 50/50 in play selection. However, the point I made earlier in this post is that regardless of what point in the game it is, every situation needs to be approached with a mentality of balance. A good example was that 3rd and 2 that I’m 99.5% sure I heard (I was on the road at the time) was run out of the shotgun and they passed. Sure they want to conserve time and try to get the ball as far downfield in as little time as possible. But it just seems like if they don’t go about it in a way that has apparently been working for them, they’re not really conserving time, they’re wasting it by risking giving that time to the opponent’s offense!
well, yeah...
as fooch said in the article, i’m a firm believer in “true balance” over “statistical balance.” true balance is being able to run or pass effectively at any time, and that’s much more important than just having some artificial goal of 50/50 run vs. pass or whatever.
my point in that comment was about “statistical balance,” since a lot of people complain that gore should be getting the ball more overall, as if “gore carries X number of times” will equal a 16-0 season for the niners next year. i just wanted to show that he gets the ball more when they’re winning at halftime, and gets it less when they’re losing/tied at halftime, which is essentially the truth around the league. teams run when they’re winning, they don’t win they’re running.
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 21, 2009 1:44 PM PST up reply actions
thanks for the stats
I’m curious to see what our first half pass/run splits look like. That should tell us more about what our intended “balance” is supposed to be, since the second half splits are more influenced by the score.
It just feels to me that we’re trying too much to pass in the beginning to build a lead, and then run when we get a lead. And when that fails to give us the lead, we end up passing even more to get back into the game. That turns us into the most pass-heavy team in the league (if I remember the TV graphic correctly), and that’s not a recipe for success for this particular squad.
I’d much rather prefer to run to build a lead, pass if we’re behind, and run some more if we’re ahead. Frank Gore is tied for 5th in YPC, but only 21st is CPG. Something doesn’t add up here. And it isn’t because our defense is always putting us in a hole either, our defense is above average.
"We Deserve"
Is it just me?
Or is Gore somewhat of an inconsistent back? As in, he has great runs at times but tends to get stuffed right at the line for a yard 2/3 of the time and then break off a 25-yard run? It is difficult to “stick with the running game” with this type of a back (vs. Brandon Jacobs-style as of 2007/2008) as you will get a lot of three and outs or at least 3rd and longs. I haven’t done a statistical look at Gore, but that was definitely my sense watching the last few games.
IMHO, this would make him better utilized as an alternative to passing rather than closer to 50/50. His long runs will be seen as enough of a threat to keep the defense honest if we can catch some more of our short passes. Plus, the more carries per year, the shorter Gore’s career will be. Plus, he’s a pretty good blocker (except that Trent Cole whiff) and can catch a pass now and then.
I think Raye is on the right track in terms of balance lately, we just keep dropping balls or there is clear miscommunication between Smith and receivers (last two games we had two plays that were the reverse of each other, both a short stop by Crabs on the left…one he ran further than the throw, the other he stopped and Smith threw past him). Training camp should help that.
man
we shouldnt need a dynasty to win some games. yes every team has trouble spots in sf’s case o-line,qb position.
every where else you could pick and make points to improve but if we had a francise qb we could easily be a playoff team.
I don't think anyone really disagrees with what you are saying
I think the question really is more about how best to use the top draft picks we have. I’m not sure bradford/claussen (if they fell to us) would necessarily be better than alex and QB is a difficult position to project based on college performance, as we all know at this point. Any draft pick would likely not have an impact at QB next year anyway, and rushing Davis risks a repeat of the Alex Smith experience.
well
i agree with never knowing about college kids making the transition to the nfl. but hoping to exspect different results from the same player year over year is insane. man up the guy is not who they drafted him to be ok so admit it move on. they have try new things to get different results not just thinking things are going to change because of time. he has more time to study and learn from the sidlines and has has enough on the field chances to prove himself and for me we need some new blood or vet from somewhere to work with.
Your basic premise is flawed and ignores NFL history. Many quarterbacks have gone through difficult times and then done very well. Quarterbacks are very dependent on system and situation.
On offense, we need a tackle and a guard, and perhaps a WR who can get separation. QB is way down on the list.
Drew Brees has been through a lot. Right now he is playing behind a powerful offensive line. Offensive line matters a lot.
So frustrating
The play calling in my opinion was mostly terrible! Im not a bandwagon type of fan, but this game was not the kind of balance we needed and it hasnt been for most of the season. The line is weak, and needs to be addressed in the draft for sure, as well as the secondary. We need young talent that can be developed into solid playmakers/pro bowl caliber, not a bunch of hasbeens and almost could be older guys.
As long as Raye is the coordinator he has my support as a fan, but i still disagree with a lot of his situational play calling. You have to be able to use the run to set up the pass when you know you need to, and you have to use the pass to set up the run as well. We cant do that because of a lot of things, execution is one, the line is one and play calling is another. How is running the ball up the middle two to three times in a row while only gaining 1 and 2 yards a carry good football play calling?
Gore is a great RB with outstanding receiver skills, but his style of running isnt always effective. As most fans already know, the biggest reason why Gore has a 5 yard average is because of his big runs that are too few and far between. Most of the time he’s barley getting a handful of yards, and that is because of play calling and Gores running style. We need another feature back that has a Reggie Bush type of style to offset Gore and give defenses more to think about in the running game then just one cut and run. Gore gets stuffed more times then he should…..go back to the 2 back sets and mix in the spread, you can give both different looks to accomplish both a run or a pass from either formation.
by 49ersfanFURlife on Dec 21, 2009 8:20 PM PST reply actions
How can anyone be Fine with this...???
Where are the people that understand Winning Football ? Alex Smith looks pretty good at times… so does Jamarcus Russel !!! Any QB in the league can look good at times and get into a rhythm but that’s not what makes a winning QB. Understanding, reading and adjusting to defenses wins football games. Poise & patience wins football games. Alex Smith has NOT improved in any of these attributes since we drafted him. I’m sorry we blew a #1, but that’s life…move on !!! If anyone out there studied Smith from the beginning they would see this. He is not up to NFL speed and never will be. I can barely watch as he gives away game after game that we should have won. Yes, we have other problems, like finding our offensive identity, the O-line ect., but let’s at least be real about our blunder at QB.
Nine mile skid, on a ten mile ride ... Hot as a pistol but cool inside
Draft
1a: OT
1b:WR
2:CB
3:S
4:CB
5:OG
6:OT
7:NT
by DemetriusLonnie on Dec 21, 2009 10:16 PM PST reply actions
IS IT ME or is MICHEAL Crabtree Slow?
SLOW IS MY MOM!
by DemetriusLonnie on Dec 21, 2009 10:28 PM PST reply actions
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