49ers-Eagles: Third down failures
by David Fucillo on Dec 22, 2009 10:00 AM PST
in San Francisco 49ers News
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PrintThere was plenty to be disappointed about on Sunday. The defense gave up some back-breaking scores, the punt return game was non-existent, and the offense struggled to get any semblance of a passing game going. If we want to focus in one particular problem, it might as well be their third down conversion rate. Last night I came to the conclusion that I'm way too happy right now and need to be brought down a notch or 20. So, I thought I'd take a look back at every 49ers offensive 3rd down (offensive is definitely the right word for it). The 49ers managed an impressive 0-for-11 showing on 3rd down conversions. They had 12 first downs, but one of them was converted on a defensive pass interference call, so it doesn't count in the stat.
I've posted each of the situations after the jump. The two similarities in all of them? The shotgun formation was used exclusively and the team never attempted to rush on third down. Of course, for the most part they were never really in a situation to run on these downs. Prior to the fourth quarter their shortest 3rd down attempt came on 3rd and 4, with the next closest being 3rd and 7. In the fourth quarter they did have a 3rd and 2 situation. Smith attempted a deep pass to Crabtree and got the PI call to convert, but given that they were down 2 touchdowns with under 7 minutes to play, it wasn't shocking to see them pass for it.
I'd say there are two problems in the third conversion issue. First is the issue that was driving Florida Danny crazy on Sunday: players (Josh Morgan in particular) running short of the first down marker, and thus coming up just short on conversions. The fifth 3rd down play was the first one in which a player held on to the ball and gained yards toward a first down. Crabtree made a catch on a crossing pattern (#5 below) and didn't appear to be expected to run the route anywhere but well short of the 1st down marker (it was 3rd and 14). However, Josh Morgan did make 3 appearances in this kind of situation. The first time (#6 below) he ran a kind of corner route and Smith had to throw the ball quickly, before Morgan had time to finish the route. The second time (#7), Smith again had a quick pass to him before he could pass the first down marker. The final time (#11) however was a clear cut instance of Morgan not running far enough on his route, leaving the 49ers a yard short of the first down. I'm not excusing prior instances of this, but this is definitely something Morgan has to work on in the offseason.
The other issue is the simple task of creating more manageable 3rd downs. Yes the team should be able to convert third and long situations, but a good team will create more manageable third and short situations. The team has a powerful weapon in Frank Gore, and third down is a such a huge situation. And yet, they were rarely in a situation to take advantage of Frank Gore as a running back. The team needs to do more on those earlier downs to put themselves in a position to succeed.
49ers third down attempts after the jump...
3rd down opportunities
1. 9:40, 1st quarter, 3rd and 4, PHI 33 - (Shotgun) Smith pass incomplete short right to Hill
2. 3:42, 1st quarter, 3rd and 8, SF 40 - (Shotgun) Smith pass incomplete short right
3. 7:36, 2nd quarter, 3rd and 9, SF 36 - (Shotgun) Smith pass short right intended for Davis intercepted by Samuel
4. 2:25, 2nd quarter, 3rd and 13, SF 37 - (Shotgun) Smith pass incomplete short middle to Davis
5. 12:54, 3rd quarter, 3rd and 14, PHI 47 - (Shotgun) Smith pass short left to Crabtree pushed OB at Phi 36 for 11 yards (went for and converted on 4th down on next play)
6. 10:47, 3rd quarter, 3rd and 7, PHI 11 - (Shotgun) Smith pass short right to Morgan to PHI 7 for 4 yards
7. 8:28, 3rd quarter, 3rd and 14, PHI 39 - (Shotgun) Smith pass short left to Morgan to PHI 30 for 9 yards (went for and converted on 4th down on next play)
8. 0:17, 3rd quarter, 3rd and 8, PHI 41 - (Shotgun) Smith pass incomplete short right
9. 11:20, 4th quarter, 3rd and 10, SF 33 - (Shotgun) Smith sacked at SF 25 for -8 yards
10. 6:40, 4th quarter, 3rd and 2, SF 21 - (Shotgun) Smith pass incomplete deep right to Crabtree (defensive pass interference, automatic first down at PHI 35)
11. 5:51, 4th quarter, 3rd and 6, PHI 31 - (Shotgun) Smith pass short middle to Morgan to PHI 26 for 5 yards
12. 3:54, 4th quarter, 3rd and 7, PHI 22 - (Shotgun) Smith pass incomplete short middle to Davis
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Most of the passes were either short right, or short to the middle. Were they trying to stay away from the left side? Or is Smith just looking at his first read, and going to it every time? Of course, it could be bad play calling, poor pass protection, and bad WR coaching…. or a combination of everything, because this team has had trouble on 3rd down the whole season, even before Smith took over.
I was noticing the same thing. i would like to see a chart on Alex’s tendencies…from what I’ve seen- he seems to roll right a ton, but I am also afraid that it might be me drawing inferences based on a limited scope.
He was successful with Turner rolling to his right....
I keep hearing however, that the Niners don’t move the pocket enough, so I’m guessing it’s not happening as much.
However, I’m also curious as to know how often he goes to his 2nd and 3rd reads if ever. Is it due to no time in pocket? I’m sure that has a bit to do with it. Or is it because he locks onto his first read. I have heard he stares down receivers a lot so maybe he is just locking on his first target.
Combination of both
If a QB feels he has no time in the pocket, I would think instinctively he’s going to rely mostly on that first read and not look off defenders. I think that is what explains why his interceptions have looked so bad as of late. Sing did say this morning on KNBR something to the effect that Alex either needs to and/or will learn to trust his OL more. I know that sounds like a tall order, but I still think it’s necessary whenever possible to check down, look off defenders, pump fake, etc. because it’s a pretty significant part of what keeps defenders honest.
Trust with the O-Line...
Will be built when they start doing their jobs. I seriously think Adam Snyder was busy visiting Independence Hall and set his “Avatar” (yes, FOX now owes me $.25) to play RT instead.
by sigma on Dec 22, 2009 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I think it’s a combination of predictability and poor route running. Playing out of the same formation on every third down isn’t gonna fool anyone, and Alex Smith has the terrible habit of eyeing down his reciever before throwing to him. And as you said, recievers finishing their routes short of the first down marker is inexcusable.
By the way, I know this is off-topic, but have any of you seen the video posted on Matt Maiocco’s twitter? It shows two 49er fans getting pelted with snowballs at the Eagles game, and it made me a lot angrier than I thought I’d be. I really don’t know what is wrong with people from Philadelphia.
"Any time I watch a game on television, I have to turn the commentators off. They say 'he's playing well' and I'm thinking 'no, he's not.' My advice to anyone is don't listen to the experts, just watch the game and gather your own opinion."
-Roy Keane
where can i find that vid?
It’s amazing what some fans think they can do because they buy a ticket. hope they get kicked out for life. as cold as it was that snowball probably felt like a beer bottle
by srill waiting on Dec 22, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions
I heard
On the radio that it was announced that anyone caught throwing snowballs would be prosecuted (assault & battery?) Which sounds logical considering how it feels to be hit by something frozen.
I doubt that.
That is a wild stadium. You have to have guts to root for the niners there.
I would bet dollars to donuts that many fans threw the hardest packed ice-snowballs they could make at 49er players and i doubt that one of them was disciplined in any way.
Probably if you hit a player your seat neighbors would buy you beers.
here it is
"Any time I watch a game on television, I have to turn the commentators off. They say 'he's playing well' and I'm thinking 'no, he's not.' My advice to anyone is don't listen to the experts, just watch the game and gather your own opinion."
-Roy Keane
by Useful_Idiot on Dec 22, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
thanks
i can’r beleive that. wow. and of all jerseys PW AND CRABS aweful.
by srill waiting on Dec 23, 2009 6:26 AM PST up reply actions
probably the most disappointing part of the game
yeah there were turnovers, penalties whatever else. but when a team cannot complete 1 3rd down it just kills a team. demoralizes them and let’s face it, keeps our D on the field way too long. granted we got what…3 1st downs out of 4 which is great but come on.
does anyone know
where we rank as far as time of posession for the season?
I'd be interested in looking at
The plays previous to the third downs because on all but two the down would be considered 3rd and long (more than five yards). I commented on a previous post that maybe the Niners should approach every down as if it were third down because I wouldn’t be surprised if not just them, but the majority of teams in the league don’t play with much urgency on 1st and 2nd down as they would on 3rd, thereby putting too much pressure on themselves to convert.
But I’m glad I saw this because I had felt the Niners weren’t calling plays in critical situations that played to what was working for them (running). But after seeing this, I feel like they almost had no other option!
Strange but true:
Tommy Protho, an old coach at Oregon, UCLA, and the Rams was known for punting on third down (although, maybe not while with the Rams). His strange logic was third and long was too dangerous, and he had a better chance of recovering a fumble than making a first down. BTW he was sometime referred to as a football genius.
Pooch kicks
I seem to see a lot more of those in college. Colt McCoy did it twice against Nebraska in the Big 12 championship.
Play calling
The biggest reason for horrable 3rd down conversion is bad play calling. Jimmy Raye just does not have what it takes to keep a defence guessing.
Philly is the best in the league on 3rd down defense,
I believe.
Their blitz packages were intense and unusual, and not picked up well by our Oline.
“We were able to get some pressure on the quarterback and, at times, move that pocket, and that becomes tough,” coach Andy Reid said yesterday, a day after the Eagles handled the 49ers, 27-13. “That’s a tough thing on a quarterback, when you put him into a full run.”
For example:
“White shot through untouched because San Francisco’s blocking became discombobulated. Rachal and Heitmann could have picked up White, but both appeared to focus on defenders – Witherspoon and end Jason Babin – who dropped back into coverage instead of rushing the passer.”
Way too many 3rd and longs
That’s the obvious answer, also too many 3rd and > 10s. Out of the the shotgun on a 3rd and 15, Smith has to throw the ball 21 or more yards. He’s just not accurate enough to complete those in most cases. We have a limited # of plays out of the shotgun and so the defense pretty much knows what’s coming on 3rd and long. So, bottom line: poor play calling poor execution and a QB who can’t play under center on 3rd down.
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