49ers-Lions: 49ers are 12 point favorites

by David Fucillo on Dec 23, 2009 10:00 AM PST in San Francisco 49ers News

Well then. I'm not sure if that is confidence in the 49ers at home, or lack of confidence in the Lions on the road (or really just in general). Bodog has the 49ers as 12 point favorites at the moment. I did some poking around and it looks like the 49ers actually opened as a 10.5 point favorite, so the money would appear to be coming in on the 49ers. Whatever the case, you're not going to win much money on the 49ers betting on this game.

In the meantime, here are some gambling stats heading into this week, courtesy of Capper's Picks and TheSpread.com (ATS - against the spread; SU - straight up). I actually found a link that provides even more useful gambling information.:

San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
San Francisco is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
San Francisco is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 12 games on the road
Detroit is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Detroit is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Detroit is 36-55 ATS in games played on a grass field since 1992
Detroit is 4-14 ATS in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992

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Comments

Never want to say the "G" word but

Can this look more like a guaranteed win (other than St. Louis) than any other game the Niners have played this year? It is the NFL though (I refuse to say the cliche.)

by Mangoman on Dec 23, 2009 10:34 AM PST reply actions

i thought you were going with "gimme’

by srill waiting on Dec 23, 2009 10:36 AM PST up reply actions

Nah

That’s more like golf. But I think the “G” word in golf will soon become “girlfriend”. :D

by Mangoman on Dec 23, 2009 10:38 AM PST up reply actions

nice

by srill waiting on Dec 23, 2009 10:39 AM PST up reply actions

I'm sure the Cards said the same thing

Then they almost lost.

by thegame1921 on Dec 23, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions

I thought Seattle was a lock

..Until the last drive of the game.

by masa11284 on Dec 23, 2009 1:46 PM PST up reply actions

Spread makes sense

Niners have won at home this season by 13, 35, 17 and 15. Only the Bears game was close and they only scored 6 points. Interestingly, in the five home wins the ten points by Seattle is the most allowed. And now Stanton may start at QB so the Niners should win by 12+ points.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Dec 23, 2009 12:39 PM PST reply actions

nothing this club does is sure thing.....

Going into this match, the Niners should call it in. There’s nowhere to go and nothing on the table but a good chance to see the third team play. Besides going 6-10 will bring us up on drafting day, and THAT’S what we need now, more draft picks. The rebuilding of the Niners is an on going venture, thanks to Managements lack of scouting talents. Jed and his fathers choices have all proven to be a bust, so the beat(ings)goes on…Speaking of busts Sing and Raye with Alex by their side is an offering of an new award ceremony, at least.

by Guardangel on Dec 23, 2009 1:08 PM PST reply actions

I would take the Niners to cover, and the Over

This game should be SF 45 – DET 10. If it’s not, there’s a problem.

Alex Smith may have been the #1 overall pick but he still can’t tell why kids love Cinnamon Toast Crunch.

by Andrew Davidson on Dec 23, 2009 1:36 PM PST reply actions

You know you're on the hook for that right?

That’s the most points the Niners would have scored this year! I hope it happens though, should be fun to watch.

by Mangoman on Dec 23, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions

Too little for Detroit too actually.

by Amigo on Dec 23, 2009 4:05 PM PST up reply actions

ok

give the Lions 17 points. Drew Stanton is starting, so I don’t see them putting up much.

Alex Smith may have been the #1 overall pick but he still can’t tell why kids love Cinnamon Toast Crunch.

by Andrew Davidson on Dec 23, 2009 11:39 PM PST up reply actions

Whens the last time the niners were that many points favorite??? Jeeze it feels like it’s been FOREVER, and this is ONLY because the lions blow so much… but wow

by PiKAgiant on Dec 23, 2009 1:43 PM PST reply actions

I actually think there’s quite a bit of value left in the 49ers -12. Not quite enough for me to add it to my wagers this week, but just about. It’s true that the Niners opened as 10.5 point favorites, but only among the offshore (online) books. In Vegas, however, the 49ers were favored by as much as 13 points in the opening lines of places like the M Resort Casino. There really hasn’t been an overwhelming amount of money placed on the Niners to cover; only 62% of the dollars at the time I’m writing this. The professional bettors have only steamed about a half point off the pick. The majority of the moneyline cash have definitely gone towards Detroit though (93%), considering that they’re as much as +550 line dogs in some books.

My suggestion would be to bet in accordance with my prediction that the 49ers will win by a 17 point margin, and thereby cover. You could even hedge your bet a bit by throwing a couple bucks on the Lions line and hope it’s not a close game.

by Chimneyfish on Dec 24, 2009 1:00 AM PST reply actions