Singletary’s Formula for Success through 14 Games
by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 26, 2009 3:24 PM PST
in 49ers Statistical Preview and Review
Email
PrintAUTHOR'S NOTE: FYI...here's today's bowl game thread if you want to join the conversation.
Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers are doing according to Mike Singletary's Formula for Success. For those that don't remember Singletary's Formula for Success, here it is:
- Total Ball Security
- Execute
- Dominate the Trenches
- Create Good Field Position
- Finish
It's that time of year again. You know, the time of year when the 49ers have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. If we've been paying attention at all for the past few seasons, we all know how the rest of the season will go. The Niners will beat the Lions and Rams, and everyone will be soooooo excited about 2010 based on a strong finish to 2009, which puts them at a standards-have-been-lowered-beyond-all-recognition "non-losing" record of 8-8.
As a symbolic protest against the 49ers' continued satisfaction with mediocrity, and given that said mediocrity can be traced to inadequate performance with respect to their head coach's Formula, I'm going to be mailing in the rest of the season too. All you'll be seeing from me is this post and 1 more in-season Formula post. In other words, to (dis)honor our favorite 8-8 team, I'm going to be an 8-8 writer for the rest of the season; all mediocrity all the time. Don't worry, though. I'll be back to my 12-4 form once the season ends, with all my usual season recap, draft, and offseason posts.
So, for this post, I'm just going to post the Adjusted BS Rates for the entire league, and present the Niners' Formula for Success stats. I'll spend more time commenting on the BS stuff because week-to-week fluctuations in Niner stats are - at this point - meaningless when we already know how the story ends. Wait, I guess that makes it BS too. Perfect.
After the jump, the BS...
ADJUSTED BS RATES
Below you'll find Adjusted Ball Security (BS) Rates, Unadjusted BS Rates, Fumble Rates (FR), Interception Rates (IR), and Adjusted IRs for each NFL team through 14 games (Niner stats and top 8 for each category in bold; bottom 8 for each category in italics):
|
Team |
Adj BS Rate |
Last Wk |
W-L |
BS Rate |
Rk |
FR |
Rk |
IR |
Rk |
Adj IR |
Rk |
|
|
1 |
NE |
98.82% |
2 |
9-5 |
98.30% |
5 |
1.41% |
4 |
2.27% |
7 |
0.73% |
1 |
|
2 |
MIN |
98.77% |
1 |
11-3 |
98.66% |
1 |
1.27% |
2 |
1.47% |
3 |
1.12% |
4 |
|
3 |
IND |
98.48% |
4 |
14-0 |
98.33% |
4 |
0.93% |
1 |
3.00% |
20 |
2.59% |
17 |
|
4 |
SD |
98.43% |
3 |
11-3 |
98.41% |
2 |
1.38% |
3 |
2.02% |
6 |
1.97% |
9 |
|
5 |
DAL |
98.39% |
7 |
9-5 |
98.15% |
7 |
2.04% |
14 |
1.46% |
2 |
0.74% |
2 |
|
6 |
ATL |
98.35% |
5 |
7-7 |
97.99% |
10 |
1.51% |
6 |
3.00% |
21 |
1.92% |
8 |
|
7 |
DEN |
98.28% |
6 |
8-6 |
98.35% |
3 |
1.51% |
5 |
1.95% |
5 |
2.19% |
11 |
|
8 |
GB |
98.18% |
14 |
9-5 |
98.29% |
6 |
1.85% |
11 |
1.41% |
1 |
1.78% |
6 |
|
9 |
PHI |
98.15% |
10 |
10-4 |
98.08% |
8 |
1.64% |
7 |
2.49% |
10 |
2.29% |
12 |
|
10 |
JAX |
98.09% |
9 |
7-7 |
97.93% |
12 |
2.31% |
20 |
1.54% |
4 |
1.05% |
3 |
|
11 |
HOU |
98.00% |
13 |
7-7 |
97.81% |
13 |
1.84% |
10 |
2.87% |
18 |
2.33% |
13 |
|
12 |
NO |
97.99% |
8 |
13-1 |
97.81% |
14 |
2.14% |
16 |
2.30% |
8 |
1.72% |
5 |
|
13 |
BAL |
97.99% |
11 |
8-6 |
98.02% |
9 |
1.70% |
8 |
2.58% |
13 |
2.70% |
19 |
|
14 |
PIT |
97.98% |
15 |
7-7 |
97.96% |
11 |
1.81% |
9 |
2.53% |
11 |
2.45% |
15 |
|
15 |
MIA |
97.81% |
12 |
7-7 |
97.38% |
19 |
2.34% |
21 |
3.26% |
22 |
1.85% |
7 |
|
16 |
NYG |
97.77% |
19 |
8-6 |
97.66% |
16 |
2.34% |
22 |
2.34% |
9 |
1.98% |
10 |
|
17 |
CIN |
97.68% |
16 |
9-5 |
97.73% |
15 |
2.15% |
17 |
2.54% |
12 |
2.73% |
21 |
|
18 |
SF |
97.60% |
17 |
6-8 |
97.50% |
17 |
2.26% |
19 |
2.99% |
19 |
2.68% |
18 |
|
19 |
CLE |
97.55% |
18 |
3-11 |
97.37% |
20 |
1.99% |
13 |
4.10% |
26 |
3.50% |
26 |
|
20 |
TEN |
97.50% |
20 |
7-7 |
97.39% |
18 |
2.53% |
26 |
2.81% |
16 |
2.42% |
14 |
|
21 |
STL |
97.44% |
21 |
1-13 |
97.36% |
21 |
2.12% |
15 |
3.73% |
25 |
3.47% |
25 |
|
22 |
WAS |
97.32% |
22 |
4-10 |
97.13% |
23 |
2.65% |
28 |
3.32% |
23 |
2.75% |
22 |
|
23 |
CAR |
97.29% |
24 |
6-8 |
97.04% |
26 |
2.21% |
18 |
4.74% |
28 |
3.90% |
28 |
|
24 |
KC |
97.24% |
27 |
3-11 |
97.19% |
22 |
2.84% |
29 |
2.74% |
15 |
2.58% |
16 |
|
25 |
BUF |
97.21% |
23 |
5-9 |
97.00% |
27 |
2.41% |
25 |
4.39% |
27 |
3.66% |
27 |
|
26 |
ARI |
97.07% |
28 |
9-5 |
97.07% |
25 |
2.97% |
30 |
2.85% |
17 |
2.85% |
23 |
|
27 |
SEA |
97.04% |
25 |
5-9 |
97.08% |
24 |
3.10% |
32 |
2.59% |
14 |
2.71% |
20 |
|
28 |
NYJ |
97.03% |
26 |
7-7 |
96.70% |
30 |
2.39% |
23 |
5.87% |
32 |
4.61% |
30 |
|
29 |
DET |
97.01% |
29 |
2-12 |
96.92% |
28 |
1.92% |
12 |
5.41% |
30 |
5.12% |
32 |
|
30 |
TB |
97.00% |
30 |
2-12 |
96.61% |
31 |
2.41% |
24 |
5.41% |
31 |
4.23% |
29 |
|
31 |
OAK |
96.85% |
31 |
5-9 |
96.83% |
29 |
3.03% |
31 |
3.49% |
24 |
3.41% |
24 |
|
32 |
CHI |
96.61% |
32 |
5-9 |
96.50% |
32 |
2.59% |
27 |
5.28% |
29 |
4.96% |
31 |
If you don't know what each of these stats mean, see my detailed explanation here.
The Patriots overtook the Vikings this week to move into the #1 spot, with the switch coming almost entirely via each team's Adjusted IR: MIN's dropped from 1st to 4th, whereas NE's rose from 3rd to 1st. Why the Adjusted IR changes? Well, mainly because NE just finished playing the highest-IR pass DEF in the NFL (the Bills), and now have faced the toughest IR strength of schedule (SOS) in the NFL. Regardless of which team is #1, however, both are clearly the best two when it comes to ball security. Namely, they're both a full 0.30% clear of the #3 team - which is a relatively huge gap when you look at the rest of the table - and they're the only 2 teams ranked in the top 8 in all of the rates in the table.
Even considering the switch at the top, 7 of the top 8 spots in the rankings are populated by the same teams as last week. The only team that fell out of the Elite 8 was the Saints, but that's to be expected after their ball security fail against the Cowboys. Speaking of the Cowboys, they're now the 5th-best team in the NFL when it comes to Total Ball Security. In the offseason, I'll look into it deeper, but I wonder how much of an impact increased ball security is having on avoiding their usual December collapse.
Other things worth mentioning are as follows:
- Through 14 games, the top 8 teams in Adjusted BS Rate have a combined record of 78-34 (69.6% winning pct), while the bottom 8 have a combined record of 40-72 (35.7%). And, interestingly enough, the combined record for the top half of the rankings (145-79, 64.7%) is exactly opposite that of the bottom half of the rankings (79-145, 35.3%).
- With the Falcons, Texans, Steelers, and Dolphins winning last week, none of the 16 teams in the top half of the Adjusted BS Rate rankings have a losing record.
- Much has been made of Jay Cutler's penchant for throwing INTs this season. What's not really talked about, though, is that the Bears also fumble the ball quite frequently when compared to the rest of the league.
- Check out the definition of mediocrity: SF's rankings.
THE REST OF THE 49ERS' FORMULA STATS
The following table displays the Niners' stats this week according to Singletary's Formula for Success, what those stats were last week, and what the extent of change was between this week's stats and last week's stats (top-8 in bold; bottom-8 in italics):
|
|
|
This Week |
|
Last Week |
|
Change |
|||
|
Formula Ingredient |
Statistic |
Value |
Rk |
Value |
Rk |
Value |
Rk |
||
|
Total Ball Security |
Adj BS Rate |
97.60% |
18 |
|
97.58% |
17 |
|
+0.02% |
-1 |
|
Total Ball Security |
BS Rate |
97.50% |
17 |
|
97.68% |
16 |
|
-0.18% |
-1 |
|
Total Ball Security |
FR |
2.26% |
19 |
|
2.20% |
18 |
|
-0.06% |
-1 |
|
Total Ball Security |
IR |
2.99% |
19 |
|
2.55% |
14 |
|
-0.44% |
-5 |
|
Total Ball Security |
Adj IR |
2.68% |
18 |
|
2.85% |
16 |
|
+0.17% |
-2 |
|
Execute |
Total |
-1.0% |
20 |
4.9% |
18 |
-5.9% |
-2 |
||
|
Execute |
OFF |
-9.6% |
22 |
|
-7.0% |
22 |
|
-2.6% |
0 |
|
Execute |
DEF |
-8.4% |
6 |
|
-11.8% |
4 |
|
-3.4% |
-2 |
|
Execute |
ST |
0.2% |
19 |
|
0.1% |
20 |
|
+0.1% |
+1 |
|
Execute |
1Q OFF |
-32.7% |
28 |
|
-32.3% |
29 |
|
-0.4% |
+1 |
|
Execute |
1Q DEF |
-10.5% |
10 |
|
-11.7% |
8 |
|
-1.2% |
-2 |
|
Dominate the Trenches |
OL ALY |
3.47 |
31 |
|
3.42 |
31 |
|
+0.05 |
0 |
|
Dominate the Trenches |
OL ASR |
8.1% |
25 |
|
8.1% |
25 |
|
0.0% |
0 |
|
Dominate the Trenches |
DF7 ALY |
3.83 |
10 |
|
3.73 |
8 |
|
-0.10 |
-2 |
|
Dominate the Trenches |
DF7 ASR |
7.2% |
7 |
|
7.6% |
5 |
|
-0.4% |
-2 |
|
Create Great Field Position |
FG/XP Pts |
1.2 |
16 |
|
1.1 |
15 |
|
+0.1 |
-1 |
|
Create Great Field Position |
KO Pts |
3.1 |
16 |
|
4.1 |
13 |
|
-1.0 |
-3 |
|
Create Great Field Position |
KR Pts |
-1.9 |
17 |
|
-3.0 |
16 |
|
+1.1 |
-1 |
|
Create Great Field Position |
P Pts |
14.7 |
2 |
|
13.7 |
2 |
|
+1.0 |
0 |
|
Create Great Field Position |
PR Pts |
-16.1 |
32 |
|
-15.5 |
32 |
|
-0.6 |
0 |
|
Create Great Field Position |
Own 1-20 OFF |
-33.5% |
31 |
|
-31.5% |
30 |
|
-2.0% |
-1 |
|
Create Great Field Position |
Opp 1-20 DEF |
16.9% |
25 |
|
8.1% |
19 |
|
-8.8% |
-6 |
|
Finish |
4Q OFF |
5.9% |
13 |
|
9.5% |
13 |
|
-3.6% |
0 |
|
Finish |
4Q DEF |
6.0% |
16 |
|
-1.0% |
14 |
|
-7.0% |
-2 |
|
Finish |
Late/Close OFF |
-19.7% |
28 |
|
-21.5% |
27 |
|
+1.8% |
-1 |
|
Finish |
Late/Close DEF |
-5.3% |
13 |
|
-11.9% |
7 |
|
-6.6% |
-6 |
I'll keep my promise of short commentary. There's only one observation I'll make: Check out how, contrary to what you might have thought watching the Eagles game, it was the Niners' DEF - not it's OFF -- that laid an absolute statistical egg. Sure Alex Smith threw some INTs, but they were against the 4th-best IR DEF in the league, and 2 of the 3 were more about brilliant PHI coaching than him making a bad throw. Not to mention that the Niners actually ran the ball pretty effectively.
On the other hand, changes to the 49ers' defensive rankings in the above table were the result of across-the-board epic fails against PHI. They didn't execute overall or in the 1st quarter, they got dominated in the trenches, they bailed PHI out of horrible field position, and they sure as hell didn't finish. All in all, that's just what I wanted to see after their 7-turnover performance against the Cardinals, and given that their season was on the line. Yes, definitely what I wanted to see.
BOTTOM LINE
Based on Mike Singletary's Formula for Success:
8-8
*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.
9 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
important
if we can and we really should light up the scoreboard then it silences the critics of smith and gives him a boost of confidence as well as the team. we haven’t finished .500 in 7 years i think
I don't see it as that important
As long as they play hard and play efficient. in that case they should be wins. Now that I think about it, it is only important because we need to beat the teams we are suppose to.
True knowledge is knowing you know, nothing!!
"I seen the ball was behind me and I can't go out like that"- MCraptree #15
Niners trade up in 2010 draft!! (pleeeeease)
well maybe we should win out our last two games for the sake of winning, right. You know, that thing the realy good teams do often. Give me a break, if u thik alex smith having great games against the rams and lions is gonna make alex smith a “good” quarterback all of a sudden, ur dreaming, the thing about silencing the critics is that you do it in big games, under dire situations, and when it realy matters. But against the RAMS AND LIONS? Child please!! As far as winning for next seasons sake, dont stress on it, the titans were a 12 plus win team last season, and how did that go for them. Steelers won the freaking superbowl and look at them scraping for a playoff spot. The sooner we get a real QB in there , the better off we are, I will hope alex smith can win in the next couple weeks and into the future, but to tell ya the truth, i wont hold my breath, nor will I have any sympathy for him when he gets his walking papers if or when he stinks it up next year
pointless
I don’t care if we finish 8-8 its still not good enough for me. We lost the division and were out of the playoffs. Its a losing season
by zogamer7 on Dec 26, 2009 7:05 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Hopefully Alex Smith will play well enough to pick at QB in draft 2011.
Then the team can focus on other needs in draft 2010 and hopefully develop a team that is sufficiently good in 2011 to pick a quality QB for a decade of playoff runs. The Smith supporters will help maintain momentum regardless of the win-loss record next year, and the plan to get a legitimate QB WITH a reliable front line with will give hope for the rest of us.
vertigo??
what if alex smith plays extremely well next year, would you change your mind about getting a qb in 2011? or do u just think hes not the answer?
I don't think it matters THAT much...
They’re out of the playoffs, I don’t see 8-8 as much of a consolation prize…then again, we shouldn’t lose these games.
I’m just saying, we have TWO first round draft picks that we could use to fill our needs this upcoming draft, so we can very well be better next year.
And I’d definitely be willing to give Smith another chance (I voted for him to win the starting job after the preseason in an early poll). He’s played well, I just don’t see QB as a need right now.
I voted 'important'...
partly because it builds confidence in the team and because we’re expected to beat the Lions and Lambs. And if you think about it, on the chance that we do go 5 – 1 in our division, wouldn’t that make us the front-runner to win the division next year? Kurt Warner’s days are numbered & if he doesn’t win another Super Bowl this season, I think he retires…which would essentially pave the road for us to reclaim the NFC West crown.
As for Alex, it’s officially his job to lose going forward. He no longer has to live up to the hype of being worth the price tag we paid when we drafted him back in 2005. 2nd, he’s finally healthy which I’m sure makes a difference in his play-making skills. 3rd, he’s playing behind an improved o-line whereas before, he was practically running for his life. 4th, I don’t think it’s helped him that we’ve had a merry-go-round of offensive coordinators. I wanna see what Alex can do with an OC who ‘can’ last for more than a year.
We had confidence last year
But the changes needed time to gel. Sonce we have the time to gel this season and next season should be better all across the board. Brooks for a whole season. Smith for a whole season and even Crabtree for a whole season.
True knowledge is knowing you know nothing!
Trade up for Berry Scot it's the move to make. "Who is Berry?"..............Here we go again!!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Niners Nation
Related FanShots on Niners Nation
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
