49ers-Rams: 49ers open as 7 point favorites

by David Fucillo on Dec 29, 2009 10:00 AM PST in Preview

As the NFL season winds to a close, we get one last week of regular season gambling action (worthy of a special post tomorrow morning). The 49ers travel to the woeful St. Louis Rams looking to wrap up an 8-8 season and avoid the dreaded losing mark for the first time since 2002. The line opened over at Scores and Odds with the 49ers set as 7 point favorites, with an over/under of 40.5. They list Steven Jackson as "upgraded to probable," so we'll see how the injury situation plays out this week (Jackson was inactive Sunday against the Cardinals).

In the meantime, here are some gambling stats and trends heading into this week, courtesy of Capper's Picks and Bodog.com stats (ATS - against the spread; SU - straight up):

San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing St. Louis
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games at home
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games

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San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against St. Louis

That seems to stand out with me. Hopefully the Niners won’t follow that trend on Sunday.

by Mangoman on Dec 29, 2009 11:46 AM PST reply actions

A Boy Named Suh..

I think the Rams are better off losing this one for the sake of the future.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Dec 29, 2009 11:48 AM PST up reply actions

Yup

If the Rams win and the Lions lose on Sunday, the Rams lose the first pick. With only 22 sacks this season, they do NOT want to lose Suh.

by Mangoman on Dec 29, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions

Maybe

SOS is the first tie-breaker and that’s not yet settled. If that is euqal then Detroit having lost to STL will make them the #1

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Dec 29, 2009 2:07 PM PST up reply actions

I’ve never found much value in stats like those. The teams playing Sunday have nothing to do with the teams that played ten years ago. Another way to look at it is that San Francisco has gone 3-1 when playing on the road against St. Louis in the last four years. I still think it’s better to only compare this year’s 49ers to this year’s Rams because those are the teams that will be on the field.

by Chimneyfish on Dec 29, 2009 1:09 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah

I get influenced by omens. I shouldn’t let that happen!

by Mangoman on Dec 29, 2009 1:12 PM PST up reply actions

Seven points is about seven points too low for this spread. Expect the line to move up soon; 98% of the dollars bet on this spread have gone on the 49ers. The only lines this weekend that are more imbalanced are the Falcons to beat the Bucs by two, the Chargers to beat the Skins by four, and the Titans to beat the Seahawks by four and half (in terms of which way the money has gone).

by Chimneyfish on Dec 29, 2009 12:57 PM PST reply actions