49ers: Not quite road warriors

by David Fucillo on Dec 3, 2009 1:36 PM PST in San Francisco 49ers News

One reason I'm a little concerned about this Sunday's game is the fact that it's a road game. The 49ers are 1-4 on the road, with their only road win coming over Arizona the first week of the season in a performance that surprised a few folks. Throw in the fact that the game is a division rivalry and in an always loud Qwest Field, and it certainly will keep me on edge for most of the game.

I took a quick look at the 49ers home and road DVOA numbers (courtesy of Football Outsiders' premium content) and came across a few interesting pieces of information. Here's a breakdown of their offensive and defensive DVOAs at home and on the road.

Offense

Total DVOA	Rk	Home DVOA	Rk	Road DVOA	Rk
-10.0%	21	-16.0%	29	-2.4%	17

Defense

Total DVOA	Rk	Home DVOA	Rk	Road DVOA	Rk
-7.6%	7	-12.7%	2	-3.0%	13

I'm a bit surprised by the road offensive numbers. The team has faced a relatively higher level of competition on the road than at home (not too denigrate some of the home opponents). These stats are certainly not all inclusive (for instance, not showing the development of the numbers over the course of the season), but I still find the offensive performances interesting.

After the jump, a quick look at the 49ers' road schedule to date...

The 49ers road games have been a rather bizarre amalgamation of games. The 49ers of course beat the Cardinals 20-16 in the season opener, a game which many folks have quickly written off as a random occurrence that can best be described as an early season anomaly. We'll see next week if that's the case. But the rest of their road games, all losses, were all rather tough games to stomach:

Week 2: 27-24 loss at Minnesota
Week 7: 24-21 loss at Houston
Week 8: 18-14 loss at Indianapolis
Week 11: 30-24 loss at Green Bay

Some will argue about the Houston and Green Bay games involved the team being down big, but in both games they made things interesting, so they certainly weren't blowouts. And considering they battled Minnesota and Indy legitimately to the wire, I can overlook the early lapses in Houston and GB. Anyways, if you throw in a 4 point win at Arizona, we could be looking at another nail-biter. Seattle hasn't been playing at the level of the 49ers previous road opponents, but divisional road games are always tough.

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Makes sense to me

At home we’ve played Seattle, St. Louis, TN, Chicago, and Jacksonville.

The combined record of our home opponents is 22-33.

The combined record of our away opponents is 40-15.

No wonder our road DVOA is so much better. We’ve played close games against good teams on the road.

by smileyman on Dec 3, 2009 2:07 PM PST reply actions

Agreed

The better road DVOA likely has to do with having kept it close against good opponents.

I’m not all that worried about this Sunday. One would think that the only reason why the Niners wouldn’t win it is because of a letdown and they end up beating themselves. A lot of times it’s the teams that are bad on paper that end up hurting you, i.e. the Pittsburgh-K.C. game from a couple weeks ago. But I feel like in the wins previous to Jax, we won but we didn’t really have a good understanding as to why we won. We seem to know better now and at least have a good idea what we should do to keep winning.

by Mangoman1 on Dec 3, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions

Random occurence that we beat the Cardinals?

Didn’t we come up just one yard short from beating them on monday night last year in AZ? SF-ARI games usually always come down to the wire.

by mountaindew77 on Dec 3, 2009 2:15 PM PST reply actions

Some people were looking for excuses

Especially after assuming AZ would walk all over SF. Much easier to explain it away than look at the recent history between the two teams.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Dec 3, 2009 3:31 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah

AZ gets one lucky playoff run and now they’re supposed to destroy us.

by mountaindew77 on Dec 3, 2009 3:33 PM PST up reply actions

I feel like the Niners have play AZ in week 1 for the past 5 straight seasons.

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by Useful_Idiot on Dec 3, 2009 4:49 PM PST up reply actions

Silver lining?

They have played some tough road games so far against tough teams and they were all decided in late 4th quarter but unfortunately most were not in the 49ers’ favor. There’s gotta be a silver lining somewhere as post-2002, the 49ers usually don’t play well against good teams on the road especially in the eastern time zone.

Hopefully, they are battle-tested enough to jump all over the Seahawks in the first half or come roaring back if they trail big by half time.

Win the inning.

by Scooter Ellis on Dec 3, 2009 2:31 PM PST reply actions

That eastern time zone thing...

has been pretty prevalent for all Western time zone teams. Every road game loss this year has been when the Niners are playing at 1pm eastern time (10 am western). The NFL must have really wanted the Niners to fail this year with all of these tough road games at 10 am (and they have Philly coming up on a short week at 1pm eastern).

by sanfranfanmdk on Dec 3, 2009 2:44 PM PST up reply actions

What bothers me..

Is that AZ got to play at St. Louis and at Tennessee at 4:00 Eastern, plus their game at NY was a night game (though deserved after winning the conference last season). The Niners, due to sharing the market with Oakland, still has to play at STL at 10:00 Pacific and had both AFC road games in the early slot. It certainly creates a slight advantage for the Cards.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Dec 3, 2009 3:35 PM PST up reply actions

nice

really good point

by goatfather on Dec 3, 2009 7:06 PM PST up reply actions

It will be interesting to see if the NFL does look at this

I know there was talk they were going to look at the way teams in the West play when they have to start at 10 Pacific this season and look at reducing how often it happens.

I’m not sure how teams in the West have done other than the Niners this year but it would be nice if they do this. I actually think it was the Cardinals who got NFL to look at it based on complaining about their losses last year but I could be remembering wrong.

by snowweasel30 on Dec 3, 2009 6:19 PM PST up reply actions

Defense will be important.

and as someone said: " the visiting defense controls the crowd noise".

by zacksf on Dec 3, 2009 2:33 PM PST reply actions

We will win at Seattle!

i see pat returning an interception for a touchdown… (rewind) i see it again, and again and again…. seriously, i think we got this, the players know how much is on the line and they will put the kind of effort they did when the season started vs. AZ… i think we already know how to defend them and they ar enot prepared to defend out new look (gun O)

"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are"

by Bo$$Ixta! on Dec 3, 2009 3:26 PM PST reply actions

If it makes anyone feel better

Even the flawed Niners have won 2 of the previous 3 years in Seattle so it’s not like they’re intimidated or uncomfortable there. The one loss was the MNF game where an injured Smith had no business playing.

When the season began I saw this as a game the Niners would either win or lose on a late FG or in overtime, especially with the weather being a big unknown and the Niners possibly looking ahead to the Monday night game. It may still be that close but if they play well (not great, just well) it should at least be a competitive but 8-10 point victory.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Dec 3, 2009 3:39 PM PST reply actions