Who should Fooch parlay this weekend?

by David Fucillo on Dec 30, 2009 9:30 AM PST in San Francisco 49ers News

I'm down in Las Vegas for a week (visiting brother, ringing in the New Year, etc...), which means I get to roll out some parlay bets for the coming weekend. I don't do online gambling, but when I'm in Las Vegas during football season, I'm a fan of throwing down the parlays. I rarely win, but it makes many of the games a bit more interesting. The NFL is playing all 16 games on Sunday, meaning I get a nice assortment of options to choose from.

Of course, week 17 is also a bit of a bizarre week for many teams that will be rolling over in some form or fashion. The Colts will likely be resting players against the Bills, so I'm thinking I don't want to touch that game. Thanks to the Vikings blowing it on Monday Night, the Saints have clinched home field, meaning they'll likely rest starters against the Panthers. That hurts our chances of a Panthers loss, and also takes them off the board for gambling purposes in my mind.

Given their loss, the Vikings were unable to lock up a first round bye, so they'll need a win when they face the Giants this Sunday at the Metrodome. The Giants are out of the playoffs and playing for pride, which should be interesting given their embarrassing home blowout at the hands of the Panthers. The Patriot and Bengals have clinched their divisions and cannot get a first round bye, so they might plan on resting some of their starters.

So the question becomes, who can I parlay? Based on the early lines (and with several games off the board at Scores and Odds), if I were to go with a straight 4-team parlay, I might go with something along the lines of:

49ers (-7 at Rams)
Under in 49ers/Rams (40.5)
Titans (-4.5 at Seahawks)
Jets (-10 versus Bengals at Meadowlands)

Some other options include the Patriots/Texans over (-46, although NE might be sitting players), Cowboys and the over against the Eagles (-3, 47.5). It's a tough week for picks given several teams resting players, but I suppose that makes it more fun (or just worse when I lose money). We'll just have to see what's on the board when I get down to Las Vegas, but if anybody has any suggestions in the meantime, I'm all ears.

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Comments

Playoff games

I would not bet on any game where a team might rest it players because they have already made the playoffs such as the Bengals/Jets or N.E/Houston (Never know what Belichick will do with his starters).

Instead I would focus on games where teams still have a playoff chance and they need to win and they are playing opponents that are only playing because the season is not over yet! For example: Baltimore, Denver, and Pittsburgh.

In addition if you have a favorite for the Dallas/Philly game I would possibly bet that one too. That game has a lot of playoff implications in it! The Division title is up for grabs and a possible 1st round bye if the Vikings and Cards lose. I like the Cowboys in that game, well just being faithful to my son, he is a Cowboys fan, and I did get him to cheer for the 49ers this year, so in a few more years I am sure I can get him to totally convert.

Of course I would also bet on the Niners to beat the Rams.

11-5... So I was overly Optimistic! Maybe Next year!

by Ten-Man on Dec 30, 2009 10:20 AM PST reply actions

I live in Reno...

…and planned on betting a 7-teamer a few weeks ago, but didn’t get the card in in time…well, turns out I would have hit the damn thing (even though living in Reno, I rarely hit any parlay cards) and with the amount of money I would have put down, missed out on a few thousand duckets…anyway, good luck with the betting! I like the games you mentioned you were betting on. Cowboys and Eagles scare me though. Could go either way on that one!

by Brave Neander on Dec 30, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions

My first advice would be to not parlay anything, especially not four teams. The actual odds of hitting a four-bet parlay are 15/1, and I’m assuming your casino only pays out the standard 12/1. That puts the house edge over 18%. I don’t know of any other form of gambling in Vegas with worse odds. I’d rather take that money and spend it all on drinks and then gamble on what I’d wake up next to in the morning. If you hit every game you’d be rich, but wouldn’t you rather maximize your probability of seeing a profit?

Here are four spreads I like this weekend (there were six games for which the lines were not yet posted):

1. San Diego -4
2. San Francisco -7
3. Baltimore -10.5
4. Green Bay +3

My top four may change once I see those other six lines. I really like the Chargers to cover though.

by Chimneyfish on Dec 30, 2009 11:21 AM PST reply actions

chargers

Agree with you on the problem with parlay odds. Might still roll one for $10 just to keep it interesting.

Any concern about the chargers resting players? Or you think the redskins are that bad? Also, aren’t packers locked into wildcard and maybe resting players?

by David Fucillo on Dec 30, 2009 12:57 PM PST up reply actions

Of course,

I would worry about the Chargers resting some players, and Washington’s Defense has shown up for a few games this year. As for the Cardinals Vs. Packers game, It is one of those tough calls. Does GB rest Players seeing they are in, Does Arizona Play hard to try to get a better seed? Heck, If Dallas Wins and Minnesota loses then and Arizona wins, The Cards would end up in the 2nd Seed and a buy week. That would Put GB Vs. Dallas in the 1st round of the Playoffs. So many scenarios, it’s just hard to imagine what anyone team already in the Playoffs will do. Of course If Green Bay beats the Cardinals; it sets up for a re-match the next week. I guess Fooch, there are just too many what if for this game for me to be comfortable placing a bet on.

11-5... So I was overly Optimistic! Maybe Next year!

by Ten-Man on Dec 31, 2009 12:26 PM PST up reply actions

I would say throw some $ down on the Jets

Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?

by Drew Kerr on Dec 30, 2009 11:22 AM PST reply actions

Remember to save some cash for the Spearmint Rhino.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Dec 30, 2009 11:25 AM PST reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd

49er faithful since July 11, 1985

by J2daZ on Dec 30, 2009 12:38 PM PST up reply actions

If you’re ever going to bet on your teams game bet on them to lose SU. If they happen to win then the blow is not quite as bad, and if they lose then the blow of them losing doesn’t hurt as much since you made some money on the deal.

by iairj84 on Dec 30, 2009 1:54 PM PST reply actions