Colts Were Correct Despite the Criticism
by Josh Branco on Dec 31, 2009 12:00 PM PST
in National Preview/Review
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PrintImagine this, San Francisco opens up the 2010 regular season with 14 straight wins and you decide to buy tickets for the Week 16 game at Candlestick Park. The 49ers are halfway to their 15th win with a slim lead midway through the third when they pull their starters just six quarters away from a 16-0 record. 19 unanswered points later the dream of a perfect season is dead. How would you feel?
For Colts fans this dream is the reality of their 2009 season. As Peyton Manning watched from the sidelines many of the patrons at Lucas Oil Stadium showered his replacement, rookie Curtis Painter, with booes. Afterwards Reggie Wayne joked that Indianapolis may be the first 14-1 team to be booed at home, but for many Colts loyalists their anger over the decision to throw away a chance at an undefeated season is no laughing matter.
But was the decision made by GM Bill Polian and Coach Jim Caldwell the right one? While I was initially dismayed by the sight of an inferior Jets team beating up on the Indianapolis backups, I have since come to grips with the logic behind the move to pull the starters.
The playoffs are a crapshoot in that a certain amount of luck is required to bring home a championship. Simply put, the Colts' brain trust felt they could increase their odds of winning a Super Bowl by giving their most important players some extra rest on Sunday. I've come up with three reasons why their decision to pull the plug on a perfect season was the correct call.
Find out what they are after the jump...
1. Momentum is overrated
A lot of analysts cite a teams' win loss record in the 3-4 games immediately leading up to the playoffs as an indicator of how that team will perform in the postseason, but I don't buy that argument. Obviously it's preferable to be playing your best football at the end of the season and to then head into the playoffs with a long winning streak, but you don't have to look very far to find an example of a team that backed into the playoffs and represented itself well (2008-2009 Arizona Cardinals).
Indianapolis' body of work over the entire season gives you a better idea about their true talent level than their win-loss record in December ever could. The Colts' success or failure in the playoffs will be determined by how they play on that given Sunday, not by their regular season record.
2. Being healthy is an advantage
The number one seed and home field advantage throughout the postseason is no guarantee of a Super Bowl appearance. Only one number one seed has won it all in this decade, the 2003 New England Patriots. So while their may not be much to gain from home field advantage, the Colts have decided to use their number one seed to ensure that they are as healthy as possible come playoff time. When every game has the fate of a season riding on it, you need to have your best guys on the field.
I don't see how resting Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne a couple quarters at the end of the regular season will all of a sudden throw off the chemistry they've developed over years. I don't think that Robert Mathis is going to forget how to rush the passer just because he's spending some extra time getting healthy. However, if the Colts were to lose one or more of their key guys to a freak injury that would undoubtedly put a damper on their Super Bowl chances.
3. Indianapolis has nothing left to prove in the regular season
Indianapolis has set numerous records for regular season success during this latest hot streak. They hold the record for most consecutive regular season victories (23). They also broke the San Francisco 49ers' record for most regular season wins in a decade with 115. The 49ers set that mark in the 1990's by the way, not the 1980's. So if San Francisco had more regular season success in the 1990's, why are they constantly referred to as the team of the 1980's? Because that's when they won the majority of their Super Bowls. The Dallas Cowboys are the team of the 1990's because guess what, they won the most championships in that decade.
The Colts are faced with a similar dilemna in this decade. They have been the most consistent team but they are still living in the shadow of the New England Patriots' 3-1 Super Bowl record. The only way for Indianapolis to strengthen its argument for the best team of the 2000's is to win a second Super Bowl. Granted it is unlikely that Bill Polian and Jim Caldwell were thinking along those lines when they decided to forego additional regular season success, but it does lend credence to their argument that the Colts have nothing to play for but a Super Bowl victory.
As fans we love to see the impossible. Many of us were not around to witness the 1972 Dolphins undefeated season, and we'd like nothing more than to see the feat repeated in our lifetimes. But when you take yourself out of the equation, it's clear that Indianapolis has made the right decision in this situation.
Please feel free to let your opinion on the Colts be heard in the comments below. A healthy debate is a great way to bring in the New Year.
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I will always disagree with this decision
You play to win every single time. You especially play to win when you’re at home and have a chance to make history.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
but...
When you put it like that, it just sounds like a shallow platitude. Why unnecessarily put your MVP candidate, heart of the team QB at risk of injury. The season is wrapped up. They’re in the playoffs, and they’re not losing the first seed.
The Colts goal to win the Superbowl isn’t just some dopey thing that Steve Spagnulo might say. “Oh, our goal is to win the Superbowl… someday. First we have to find some people who will play for our team.” The Colts are a top contender. The regular season literally DOES NOT matter to them right now. They can win it, for sure. Why risk a freak injury? “Because you always play to win” doesn’t really provide any logic to support it.
Why even play him at all then?
why don’t you pull your starters whenever you have a lead of more than 2 scores?
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
This is a really bad question.
Obviously, there is a good chance you can lose the game when you send in your second stringers. However, the Colts have been guaranteed everything they could have gotten (homefield throughout) from the regular season.
Also, “play to win” sounds like a really bad cliche. You play for a championship.
Play to win?
That’s a silly thing to say. Which player on the Colts wasn’t playing to win? Every player playing in the game was playing to win. Whether it was Manning or Painter or the 3rd string WR…
Moreover, play to win what? The Super Bowl or a meaningless regular season game? The goal of the team entering the season is to win the Super Bowl. The coaches wanted to keep the starters sharp, so they played them for 2.5 quarters. After that, it was up to the other players on the team to win the game. Do you think its wise for the coaches to give the NFL’s #1 defense free shots at its starters all game…in a meaningless game…when the Colts might play the Jets again in the playoffs?
Why don’t teams play their starters all four quarters of pre-season football games? They must be gutless right? I mean the coaches should want to win every single time. What’s that you say? Pre-season games are meaningless. Oh, well…so was this game…since the goal of this team is to win the Super Bowl.
by MangoMetsFan on Dec 31, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
um if we would have beaten them then there would be no chance of facing them in the playoffs cause they would have been eliminated
GO COLTS!!! 09 IS OURS!!!
by TheAngelsColts on Jan 1, 2010 5:36 PM PST up reply actions
and preseason and a meaningless regular season game are diff.
i mean in the preseason your eveluating your draft pics and other free agents picked up to form a roster your not doing that in a meaningless regular season game
GO COLTS!!! 09 IS OURS!!!
by TheAngelsColts on Jan 1, 2010 5:38 PM PST up reply actions
Am I the only one who doesn’t put much stock into a perfect season?
I like a lot of 15-1 or 14-2 teams better than ’72 Dophins or ’07 Patriots. If a team has nothing to play for late in the regular season, they have nothing to play for. Not finishing with a SB is a million times more tragic.
Yeah but in the Colts case
resting their starters doesn’t work for them. The one year they won the Super Bowl it was because they played their starters all the way through.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
They lost to Pittsburgh the season they were resting starters. They weren’t a typical wildcard team. The Steelers were a 15-1 team who ended up 10-6 because of injuries and became healthy just in time for the playoffs.
This Colts team isn’t that good anyways. I’d be shocked to see them in the SB, let alone win it. The only thing going for them is the AFC sorta sucks this year. SD and NE can beat them. BAL and PIT could have beat them but made a season of shooting themselves in the foot. DEN and CIN are just lucky to be there or whoever else manages to sneak in.
Looking at the NFC, every team outside the Cowboys I could see making the SB playing in either NFC or AFC bracket.
you must not watch any colts games or even look at the numbers if you think our team isn't that good lol. sorry but
that there is a very ignorant statement
GO COLTS!!! 09 IS OURS!!!
by TheAngelsColts on Jan 1, 2010 5:41 PM PST up reply actions
I’ve seen plenty of the Colts game to know there has been a huge amount of luck to their record. How many times this season has have the Colts played into the other team’s game plan only to pull out a victory? Dolphins, 49ers, Pats, Jaguars, Texans that right off the top of my head.
no ones game plans perfect obviously, yea for the most part Dolphins did everything they wanted but we won
just cause we won does not mean it is luck. beating you was luck in no way. againt the pats it wasn’t luck it was a questionable call and well executed by our D and offense to take advantage of it, Texans a fumble by a player nown to fumble (bad call mabye mabye not). i mean seriously if our team isnt that good yours is just sad as dirt. (dont think it is) but thats how silly your comment is to me. but think what you like
GO COLTS!!! 09 IS OURS!!!
by TheAngelsColts on Jan 1, 2010 7:34 PM PST up reply actions
do they still have the same underpants and jockstraps from that season
maybe that will help, too.
yea but we didn't lose because we rested players we lost
because of key injuries and a miss of an easy field goal. so mabye that goes more toward the rest being helpfull
GO COLTS!!! 09 IS OURS!!!
by TheAngelsColts on Jan 1, 2010 5:40 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe I would have taken Manning out sooner.
They had nothing to lose as far as playoffs go. They sealed Home-field. The only thing they lost was the nagging talk about “making history.”
Hm...
If I named five super bowls, off the top of my head could you tell me their winners? Probably not. If I asked you which teams have finished the regular season, you’d be more inclined to tell me the correct answer, right? Of course.
These Colts had a chance to write history and should have taken it. Not once have the Colts won themselves a title or even played reasonably well after resting even a single starter. The Colts won the Super Bowl in 2006, a year they played every single game because they wanted home field advantage.
It was NOT the right move to rest the starters, especially Peyton Manning—it wasn’t necessarily a hard-hitting game and he’s one of the most durable quarterbacks in the game. It was not the right move.
You can never resist the game... nor could I... we're the same, so don't even try.
Which teams..
Have finished the regular season undefeated, that is..
You can never resist the game... nor could I... we're the same, so don't even try.
by James Brady on Dec 31, 2009 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
Patriots, who are notorious for losing the SB
Dolphins, who no one ever remember from the 70’s, hence the forced toasts every season.
I’ve watched 2 decades of football without anyone caring about a perfect season, this has only bubbled up the last 5 years.
Sure they are
But they didn’t get blown out, they didn’t suffer from being tired or hurt. Going 16-0 didn’t hurt the Patriots that year.
You can never resist the game... nor could I... we're the same, so don't even try.
by James Brady on Dec 31, 2009 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
But a perfect record doesn’t make a legendary football team. It’s a not a true reflection of dominance, NFL historians don’t put record at the top of their criteria.
I think a perfect regular season does make a legendary team.
As long as that perfect regular season record is peppered in there with dominance.
I think a perfect record, minus a Superbowl is like a queen high straight flush. The team will be remembered, for sure. Superbowl is a king high, and… well, you get it.
I mean, I think the Bills of the early 90s deserve a ton of respect for making it to the Bowl 4 years in a row. That’s awesome consistency.
Going 16-0 did hurt the Patriots.
They played their starters in game 16 against the Giants and squeaked out a win. When they met the Giants again in the Super Bowl…(a) the Giants coaches were able to game plan better for the Pats, and (b) the Giants players believed they could beat the Pats and didn’t buy into the hype. Going 16-0 cost the Pats the Super Bowl that year (along with a great play from Manning to Tyree).
by MangoMetsFan on Dec 31, 2009 2:59 PM PST up reply actions
2 decades?
…so you’re too young to remember the 85 Bears then.
Because they were certainly getting discussed as a team who could be perfect.
I remember
Even after losing 1 game most people still feel the Bears team is a level better than the Dolphins.
Have you ever heard the expression, “Do you think you are playing the ’72 Dolphins?”. No, cause that Dolphin team has never been the measure of greatness.
Except you didn't say that.
You said, and I quote:
“I’ve watched 2 decades of football without anyone caring about a perfect season, this has only bubbled up the last 5 years.”
You are either admitting one of two things. That your perspective doesn’t include the 85 Bears, or that you weren’t paying attention. Because the ‘85 Bears certainly got a lot of talk as a team who could go undefeated. There’s a reason the 11-0 Bears at the Orange Bowl vs. Miami is the highest rated MNF telecast ever.
2 decades...
Would take you back to 1989, 4 years after the ’85 Bears, so what he was saying was technically correct.
by peytonsurdaddy on Jan 1, 2010 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
I have a feeling if Herman Edwards was Indy's coach
This conversation wouldn’t have come up!
I’m weird, I actually like what Polian/Caldwell did, but only because I think it’s cool to know that a team led by a rookie QB controls its destiny and will end up in the playoffs with a win this Sunday.
I don't know...
if I believe in any correlation between playing out and winning. I feel like it’s media driven. If they win, it’ll be because they rested their starters- if they lose, it’ll be because they rested their starters. Playoff wins and losses come down to a lot more than momentum and regular season W/L records IMO.
I fully agree w/ Caldwell. I think you have a game plan with some scripted drives for your starters so you have some analysis for the following game study. And, with the script, Manning will know if the play is broken and can throw the ball away accordingly.
Agreed
A pretty good read on the subject of flimsy media-driven narratives “explaining” post-season success and failure:
http://footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2009/week-16-quick-reads
The only problem I have with the resting the starters thing
is that a lot of people paid a lot of money to see that game, well before they knew that the Colts would have wrapped up their playoff appearance by this stage.
Now, if they were going to not charge more for the playoffs, or give these fans first refusal, well, maybe I’d think a bit differently about it
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
A lot of people..
pay a lot of money to see teams that aren’t going to the playoffs as well.
Well, we're waiting....
Right, but the people going to see
the shitty teams non playoff teams at least know that their team is going to treat the game as if the result matters, no?
I’m not say I disagree with the Colts doing it. I’m just saying, it’s not a cut and dried thing. It’d be good if they had some way of rewarding fans for their loyalty for turning out for a game that they’re basically saying ‘well, we’re going to try, obviously, but we’re not really that bothered about what the end score is one way or the other’.
See also, charging full price for pre season games
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
A lot of teams that have their playoff...
situation sewn, whether a bye, or even knowing that they have a first round spot sit their starters out in the latter 2 weeks of the season. The ultimate results during the regular season is to make the playoffs. Once that is reached, then we all know the next objective. Had Caldwell had his backup start the second half, there would be no controversy.
Fans of IND should expect this late in the season. Fans aren’t owed a perfect record at the expense of a possible crucial injury. I’d take 7 consecutive seasons of 12+ wins over one 16-0. That should be rewarding enough.
Well, we're waiting....
I think this decision is going to cost them the playoffs. You could see it on the whole teams disgust on their faces when they started losing.
I believe this took a lot away from their moment-em. They will come out in the play offs totally flat.
This sounds more like platitude than actual analysis.
This is the NFL. And these are the freakin Indianapolis Colts!! Do you think their mental states are so fragile that one meaningless loss will destroy them mentally? These are not children; they are professionals who have won a Super Bowl before.
Please. If the Colts do lose in the playoffs, it will be because of their bad play in THAT game, not some lingering effects of “falling flat” against the Jets.
i disagree if you go read there comments i think they have moved on and are less effected than you think. they were disappointed c
cause you dont like to lose and never want to but they were not focused on the perfect season.
GO COLTS!!! 09 IS OURS!!!
by TheAngelsColts on Jan 1, 2010 5:52 PM PST up reply actions
I disagree with the move
but at the same time, I’m not gonna say they were wrong. If you run a team and you don’t feel a need to chase after the benchmark of all benchmarks, then that’s your call. I don’t see a need to be forced into chasing after something you don’t care about.
I loathe the 72 Dolphins with a passion and how they are heralded as the greatest team of all time. Nobody proclaims them as such, but they are treated that way. Say what you want about any other great team, they’re not the ones popping champagne every year. They’re not the benchmark in which questions arise on “can they?” every week of every season. No team (nor player) has been given this much praise and adoration. It’s Brett Favre love-fest times 1,000 nonstop for 37 years. It’s sickens me. I want it stopped.
So, yeah, seeing what Caldwell did rub me the wrong way, but my anger towards them is not on the level as many others’ are, though I am extremely happy that anger is there. Lets me know I’m not the only one who wants people to shut up about the 72 Dolphins. Restores my faith some in humanity after the overwhelming disgraceful demand for parity in ’07.
I wholeheartedly disapproved of this move...
I was really really mad that the Colts intentionally threw away their chance at a perfect season last week. I mean, I ranted and raved and everything. It bothered me to no end. And it made no sense, as I’m not a Colts fan. Actually, I’m a fan of their rivals in the AFC (I’m a Niners fan first, but a Jags fan in the AFC). But chances at history only come along every so often. When you have a chance, a real chance, to do something no one else has ever done before…you have to go for it, right? I mean, intentionally losing a game when you have a chance to create history is like thumbing your nose at the game and the history of the sport you play. You are essentially saying "I don’t care about doing something to further interest in the NFL and don’t care enough about the fans, the sport, and ourselves to give it that shot."
And that is the kind of thing that drives me nuts. They seemed content to be "good enough" and had no desire to achieve greatness. That’s apathy at its worst. I’m pretty sure the Colts aren’t making it to the Super Bowl this year now.
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
Here is what ruins it for me...
They don’t care about going for the undefeated season because the goal is simply to win the Super Bowl. If that’s the case, Peyton shouldn’t even wear pads next week. But, of course, he’ll start and ensure his consecutive games streak continues. So, one streak matters but the other doesn’t…just play the games, especially the home games.
Never use a big word where a diminutive alternative would suffice.
yeah, the 'especiallly the home games' is important, I think
treat your home fans with some respect, I say
I suspect that you think tilting at windmills means something other than what it does.
I look at it this way: later on down the road when Peyton Manning retires and everyone else on this Colts’ squad retires, the extra Superbowl ring from this season will be great (if they win it), and for a player that only gets this one superbowl win it will be the centerpiece of his career.
But when Peyton Manning is done and reflecting back on his career, he’s going to regret not shooting for the perfect season. Another superbowl ring, great, he already has others. He had a chance to do something once-in-a-lifetime and they took that opportunity away. Yeah right now in the moment what they want is the superbowl. It’s the primary short term goal. But later on it is something they will regret. You just don’t get many chances at a perfect season.
"We Deserve"
"One team wins the superbowl every year, but only a few can try for history"
This was said in some video I saw in NFL videos,and i totally agree with it.
I think it would be fine if the Colts had taken out less starters. Then, at least the third stringer will have adequate line and weapons to work with.
The Pats in 08 didn’t worry about this stuff, and they did fine. This decision is going to hurt a lot more when they lose in the playoffs.
AH! don't fumble!!
I agree that momentum is overrated. However, Caldwell’s reasoning all lays under the assumption that an extra two quarters of rest is going to cause the Colts to play better in the playoffs. Obviously his main concern was that Manning would be injured. The actual probability of a quarterback being seriously injured during one half of football is slim, but when you consider the quarterback in question the chances are miniscule. When is the last time you heard about Peyton Manning being injured? Exactly. He’s started every single game since he first stepped foot on an NFL field- all 191 consecutive starts. Granted, the Jets have a tough D-line, but Manning went into the game having been sacked less than any other QB in the league this year.
Caldwell committed the all-too-frequent rookie head coach mistake of being way too conservative in trying to protect his job at the expense of his team’s success. There’s no reason to think that the Colts couldn’t have kept all their starters in and not done any worse in the playoffs because of it. Realistically, the probability of Manning being on a football field for two extra quarters (out of the over 700 quarters he’s played in the NFL) wouldn’t have made a dent in the Colt’s probability of winning the Super Bowl. Caldwell could have had his perfect season cake and ate it too.
Addressing the injury question
I really dislike your reasoning that because Peyton Manning hasn’t been injured before, he is immune to getting injured in the future.
Obviously, he’s been getting good protecting from his O-Line, but all it takes is one freak play or one mis-step from a lineman to injure him.
just look at the sack that Painter endured
and the argument is right there
How can you not love a team that does this?
Rookie coach mistake of being to conservative and protecting his job?
There is story about Mike Shanahan and Eddie D. When Shanahan was OC of the 49ers he lobbied to keep the starters in the game the last two weeks of the season because the offense was close to smashing several NFL records, despite having their playoff seed locked up.
Eddie D. decided to address this himself and politely informed Shanahan that if Young, Rice, etc were to get hurt, the hurt superstars weren’t the only ones who were going to miss the playoffs.
Classic error in judgement
The Colts mgt displayed a classic error in managing the emotional expectations of its team, customers – and especially the greater Indianapoils community. Polian, Irsay, Caldwell have been successful in the basic tenants of the fundamentals of the above…and for the most part this has bode them well…thus far….but this recent debacle causing such vehement emotions reveal that sound football logic and a basic understanding of human nature (the innate desire to win and the emotions attached) alone is not enough to manage this level of emotional expectations . They errored in what so many organizations have errored in - assuming logic (even assuming rest is more logical than rust) with some empathy is stronger than deep rooted passion. -
They should have seen the perfect season “emotional train” was gathering more steam (passion) than a superbowl champion victory…as with every week’s win it’s resulting “feel great endorphins” were elevated —versus a yet to come -February superbowl . …as those endorphins really begins with the first play-off victory
So two “trains” with the perfect season train having a clear head start - capturing the minds, hearts and passions of the community – (and keep in mid the depressed economic times as a backdrop) far greater then the mgt realized- poor judgement to ignore the depth of the passionate emotional side – they should have addressed it – by magnifying the emotional side of what winning the superbowl would mean -and keep beatiing that drum…that is why using an emotional word of saying it was" courageous" to take the starters out is far less impactful than saying they are “sorry” they did not keep them in at least through the 3rd Q—“courageous” and “sorry” are both emotional words—but again, even in choosing the former, they blew it. When your team and community is booted off the “perfect season” train - without saying you are sorry, the invitation to get back on the orginal “superbowl” train in choosing “courageous” is arrogant at best.-BE REAL….admit your error in misjuding how much the potential perfect season had captured the imaginations and hearts of the team, the community….once you do that, you are back on track with the hearts of those you should be concerned about
The lesson is to always guage the emotional side of your customers…and to address it
Not defending (I get equally emotional in defending both sides of the argument)
but as an explanation, the primary reason for the decision goes back to a game at the end of 1999. The Colts had already clinched the AFC East, but through a combination of a win over Buffalo and a Jacksonville loss to Cincinatti, they could get the #1 seed and HFA. The games were competitive and the Colts left starters in. Cornelius Bennett, the star linebacker and linchpin of the Colts D, went down from a chop block and was unavailable for the playoffs. They lost the Divisional Playoff game and watched the SB from home.
I know injuries happen in every game and there are some arguing, “why not leave all the players at home in bubble wrap?!” but the Colts management believe they have to find the proper balance between staying sharp and avoiding injury.
Also, to those who mention the Colts’ history of one-and-done after “resting starters,” you should be aware (ANGELSFAITH commented about this, too), that the key problems in those years were also injuries. Freeney out one year, Mathis hobbled another, etc. Last year I personally thought it was a miracle that the Colts even got to the playoffs and was not surprised that they lost – a close one – to the Chargers.
How can you not love a team that does this?
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