Golden Nuggets: Beast mode, anyone?
by James Brady on Feb 11, 2009 1:45 AM PST
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Good morning. So today I've actually got a question, I've been wondering for awhile. I came to NinersNation right around the beginning of the preseason. I mean, I came before then for news when I was starved for it but I didn't participate at all until the beginning of preseason. Now my question is, back around this time last year (draft time) were people saying we needed Patrick Willis? Was he a name on here at all? What were the prevailing thoughts? There seems to be a lot of options and opinions this year, did anyone predict Willis being such a beast? And the last question is: if he wasn't, who was NN's clear-cut "we need this guy" pick? Sorry for using the Nuggets to do this but I couldn't think of much to say today and its nice to make it look bulky. Sue me. Here's your links! (you know I love ya)
So as you likely already know we've released Tully Banta-Cain and Keith Lewis. (SFGate.com)
Could Jennings be next? To be honest, I really hope so, he hasn't really produced and he's always hurt. I figure we could find somebody who does more than him in high school. They could at least do a play or two before cracking. (PressDemocrat.com)
So we've got opinions saying that the Niners should definitely consider Sanchez if he's available at the 10th pick. You wont see me comment on a lot of these potential picks, as honestly I didn't pay too much attention to college football this year. Which saddens me, to be honest. (PressDemocrat.com)
Samuel Lam takes a look at some offensive tackles that we could potentially have coming our way with our first pick in the draft. (MVN.com)
Here's a look at why Banta-Cain and Lewis were cut. (Scout.com)
Rachal is ready for beast mode. This is good. I'd like a lot of production from him next season. (49ers.com)
That's all I've got for you right now, enjoy, discuss, etc. You all know the drill. (And if you don't, welcome!)
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Willis
Well, I don’t recall if I was reading NN when Willis was considered two years ago.
However, all the mock drafts I came across said it was either Willis or Adam Carriker. The 49ers had to decide on whether to try to fill a hole with Carriker or take a raw talent like Willis.
I’m glad they made the decision to take Willis.
Formerly known as phutmasterflex
oh and we knew he was a beast…
BUT NOT THIS BEASTLY!!!
Checme out at Mining the Gold Rush and San Francisco 49ers Examiner
At this time 2 years ago WIllis wasn’t on a lot of people’s radar at #11. He was just starting to sneak into the conversation. It was the Senior Bowl where people really started to look at him and say, you know what this guy is a baller. I guess you could compare him to BJ Raji’s stock this year. He was a great college player, but nobody knew what to think…he didn’t have a big name. Then he was a beast at the Senior Bowl and he got some credit. Then he threw down a 4.49 or wheatever at the combine and that was the tangible evidence needed to secure first round lock status. But it was his pro day performance, I think he ran a 4.37, that really cemented his stock as a top 15 guy. I mean, you could see his sideline to sideline range on film, but he didn’t have the name of a Maualuga or Lauranitis coming into the whole “draft season”. But when he performed so well in the postseason people were like, “Oh yeah..he’s really freaking fast…that’s why Darren McFadden couldn’t turn the corner on Ole Miss…”
For me, I remember watching Senior Bowl practices. And there was one drill, Singletary was leading it as 49ers were coaching the South squad. The drill was all linebackers and Singletary would say, “Light em up,” and that means you pick your feet up and down, running in place, then on his mark you go down to a pushup and back to your feet…always keeping them moving. It goes without saying its a tough drill. Guys were dying and completely falling down or stop running and by the end of the drill, there’s Patrick Willis…everyone else was freakin done…but Willis was there with perfect form…his butt down and his head up…just pumping his feet. That’s when I knew he would be a Niner.
Willis was pretty decorated
Even that year in college, people knew that Willis was good. He won the Butkus award on a defense that didn’t have a lot of talent on it—which meant that he didn’t have a lot of protection but was still making plays. Another thing that played in his favor was the fact that the Ole Miss defense switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4 between his junior and senior years, which (of course) endeared him to Mike “our defense must be multiple multiple” Nolan. Myself, I got pretty pumped to think of him as a Niner when I saw this hit on youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bM4sEmaFLQ
Throwback unis? Yes. Throwback afros? YES!
I know that not very many of us want to even think about Sanchez with the first pick, but does anybody else just not really know if he’s actually any good? It seems that almost all of his high stock to this point is based on the sum total of about 4 games… give or take… and that makes me awfully wary.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
2 years minimum
Wasn’t there a post floating around a while back talking about that in order to evaluate a QB properly he needs to have played at least 2 years?
And I agree, everyone can have a good year. Too many people fall into the hype of who’s hot right now, and forget to see what else they’ve done. If they are going to draft a QB with little experience, I’d rather it be latter round project that can be signed cheap and sit on the bench for a couple years, or wait til at least next year, when there will be a better crop of QBs from what I hear. But definitely no on Sanchez. No because he’s not good, but because we don’t know enough.
The golden numbers are 37 starts (2+ years) and something around 65% for career completion rate. Stafford has a big enough sample size, but Sanchez isn’t even close. He is a true crapshoot.
It's a lame evaluation.
It has so many qualifiers that very few college quarterbacks qualify. A QB needs to start 37 games which is basically a 3+ year starter. A QB also has to be a top 2 round pick because for some reason the NFL scouts are smart enough to know who deserves to be a picked in first two rounds dispite their ability to pick busts within those first 2 rounds on the regular. If those two criteria are met then you can look at the QB’s college comp. % and you can probably expect a completion % similar to that in the NFL.
It like saying I can predict the most succesful future college grads but in order to qualify for my career forecast you have to meet the following criteria:
A. Graduate from an Ivy League School.
B. Rank in the top 10 in your graduating class.
C. Have at least the kind of social skills that resulted in you getting laid at least 3 times during college.
by methodrampage on Feb 11, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions
What other criteria would you use to differentiate between quarterbacks? I mean, combine and pro-day work-outs are severely limited. Interviews are great, but the key is how that meeting room intellect transfers to the football field. How do you normalize production for team-mates and competition? The whole idea of statistical analysis like this is to identify sub-sets of players that might otherwise be overlooked. So, yes, it might be limited and lame, but it can be useful. And it can steer you away from guys at the top of the draft that historically have high bust rates (underclassmen, one-year starters, inaccurate passers). It’s not the only tool and I never said it was. But it is a useful tool if it’s used in the context of a comprehensive player evaluation effort.
Sure it's useful
Just like my career forecast I posted above. It’s just not that useful. The majority of QBs drafted aren’t going to qualify. So what’s a team going to do, wait until one that does falls into their lap?
Also, what’s the point of a compreshensive player evaluation after you draft a player? It seems a little after the fact, you’re already stuck with him, as a top 2 round pick. It’s not like you can say, “Well now that we qualified him for the LCF, by reaching for him in the 2nd round, it looks like he’s going to suck as a QB in the NFL”.
by methodrampage on Feb 12, 2009 8:01 AM PST up reply actions
Not Sanchez
If I were going to use my first pick on an offensive player, I’d go right tackle, wide receiver or even running back before a quarterback, and even then I’m not sure about Sanchez. I don’t if I were the Niners if I would choose a QB in the first round for another decade.
by Bob In Beaverton on Feb 11, 2009 7:20 AM PST reply actions
I had been hoping upon hoping that Amobi Okoye would drop to us.
"I’m Joey Devine, I’m what Joba Chamberlain would be if he was good and nobody had ever heard of him."
If I'm not mistaken...
… Adam Carriker and Alan Branch were two players highly regarded around these parts before that draft. As a matter of fact, I think Fooch (among others) took quite a bit of flak for preferring Carriker over Branch.
No to Sanchez
The Niners don’t need Sanchez. There will be a better QB class next year and a great pickup can be done. I agree with SeBaz on the issue of taking a QB in the later rounds so you don’t have to pay him top dollar to sit and watch. Hell, I can do the same thing for free.
Next year's QBs
The big one is Bradford, obviously. After him there are a ton of options: McCoy, Tebow, Jevan Snead, Daryll Clark, Jeremiah Masoli (whose numbers last year were at least as good as Dixon’s the year before), and maybe even Russell Wilson from NC State, who will be a third-year sophomore. Of course, there will be the usual collection of small-school, lesser-name QBs who will explode after the bowl games. Mitch Mustain at USC will be draft-eligible as well, but he’ll have the same major bug-a-boo as Sanchez (small sample-size shenanigans). Only Mustain plays in a pro-style offense.
I’m not disagreeing that waiting may be the best option, or that next year’s class might be better. I just have a feeling that – until the spread offense’s popularity regresses (might already be happening) – it will be very difficult to even think about drafting a lot of these guys in the top 10.
Chilo Rachal
I liked the SF49er.com article on Rachal. I was wondering if anyone has a video of the block that Singletary is talking about.
"The voice of the intellect is a soft one, but it does not rest until it has gained a hearing"
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