No Logo Needed mock draft: Everette Brown, OLB Florida State
by David Fucillo on Mar 12, 2009 9:00 AM PDT
in NFL Draft
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PrintEarlier this year I was recruited to take part in a mock draft with the website No Logo Needed. After some back and forth, my pick came up last night and I decided to roll the dice on Everette Brown, the outside linebacker from Florida State. Guys like Brian Orakpo and B.J. Raji had already come off the table and I wasn't touching Andre Smith. Here's my analysis of the pick:
The 49ers have various needs this offseason, but unlike what some people are predicting, a first round QB is not one of those needs. The 49ers have a pair of outside linebackers, one of whom turned in a very solid season in 2008. Parys Haralson seems to have a legitimate future going forward as a pass rushing outside linebacker. Manny Lawson is an athletic freak, but he seems less inclined to rush the passer or more likely to be a guy in coverage and in a read position.
Although Everette Brown didn't have a ton of experience (only one season as a fulltime starter), he still racked up 23 sacks for his 3-year career. This pick is a really tough one for the 49ers because it seems like they're too high for guys like Oher, but they're too low for a BJ Raji. Andre Smith is plummeting and seems like too much of a headcase. If the first 9 picks go in the above order, I think the 49ers will battle themselves in trying to decide between Michael Oher and Everette Brown. What wouldn't surprise me is if the 49ers tried to move up from the second round into the late first round to grab the right tackle they need. They've shown no qualms about making those kinds of moves, so we'll see if they do so again.
I mention this now in part because I'm really not sure what the 49ers will do at this point with the 10th pick. Assuming they don't trade down, it really seems like Michael Oher would be a reach. As pointed out before, Andre Smith is plummeting and very well could be there in the second round, if we even wanted him then.
Parys Haralson is going to be a free agent after this season. If the 49ers don't work out an extension and he puts up big numbers, he could very well take a walk. If that's the case, would it be smart to have a second man ready to succeed him? Or do you pay big money to Haralson and hope that he and Manny Lawson are the answer?
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Smith in the second round.
I just don’t see that happening. Even if he fails as a LT and has to play RT, I think some team in the late teens or early twenties of the first round will take a chance on him. The upside is just kind of ridiculously high to let slip that far.
The question is does he fill a need in the later rounds
Teams need to decide whether they are taking the “Fill the needs” strategy, or the “BPA (Best Player Available)” strategy. We have seen quality players fall far in the draft just because no one needed a player at that specific position (see: Aaron Rogers).
That being said, eventually someone will take the risk on Smith, even if they are secure at that position. Those are the teams taking the BPA route – Pick the best player even if a future HOF player at that position is already on your roster (see: Aaron Rogers).
I don’t believe that Smith will fall to us in the second round, specifically because these teams are picking before us in the 2nd:
33) Detroit
34) New England
35) St. Louis
36) Cleveland
37) Seattle
38) Cincinnati
39) Jacksonville
40) Oakland
41) Green Bay
42) Buffalo
Someone will pick Smith before 43. But maybe if he is falls into the second round, we make a move to trade up and get him? New England is always looking to increase their number of picks
Blind devotion.
by ProfessorBigelow on Mar 12, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Plummeting? Second Round?
Really? Second round Fooch? If the dominoes to fall the way they did in this draft I don’t see the 49ers picking Oher before Smith.
by Hella Niners on Mar 12, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions
It's hard to see...
… many teams taking Oher before Smith. I doubt people are THAT scared by his work ethic.
I like Parys Haralson
I like his ability to get to the passer, when he can.
Everette Brown would be a nice pick because you can always throw him in opposite Haralson on 3rd downs to rush the passer.
I think if the Niners can extend Haralson, and get a guy like Everette Brown, they will. Having a good group of LBs is never a bad thing, and in a 3-4, you can never have too OLBs. Having Haralson, Lawson and Brown rotate as our OLBs would be a fantastic option. With Lawson’s speed he could surprise defenses when he blitzes if he’s primarily used in coverage.
If we take a guy like Everette Brown at 10, it opens up the rest of the draft. Scot can sit back and say, “OK, we’ve got our pass rush guy, let’s go get our mauler”. The rest of the draft could be focused on need and best player available mentality. For example, if the Niners select Brown in the 1st and Andre Smith in the 2nd (or if they trade up to get him), the third round choice could extremely intriguing. With those first two picks the team addresses the two most pressing needs, Pass Rush and Right Tackle.
Sitting in the third round, the 49ers could go any way with the selection, because they’ve already put together an A+ draft by this time (if the two aforementioned picks are made). If Jennings or Greene is sitting available in the third round, the 49ers could afford to take a luxury like a RB. What if Josh Freeman is sitting there in the third? The Niners could take a serious look his way. If they address OLB and OT with the first two picks, they rest of the draft is wide open.
And for the record, I want Gartrell Johnson in the 5th round no matter what.
by Andrew Davidson on Mar 12, 2009 9:28 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Freeman
I still that if the 49ers have a shot at him in the second, they had better seriously consider it, because I don’t think he’ll go too far lower if he even falls that low.
We can't
We can’t take him in the second round. There are two giant needs the team has before they start addressing QB. Let another team take Freeman in the late first, or early second, not us.
by Andrew Davidson on Mar 12, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Needs vs BPA
I understand there are needs, but you can’t force a round peg into a square hole. The 49ers need a tackle and a pass rusher. If they happen to go tackle first, they can’t just force themselves to take a pass rusher just because they need one. Your first and second round picks should primarily be used as talent acquisitions, especially if you’re a bad team. If you’re a good team, you can afford to reach a little, but the 49ers are not a good team.
Agreed.
But there will be better players available over Freeman come our time to pick in the second round. So if you’re going BPA, I don’t think he’d be the best guy available on the 49ers draftboard.
by Andrew Davidson on Mar 12, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I can see that.
I can see your point, there. I definitely wasn’t arguing he’d be the BPA available at #11 in the second round, but he definitely would be worth a war room discussion at that time. He’ll be around there somewhere, if he has already fallen that far, as I’m pretty sure he’ll be gone at the bottom of the first.
I can't remember
but does Freeman have Dante Culpepper hands?
That’s the opposite of man hands, by the way.
by Andrew Davidson on Mar 12, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
According to...
… this, there is no mention about small hands.
QB, in two years, will be a giant need
Freeman, if there, is the pick in the 2nd round. You have to draft a QB with the anticipation that he’ll be your starter in two years so you can’t wait until you actually need a QB to draft one. The Niners will need a QB in two years which means QB is a big need for this draft.
As far as upside goes, the list of players who could potentially be the BPA, ahead of Freeman, in the 2nd round is very small.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 12, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
So pick up Sam Bradford when he declares
Or if Rhett Bomar sticks around long enough we should definitely pick him up. And aren’t there some people who are pretty big on that guy from Fresno State? I don’t know anything about him, I only watched one fresno state game last season and he looked decent enough in it, but I honestly have no idea.
Wanna hear some music?
If both Bradford and Freeman reach their full potential
I think I like Freeman over Bradford. Who’s even to say the Niners would be in a position to draft Bradford (pick wise) next year? You can’t go into a draft ingnoring positions because you like a guy coming out next year better.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 12, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Nothing is to say we'll be in that position
And you may be right about Freeman. The point I’m trying to make is this: solidify the team needs (like both lines) first. Also, lets get some solid WR talent here before we worry too much about all star QBs
Wanna hear some music?
It's all about upside
Freeman could do a whole hell of a lot more for the team than a DL, another OL (if a OT is take at #10) or WR (unless guys like Nicks are available). It a QB league and in the 2nd round Freeman’s value would likely be unmatched.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 12, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
OK
Then now you’d really have a real war room debate on your hands. I think the odds of both of Freeman and Nick not making out of the first round is infinitely higher than the odds of both of them falling to the Niners 2nd round pick.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 12, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Career backup?
What makes you say that?
by Brendan Scolari on Mar 13, 2009 3:35 AM PDT up reply actions
QB, in two years, a giant need?
Will it be? We are absolutely certain of that?
by Andrew Davidson on Mar 12, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, I am pretty damn certain of that
A 31 year old Shaun Hill looking for a new deal does not get me all chubby in the pants.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 12, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
BPA vs Need?
I don’t quite support the BPA philosophy, but maybe that’s because I’m missing something and someone can clarify it…
Say our draft board has 8 OT’s on it and we select Oher at #10 because for whatever reason he’s the BPA when we pick (although he wouldn’t be, but for illustration purposes). Now say round two rolls around and Ebbon Britton -OT slips and he’s on our draft board and the BPA when we pick…do we take him because we are adopting the BPA strategy even though that would give us 3 young tackles in Staley, Oher, and Britton leaving someone wasting away on the bench? and say round 3 rolls around and Jamon Meredith-OT is sitting there and he happens to be the BPA on our board, do we take him?
Or once we select Oher at 10, do we then cross OT’s off our draft board for the next few rounds? cause if we did that then one would argue, we’re not really using a pure BPA strategy, more so some Hybrid of the two.
You're a little extreme
First off, who ever is supporting the idea of drafting a OT in the first round is already adopting a BPA philosophy as LT, which a top 10 OT better be, isn’t a huge need for the Niners. Basically, people recognize the depth in the draft class at LT is deep and that Staley could play a solid RT but by no means are the Niners desperate to replace Staley at LT.
Secondly, you’re taking a far extreme position when you have that many guys at one position ranked so high. That would never happen.
I guess the easiest way to explain this would be with the drafting Freeman in the 2nd round example. Hill has proven himself serviceable, some might say he’s better than that, I’m not a huge fan but I think we can agree he’s your typical “QB of the future”. If Freeman was still available in the 2nd round he would offer more upside that just about anybody else making him, if you’re considering upside, the BPA. The Niners might have bigger needs for next year but if you’re going by the BPA philosophy you’d put those other needs on hold for the time being. It’s kind of like what Dallas did with Jones and Choice, now I get their team was already pretty damn good but they took two RB early when they already had a freshly signed stud RB. sfgfan please explain the BPA philosophy better, I think I’m struggling now.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 12, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
My approcah was intended to be extreme....
to try and make a point or get some clarification. I’m aware the chances and probability of that scenario ever playing out is slim to none. Although Denver did pick three CB’s with their first 3 picks in 2005(Williams, Paymah, Foxsworth) with Bailey on the roster at the time. And I just happened to use OT as an example. QB would be an even better example. When Atlanta picks in the first at #24 and if Stafford and/or Sanchez are available, they would be the BPA, should they select one of them?
That would obviously never happen, even if they do support selecting the BPA. So what I’m asking is, does that strategy even really exist?
In extreme theory? Probably not.
In reality I think its a lot more likely. You’d have some exceptions but I do think some team adopt a BPA philosophy. How else would you explain the Detriot Lions and their fetish for 1st round WR?
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 12, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
well that's an easy one...
They just suck at drafting because after they pick garbage like Charles Rogers and Mike Williams, they realized that they still NEED a WR..haha. If Crabtree is the best player in this draft(which is arguable) but most believe he is, you’re saying Detroit should draft him?
The Lions obviously thought
Charles Roger, Mike Williams, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson were the BPA (and they sucked at drafting). Crabtree isn’t close to being the best player in this draft. So whats the point in talking like he is.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 12, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Smith and Monroe are both probably better
How often does the top player in the draft fall outside the top 5 picks?
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 12, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Just because...
his draft stock may have slipped doesn’t mean he’s not the BPA. His surgery may have affected his value as far as this year is concerned because his conditioning will be advesley affected while he recovers. He may not make that immediate impact from day 1 that teams and scouts thought he would cause it may take him slightly longer now to move up the depth chart into that starting spot, but the talent and attributes that made teams and scouts deem him the BPA havn’t gone away. I just picked Crabtree at #5 in the new mock, so I guess I don’t think he will fall outside the top 5.
Just because...
You think he’s the BPA doesn’t mean he is. Some people have doubts about his speed and personally I’m not convinced that he is the best player in the draft but it’s just a matter of opinion. Whether he is or isn’t is a mute point regarding Detroit and the BPA philosophy. Every team is in a different a situation and have different drafting philosophies some have the luxury of doing certain things in a draft and I would consider adopting the BPA philosophy as a kind of luxury. Like I said before there are exceptions to the BPA philosophy, the Lions have a ton of needs and their best player is a young premier talent at WR so maybe they decide to go with the 2ndBPA philosophy with their first pick but I digress what ever philosophy the Lions employ has little to do with what philosophy the Niners should employ and with the 10th pick I think the Niners should go the BPA route.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 12, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I am hoping that Jason Smith makes it to # 10.
Then we get the BPA and the top OT in the draft. Mind you that Andre Smith was once considered the top OT so we could trade down and maybe pick him up and get another 2nd rounder to play with
I also don’t like Freeman in the second round. From what I have seen and heard on ESPN and other shows he has some upside but he is really not that solid of a pick. There are other QBs later who would have as much upside and could sit for a year or two and possibly take over. Also, the 49ers may now believe that they have the QB of the future on their team now.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
"There are other QBs later who would have as much upside"
Who?
Also, the 49ers may now believe that they have the QB of the future on their team now.
Who?
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
Everette Brown, this is an example of a team reaching for top 10 talent when the supply doesn’t exist. Michael Oher, although not gifted with top 10 athletic talent will be a good 49er player and does fill a need.
The entire value for your pick thesis is completely bogus. Just because the best guy to fit your team is probably the 20th best prospect doesn’t mean you are wrong taking him at the 10th pick. You never go wrong adding a guy who can help the team. When you start playing the draft/value game you end up losing perspective resulting in bad drafts.
I don’t see how Everette Brown helps the team? He’s too small for run downs. Yes, there is a chance he could be pass rush beast . . . although history DE’s in draft show only 10-15% of those top picks pan out. Still the guy would taking reps away from Parys Haralson while we try to find out because there aren’t a lot situations where I can see having both on the field.
What are you talking about?
Just because the best guy to fit your team is probably the 20th best prospect doesn’t mean you are wrong taking him at the 10th pick. You never go wrong adding a guy who can help the team.
Usually the BPA would help your team. So you haven’t really supported the idea of not drafting the BPA vs. drafting soley on need. The point being, that it’s foolish to reach for guys when their is other premier talent left on the board that the team could still afford to upgrade.
I don’t see how Everette Brown helps the team? He’s too small for run downs.
Since when is a 252 lbs OLB too small for run downs?
Still the guy would taking reps away from Parys Haralson while we try to find out because there aren’t a lot situations where I can see having both on the field.
Maybe. If Haralson proves to be the real deal then Lawson would be the man out. Everett Brown would very much fill a big need and most likely be the BPA at #10. The upgrade of Oher from Staley isn’t worth the 10th round pick.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 12, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Since I got slammed
Sorry, maybe you don’t see the distinction between prospect and player as I do. If you re-read my statement I never used BPA . . . did I? When a potential draftee is referred as a prospect it usually speaks to his overall perceived ceiling as an NFL performer. When a draftee is referred as a player it’s usually a reflection of his football acclaim.
Everette Brown ranks high on the prospect scale because he shows great atheism but is short for the position . . . not to mention he is protocol speed 4-3 DE and not an OLB. Oh, let me mention again he has to get past Manny and Haralson on the depth chart to contribute. Obviously, you have no love for Manny, the guys a solid defender just his strength isn’t the pass rush.
Having the 10th pick doesn’t you mean pick the guy with the 10th best potential up side. If Everette Brown can’t rush the QB than there isn’t much he can do in the league. He would be a complete bust, especially since the 49ers cannot give him game time to develop because Manny and Haralson would be in the game. He’s definitely not going to cover the end better than Lawson to get on the field for run plays
A better pick would be Micheal Oher (probably the guy with the 20th best draft upside) because he has football skills that transfer to the pro level, he isn’t transitioning into a new scheme or position. Most importantly he can start out as the RT immediately and will have time to grow into the role. The guy doesn’t project to pro bowl quality but can be starter for years and is far less likely to bust. That my friend is value. Reaching for alleged pass rusher and getting nothing in return is zero value.
No, you don’t have drop down 5 or 10 spots to justify taking a guy like Oher . . . it’s the dumbest theory about drafts. If he is the best player for you team but less sexy than 10 other available players you still take him . . . you don’t try to talk yourself into a sexier pick.
I’ve got several issues with your approach. First Everette Brown was a very productive player this past season at FSU. He was inconsistent, but when he brought it, he was dominant. He may be a project due to his height, but his height would actually be more of an issue at DE where he could be easily swallowed by taller OTs. 3-4 OLB is perfect for him because he can move around and better take advantage of his athleticism and minimize a large weakness (his height).
Of course, he will have to get past Manny Lawson to contribute much on this team (I’m assuming that Parys is our primary pass-rusher going forward). A lot of people have been talking about how good Manny is in coverage and I respect that. He’s a great athlete who is great dropping back. However, he plays the second most important pass-rush position in our scheme. The 3-4 is not designed to get sacks from the DEs. The OLBs – as Fooch demonstrated in a great statistical post recently – are expected to bring the vast majority of the pressure. Manny doesn’t do that. Our defense is starved for pass-rush and right now it only comes from one guy most of the time. Great pass-rush = great defense. We have neither at this time. I’ll err with the potentially good pass-rusher over the proven poor pass-rusher.
Okay, so if Oher is the pick you want to make but could likely be had later, why is it dumb to trade back? Please tell me. I actually think Oher would not be a terrible pick (definitely not a good one), but that’s not the fight I’m picking. Why wouldn’t you trade back, if you could? I know I would. You get more picks and you save a lot money. More players for less money (when you’re still getting the guy you want) is how great teams are built. If we were to pine after a guy like Oher, someone would want to trade up for Crabtree or Sanchez or Maclin or somebody available at 10.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
A lot of people have been talking about how good Manny is in coverage and I respect that. He’s a great athlete who is great dropping back.
Lawson routinely gets pulled for a DB on passing downs. Everybody is overrating his pass coverage abilities and without his overrated pass coverage abilities he’s almost useless.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 13, 2009 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Ok, sure dude.
When a potential draftee is referred as a prospect it usually speaks to his overall perceived ceiling as an NFL performer. When a draftee is referred as a player it’s usually a reflection of his football acclaim.
I think you’re making this up. By nature every college player is a prospect.
Obviously, you have no love for Manny, the guys a solid defender just his strength isn’t the pass rush
Manny isn’t much a of defender, he was supposed to be a pass rusher coming out of college but that’s failed to translate at the NFL level. He’s also not much to write home about in pass coverage either as he gets pulled off the field on passing downs. He’s basically replacement level. Haralson hasn’t really proven to be much more than a situational pass rusher, his every down ability is a still a question mark. An upgrade is needed at OLB.
Having the 10th pick doesn’t you mean pick the guy with the 10th best potential up side. If Everette Brown can’t rush the QB than there isn’t much he can do in the league.
You’re right, it doesn’t necessarilly mean you pikc the guy with 10th most upside but it does mean that you don’t reach for the guy with the 20th most upside. 10 slots is huge in the first round. If Everette Brown can’t rush the QB, which I see no reason to assume he can’t, he’d be no worse than Lawson.
Reaching for alleged pass rusher and getting nothing in return is zero value.
Brown is not a reach at 10. Apparently you don’t get it and never will. Drafting a non-pro bowl caliber RT at pick #10 has zero value as quality non-pro bowl caliber RT can be found much later.
No, you don’t have drop down 5 or 10 spots to justify taking a guy like Oher . . . it’s the dumbest theory about drafts. If he is the best player for you team but less sexy than 10 other available players you still take him
We’re not talking about a sexy pick like Sanchez or something. OLB is a big time f-ing need, I’d say much bigger than RT. But again this is a concept that you’re completely failing to grasp.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Mar 13, 2009 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Indeed.
OLB is a big time f-ing need, I’d say much bigger than RT.
I’ll go out on a limb and even say there are at least two other positions that are probably the same as (if not higher than) RT on the priority list. What are they? Probably a true NT and a FS. A pass rusher out of this offseason is a definite must, especially if the team seems like it’s content with Franklin and Sopoaga in the middle.
Depends on how you translate the situation.
You never go wrong adding a guy who can help the team.
As it stands, any top 10 pick the 49ers take, as long as they’re smart about it, will improve this team. The 49ers can basically use an upgrade at ALL positions on their roster except WILB. With a team that needs all the talent it can get still (not just at specific positions), reaching is a huge mistake, especially if you’re reaching 10 spots for a player in the FIRST ROUND.
As for Brown, I don’t see how you can perceive him as being too small. At almost 260 pounds, he seems to be right about in line with most 3-4 OLBs. Unless you’re looking at him as a DE? If that’s the case, then you’re just looking at him wrong. I don’t know if Brown is the best pick, but he surely isn’t as bad as you make him out to be.
Everette Brown
If he falls to us we have to take him. Both he and orakpo is all I would use that pick on. Trade the pick if you cant get either.
Draft picks
Other than the 1st ( 10th) and 2nd (43th) round pick, does anyone know the rest of rounds and picks? It sure would be nice to know where the niners stand regarding that! I’ve look everywhere and cann’t seem to find it. Thanks
I think the Niners would take Brown too
but it’s looking more and more likely that he’ll be off the board by 10, either to the browns, possibly bengals, or packers
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