What do mock drafts tell us? People are hung up on QBs and the 49ers
by Fooch on Mar 15, 2009 9:00 AM PDT
in Draft
48 comments
I finally updated our mock draft database last night and it got me thinking about the mocks that fly around out on the Internet. The Internet allows pretty much anybody but an uneducated chimpanzee to project their voice to the masses (just see yours truly). Due to that, the number of mock drafts increase every single year. I'd argue there's some sort of critical mass that will be reached, but given the stretch of the Internet, it would take a long time to reach that point.
I only have 31 mock drafts listed. That's not even remotely close to approaching the total number of mocks out there. However, I think it does give us a decent idea of what people are thinking out there. Which brings me to the QB at 10 phenomenon.
While more and more of the "educated" folks (Kiper, McShay) seem to be recognizing the 49ers will not be drafting a quarterback, quite a few random folks remain sold on the 49ers taking a QB. And these are relatively reputable sites including WalterFootball.com and Draft Countdown. Maybe not your ESPNs and SIs of the world, but still pretty well known sites.
So my question is this: Are the folks that are projecting Mark Sanchez or Matthew Stafford to the 49ers lazy, misinformed, some combination of that, or maybe something else?
I realize it's not easy to research all 32 teams. However, when it comes to a first round pick, particularly a top 10 pick, a little knowledge is important. I've posted a poll because I'm curious how many folks here would actually see the 49ers drafting a QB in the first round. For that third option (any other QB), feel free to include any potential trade down from 10 to lower in the first round.
Personally, I would really be quite surprised if the 49ers grabbed a quarterback in the first round. Shaun Hill and Alex Smith are signed for two more years. If neither steps up, there will be no extra chance for either guy. That would make it seem like the 49ers do have a desire for a QB in this draft. However, as I've said a million times before, I think the 49ers will wait until later in the draft to address that need.
So, what do folks think? Mock drafts obviously have to be taken with a grain of salt. However, I'd still like to hear folks thoughts on this little conundrum.
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Here's a database of Mocks that gets updated everyday with a bunch of new ones
some are better than others but many have insights into different teams which make them worth reading.
by foosball4949 on Mar 15, 2009 9:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Crazy Mocks
Yeah I’m seeing too many QB’s and also too much Aaron Maybin. I see in one mock where we past up on BJ Raji. Hopefully if we don’t get Orakpo or Brown we trade down and take Johnson from GT who has a tremendous upside. Were gonna be taking a chance at 10 no matter what sso I hope the move is to trade down if those 3 guys are’nt available. (Orakpo, Brown, and Raji)
by rlott#42 on Mar 15, 2009 9:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree the best move is to trade down
I also don’t want Maybin, but I don’t want Johnson either. He’s a physical freak but so is VD. He’s a classic underachiever and not worth the risk. I’d also be scared of asking him to change positions on top of improving his work ethic
by foosball4949 on Mar 15, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also agree with this
What I would like to see the niners do is trade the #10 and say our 3rd rnd pick to the Eagles for their 2 1st rnd picks. Then trade one of these picks with a 2nd rounder in the 2010 draft to Carolina for Julius Peppers.
We acquire a quality pass rusher thus filling a major need, we still have a 1st rnd pick to draft a RT thus filling another need. The cost to us is a 3rd rounder this yr and a 2nd rounder next yr. What do you guys think? Is this feasible, or am I just living in fantasyland?
by Ninerfromacrossthepond on Mar 15, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
fantasy land
As much as I love Peppers, I’m not sure he’s worth that. Also, we shouldn’t have to offer a 3rd rounder for the Eagles to move up
by foosball4949 on Mar 15, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, this was just to test the water over the value
of the picks we would need to give up in order to make this trade happen. I don’t know what the value of the #10 pick is compared to the 2 1st rnd picks the Eagles have. Could we just do a straight swap for them? You would have a much better idea than me on that.
The point I was trying to make was basically to do what we have to do in order to make the trade for Peppers. If that means we don’t need to offer what I said above then great.
However, I do believe we need to improve our defense – especially the pass rush – to a level that will compete with the likes of Arizona if we are to win the division and make the p/offs. Acquiring a player like Peppers will achieve that.
What do you think we need to offer in order to get Peppers? Thats if you would do the trade, would you?
by Ninerfromacrossthepond on Mar 15, 2009 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Draft Value Chart
Here’s a link to the draft value chart, which assigns a numerical value to each pick in the draft.
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php
Its meant to be used as a guideline and not an absolute rule. It also may be a bit dated, since I believe it was developed by Jimmy Johnson. Nevertheless, I’ve read that teams still use it (or some closely related variant of it).
According to the chart, the #10 pick is worth 1,300 points. #21 is worth 800 points. To come up with the points necessary to make this work the Eagles would have to offer us two 3rd round picks, in addition to #21. Alternatively, we could offer the Eagles #10 and our 3rd round pick (#74) (1,300 + 220 = 1,520) for #21 and #28 (800 +660 = 1,460). I would be VERY supportive of such a trade.
by kiyoshi on Mar 15, 2009 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Alternatively, we could offer the Eagles #10 and our 3rd round pick (#74) (1,300 + 220 = 1,520) for #21 and #28 (800 +660 = 1,460). "
But that’s exactly what ninerfromacrossthepond originally proposed and you said we wouldn’t need to include the 3rd rounder? Sorry, but I’m a bit confused what you’re stance is.
I don’t think there’s any way the Eagles would trade both first rounders for just the number ten pick, they’d need the 3rd rounder as well at least. Also, I think one of Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith would have to be available or they wouldn’t make the trade.
by Brendan Scolari on Mar 15, 2009 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is what he first proposed and I was the one who thought it wasn't worth it, not Kiyoshi
I simply thought that we could give up a lower round pick than a third. My thinking was that if a team is willing to move up into the top 10 as opposed to moving up a little lower in the first round, they tend to give up more than they should to make the move and that we should hope for that while we’re hoping
by foosball4949 on Mar 15, 2009 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My mistake then.
For some reason I thought you two were the same poster.
I think we’d have to give up a third, and even then the Eagles might not do it. But there’s nothing wrong with hoping for better.
by Brendan Scolari on Mar 15, 2009 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another Possibility
Just based on the chart, it looks like we could also offer the Eagles #10 and our 4rd & 5th round picks (#106 and #138) (1,300 + 82+ 37 = 1,419) for #21 and #28 (800 +660 = 1,460).
by kiyoshi on Mar 16, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Kiyoshi for the link to the chart
I had no idea that this existed. I think we should do the trade with the Eagles if poss and I like the proposal of giving up our 4th and 5th rnd picks.
However, I read on nfl.com today that Peppers is going to the Patriots in exchange for just a 2nd rnd pick – the one they got from the Chiefs for Cassel.
Can someone please explain to me why the niners do not seem to be in for any of the top quality players that were available in FA? Looks like Cutler wants a trade and I bet we will not go in for him either!This was discussed in another thread. It is making me most disappointed and I am beginning to get despondent about next season already!!
by Ninerfromacrossthepond on Mar 16, 2009 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Draft Value Chart
After taking a look at the chart, I am staggered at the drop off of points from the #1 overall pick-3000pts- down to the #16 overall pick-1000pts.
The player picked first overall is rated as being 3times better than than the player picked 16th. Is this borne out as accurate from the players picked down the yrs do you reckon?
by Ninerfromacrossthepond on Mar 16, 2009 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
The chart is considered outdated by most people nowadays. Trading up is way more expensive on the chart than it actually should be, especially because of the contracts the top 5 or so picks get.
by Brendan Scolari on Mar 16, 2009 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The big problem with most of these mock draft is the writers tend to take the easy way out. If a big name QB starts to fall, they just say, “screw it, I’ll give Sanchez to the 9ers otherwise he might fall to far.”
by briandean on Mar 15, 2009 1:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
the other thing is
as an outsider you look at this team and you see Shaun Hill and Alex Smith on the roster. Not many people probably consider those guys as viable long term answers at QB. We, having seen a lot of their play, think that Hill can be a winner and Smith still has a lot of upside. We see a team that has a real chance to compete if we have a solid defense. So we recognize that a QB is not the #1 need right now. But other people look at a team without an obvious “franchise QB” and assume they will try to get one with a top 10 pick.
Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis
by wjackalope on Mar 15, 2009 1:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think a lot of people see who is at QB...
And do realize the 49ers have a need there. At least I do.
Well, we're waiting....
by drummer on Mar 15, 2009 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Up Draft
Since some have talked about trading down for additional picks, why not trade up? Why not! If they trade the Lions for their 1st, then we can give the 1st,3rd and 5th or whatever you may decide. Then you can pick OT Jason Smith or Monroe or whoever . The Niners have 7 draft choices and two supplemental (supple start after the third round).So what do you lose. you could get the best lineman in the draft and still be able to pick up some quality players afterward. By getting the number 1 player in the Draft,( rated by some, not by others) you can actually make a good decision or a iffy decision at #10. I know, I’ll probably get RIPPED for this comment, but lets explore all possibilies. I’m all for a lineman and this may be the way to get the best OT out there.
by LASVEGASNINER on Mar 15, 2009 1:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No one ever wants the 1st pick because it cost $50-$60 million.
by bignerd on Mar 15, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The cost and the fact that this team is not a single player away. Last year the 9ers were not a team that was bad due to lots of injuries (like the Seahawks and Jaguars, to an extent). They were just bad. Many positions need depth and talent. That’s what third and fifth rounders are for.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
by cornball on Mar 15, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
this
plus I don’t think there’s any player deserving of trading up for in this draft, even Aaron Curry
by foosball4949 on Mar 15, 2009 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding Defense
The Defense wasn’t that bad last year. Rated 13th overall. What kill them was being on the field to long.The Offense couldn’t sustain drives long enough and the defense came in for the rescue. I’m going to say it again and if I to say it over and over,so be it. In 2007 and 2008, the NFL Offense rush stats indicated that the Niners were the 27th worst rushing Offense. 3 downs and out is something I don’t want see again. Besides, if Singletary wants to run, how is he going to do that? Not with that Offensive line! I know, go ahead and tell how wrong I am. But if they are close to being the worst rushing team for 2009, I will tell you now, “I TOLD YOU SO” !
by LASVEGASNINER on Mar 15, 2009 1:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So what's the big deal with Sanchez (our #2 votegetter - although, kind of by a lonshot)?
It seems to me that he’s essentially turned one good game and a weak draft class into a resume for being a top-ten pick.
I get that he has tools, but man he has shown so ridiculously little over such a short time as a college quarterback, at least when compared to other guys who regularly get the kind of optimistic treatment he’s been receiving.
Any other year outside of ’05, would he even be a first round pick? I have a hard time believing it. There are lower risk, equal reward players at other positions of need that high in the draft. Sanchez just seems like a waste of a #10 pick to me.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Mar 15, 2009 2:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
what was that formula for predicting QB success?
a certain completion % and a certain number of starts…
Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis
by wjackalope on Mar 15, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think 2 years starting and 60% completion.
They also have to be scouted in the first two rounds, I believe.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Mar 15, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well he has the completion %
but not enough starts.
Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis
by wjackalope on Mar 15, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
Next year’s draft should be loaded at QB. We’re fine with Hill and Smith for at least this year
by foosball4949 on Mar 15, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Money?
Money isn’t the issue. It’s about Value. It’s the differences between picking someone like Patrick Willis or Alex Smith. Both #1 picks! Everyone complains about Smiths Salary yet no one mentions Willis deal. WHY? The differences is who’s playing .Who’s making a differences ? Between #1 to #10 is about how much? That big a difference? You get what you pay for and sometimes you don’t! Great, get your Pass Rusher or your WR. How is that going to help the QB or Running back? The difference is improvement at the weakest point of attack and that the line. My opinion is based on NFL stats. and it clearly shows the weakest part of the Niners game is the Offensive line.If you don’t believe what I’m saying ,check it out yourself and prove me wrong. And if I am, I will give everyone an apology who has read my comments.
by LASVEGASNINER on Mar 15, 2009 2:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Is it the OL or the QB
So the 49ers led the league in sacks allowed (55)…that definately means get a OL man right? You may even include the Lions (second in sacks allowed 52). However, the Steelers allowed 49 sacks last season and won it all. Maybe you think its the run game….Well no, Pittsburg ranked 23rd in rushing, and the niners 27th. They were even similar in passing yards. The major difference? The turnover ratio. The steelers had a +4 while the niners had a -17!!! They fumbled a total of 36 times. 15 from the rushers, but the other 21 from mostly the qb. The ints were high too…Its the QB who makes or breaks teams. Shaun HIll is decent, but lacks poise on 3rd downs in the red zone. We need someone who can make the big throws and hold on to the ball….I dont think the draft has those individuals… I’d trade our picks and try to get a decent qb. I gtg for the moment but I’ll be back with more. My stats? Rock solid, from nfl.com. In particular, http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?offensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&archive=false&seasonType=REG&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&d-447263-s=FUMBLES_TOTAL&d-447263-n=1&season=2008&qualified=true&Submit=Go&tabSeq=2&role=TM&d-447263-p=1
by 9erguy on Mar 15, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would rather the 49ers trade up next year and get one of those QBs.
There is a lot more upside in the 2010 draft class than in the 2009 for QBs. Stafford and Sanchez would probably be the 4th and 5th best QBs next year. We don’t need to draft a 1st round QB now just to do it.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Mar 15, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about we trade the #10 pick to Detroit for their # 20 pick in 2009 and their 2010 1st round pick.
We would get a much better QB next year with that 1st round pick that with our #10 now or even Detroit’s #1 now.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Mar 15, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
“Everyone complains about Smiths Salary yet no one mentions Willis deal. WHY? The differences is who’s playing .Who’s making a differences ? Between #1 to #10 is about how much? That big a difference?”
Patrick Willis got a 5 year deal for 16 million with 12 million guaranteed. Alex Smith got a 6 year deal for 49.5 million with 24 million guaranteed. So yes there is a GIGANTIC difference. Smith got more than 6 times as much base salary and twice as much guaranteed money. The difference between the top and bottom halves of the first round contract-wise is enormous, specifically for the top 5 picks. Thats why teams can’t trade out of the top 5 every year, even though they want to. Recently its been reported that Bill Belichick said he would rather have the 34th pick than the 4th pick, so obviously the money is a pretty big deterrant.
“The difference is improvement at the weakest point of attack and that the line. My opinion is based on NFL stats. and it clearly shows the weakest part of the Niners game is the Offensive line.”
I agree that RT is a huge need. However, we still need help all over. According to Football Outsiders, whose stats provide a much better picture than standard NFL stats in my opinion, the Niners were ranked 27th on offense. They were 29th in pass offense and 27th in rush offense, so they need to improve in both areas a lot, and I don’t think that all boils down to one offensive line spot. The rest of the line should be pretty static. If the Niners really want to be good on offensive, they’ll need better QB play, better receivers and tight ends, and a good backup for Gore on top of help for the O-line.
On defense they were ranked 19th, 20th against the pass and 18th against the run. They obviously need more pash rush, with better play from the corners (other than Clements) and a rangy FS to be good against the pass. TO improve against the run I think they just need more run stuffing along the defensive line. If BJ Raji was drafted and Balmer steps up his game, I think we would see huge improvement. But needless to say I don’t think the O-Line is the only issue with the team.
by Brendan Scolari on Mar 15, 2009 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hills numbers
Check it out for yourself.—— www.nfl.com/players/shaunhill/ situational stats. His red zone stats are very good. 11 tds in the red zone? he only threw for 13 TDs. Hill fumble 8 times, lost 2. 2 out of 36= 5.5%. not bad for a 2nd stringer! His overall stats are very good as well. I’ll be checking how many times the running backs were tackle behind the line That info. will be forecoming or if anyone can find it,post it . This information is really good!
by LASVEGASNINER on Mar 15, 2009 5:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What do you guys think about....
…Nate Davis (QB-Ball State) in a later round? He intrigues if he’s available on the 2nd day.
Never use a big word where a diminutive alternative would suffice.
by YoungWillis on Mar 15, 2009 5:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
3th Qtr or 3rd and goal?
Actually his 3th Qtr QB Rating is 49.7, but his QB Rating in 3th and goal is 82.9. Go to nfl.com/players or sport.yahoo.com/nfl/players. That’s where I’m getting this info.
by LASVEGASNINER on Mar 15, 2009 6:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Cutler
Cutler! Get him. He is the difference. Call me what you will, but he can change our misfortune. Give them their choice of Smith or Hill and the # 10, or 2-3 other draft picks. whatever they want. The NFL is all about the QB.
49ers and TOOL live, my personal Heaven!!!
by CW30 on Mar 15, 2009 8:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Would you make that trade if you were Denver though?
I wouldn’t.
by Brendan Scolari on Mar 15, 2009 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a Singletary Guy
No way the 49ers trade for Cutler. His whining in Denver proves he’s not a Singletary guy.
by Circus Act on Mar 17, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He isn't happy
As far as they’re concerned, he is a cancer.
49ers and TOOL live, my personal Heaven!!!
by CW30 on Mar 15, 2009 11:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The only need?
bablue—-I never said that the O-line was the only need. I said that it was the most important need. Granted,there are other issues with the Niners such D-line,D-backs and other positions. but, I said never the only need. Your stats are also incorrect.Go to the Niner home page and click STATS and you will see. Thanks!
by LASVEGASNINER on Mar 16, 2009 10:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Don Banks and Stafford at #10
After the Alex Smith mistake, I don’t see the 49ers taking Stafford at #10. But Don Banks’ board on SI.com is interesting because he’s got a lot of other players that are slotting in at #10 already picked up like Brown, Raji, Sanchez and Orakpo. If picks 1 through 9 go down like Banks projects, who would the 49ers take at #10 – Missouri’s Maclin, Alabama’s Davis, Penn St.‘s Maybin, maybe Illinois’ Smith?
by Circus Act on Mar 17, 2009 11:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Mixup
You crossed up Davis’ and Smith’s alma maters.
In any case, I would want the team to take a shot at Smith before taking Maclin or Maybin. As I previously stated, if McCloughan takes Maclin at #10, he should be fired. Same may go for Maybin as well. Davis, I could probably be a little more “eh” about, though he probably one of the more physically gifted corners in this draft.
by sfgfan on Mar 17, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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