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Fools Gold: Panning for NFL Draft Busts

49ersdraft_mediumNFL teams spend massive amounts of time and energy scouting the Draft. No expense is spared while trying to unearth hidden gems from college campuses across the country. So how can it be so difficult to see that big fat bust staring them right in the face? Let's take a stab at identifying some of those potential busts. I don't think all of these players will bust. In fact, I like some of them quite a bit, but they should be evaluated with caution. I'll try to keep it within the positions the 49ers are likely to be interested in on draft day.  

Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: Crabtree had the biggest name and most hype of any prospect heading into the postseason, resulting in the #1 overall ranking on many boards. But there are a few things that don't add up. First of all, the offense he played in was a gimmicky spread system that hasn't produced any real NFL talent in the passing game despite lofty college numbers. If you're expecting Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin, the guys Crabtree is most often compared to, you might be dissapointed. His size, routes and ball skills are nowhere near where Fitzgerald was coming out. And he isn't the physical beast Boldin was. He's sort of a poor man's hybrid of those two guys.

That's not to say Crabtree isn't good, but guys like Mike Williams, Peter Warrick, Reggie Williams were held in high regard as underclassmen coming into the league and couldn't separate at the next level. Add his recent injury concerns and the potential lack of any workouts and you have a recipe for disaster. Heck, depending on how things shake out, he could actually become a steal. It would be hard not to pull the trigger if he fell to #10.

Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: There was talk Andre Smith could be in the mix for the #1 pick in the draft. The Combine squashed any of those thoughts. Smith is still a beast, but that won't overcome the major questions about his character and work ethic. Every one of these guys is supremely talented and most of them can be as good as they want to be. But you gotta want it. And that's one place the 49ers have been great at--adding high character players with a good work ethic. I'd be extremely surprised if Smith is even on McSing's draft board at this point--along with many other teams. Andre Smith could be in for a huge fall.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: I never got the hype with DHB. He's fast--very fast. A 4.30 40 on a slow track at Indy is testament to that. To me, he's a one-trick pony whose value has always been tied to his straight-line speed.  I worry about his change of direction and route running ability. I wouldn't touch him in the first round with a 40 yard pole. Former Vikings draft pick Troy Williamson and former 49er Ashley Lelie come to mind. The only saving grace for DHB would be that his offense at Maryland was less than desirable for a WR and may not have developed or showcased his talents. Compare his lack of lateral quickness and ability to break tackles to the Crabtree video above or this Hakeem Nicks reel.

Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss: Questions about Oher's intelligence and passion for the game have damped his hype as the top prospect as his position. Add that to the fact that scouts are questioning not only whether he can handle left side, but if he may end up a guard and Oher will probably find himself outside the top 10. That said, all he's done in his career is dominate opponents when he locks on. The definition of a "boom or bust" prospect.

Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State: Came out too early, plain and simple. You have to wonder about his character and maturity. This may be a case of a guy who is a legend in his own mind. I mean, he didn't even start at Penn State for a full season. He ran a poor 40 at the combine and could be in for a big fall ala Ko Simpson a few years ago who fell to the Buffalo Bills in the 4th after being touted as a 1st rounder. Another Sophomore Koren Robinson left school too soon and even though the talent was there, the team who drafted him never saw the results.

The Quarterbacks: I have to be honest, 1st round QBs scare the bejesus out of me. Is Matthew Stafford on par with the Mannings of the world as a  #1 overall pick? Or is he (and his mediocre 57% completion rate at Georgia) just the highest ranked QB this year like Alex Smith was in 2005 and countless others who haven't lived up to the billing? Mark Sanchez has less film to watch than any potential 1st rounder I can remember. Josh Freeman is a case-study in how to waste a 1st round draft pick. Every mistake made at QB in the draft starts with a big kid and a rifle arm. Throwing a ball through the goal posts from the 50 yard line has nothing to do with playing NFL quarterback. The position is played from the neck up. Have I mentioned the lack of success for QBs who leave college early? How about the lack of success for QBs with a completion percentage under 60%? And the fast rising Pat White was so underrated he's become overrated. I've got no problem with White in the 3rd or later and developing him in a slash role. In fact, I thought that might be a little high when I put White there in my first mock draft. You can't deny his athletic ability, toughness, work ethic and ability to win. But it's looking now like White wont get out of the 2nd round as a pure QB. People are throwing away four years of film and judging him by how he threw one day in shorts--that's a mistake. Maybe the biggest factor with all these QBs entering the NFL is the time they have to make a decision and make a throw. Remember how easy it was torching the neighborhood kids in the backyard with your Nerf turbo when nobody was counting alligators?

Next time I'll take a look at prospects who are the safest bets in the upcoming draft. I'm interested to hear different takes on the guys I listed. Also, who redlines your bust-o-meter?

FOOCH'S NOTE: For new readers, a quick bio on briandean: He's the NFL Draft specialist here at Niners Nation. Brian currently works in sports talk radio and might be seen around the Bay Area at various indie rock hot spots--both on stage and at the bar. All you need to know about Brian is he once left his Community College baseball team to instead go on tour with his band.  So he is both extremely dedicated and completely unreliable.  In addition to his work at Niners Nation, Brian has worked as a freelance writer for KFFL.com, who you know for their "hot off the wire" content if you play Yahoo! fantasy sports.

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an offensive tackle if you must. but Andre Smith has more flags then the Olympic opening ceremonies.

by save10 on Mar 2, 2009 8:27 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

but

he’s still safer than the QBs.

MURS for President!!!!!!!

by jtoj on Mar 2, 2009 9:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Safer with less upside

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Mar 2, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

My impression

What I’ve heard abut A Smith is that he’s still a guy you pick with his long-term upside in mind. Remember that he’s an underclassman just like Sanchez and Stafford. Who of the QB’s has more upside to you, Method? It seems to me like Stafford’s inaccuracy and inconsistency are pretty ummm…consistent over his tenure at Georgia.

Throwback unis? Yes. Throwback afros? YES!

by grantmp on Mar 2, 2009 10:48 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd say Sanchez has a higher ceiling

But Stafford is more NFL ready. Basically, all I’m getting at is that an impact QB is way more valuable than an impact OT.

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Mar 2, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

agree to disagree

an impact QB is more important when you already have an impact OT. If you have an impact QB with no O-Line, you have more than just problems, you have an expensive QB on IR.

by Andrew Davidson on Mar 2, 2009 12:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Good read

I’m glad not everyone is buying into all the hype.

Just one question: “counting alligators?” Is that a west coast thing? What happened to counting mississippi’s?

by Sebaz49 on Mar 2, 2009 8:49 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

It must be a west coast thing. I remember counting mississippis a few times too.

by briandean on Mar 2, 2009 12:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

you guys didn’t count steamboats?

by Andrew Davidson on Mar 2, 2009 12:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

DHB...

I’m going to have to disagree with you regarding DHB because at the combine he showed he’s much more than just straight line speed. He had an extremely good work-out in the positional drills and surprised the analysts with his route running. He may not go round one but thats because I think WR’s may fall again with the trend towards OL going heavy towards the bottom half (Beatty, Britton, Unger, Robinson, Mack etc.)

by 49er4life on Mar 2, 2009 9:20 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Texas Tech

Sorry to correct, but they have produced one big time threat at the NFL level: Wes Welker.

He was an undrafted rookie FA, but still, he came from the spread at Tech and is a terror for teams to match up with.

by Andrew Davidson on Mar 2, 2009 10:17 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Welker

He was improving in Miami and then blew up in New England. Do you think his explosion in New England has just as much to do with the use of a sort of spread offense and having Randy Moss taking the best cover man?

by Fooch on Mar 2, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think its a combination to do with Moss, the scheme and the coaching staff in New England. He was Tech’s all time leader in all-purpose yards.

I’m just saying Tech has produced one terror at the NFL level, not zero. (I’m a Red Raider fan, just had to clear it up)

by Andrew Davidson on Mar 2, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Good call on Welker. Forgot about him coming out of that system.

by briandean on Mar 2, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybin

I have no idea what to think about this guy. McShay says he wouldn’t blink before taking him in the top 10, but from the post-combine mocks I’ve read, I haven’t seen him before #12 likely due to his slow 40 time. In the Rose Bowl he looked good, but not the terror that he’s been described as; he had a sack/fumble, but it was called back because he lined up off-side. The talk on him is all “upside” and “quick off the edge” but that speed seems to have been taken down a notch with the 15 pounds of “muscle” (read: water) that he added so that he’d win the battle with the scale at the combine.

Throwback unis? Yes. Throwback afros? YES!

by grantmp on Mar 2, 2009 10:46 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Great List

Could not agree more. More DE’s should be on the list. How many picks gets wasted each year for a guy who suppose to get to the QB?

by bignerd on Mar 2, 2009 11:34 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

My question is this:

If Andre Smith is sitting at the 10 spot, and Michael Oher is too, who do the Niners take?

Pro days will shape things out a bit better, but realistically both of these guys could be available at 10, and if that’s the case who do they take? Or do they bypass both and go for someone else?

by Andrew Davidson on Mar 2, 2009 12:01 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

When I think of the quarterbacks in the draft

I remember that Alex Smith is only 24. That’s really young. He’s had a world of experience. If he’s got the tools wouldn’t it be better to keep Smith at a discount rather than get a QB in the draft? If the Niners get Warner, which would push Hill to backup, would it be so bad to have Smith as third-string? The Warner thing is actually a little more intriguing if Smith gets to practice and sit around for a couple of years and learn from a master.

Long short, if Warner comes in I don’t see the point of drafting a QB. Better a RT or a pass rusher.

by Bob On The Coast on Mar 2, 2009 12:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I feel the same.

As I said somewhere else, it’s unlikely Warner is going to sign, but the 49ers may actually want to put Smith into the third-string role for a year or two to give him the chance to ease back in.

Then again, if a deal with Warner actually DOES go through, I believe Smith’s agent will want him to go looking elsewhere to find an opportunity to compete for at least a second-string spot.

by sfgfan on Mar 2, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You guys have me warming up to the Warner idea

And while Shaun Hill is a guy I want to see succeed, signing Warner and having Alex Smith play back up for one to two seasons would be beneficial in the long run. If we could keep all three guys we’d have pretty good depth at the QB position (I feel we have decent depth with Hill starting and Smith on the pine).

However, if we cannot keep all three (if we sign Warner), which would you rather the team keep, Hill or Smith? I prefer Hill, because he’s a gamer, but Smith’s age and potential still remain untapped (apparently). It’d be a tough decision, and I think the team would have to trade whomever they could get more for.

by Andrew Davidson on Mar 2, 2009 12:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Who would I prefer?

I would prefer the team keep Smith, but that’s only because I’m partial to him and feel he can still realize his potential. I understand not a lot of people see him this way, and I totally understand that, too.

With that said, if the 49ers had to choose, I think they would go with Hill. Hill’s under contract for two more seasons at a cheap rate, and he’s shown he can start in a pinch. Smith, on the other hand, is already on the verge of being cut because of his salary cap figure (if they don’t restructure his deal), so his agent could just push for a release and the 49ers would probably do it (if they already have Warner under contract.

by sfgfan on Mar 2, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh yea.

And when I say “not a lot of people see him this way,” I mean probably 80% of the population have probably already given up on Smith, and I understand that and their reasonings for it.

by sfgfan on Mar 2, 2009 12:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll give up on Alex Smith when...

He has consistency at OC, and continues displaying the true signs of a “Bust”.

However, I can’t give up on him because he’s still very young and Nolan obviously had no idea how to run a team (and didn’t care to learn how to either). Singletary seems set on getting continuity in the offensive unit/coaching staff, and that makes sense. It’s also why the Jimmy Raye selection wasn’t viewed as sexy.

In other words, I’m in that 20% fraction with you, having not given up on a Alex Smith. I do like Shaun Hill, because he’s a gamer, and I do believe we are OK with these two at QB.

by Andrew Davidson on Mar 2, 2009 12:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If Warner signed

I’d be in favor of keep Smith, I think, as well because I’m thinking he’s got more upside than Hill. I view Hill as a stop gap, maybe a pretty good stop gap, but a stop gap none the less which is exactly what Warner would be, although a much more talented stop gap. But it would seem to be a lot easier for the Niners to keep Hill in lieu of Smith because of the contracts.

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Mar 2, 2009 12:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Even with Warner a young QB is almost a definite need.

Some one is going to have to take over when Warner leaves and a 31 year old Shaun Hill isn’t exactly an enticing option. Now I’m not saying a high pick (1st or 2nd round) needs to be spent on a QB but a QB needs to be drafted, either this year or next. Smith is still young enough that his potential could still be legit but you can’t rest the fate of the franchise on his shoulders, again.

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Mar 2, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Shoulders

I see what you did there.

by sfgfan on Mar 2, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Penn State Fan (Re: Maybin)

I’ve watched Maybin all year he might have come out early but can you blame him? He could possibly be a Top 5 pick.

This guy has heart and within a year became a vocal leader of the PSU defense.
He’s a playmaker that goes for the football when sacking the QB , If he starts his rookie year (which he should) Automatic crowning of DROY.

http://www.runboard.com/bsanfran49ers

by supraman on Mar 2, 2009 12:36 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

DROY

Way premature. Rookies that are drafted to “get after the QB” have notoriously failed at a substantial rate, and Maybin falls right into that category. If anything his size, or lack thereof, should be a serious red flag for most teams, especially those in the top 15.

by sfgfan on Mar 2, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The 2009 season prove Maybin’s greatness

http://www.runboard.com/bsanfran49ers

by supraman on Mar 2, 2009 2:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Crabtree

With Seattle’s reported immenant signing of TJ Houshmandzadeh you can probably scratch Seattle as a potential suitor for Crabtree.

If Seattle is out of the running it’s highly likely that Crabtree will end up in the Bay Area either with the Raiders or Niners.

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Mar 2, 2009 3:08 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Your wish/hunch/whateveryoucallit...

… seems to be getting closer and closer to becoming true (Re: Crabtree to the Raiders).

by sfgfan on Mar 2, 2009 3:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Just watch

Seattle take Sanchez.

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Mar 2, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Seattle drafts

the best OT on the board, Walter isn’t ageless.

If they’re wanting to draft a guy instead of resign Willis, why should we go after Willis? We have a good spot in the draft to be taking OT, and I’m talking 2nd round (there’ll be some natural RTs available there), because baby, we are taking Crabtree at 10.

Let me sleep, don’t wake me.

by Andrew Davidson on Mar 2, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Stafford vs. Florida

What I find remarkable about that video of Stafford (posted above) is how SLOW the Florida defenders look—and yet Stafford still threw the 3 picks. At least two of them (picks 2 and 3) look like Stafford simply trusting his arm to get the ball into a small spot. Granted the second one was just a phenomenal play by the linebacker, but you’ve gotta figure that an NFL linebacker will make that kind of play and you’ll have even more of that kind of disguised coverage in the NFL. Thus for me the bust-o-meter goes up after seeing that video.

Throwback unis? Yes. Throwback afros? YES!

by grantmp on Mar 3, 2009 9:27 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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