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Grading the 49ers offseason to date

Now that I'm back from Vegas, I thought a nice way to ease back into the swing of things would be to take a look back at the 49ers offseason so far.  With the 49ers signing Marvel Smith and releasing Jonas Jennings over the weekend, we've probably reached the end of major free agency.  I'd imagine we might see some smaller moves or possibly a Takeo Spikes-type move, but not much more.

With that in mind, now seemed as good a time as any to assess what the team has done.  While the team has definitely been busy this offseason, I would argue that it's rather difficult to completely assess it.  The last two offseasons, you could quickly point to the biggest signing: Justin Smith ('08) and Nate Clements ('09 '07).  This year, I bet I could five people and get five answers.

Having no clear-cut #1 signing also means any grade we give right now is probably subject to change.  All things considered, I'd probably give the team a grade in the low B/high C range, with the potential for a swing up to high B, or down to a possible D.  The draft will certainly affect things, but just looking at this free agent class, I'm cautiously optimistic.  The team was not super aggressive with big free agents, but did identify certain holes and moved to fill them.

The 49ers have added or re-signed Marvel Smith, Demetric Evans, Damon Huard, Brandon Jones, Moran Norris, Allen Rossum and Takeo Spikes.  Certainly not an overwhelming list, but an interesting list nonetheless.  There's not a homerun type of signing (at first glance), but rather they had certainly holes to fill and they filled them.

Marvel Smith: If Smith can stay healthy, I would argue this becomes the best signing of the offseason.  At ESPN, Scouts Inc gives numerical grades (1-100) and Marvel actually ties Joe Staley for 4th with a rating of 76 (Gore: 78, Clements: 81, Willis: 90).  It's not a really loooong term solution, but if he provides an answer at right tackle for the next two seasons, the signing is a success.

Of course the injury history is the sticking point.  He passed his physical (we assume), so that's a good first step.  But like the signings below, we'll really need to see what happens going forward.  You could argue any signing requires a little wait and see.  However, I think that in the case of something like the Justin Smith signing, you know more or less what you're getting and any crazy results (injury, awful play) are wild exceptions to the norm.  In the case of Smith, we might just assume injury is likely and anything else is a win.  Thoughts?

Brandon Jones: Jones personifies this free agent group.  I see some upside, I see some downside, but it's difficult to judge yet.  Jones has a world of talent, but has never come close to fully tapping that potential.  If he hits big it would be huge for the team.  If he struggles it wouldn't be shocking, but it wouldn't decimate the team, financially or otherwise.

I'd like to think Brandon Jones will have a big year, but it would not even be an educated guess.  I could see a solid 60+ catch season, or he could be benched by midseason.  He's entering his fifth year and improved his numbers last season.  Let's hope it's the first of many years of improvement.

Moran Norris: We actually do know more or less what we're getting from Norris.  He's a blocking back brought in for Frank Gore.  He turns 31 in June, but fullbacks actually can age pretty well.  One could throw out the saying that you can't teach an old dog new tricks, but in this case, we're getting exactly what we need.  One interesting thing to keep an eye on is that if Frank Gore does boost his numbers, how much is due to having Norris and how much is due to potential improvement on the offensive line.

After the jump, we take a look at Demetric Evans, Damon Huard, and the re-signings of Takeo Spikes and Allen Rossum.

Star-divide

Demetric Evans: This signing doesn't confuse me, so much as it is rather hard to assess.  He could end up just being a depth guy, although he'll get an opportunity to win a starting job in camp.  Given the scouting report on Evans I go in with limited excitement, but maybe he'll surprise me.  Does anybody expect big things from Evans, or are most people expecting some return but nothing spectacular?

Damon Huard: Singletary has made it clear he's the #3 QB at this point.  That's certainly not shocking.  It's always useful to have a veteran QB in camp and Huard qualifies as this.  I realize many people were a bit annoyed with this signing, but given the context, it's a harmless move.  Yes a guy like Leftwich (among others) is out there, but in looking to fill the #3 QB role, this makes sense.

Takeo Spikes/Allen Rossum: These are re-signings, but they could prove as important as anybody else.  If Spikes can maintain last year's level of play, the linebacker corp will be in good shape.  If Rossum could just stay healthy, he'll have the 49ers in excellent field position all season long.  Although you always like to develop younger talent, for the here and now I don't know anybody disappointed with these signings.

As I said before, no clear home-run signing gums up the works a little bit.  In the case of these signings, there is a decent bit of upside, but there isn't a whole lot of downside, aside from missing out on other folks.  You lose out some money, but none is a cap-killer.  It's not the most aggressive approach, but maybe this is the right kind of approach.

Poll
Which new 49er will have the biggest (positive) impact?
Marvel Smith
1170 votes
Demetric Evans
94 votes
Brandon Jones
277 votes
Damon Huard
25 votes
Moran Norris
507 votes

2073 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments |

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Comments

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List is not bad...

the list of players that the niners went out and got is a low-downside, high-upside type of list and in the NFL you can call that solid. What I mean is that if they play as expected, then they will be fine compared to what we have, and if they play above-expectation then that will be fantastic.

In corporate america the term is “UPOD”…under-promise and over-deliver, and I think these signings add to the quality of the team without raising expectations in the way that major free-agent signings can do.

I think this is a quality off-season so far. Let’s just not screw up the draft by taking a QB first……….

by jviet on Mar 30, 2009 11:39 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

The free agency signings will largely be impossible to judge until we see what/who we draft and how it all fits together in our medium-long term development.

I’m very optimistic. I think the whole management team is really on the same page. I think we’ll emerge from the draft with needed additions and depth, in particular some help at DB/S, OT, OLB, RB (x2? – 3rd down pounder and change of pace/screen guy?), WR/OG/FB/TE as available.

by Neon on Mar 30, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Moran Norris

I think that Gore is going to need a bit more help this season than in seasons past to keep his numbers as high as they have been (or could have been, if injury free). Norris will become vital, since losing him would leave us with a big hole, and leave Gore more vounerable to those big, strong, mean NFL linebackers.

Blind devotion.

by ProfessorBigelow on Mar 30, 2009 12:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

yup

he’s important, the stats just won’t show it.

MURS for President!!!!!!!

by jtoj on Mar 30, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Which is why I voted for Norris in the poll above. If Smith plays all season, then he will definitely be the big signing but its a big IF. Don’t like the signing of Brandon Jones – when you look at what Fooch says about him above, well we already had a WR like that on the roster in Bryant Johnson. I think we should have just resigned him. To me, if you replace a player at any position then he has to be a significant improvement on the player being replaced, and I just don’t see that here.
Agree with Fooch about Huard as long as he stays a #3 QB. Evans is a wait-and-see signing.

by Ninerfromacrossthepond on Mar 30, 2009 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

well......

Maybe the difference between Bryant Johnson and Brandon Jones is the $$$ but overall I like the Brandon Jones pickup. His previous coach had nothing but good things to say about him and his work ethic is supposedly awesome which fits right in with coaches startegy(not that bryants wasn’t cuz I was def a fan of Bryant)
I also like the signing of Evans because not only does it add depth, he was a solid player with the skins and in my eyes is a starter but thats not up to me to decide.
I totally agree with the Huard feedback although I would like him to be in the picture of competition just to put some fire on the asses of HILL ANS SMITH!! most of all his presence as a veteran should provide good advice and mentoring.
All the signings are wait-and-see so I guess that’s what we’ll do

by 49ers4lyfe on Mar 31, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unlike what seems to be most people's opinons around here

I like the Niners’ offseason moves. They provide quality depth, weren’t too costly, and if we’re lucky we’ll have 4 new starters from the 5 people signed. Huard could also be the best #3 QB in the league. There aren’t many #3 QBs that have also been successful as starters in the last few years. These aren’t flashy guys but they also aren’t burn the bank guys and they can be easily replaced if they fall through. If I had to guess I’d say

Marvel Smith doesn’t play a full season but gets 10-12 good games in.

Brandon Jones turns out to be similar to what Bryant Johnson was last year, maybe a little less consistent, but a couple more big plays, winds up at 3rd WR.

Demetric Evans won’t be a 3 down lineman and the niners opt to go with more of a DL rotation but he has a solid, if unspectacular season.

Damon Huard doesn’t see the field but is a good practice and locker room guy.

Moran Norris provides the biggest boost and he and Gore have a great backfield season behind an improved line. Gore gets nicked up too much to put up very gaudy numbers plus he’ll split time with a rookie, but Norris will go to the pro bowl (or should but will get out voted by some guy with name recognition on a flashier team).

by foosball4949 on Mar 30, 2009 12:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes!

I think Evans may surprise us and play well. With Smith (RE), Sopoaga (NT) and Evans (LE) as our starters I think our line can let those 4 LBs run around and make plays.

I hope that our offense can benefit with the addition of Norris and Huard. Huard in particular since he has more experience (appeared in 64 games) than Hill (13) and Smith (32) combined.

Joe and Steve were under the same system for years... don't expect Smith to be super so soon.

by bayboy on Mar 30, 2009 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What do you mean unlike everyone else?

You wrote exactly what everyone else has been saying in their post, including the article itself.

by jonesin25 on Mar 31, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we've done well

there weren’t a lot of sure-thing, big name free agents out there that fit well into our scheme. We filled holes the right way. I would say with the restructured Smith deal, adding Marvel, extending Takeo, and bringing back Norris, we’ve done pretty well.

Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis

by wjackalope on Mar 30, 2009 12:35 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

B.J.

I think if Brandon Jones makes a contribution, it’ll be a big one.

by Hella Niners on Mar 30, 2009 1:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm....

Hey, Fooch. Nate Clements ’09?

"The voice of the intellect is a soft one, but it does not rest until it has gained a hearing"

by Jeff_Fuller_49 on Mar 30, 2009 3:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

free agency

what are the 49er doing trying to go for all becaude the way there draft players is to win it all …..

by niner4ever on Mar 30, 2009 6:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

B J

yes definely i belive tha jonson will bring on a good determination and alot sperience to new guys and the team go bles the niners

by niner4ever on Mar 30, 2009 6:45 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Marvel Smith, Moran Norris

Marvel Smith could pay out huge and the team has such a low risk its great. Maraathe and McCloughan really did a good one here. If Smith starts 14 games in 2009, Frank Gore will rush for atleast 1500 yards, because with Moran Norris plowing ahead, there will be some gaping holes. Norris is made of iron, and cannot sustain injury, so he’ll be in atleast 14 games guarONteed. In 2006, he played in 14 games and can someone remember how many rushing yards Frank had that season?

(1695)

by Andrew Davidson on Mar 30, 2009 8:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think it was a smart free agency. We needed Norris and Smith. Jones is either going to be great or be like a Arnaz Battle (not saying that battle isn’t good). Smith will be great when he plays and hopefully can mentor some of the other OTs. Hopefully Evans is good but he is cheap so it is low risk. I’m really excited about Moran Norris. I personally like a run first offense so having a good fb especially one that has been successful with our team. Im really excited for next year!

by iaalexeeff on Mar 30, 2009 9:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Why it's hard to judge

Since Singletary is a new coach and this will be the first full season overseeing everything it’s hard to know how all the parts will fit. We’ve got an idea of what he wants to do with the offense, but just an idea. How many offensive coordinators have had teams that were known for their defenses? If Singletary’s offense is built around the run but can successfully hit quick and deep (maybe with a good rookie deep threat and the ball thrown by A. Smith), then for all the world it will look as an offensive juggernaut. But is he that much different from what he was last year?

If Evans and Smith perform adequately, giving the linebackers a chance to make mischief, and if Lawson is finally back from his knee injury and can be a pass rusher we all hoped he would be, how does the Niner defense get characterized. Even if you blitz just a little more than last year, but the pieces on defense work better and you’re a lot more successful, then you’re characterized as a gutsy, risk-taking defense instead of that bend-but-don’t break hybrid that Nolan put out on the field last year.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that Singletary has a vision for the team, and we don’t know exactly what that vision is. We don’t know if the free agents he selected are brilliant for his scheme or he picked the wrong guys, how they fit in with who’s going to be drafted, etc. More than any other sport football is a team sport and how one player changes the team’s fortunes is harder to measure.

I point back to Bay Area writers who presumed when Singletary fired Martz that the team would never throw another pass during his tenure. How silly is that? I think that while none of the free agents have been headline grabbers, they all are filling points of weakness. It’s very easy to overspend during free agency and most teams (certainly the Niners) aren’t one player away from the Super Bowl.

B to B+.

by Bob On The Coast on Mar 31, 2009 7:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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