By now you've probably got an idea of who you'd like the 49ers to draft in two weeks. And you can bet the 49ers have their draft board pretty well pegged. It's time to go shopping. Don't like where you sit? No worries, the NFL Draft is a veritable flee market. One man's trash is another man's treasure. Let the games begin.
Here's a link to the full 2009 draft order. Below is a list of the 49ers pick with values in parenthesis. Those values are determined by the trade value chart made famous by Jimmy Johnson. It must be stated that this chart isn't a rule, but merely a tool. But the chart tends to be pretty accurate. For example, in 2008 the Saints traded #10 (1300 points) and #78 (200) to move up to the Patriots #7 (1500) plus a 6th round throw-in at #164 (26.8). So, that's pretty darn close at 1500 for 1527 points. Later in the 1st round the Jaguars moved up to grab Derrick Harvey with the Ravens at pick #8 (1400) using their 1st #26 (700), two 3rds #71 (235), 89 (145) and a 4th #125 (47). That looks like a deal for Jacksonville, spending a total of 1127. The Ravens then moved back up with #26 (700) and #89 (145) to #18 (900) to draft Joe Flacco. Again, a slight edge in points goes to the team moving up, but somewhat close.
|Round||pick #||point value|
*Compensatory picks cannot be traded.
So you want to move up, do you? If you're looking at the top 3, that's gonna cost you a future 1st rounder along with #10 and maybe more if you're trying to get up to #2 or #1. When you add in the cost of signing a top pick, the idea gets even uglier. Picks # 10 and #43 add up to 1770, which gets you pretty close to the value of #4 at 1800. Depending on how the board falls, Seattle might be willing to play ball--but who would be the target there? I don't a match. If you want to dangle a 3rd rounder, you might be able to get up to #6 or #7, but again, for who?
The idea of trading down in the 1st round tends to be a more popular idea amongst 49ers fans (and fans of most other teams). San Francisco would obviously have to find a partner who wants to dance. Denver just traded Pro-Bowler Jay Cutler and could certainly be in the mix for a QB, but I just don't see the Broncos as a match. Think about it, if you're Denver and a player like Mark Sanchez falls to Jacksonville at #8, why wouldn't they deal with them at #8 or Green Bay at #9? It wouldn't take much more, if any, to move up to #9 rather than #10. And SF is one of the teams Denver would actually want to get in front of to take Sanchez. If the 49ers are on the clock and Sanchez/Freeman is still available and McSing is willing to deal, then you know they aren't into that player enough to draft him, so why make a deal if he's not likely to be picked before #12? The only way they do business with San Francisco is if they believe another team is ready to strike a deal for #10 and Denver feels like they need to block it.
I'll dive into more trade scenarios after the jump. How does two 1st rounders sound?
The more likely partners are those teams trailing Denver who almost HAVE to move in front of them to ensure their QB of choice. Those teams appear to be Washington at #13, New York Jets at #17 and Tampa Bay at #19. For Washington to move up it would cost them their 3rd (190) along with #13 (1150). New York would have to give up a little more. The Jets at #17 (950) plus their 2nd rounder at #52 (380) would put them just over 1300 points. SF might have to give them back a late round pick in that scenario or settle for a 3rd. With Tampa Bay things get dicey, because they lack a 2nd round pick in 2009. The Bucs don't have enough ammo to get up to #10 without throwing in a future 1st. And if they are willing to play ball, as with the other teams listed, Green Bay would probably have to decline first. It's not a good bet that Ted Thompson, Green Bay Packers GM, would pass on a good deal due to his willingness to trade down in the past and their need to add multiple players who fit their new 3-4 scheme.
One good thing about the Packers possibly trading down from #9 with a team looking for a QB, is that means they didn't steal a Brian Orakpo, B.J. Raji or Everette Brown away from the 49ers. If Jacksonville moves down from #8, maybe Michael Crabtree finds his way to the city.
Of course, Philidelphia has two 1st rounders, but I don't know who they'd be targeting in a trade up to #10. And I don't really like the idea of moving out of the top 20, either. This team need impact players, not just more bodies.
McCloughan hasn't shown a tendency to move down in the draft, but he has shown the willingness to go up and get a guy that he really likes. He's done it three times in the last four years. In 2005, McCloughan traded back into the bottom of round 3 to select OT Adam Snyder. In 2006 and 2007 he pulled the trigger on deals to get back into the 1st round, targeting OLB Manny Lawson and OT Joe Staley, respectively.
So, who is worth a trade up? If the Niners end up with an offensive player at #10, like Oher, Smith or Crabtree, then a pass rushing OLB makes sense. Don't expect one of the really good players to fall to #43. Clint Sintim may be there, but names like Everette Brown, Rey Maualuga (darkhorse rush LB), Aaron Maybin, Connor Barwin and Larry English will probably not. There is a gauntlet teams running the 3-4 scheme in the late 1st to early 2nd round. Starting at New England's #23 pick, you have to hope one of these guys makes it past them, Miami, Baltimore, Arizona, Pittburgh, New England(again), Cleveland, Green Bay. And that's not counting the teams who like these prospects as 4-3 DE or LB. Minnesota's 22nd pick would be a logical target in that scenario. Ironically it was the 22nd pick that San Francisco got from Denver in 2006 to draft Lawson. That year they gave up 2nd (#37) and 3rd (#68) rounders. If there was a trade down from #10, then a move back up would be that much easier with the extra picks.
Allow me to rosterbate for a moment... Imagine a scenario where Michael Crabtree falls to #10. Then our beloved Scarlet and Gold are able to swing a deal to get back up and snag a falling Brown, Maybin, Barwin or English later in the round. I, for one, would have no problem giving up a future 1st to land a Crabtree/Brown tandem. Maybe a defender is taken at #10 and Andre Smith takes a long tumble. Just saying ... it's worth at least exploring potential draft day scenarios, however unlikely. You can be assured Scot McCloughan and the gang are doing their homework on what kind of craziness could ensue.