Small Sample Size Alert: Shaun Hill vs. Jay Cutler

3:17 Update: NFL.com is reporting a better deal for the Broncos: They give up Cutler and their 5th round pick.  They get Orton, the 2009/2010 firsts and 2009 3rd.  Not too shabby.  Definitely glad the 49ers didn't give up that much.

2:38 Update: The Broncos get Kyle Orton and a 2009 and 2010 first round pick.  With Cutler they give up a 2009 3rd round pick.

FOOCH'S NOTE 2:30PM: Well, this post was made useless pretty quickly.  I found a link confirming montereyjosh's comment that the Bears acquired Cutler.  It solves the Bears QB issues, although they still need some help at wide receiver (Hester isn't the be all-end all).  Barring some dramatic change this will thankfully end the Cutler drama.
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Over in the Golden Nuggets, Bob on the Coast posted a comment from a Tim Kawakami's blog, posted by a guy named Scott.  It included several stats that I've placed in a table below.  The TD/Int includes TDs per interception.  Also, one of the stats listed was incorrect so I've adjusted it.

Stat Hill Cutler
Comp % 62.8% 62.3%
TD/Int 13/8 (1.625) 25/18 (1.38)
1st down/attempt 2.9 2.8
% comp over 20 yds 14.9% 14.3%
Sacks 23 in 8 g 11
Yards/attempt 7.1 7.3
Rating 87.5 86
Winning % as starter .625 .436.500


I chcked the rest of the stats and they appear correct.  So I was curious what people think when seeing these numbers.  A person can make statistics appear any way they want so that has to be kept in mind.  Additionally, one has to consider the talent around the two players being considered.  There is also the Mike Martz issue, which affects sacks, and probably passes over 20 yards.  And, of course, there's the ever popular "small sample size" dilemma.

So, given all that, any thoughts on this?  One person indicated the Broncos had less talent around Cutler, but my eyeball test tells me I'm not sure I buy that argument.  At the same time I need to do a little more research before giving a solid answer. 

I know we've got the Jay Cutler thread, but I thought this was worth pulling out separately.  The 49ers have been quiet in the Jay Cutler sweepstakes so this may all be moot.  However, I want to see what folks have to say about the stats that are presented here.

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