We cannot afford a bust in rounds 1 or 2.
So the question is -- who is a solid pick in round one outside the top 3 or 4 non-QB picks which won't be there for us? And who will be there at 10 that's the highest reward, least risk?
We would all love to trade down for an extra 2nd round pick but I don't see that happeneing. If Sanchez i still there at 9, which I doubt he will be, Green Bay will trade down before we can. So let's assume we're stuck with the 10th pick:
A Smith OL: He could end up being a Bubba Paris, or even worse. Or he could be devastatingly good. But again the risks are high as are the rewards. Bottom line, I don't think if he's sitting there at 10 that we can afford to take the chance.
Maybin: I love the upside with this kid. But he could be too small and too one dimensional. I would love to see a great pass rusher but picking him at 10 is just too risky.
Orakpo: If he's there at 10, injuries and a weak lower body are the risk here. I guess anyone can get injured or not, but he has a history of them. I'm shying away.
Raji: If he's there, is he all that much better than the crowded field we already have, including Balmer who we drafter in round 1 last year? Why pay this guy first round money to compete with Franklin and Balmer. Not much financial sense to that.
Crabtree: Not sure we can afford to draft a WR in round 1 with all the other needs we have. He may be great. But then again, Morgan and Hill could be great. So we pay Crabs a lot of money, push him ahead of the others who then have to sit around instead of getting playing time. Is that worth the risk?
Oher: He is a reach at 10. If he's the BPA at that point, then this is the weakest first round draft in history (which it may turn out to be)! .Again, can we afford to have a number 1 pick drafted for a supposed need and then have him sit behind the starters? He's not better than Marvel Smith. And if Smith gets injured we have options. Rachel could move to RT. Then we plug in a guard. Is that the best line on earth? No. But not the weakest part of the team either. That would be our lack of pass rush and the defense on 3rd down because we haven't got enough push on the QB.
E Brown: Looks like one of the best pure rushers in the draft. And he could be there at 10. He needs to learn to cover, but really we'd be using him to get after people, especially on 3rd downs. So I am not all that concerned. Plus, he's a good character guy, and smart. He may learn to cover. He has the physical skills, and he's teachable.
Jenkins: If CB doesn't work out he could make it a a safety. The only question here is he doesn't match our top need -- a pass rusher. To me that's the key in this draft for us. Not saying we couldn't get one in round 2: Barwin, Cody Brown, might be there. And what if Walt Harris is done physically? Jenkins could be a quick replacement. So even though it doesn't address the pass rush angle, or OL for those of you hung up on needing another rookie back up on the Oline, we could address PRush in round 2. HOWEVER, by not taking a PR in round 1, we may miss out on taking Shon Green as our RB in round 2. Just a thought. It's all a game od chess anyway.
Want to play the risk reward game with me?
Who would be your risks and your rewards -- let's talk only about players that could be there at the 10th spot, since that seems trading down is not likely. It would be helpful to list reasons along with your picks!