1. DET – QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia
2. STL – OT Jason Smith, Baylor
3. KC – OT Eugene Monroe, Virginia
4. SEA – OLB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
5. CLE – DT B.J. Raji, Boston College
6. CIN – OT Andre Smith, Alabama
7. OAK – WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri
8. NYJ – QB Mark Sanchez, USC
9. GB – DE/OLB Brian Orakpo, Texas
10. SF – WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech

Very similar to mine, but I don’t see Mangini passing up Raji at #5. I’ve gone back and forth on that pick between Crabtree and Raji, so either could happen. If Crabtree goes at 5, then Raji goes to Cinci, Jacksonville, or Green Bay meaning Orakpo likely slips to #10.

I have faith in Oakland taking Maclin over Crabtree due to JaMarcus Russell’s huge arm. I also don’t think Sanchez makes it beyond #9 in a trade with either the Jets or Redskins.

The “swing” picks in this year’s draft seem to be KC at #3 (Monroe, Curry, or Orakpo) and CLE at #5 (Raji, Crabtree, or Orakpo).

The 49ers are likely going to be left with Orakpo, Crabtree, Maclin, or Jenkins as the BPA.

I’d rather have Jenkins, or Orakpo if he’s available.

I also don’t see why we’d pass on Everette Brown if neither of those guys are available. Stiff in space? Brown? Don’t you love how these media scouts draw quick conclusions jump on things? Have they ever coached the kid? He’s supposed to be a good kid and a quick learner. . . The guy is also a monster run stopper and one of the best pass rushers in the draft. He can learn to drop back with his speed. He can learn to shed blockers and mix up his moves. It’s not like he’s been in the league for 5 years. He’s going to develop.

So, enough said. My mock is:

1. Lions – Matthew Stafford, QB
2. Rams – Jason Smith, OT
3. Chiefs – Aaron Curry OLB
4. Seahawks – Sanchez QB! (New coach, old QB, gotta have “the future” in place, it’’ll make a splash with the fans in the post-Holmgren era, and they play west coast offense.) Call me crazy.
5. Browns – Eugene Monroe OL
6. Bengals – Andre Smith, OT (Adding yet another fine character to the team.)
7. Raiders – Jeremy Maclin, WR (Are they nutty enough to take him over Crabtree? Or who knows, maybe they take a kicker.)
8. Jaguars – Michael Crabtree (nice compliment to Holt)
9. Packers – Brian Orakpo DE/OLB (Deadly good move for them)
10. 49ers – Michael Jenkins CB (Leaving Raji and Oher for others)

Surprised?

I think this is the way the 49ers may go because with Orakpo off the board, they are already swamped with interior linemen. Raji just makes things more crowded, more complicated, and doesn’t fill a glaring need as a first rounder. Filling the most glaring need would be to select Everette Brown here. And they very well might.

They have so many OLinemen at the moment with the signing of Marvel Smith that taking one in the first round and paying him big bucks like they just paid Smith makes no sense. By the way, Smith is not Jennings. Jennings was injured all over his body. Smith had a bad back that’s now fine. I know there’s a chance of a recurrence, but come on, if we hadn’t been burned by Jennings wouldn’t you give him a shot at staying healthy? I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt and not playing the “Just like Jennings” card.

Why Jenkins? They lost Strickland. Harris is old and didn’t play all that great last year. Spencer is injury prone. Reggie has to try to make it at safety. Tarrel Brown is a nice player but not nec a future shut down starter. More like Strickland’s replaement. And importantly, this is a very very thin CB class. I don’t see 2nd or 3rd round CBs that are really solid picks, do you? Can anyone throw out a name or two for later rounds? I don’t see any. . . . So I think Jenkins is a good solid pick with less risk than an Everette Brown — who although I DO think he can transition to OLB, isn’t a guarantee there. And more importantly, there ARE really exciting pass rushers in round 2.

The Jenkins pick will be idiotic if they don’t then pick Cody Brown or Barwin in round 2 for the pass rush.

Round three: RB or Safety. If we pick the RB here, maybe we can pick up safety McBath in round 4.

That would be a very good, safe, strong, draft in my opinion.

PS: ………

Nose tackle: Franklin is good enough if Balmer can’t transition there. And there could be some projects later in the draft if the coaches feel they need another guy there: A Sammy Hill type maybe late? So no Raji. We’d leave too many holes to fill in rounds 2-4.

WR: Hey, we need to give Morgan and Hill playing time if they are going to develop behind Bruce. . . . .Maybe a slot guy in round 5 like Butler from Penn if he’s still there. . .

That’s mine. . . .

What I really think will happen with the top 10 picks is that either the Redskins or Bucs will make a move with the Jags or 9ers to get Sanchez, but if that doesn’t happen here’s a no-trade mock:

1. Lions – Matt Stafford QB – attempting to emulate Atlanta but it won’t work – Stafford is no Matt Ryan and could very well be another Alex Smith.
2. Rams – Eugene Monroe OT – a better pass blocker than J. Smith to take O. Pace’s spot.
3. Chiefs – A. Curry LB – GM Pioli will take BPA, especially if he’s a LB and they can’t trade down.
4. Seahawks – M. Crabtree WR – they’re looking to win this year with a little help from the draft.
5. Browns – Brian Orakpo DE/OLB – WR B. Edwards is staying put and they need a pass rush desperately.
6. Bengals – Justin Smith OT – the Bungles OL needs 2 OTs and a C.
7. Raiders – Michael Johnson DE – Crazy Al loves his freakish athleticism, and it’s Johnson’s turn this year.
8. Jaguars – B.J. Raji – unless they trade, Raji plugs a big hole in the middle of the DL.
9. Packers – M. Oher OT – with Raji gone, they settle for a LT.
10. 49ers – A. Smith OT – solidifies the OL for 6-10 years.

this looks bad if the niners do this, #1, why for Andre Smith? Michael Oher? but maybe Eugene Monroe, Mark Sanchez or Michael Crabtree, yes because they do need an offensive lineman to move Joe Staley to the right side, Sanchez to be the future franchise QB if Shaun Hill will leave after contract and Sanchez will battle Alex Smith, or Crabtree, the most complete WR in the draft that compares to me, Calvin Johnson, huge and very talented.