Macro Lessons from the Draft
by bignerd on Apr 30, 2009 12:08 AM PDT
Email
PrintI'd like to touch on a few of the big picture revelations that were exposed in the draft. We've already feverously debated draft the picks, players, strategies and expections. Consider this article the Lewis Black News that Slipped Through the Cracks segment of the 2009 NFL draft.
Scott McCloughan drafts for BPA
He said his philosophy is to draft the best player available regardless of need. Certainly proved to be true on draft day. Michael Crabtree WR (BPA) over Michael Oher OT (Need), 1st Round 2010 pick (BPA) over 2nd Round 2009 pick (Need), Glenn Coffee RB (BPA to Scotty) over Big or Speedy compliment RB (Need), Nate Davis QB (BPA) over any OLB, OT (major need). Yep, the man wasn't lying. For the teams sake lets hope next years draft aligns BPA with Need.
Jimmy Johnson's Draft Chart is Broken
The Jets barely gave up anything to get Cleveland out of the #5 pick. Swap of 1st round picks (#5 exchanged for #17), a 2nd round pick and 3 players the Jets were not going to play. Even sadder, the Browns traded back two times in the 1st round only to obtain two 6th round picks for the effort. Than again maybe the Browns are just stupid. The Patriots received substantially more for trading out of later picks.
Mike Nolan is being Setup as the Fall Guy in Denver
Poor Mike Nolan, desperate for a job he unknowingly hitched his wagon to the biggest con-artist in the NFL, Josh McDaniels. Before McDaniels decided to trade his best player and franchise QB in Jay Culter, all Nolan had to due was make a miniscule improvement to the Denver's defense in order to get that team on the winning track. With Culter gone, Nolan has to improve that defense dramatically for Denver to be even competitive. With 8 major holes on the Broncos defense what does McDaniels give Nolan for his 3-4 defense? Robert Ayers a 4-3 DE and a rookie 2nd round CB opposite of Champ Bailey. For the kid's mental sake lets hope he is the backup this year. Slick Rick McDaniels in an early move to keep his own job past 2009 uses the top pick on RB Knowshon Moreno. When Denver gets crushed this season McDaniels will tout his increased production at RB to save his own ass while happily feeding Nolan and his outmatched defense to the angry, blood thirsty mob.
Chicks dig Wolverine
For the females of the house the NFL Draft coverage might as well be a blank, white screen with no sound. The Wolvernie Origins trailer plays and it takes a crowbar to peel them away from television. I'm guessing his mutant power is pheromones.
Everyone can now predict a Raider Draft
Only two guys before the draft predicted the Raiders would draft Darrius Heyward-Bey in favor of Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin. The rest of us knew better but didn't think they were crazy enough to do it. For now on every football fan on the planet will be able to construct the Raiders draft board. We should appreciate the simplicty of Al Davis's process.
Two steps:
1. Download all the draft prospects from NFL.com and load into Excel.
2. Sort players by 40 yard time. Waala!
Attention High School Football Players hoping to play on Sundays! Do not accept any letter from a team that runs the Spread Offense!
I'm sure this wont' be popular in Lubbock either but it must be said. NFL teams don't like players who played college in the spread offense! You can be an NFL level talent, put up gawdy college numbers and be the star of ESPN's College Game Day and pro scouts will still look at you sideways. An also-had talent like USC Patrick Turner playing in a Pro style offense gets selected in the 4th round while productive Quan Cosby in Texas Tech's spread goes undrafted. Furthermore NFL sized and armed Graham Harrell and Chase Daniel who were both seniors and Heisman canidates go undrafted while a junior, publicly decried as unprepared by his college coach Mark Sanchez is the darling of the draft. Even the Raiders gained consideration with critiques explaining that they choose Heyward-Bey because he came from a pro style offense.
Bottom line, scouts like to put on tape and evaluate what you can do. To them watching you play in a spread offense is like predicting your vertical leap on Earth from tape of you jumping on Mars. Rather than put their job on the line with a guess they will go with someone who can evaluate.
Attention High School Football Players hoping to play on Sundays! Find a college team that runs the 3-4 Defense!
Really, the math on this one is pretty simple. Roughly 30% of NFL teams are now running a 3-4 defense whereas the percentage of college teams running the 3-4 defense is nowhere near. Based on the same principal that NFL scouts like to watch and not guess, it appears the shortest route to the NFL stage is college production in a 3-4 defense. For example, Larry English - he knows the LB role in the 3-4 and can rush the QB. Boom! He is now 1st round draft pick $$$!
The requirements are simple: finish college weighing 260lbs+, ability to move in space, have pass rushability and use college for 3-4 defensive training. NFL teams will slit throats to draft you. Any uber-atheltic kid projected to be college DE/LB can meet this criteria. An absolute must for any kid considered to small to play the 4-3 DE at NFL level. If you need help finding a college who runs the 3-4 defense contact my friend Jeff Tedford. He guarantee's a top notch Division I football program with fantastic televison exposure with at least 5 major broadcast games each year (SEC opponent, USC, Oregon, Stanford, additional PAC-10 opponent and Bowl Game . . . and that's national, not just regional coverage!). Also any soon to be 300lb+ kid who aspires to make a NFL salary for 8 years for merely fighting and occupying blockers in the trenches . . . Thanks!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
35 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
A few things I disagree with
Michael Crabtree WR (BPA) over Michael Oher OT (Need)
The way I see it, Crabtree is likely going to be a starter this year and has a chance to be the best WR on the team, Oher would have been a back up to Smith this year most likely. We’re all worried about Smith’s injury but he could be healthy, that makes Crabtree the better player and one most likely to help this year. (If your willing to concede that he was BPA) Oher only fits a bigger need if Smith gets hurt so this is a toss up at best.
1st Round 2010 pick (BPA) over 2nd Round 2009 pick (Need)
Yea, this I agree with. How well we could have filled a need with a 2nd round pick has been debated enough but it definitely would have filled the need more than a pick next year.
Glenn Coffee RB (BPA to Scotty) over Big or Speedy compliment RB (Need)
Here’s where I completely disagree, drafting a worse RB just because he is Big or Speedy isn’t drafting for need, it’s just drafting stupidly. Now if you want to say Coffee wasn’t the best RB available that’s definitely arguable, and I would agree that back-up RB isn’t a big enough need to use a 3rd round pick on. But if your going to concede that Coffee was BPA and then say picking a different RB would have been a need pick? That makes zero sense.
Nate Davis QB (BPA) over any OLB, OT (major need)
Hmmm, is OLB, OT a bigger need than QB prospect for the future? Probably, but mainly because the Niners need the first two things immediately. But at the end of the 5th round your probably not going to find anybody who can help right away, so I wouldn’t call OLB or OT a much bigger need at that point.
by OkayJay81 on Apr 30, 2009 1:07 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Ok, again . . .
BPA
BPA
BPA
BPA
According to your description that is what he did and I said he did . . . so what is the disagreement? I don’t see an instance where he reached for need over BPA? Even if you think BPA matched a need he still selected the BPA.
The point I was trying to make
Is that I don’t think McCloughan completely ignores team needs like a lot of people have been saying. He may not have filled the needs that people were hoping but it looks to me like every pick save for Ricky Jean-Francois filled a need on this team. I look at the draft and think every pick except for the two 7th rounders has a spot on this roster and has a good chance of succeeding there.
Once you start taking worse players because they play position the team needs a little bit more, that’s when I think it is terrible drafting.
How is WR not a position of "need" on this team?
Bruce will be gone after this year. Morgan had 20 catches last year. Hill 30. There’s some reason to be optimistic about Morgan, but Hill seems destined not to be a starter on a healthy team.
I wonder if, in the 5th round, you would expect to find a tackle or a pass-rushing LB who you expected to contribute … ever. Those are positions which go high in the draft. Maybe you can pick up a safety or a TE with some confidence late, but not tackles or OLBs. And they would certainly not be a contributor this year.
QB of the future is the biggest need on this team.
WR as a position of need vs. WR as a position that's 'not set'
Look, if you can take a position where we’re not set (like WR—or rather, like any position other than Mike LB) and get a guy who looks, by all appearances, as the guy who will set it for you (like Crabtree), AND if there’s nobody on the board who would fill that role (i.e. setting that position on your team) why would you not make that pick? The scale of ‘need’ vs. ‘not-need’ is simply not adequate for describing why the Crabtree pick was made.
Hating on the Crabtree pick is like hating on the Niners for trading for Steve Young because they had Joe Montana at QB. In fact, it’s even more ludicrous than that because you can’t have 2 QB’s on the field at the same time—whereas you can have 5 wideouts out there at once.
In Singletary we trust.
If Oher...
… was the pick, he would get the immediate start, like Staley did. You don’t take a tackle in the first around and NOT start him at LEAST at RT.
Slight correction.
You don’t take a tackle in the top 10, and NOT start him at LEAST at RT.
+1
Good response, Diego. I agree with pretty much everything you said. And how Crabtree at WR is not a need is beyond me. It may not be the biggest need, but it’s a need nonetheless.
Will the draft bashing EVER end? Please, guys, PLEASE….give it a rest. It’s getting annoying REALLY fast.
Then again, I forget how many NFL GMs and draft experts post on NinersNation.
Draft Bashing?
Did you even read what I wrote?
What did I bash McCloughan for?
I pretty much just stated Scott picked each round based on BPA which is consistent with his stated philosophy. Where did I question his pick? The Need category was just to illustrate a contrast.
read what you wrote?
That would be too much for people who assume any lack of elation about the 49ers draft be taken as blasphemy. gasp
It’s ridiculous how many retorts to posts about the draft have no actual relation to the post they are quoting. Some people refuse to accept anything realistic about this draft… let them live in their world of pixie dust and magic fairies.
Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....
by youALREADYknow on Apr 30, 2009 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions
good summary btw
Denver has so many needs that they are going to be screwed moving into a 3-4 scheme. I think Alphonso Smith will be fine though, he’s an underrated cover corner. I thought he was the most NFL-ready CB in the draft but just didn’t have huge upside.
I think it will be interesting to see how college coaches adjust to the way the draft is selecting players. Eventually, top players will stop going to spread systems because of the way it impacts their draft status. If I’m a new coach taking over a program, the first thing I’d do is insert a West Coast offense and run a 3-4. There are only 10-15 teams that I know running a 3-4 defense and most of those schools aren’t getting 4-5 star prospects.
Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....
by youALREADYknow on Apr 30, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions
yeah dude
bignerd didn’t do any bashing in this piece. he just stated his observations about mccloughan, the browns, josh mcdaniels/mike nolan, the effect of hugh jackman on females, al davis’ draft philosophy, and college recruit choices. any post that can include these assorted topics is good in my book…
by gogoldenbears on Apr 30, 2009 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not just talking about the ONE post bignerd had....
apparently you guys have missed all the posts since the draft. I would cut and paste them all to prove a point, but I may actually need the next six hours of my life.
And please, don’t act like there hasn’t been CONSTANT bashing of McC, the draft, and his decisions. People will point and laugh at you if you do.
You're right about
Nolan as a fall guy. I’ve always been a quasi Chiefs fan since the Montana days and Derrick Thomas days, so I take a small amount of pleasure in the Broncos taking a step back. I don’t feel bad for Nolan, but it’s kind of a situation similar to GSW hoops- ie the disconnect between personel selections and what’s needed to play the game effectively.
Nolan
Everybody wants to blame everything on Nolan. Watch out. Raiders could get Mike Nolan for HC and do really bad and then not pay him for it. Even if it was their horrendous offense that lost them. Poor Mike Nolan.
In Shaun Hill will trust
haha
yeaah..uhh Mike were gonna go ahead and uhhh move your office down to the basement…oh and uh payroll fixed that glitch in the system
"I'll be honest with you, I love his music, I do, I'm a Michael Bolton fan. For my money, I don't know if it gets any better than when he sings "When a Man Loves a Woman"
Coffee BPA?
You think Glenn Coffee was the best player available at the Niner’s 3rd round pick? That’s a pretty far out assumption. He wasn’t even the best running back available, in the 3rd OR 4th round. And he wasn’t the BPA in the 3rd. So your theory about Scott is wrong, IMO. They wanted to plug in a back up RB and they forced it.
According to you.
As bignerd mentioned, Coffee was probably at the top of McCloughan’s board, which when it comes to actual picks, is all that really matters.
RE: He wasn’t even the best running back available, in the 3rd OR 4th round.
According to you. Unless you had access to Niners draft board you have no idea if he actually was what they considered the BPA or not. There isn’t a consensus BPA board that all team pick from.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Apr 30, 2009 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Hey, who knows
maybe it wasn’t, maybe it was a reach. Like you said we don’t have access to the 49ers Draft Board.
In (y)our opinion was Coffee the BPA? or even the BRBA?
I think the majority of us wouldn’t think so.
http://www.49ersboard.blogspot.com
No idea
I won’t act like I know enough about the that mid tier of RB to make any kind of educated decision on the matter.
Maybe the pick was a little forced and maybe after seeing how the draft played out they could have waited until the 5th to take a RB but maybe not. I see no reason to get hung up on this pick as it at least looks like a happy medium of BPA/Need. The trade with Carolina handcuffed the Niners in this draft a little but it should pay dividends next year.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on May 1, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
How do you know that?
You think they saw Coffee as the best player on their board in round 3 REGARDLESS OF NEED?
I think you’re dreaming. zzzzzzzzz……….
The theory is McC picked the BPA at that slot. Go look at who else got picked in the 3rd and 4th rounds after we picked Coffee!
Please
Any speculation of who is the better third and fourth rounder is just that, speculation. If McCloughan felt Coffee was the BPA at that pick, then it was his prerogative to pick him.
Basically, think of it this way: IF McCloughan was a reacher, which you’re implying he is, why didn’t he reach for an OLB or an OT, two more GLARING needs going into the draft? You just hate the pick, and everyone can see that. However, just like any of us, no one really knows who the better player was available, and more importantly, no one really knows who McCloughan felt was better.
Unless you know what his draft board looked like, it’s difficult to say he reached. However, considering that he does tend to go with BPA regardless of need, it’s easier to at least consider that maybe he felt Coffee was the BPA.
Basically, back to what I originally said: Coffee may not have been the BPA to you, but it’s possible it was McCloughan’s. You don’t have to like the pick to understand that.
Quan Cosby
Came from Texas, not Texas Tech. He didn’t get drafted because he’s a tiny mofo.
Still holding out hope that Ryan Anderson will capitulate and grant him that interview he's been asking for for months now.
Thanks I missed that
Texas still runs a version of the spread. At least it’s another fun and gun offense. He might be small mofo but he was productive. It’s debatable but I think scouts might have overlooked his size if he put up good numbers in prototypical pro offense.
He's also old
Relative to being a rookie.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on May 1, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Pretty good sumamry all in all
I think you’ve got a very good point about playing both spread (which I’ve heard before) and 3-4 (which I hadn’t thought about) in college. Who else runs the 3-4 in college? The only one I can think of is Al Groh at Virginia.
And one last thing – since when was WR not a position of need for the niners? maybe not as glaring as it was in past years but still…
With the addition of Marvel, no question.
Of course, Marvel isn’t a long-term solution. But in the NFL, I think having a player who can man a position at a high level for the next two years makes it much less of a position of need.
College 3-4
Playing in a 3-4 in college isn’t going to help anybody get drafted, less maybe a NT.
Don’t the Cal Bear run a 3-4? And didn’t Follett put up some pretty good numbers as an OLB in that 3-4 yet no 3-4 teams wanted anything to do with him because I think he’s on the smaller side of what NFL teams look for in a 3-4 OLB.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on May 1, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
One Example
Like you said he was a bit on the smaller side but hel was drafted. Will playing the 3-4 in college help your draft status? Ask Maybin, Orakpo and E. Brown who all fell out of the Top 10 because no team was going to risk that they could play in the 3-4. Wasn’t as if they weren’t big enough, athletic enough or productive enough.
Larry English was projected 2nd pick. Chargers jumped on at the #16th pick because they felt assured he could play in the 3-4 since that is what he excelled at in college. Really, this is a simple supply and demand issue.
Is the trade chart really broken?
It’s true Mangini completely blew his 1st round trades, but there were two other trades that indicate maybe the chart isn’t completely broken.
1. 9ers $43 & #111 for Panthers #1. I didn’t think it was a great trade based on the present value of future draft picks, but it’s in the range, depending on what happens with Carolina’s season.
2. Denver-Seattle trade – Seattle’s #37 this year straight over for Denver’s #1 next year. Given all the changes in Denver, I doubt they do any better than their #12 pick this year, so Seattle got almost the full-round premium in exchange for the present value of that #37 pick.
So, even in the 1st round where things are crazy, the value chart seems to be tattered but still intact. It might be useful to look at all the trades and see what the premiums were.
But good post. I agree with most of it, especially about kids looking for 3-4 Ds and WCO teams.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
