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Around SBN: Don't Blame Wes Welker

NFL Draft 2009: Smokescreens and Misinformation

This is the time of year when you can't really believe anything you read. NFL GMs have set their draft boards and it stands to reason they would want to assure themselves a potential investment is of sound mind before sinking millions of dollars into him. So, you have to believe there is some level of interest in these players by the 49ers. There are a number of other reasons a team may bring certain prospects in for a private look, which I will get into in moment. 

After scouring every source I could find (here, here, and here are a few) there are about 20 names reportedly meeting one-on-one with the 49ers...so far.

QB: Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Mike Reilly

RB: Chris "Beanie" Wells, Knowshon Moreno, Andre Brown, Donald Brown

WR: Michael Crabtree 

OL: Michael Oher, Andre Smith

DL:  BJ Raji, Jarron Gilbert, Tyson Jackson, Ziggy Hood, Pierre Walters

LB:  Rey Maualuga

DB: William Moore, Patrick Chung, Greg Toler

Looking at this list of prospects, three things jump out at me.

One...character concerns. Of the five players that have been projected at the #10 pick, four have questions about their mental make-up (Andre Smith, Michael Crabtree, Michael Oher and BJ Raji). Andre Smith's offseason has been well chronicled. People have questioned whether or Michael Oher can grasp intricate schemes. B.J. Raji failed a drug test and then there's this. And now we're hearing about off-field issues with Michael Crabtree. The fifth player, Mark Sanchez, would certainly warrant the same psychological examination as the 49ers gave Matthew Stafford. And, of course, you have to maintain that QB interest for potential suitors in trade.

Two...sleepers. Mike Reilly (like this guy and had Niners taking him in my first NN mock in January), Pierre Walters and Greg Toler might have a lot of people saying, "who's that?". This is the 49ers being thorough, getting a chance to see small school players who might get late round consideration and may not have been tracked closely during the college football season or have campus pro days.

Three...smokescreen! Where are the pass rushers and cornerbacks? Suspiciously absent from this list are names like Brian Orakpo and Everette Brown. Even names like Malcolm Jenkins, Aaron Maybin, Connor Barwin, Vontae Davis, Darius Butler and Larry English. It may not mean much. It may mean the 49ers really aren't thinking about a CB or OLB in the draft, but we all know that isn't the case. Or do we?

The 49ers are being sneaky...very sneaky.

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Singletary's focus

seems to be stopping the run. He’s looking at players who are Run Stoppers 1st Pass Rushers 2nd.
and
I’m glad to see we’re looking at a few top notch safetys

http://www.49ersboard.blogspot.com

by supraman on Apr 6, 2009 9:51 AM PDT reply actions  

It's QB Sweepstakes (Because they told you so!)

Okay – here’s my take :: the 49ers are doing the “typical” meetings because “they” (NFLTA, ESPN, et. all) are all saying the 49ers need a QB-OL-CB-DL-S. Why not play the part? If all the communication around the league suggests you take those positions, but you have another idea in mind, why not play the hype? Great strategy! Or, would people actually think this is what the 49ers are going to do?

If that’s the case then people are expecting the typical 49er smoke screen. Meaning the 49ers should bring in the positional players because no one expects them to draft that position. All I gotta say is IF McCloughin screws this draft up… he should be fired! He’s got nine chances to get 3-4 immediate impact players. That’s a 50% success rate. Of course, this doesn’t include a trade down to Denver’s 18th pick, which I think would be a good move if we could pick up another 2nd and 3rd rounder.

Steven

by Slong on Apr 6, 2009 10:17 AM PDT reply actions  

Sanchez & Stafford = trade bait.

I think the most likely trade is with Denver for their #12 pick and a 3rd+4th. Their trade with Chicago left them with an extra 3rd this year, and they definitely have a need for another franchise QB, so that looks like an easy decision for them.

But the Lions also need a francise QB, and they also have an extra 1st round pick this year, at #20 from Dallas. They could jump up to #10 by giving up the #20 and their #33 pick, which would be very sweet for the 9ers. The team is in a great bargaining position this year – they could end up with Oher at #12 along with extra 3rd & 4th round picks, or Rey Maualuga at #20 and Sean Smith or Connor Barwin at #33.

by MontanaPass on Apr 6, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like your thinking here.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Apr 6, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

The problem with the trade bait scenario is almost every team in the top 10 hopes/plans to trade with Denver. 10 sellers vs 1 buyer doesn’t make an equitable trade for the seller.

by bignerd on Apr 6, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like your thinking too...

I wander if Maualuga could turn into another Polamalu?? Probably not, I am just racially profiling now. Wouldn’t that be sweet though?! I got my wish for a bad ass LB a few years ago with Willis, my second wish has been for a S like Polamalu.

by jonesin25 on Apr 6, 2009 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mayocks preview

So he has us taking Sanchez. I would do that in a heartbeat..
if it plays out just like he suggested i think we get a steal..
orakpo and crabtree would still be on the board. that means that san fran takes Sanchez and then can trade with Denver at 12. Get another pick and we are guaranteed to get either orakpo or crabtree at 12.. pick up an extra 3rd round pick. please lord let this happen

Other than death and taxes, only 4 things in this world are indisputable:
Brandon Roy is the BEST player in the NBA in the clutch.
Montana to Rice were the greatest to ever play the game.
The Four Horsemen of Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine and Avery were unstoppable.
No one protects the pipes like Luongo.

by GreatOden'sRaven on Apr 6, 2009 10:25 AM PDT reply actions  

If the Niners were to draft Sanchez, what does that do to the QB depth chart? Having formerly been a #1 draft pick and still possessing some (debatable) degree of talent, Alex Smith really shouldn’t be a 3rd string QB. If they draft Sanchez, he also shouldn’t be a 3rd stringer. And Shaun Hill, even if we draft Sanchez, should probably be the starter this year, and shouldn’t be less than second on the depth chart. Damon Huard is really the perfect candidate for 3rd string. So how would Sanchez, Smith and Hill shake out? Does Smith get released or traded?

I'm thinking but nothing's happening.

by JRPhillips on Apr 6, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think...

… the players will still stay on the roster (re: Smith and Hill), at least for this year. The team has the cap room to keep them, and unless they need that money to sign an injury replacement, they’d keep both QBs on the roster.

by sfgfan on Apr 6, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hill and Smith would battle this year for the starting spot. The loser would leave town next year and the winner would start to compete with Sanchez for the starting spot in 2010 under that scenario. I’m not passing on any QB prospect over Huard.

by bignerd on Apr 6, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well in the scenario I described..

both Crabtree and Orakpo are on the board. Denver would take whichever one Buffalo didnt take (presumably Buffalo would take Orakpo) and then Denver would trade us Crabtree and a 3rd rounder for Sanchez.

Now if we decided to keep him. I imagine they keep Hill and let Smith and Huard battle it out in training camp for the final spot. Whoever doesnt make it I am sure is released prior to opening day roster in order to save cap space and not have to pay a roster bonus.

Other than death and taxes, only 4 things in this world are indisputable:
Brandon Roy is the BEST player in the NBA in the clutch.
Montana to Rice were the greatest to ever play the game.
The Four Horsemen of Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine and Avery were unstoppable.
No one protects the pipes like Luongo.

by GreatOden'sRaven on Apr 6, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Huard would lose...

… out right off the bat. There’s a lot less invested in him.

by sfgfan on Apr 6, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

there's just one problem with your scenario ....

Crabtree and Orakpo will both probably be gone by the 10th pick

"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds

by Persiflage on Apr 6, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Trade Smith for picks!

I think there were three reasons why the 49ers management renegotiated with Alex Smith:
1) It makes him a more tradable commodity
2) It’s in keeping with is lack luster performance (although the OL had a lot to do with his pocket protection – when he had protection, he did well)
3) McCloughan likes Smith…

My vote goes to number 1. I think right now they believe HIll is the starting QB – but they won’t say it or hint to that because they want to keep Alex happy. Huard is there to back up Hill and I think taking a QB like Sanchez, is a smart move. He can develop for 2-3 years.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Alex Smith is traded as part of some elaborate McCloughan deal with another team. Who knows what’s in his head? It’s not like he or Singletary are going to share it with us. Otherwise, the whole NFL and GM’s would know! :) But you can bet your money on the fact that some white board in Santa Clara has hundreds of different scenarios – maybe even on computers powered by the Silicon Valley! HA!

by Slong on Apr 6, 2009 11:07 AM PDT reply actions  

If they trade Smith...

… now, it’ll make players think twice about signing a contract with the 49ers, especially their own players. Smith signed a contract with the 49ers in good faith that he would get a shot at the job and stick with the team. I know it’s a business, but there’s also the underwritten understandings players have as well.

by sfgfan on Apr 6, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

exactly

That’s a video game football trade, not a real life trade. Football isn’t just a game, it’s a business and affects the lives of players and their families.

Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 6, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

I can see it now.. The 49ers trade Alex Smith for the Eagles two 1st round picks in 09 and their 1st round pick in 2010

Actually I can see them taking Sanchez and having his as the 3rd QB for 09. I would much rather Crabtree or Sanchez fall to # 10 and have Denver or another team trade up and give us another 2nd or 3rd rounder (depends on how far down in the 1st we trade). That will give us three picks for RT, RB and OLB. I would really like them to draft Beanie Wells in the late 1st.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Apr 6, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree

Smith showed a lot of character in re-working his contract. His agent, who could be lying but I doubt it, said that Smith turned down more money from elsewhere b/c Smith felt he had “unfinished business.” I haven’t been a huge Smith fan over the past few years yet I still believe he’s talented and he should get another shot at some point. The way he handled all of turmoil shows a lot. I like the guy; I wish him the best and I hope we don’t trade him.

by Neon on Apr 6, 2009 11:51 AM PDT reply actions  

Up in Smoke!

I wish Alex well – I really do! I think he showed some great talent and potential WHEN he had pass protection. However, he forced things a lot too. Now, granite, in time as he matures as a man with experience in the NFL, he really could be a great QB.

My only point above is that yes, Alex will get a shot to compete, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s traded to a team that’s really struggling to find a better QB but has neither the salary cap or the draft order to achieve it. I think if one things for sure, the Cutler trade showed us that nobody is off limits from a trade in the NFL. Crazy!

Can you imagine the 49ers talking trade with Montana and Young? Oh, wait a minute, they did several times… in fact I think the Contra Costa Times reported that several times in the late 80’s and even in the late 90’s. I’m just merely illustrating my point.

Again, I’m not saying we should trade Smith – I think he should get a real shot under Singletary. In fact, if we take a really good OL (not sold on Marvel yet – age/durability) Alex could do really well. I’m merely bringing up the point that it wouldn’t surprise me.

BTW… did you see that Garcia is back in the Bay Area? LOL

Steven

by Slong on Apr 6, 2009 2:41 PM PDT reply actions  

With Staley, Bass, Heitmann, Rachal and Smith all healthy and playing together through through the Preseason it will help both the passing and running games

The only person who has not moved on the OL is Heitmann. So with a second year or part of last year and this with the above OL it gives the OL time to jell together. I can see it now… Sign Beanie Wells, and both Wells and Gore get 1600 yards rushing and the QB (Hill or Smith) passes for 3500 yards with 25 TD and 3 INT.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Apr 6, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

thoughts on these comments so far ...

1 – look, we can all like Mark Sanchez, but with only a single year under his belt, there is no question that he is a high risk/high reward commodity – with Alex Smith already on our roster, drafting Mark Sanchez is just like getting another Alex Smith (who this time could be luckier, less injury ridden, have less suck – but who also could be worse) … basically, is one good college year enough to justify taking him as your #1 draft pick, especially when other teams are a lot more desperate/willing to give up more for him than we are???

2 – with our first 4-5 picks, there is absolutely no reason we can’t address all our holes at offensive tackle, pass rushing, free safety and running back depth – oh yeah, unless we decide it’s better to address future replacements for future holes we don’t really have right now

3 – Alex Smith … whatever … the past draft picks I’m worried about wasting are Kentwan Balmer and Manny Lawson … yes, we really really need a pass rusher right now, but Balmer and Lawson are still on the team for a reason, right? I guess I’m questioning the “you have to take the best player on the board” philosophy. Is B.J. Raji really the best player on the board when you have a year older Kentwan Balmer along with Demetric Evans for depth, and Oher or A. Smith are available?

4 – I just can’t hope for Alex Smith becoming our franchise QB anymore. As attractive as Sanchez is, I hope the 49ers really look hard at Josh Freeman, Mike Reilly, or heck, even Tom Brandstater – the upside is higher when you look at the lower cost.

"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds

by Persiflage on Apr 6, 2009 5:11 PM PDT reply actions  

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