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Drafting Philosophy: Drafting for now vs. Drafting for the future

When a team struggles like the 49ers have done much of this decade, one would imagine there are a ton of holes to fill.  I realize the 49ers have shown improvement at times, particularly the last half of last season.  However, I think we'll all agree they weren't a great team.

I bring this up because I'm curious about people's thoughts on draft strategy for the 49ers.  Not so much specific players, but more how you address specific needs given the current make-up of the team.  The team is not a Super Bowl contender as is (at least I don't think), and yet, I wonder how many true holes exist.  The team doesn't have a lot of depth, but I do think there is some very solid talent at a lot of positions.  It's a team with needs, but not necessarily holes.

The question then surrounds those high picks, where you're spending a little bit more cash and giving longer deals.  Do you necessarily want to grab an offensive lineman if you're going to be sitting him for the immediate future behind Marvel Smith?  Do you draft an outside linebacker if you think Parys Haralson and Manny Lawson could be your answer.  In the NFL Draft you're looking just as much to the future as you are to the present.

As we're fast approaching the draft in a few weeks, I thought I'd go through the starters at certain positions.  I'm curious if people think they're replaceable in the very near future, or how you factor them in when considering draft strategy.  This is focusing more on the various first round options, given the big money that would be paid out.

Pass Rush/OLB: I put these together because really we're hoping for the sacks to come from the outside linebackers.  Parys Haralson led the team in sacks without being an every-down linebacker thanks to the Nolan substitution "strategy."  Given a full season in a more basic 3-4, maybe he busts into double digits?  Manny Lawson on the other hand has never been known as a big pass rusher, but put on weight and is anticipating more of a pass rushing role.

Haralson is a free agent after this year, although I'd hope the 49ers would use some of this cap space to ink him to a long term deal.  If not, then I could see the reasoning for trying to grab an Everette Brown (or multiple other options).  If you re-sign Haralson, do you still try and draft a pass rusher in the first round, even though he wouldn't be an every-down player?

Offensive Tackle: The signing of Marvel Smith conceivably sets up the offensive line for 2009, with depth in guys like Barry Sims, Adam Snyder and Tony Wragge.  So, do you draft an Andre Smith or Michael Oher?  You're going to be paying some serious coin to somebody that likely won't start unless we see injuries elsewhere on the line.  Depth is good, but at that price?  Or maybe you start phasing out 2010 free agent David Baas and temporarily place Smith/Oher at guard?

Quarterback: I've been pretty adamant about not wanting a QB with the 10th pick.  I do think the 49ers should draft a QB, but not until later in the draft.  The up-side though to taking a QB with a first round pick is that you really won't be killed for sitting the QB that first year, and maybe even that second year.  I'm not arguing for it, but one could argue it's the most reasonable use of that first round pick.  Just a thought.

I realize there are other positions that can be considered here, but I think the same thoughts apply.  The general point I'm trying to make is that we've got some serious questions to be answered.  You can certainly never have too much talent on a team.  At the same time, you don't want to waste a pick.  We don't know if Kentwan Balmer will be a bust, but that first year certainly wasn't inspiring.  Do we want another year of that from a first round pick?

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to continue my thought from the qb thread

I remember watching Sanchez throughout the season and thinking “He’s good, probably a bit better than Booty but not quite Leinart…I wouldnt mind if the niners spent a 3rd round pick on him.” Then all of a sudden McCoy, Bradford, and Tebow decide to stay and Sanchez is put on this pedestal as a top 5/top 10 pick. I think the media sensationalizes these big name/big school QBs as top picks for whatever reason (ratings, more attention to mock drafts) and unfortunately they get GMs to drink some of that Kool Aid.

I’m not saying that hes gonna be horrible, and I’ll even say that in the right situation, I’m confident that he can be a solid QB, but at 10 its too much of a risk given that he started for only a year. Now some of you may point to Cassel, but when you learn by osmosis from Brady and can dump off to Welker or have Moss catch virtually every ball you throw to him, its not as difficult to put up gaudy numbers and succeed in this league.

That said, it’s been a while since we’ve had depth in the “trenches”, so now that our d-line is somewhat deep its time to add depth to the o-line or to the rest of the front seven.

by VD cant be Contained on Apr 6, 2009 11:14 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

+ 10 for pointing out that the Sanchez risk factor is far too high for the 10th pick in the draft

"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds

by Persiflage on Apr 6, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The defensive secondary?

I think it’s a mistake to ignore the team needs in the secondary.

Everyone mentions the sack total from last year, but a lot of that is due to Mike Martz and J.T. O’Sullivan. Martz QB’s often have above-average sack totals and unless they have a quick release and can read coverage well (Warner), they are going to get pressured and sacked a lot. O’Sullivan was a poor decision maker and we had a pretty poor receiving group. O’Sullivan was sacked 32 times and had 220 pass attempts, while Shaun Hill was only sacked 23 times on 288 pass attempts. When you factor in that the Niners will become a run first team, how important is protecting the passer really going to be? I’d rather have lower-paid mauling bulldozers who can run block than overpaying for a premier LT.

On the other side of the ball, the only reason our pass defense finished 20th is due to the outstanding play of Spikes and Willis last year. Our secondary was pretty awful aside from Clements. The worst units on this team were Run Offense (27th) and Pass Defense (20th). I think the Niners can address the run offense in the 2nd/3rd rounds with some of the top Guards in the draft and 2nd tier Tackles.

Pass defense on the other hand… needs to be addressed early in this draft. I’m having a hard time seeing how guys like Michael Jenkins, Sean Smith, and Vontae Davis are less value for the Niners than Oher or Smith. All three of those guys would play a significant role in the Niners 2009 season and hopefully beyond. Are they consensus top 10 picks? Probably not, but I’m still holding out hope that the Niners can trade down to the teens and grab one of these guys.

Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 6, 2009 11:16 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Secondary...

… isn’t being ignored. It just doesn’t fit the first round and where the 49ers are sitting right now with their pick. You can speculate about trading down all you want, but the bottom line is that trading down isn’t all that common and it probably won’t happen. It’s possible, yes, but unlikely. If anything, I think that if the 49ers trade down, they’ll be more likely to take an OT (i.e. someone like Loadholt) in the later part of the first round than a DB.

by sfgfan on Apr 6, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

late-round OT over DB

would be a terrible move in terms of talent likely to be available. Secondary only fits in the first and second rounds, so if not the first then I’d hope it’s going to be addressed with round 2. There are plenty of late round impact linemen, but how many shutdown corners and impact safeties are found after round 2 in the NFL?

In terms of pick #10 and drafting BPA, I’m not convinced that Maybin/Brown are better than Jenkins/Smith/Davis. Brown is a 4-3 DE and Maybin needs more experience.

The only known drawbacks to guys like Jenkins and Smith are that they are “too big” and might be better suited at FS. This was the exact same thing said about Nnamdi Asomugha and these guys are possibly even higher rated than he was coming out of college.

The majority of the best DB’s in the NFL right now are 6’0" and above: N. Asomugha, C. Gamble, A. Harris, D. Rodgers-Cromartie, C. Woodson, A. Cromartie, etc.

Plus… part of me just wants to see jump ball situations in the red zone with Sean Smith lined up against L-Fitz.

Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 6, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why...

… are you willing to write off Brown as a 4-3 DE but not Maybin? What, because he supposedly has dropped back into coverage a few times? The simple fact of the matter is this: the majority of 3-4 OLBs in the NFL were college 4-3 DEs. Brown, contrary to what you believe, will likely land on some team that is running a 3-4 or some hybrid of it.

As for Jenkins, Smith and Davis: you’re probably one of the only people who think Smith and Davis are worthy of a top 10 pick. I think Jenkins can be a top 10 pick if he can stick at corner. The problem with that is that he will likely be a better fit at FS, and it provides a bit of uncertainty over whether or not he’lll be a ballhawking safety, which is what a top 10 FS should be. I’m a huge fan of Jenkins and think he could help the team a lot, but not at #10, and he won’t be there in the late teens or early 20s, if the 49ers trade back that far.

I’m a big fan of big corners, but I strongly feel no corners are top 10 picks here. I understand you feel that the team needs a DB, but I think the team’s RT need is far greater than that of their DB. Heck, I feel OLB is a bigger need than a DB. I’m not a big fan of taking an OT at #10, but if the 49ers trade back into the 20s, I am all for taking a RT there (as that’s where a RT actually provides value.

by sfgfan on Apr 6, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

09 Draft is deep in OLB/OT

This draft is deep in OLB/DE’s and OT’s. I really have a hard time saying that the Maybin/Brown/Orakpo group is a better fit at 3-4 OLB than the 2nd tier of Barwin/Johnson/Cushing/English.

At RT, Phil Loadholt, Herman Johnson, Fenuki Tupuo, Will Beatty, and Eben Britton are all going to be available in rounds 2/3. It’s far easier to find a good RT than LT in the draft.

At CB, there is not that same kind of depth. The only guys who may be available in round 2 are Alphonso Smith and Darius Butler and after round 2 there is a black hole of mediocrity. At FS/SS, there is a little more depth in rounds 2/3.

There are a few teams rumored to have Jenkins high on their board in the top 10 and he might not even be there at #10.

If you go OLB or OT at #10, then what’s the strategy for rounds 2-3? That’s what I’m having a hard time determining.

Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 6, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're going to need starters early

in the draft. Olb is one, Db is another. You’re going to need a starting OL sometime this Year. Why? Marvel is an Iffy, Sim was replace during the season and Bender came from the Jets practice squad last year. Not good. Draft at least 2 Off. Line. Toss up as to who being pick first and second (Olb or OT). Cb in 3th and DE in 4th. 5th rd. regular pick can be anyone. Draft the second OL no sooner than the 5th rd.(supplemental pick) A QB can wait even until next year. He’s not a real concern right now.

by LASVEGASNINER on Apr 6, 2009 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good CBs in 3rd round.

There will likely be some very good CB prospects available in the 3rd round.

- Mike Mickens
- Sherrod Martin
- Kevin Barnes
- Coye Francies

Mickens, Martin, & Barnes all have outstanding short-shuttle and 3-cone times, and Francies is a ballhawk. I would take any of them at #74 and be pleased, although if Sean Smith were to somehow fall to us in the 2nd I would be ecstatic.

But at #10 the 9ers should take Oher, even if Smith is available, because the team needs to solidify the OL for the next several years. A Staley/Oher combo would give them two OTs who can play either side in case of injury.

by MontanaPass on Apr 6, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree

DB’s can be complete game changers. You throw in a player who is capable of stealing the ball out of the air, that can make the difference in a ball game. And it often does. Lord knows we have not had a player back there who is capable of doing this for us. Even Clements, as our best DB, hasn’t done much, he has had success quieting some good receivers, but he hasn’t had shit for picks. Our safeties have been atrocious, and if a player like Jenkins could fill that void, I would be happy as hell with it. If he could take over at CB, I would also be happy because Harris is on his way out, I can’t count how many times he got burnt last year. I am not in the calling for a first pick DB per say, I want a dominate O-lineman, but you can’t ignore that DB is THE hole on the team. In fact it is a Black Hole, and we don’t need any of those in Frisco. Historically, top pick DB’s are successful in the NFL, and if they are willing to fill that hole with the first pick, I wouldn’t be to disappointed.

by jonesin25 on Apr 6, 2009 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

my feelings exactly

Let’s look at the 1st round DB’s taken in the top 20 picks of the past few drafts.

2008: BUF – Leodis McKelvin (11), ARI – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (16), TB – Aqib Talib (20)
2007: NYJ – Darrelle Revis (14), CIN – Leon Hall (18), NYG – Aaron Ross (20)
2006: STL – Tye Hill (15), MIA – Jason Allen (16), SD – Antonio Cromartie (19)
2005: TEN – Pacman Jones (6), ARI – Antrel Rolle (8), WAS – Carlos Rogers (9)

The only guys you can consider a disappointment are Pacman Jones and Jason Allen out of the last 4 years. When you take a top CB, you’re likely getting a starter for years to come.

Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 6, 2009 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cant' argue with those numbers!

So if you want to talk about needs….We NEED this!!

by jonesin25 on Apr 6, 2009 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds

by Persiflage on Apr 7, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

let’s keep in mind that we got our LT of the future with a late 1st rd pick in a draft that wasnt as deep with OT talent as this draft. 10 is too high for an RT, and I wouldnt want to mess with Staley’s confidence by moving him Rt to LT and then back to RT. Let’s hope that we find a late 1st/early 2nd steak-without-the-sizzle talent like Staley, Rachal, or Baas. Given that we’re on the verge of becoming a very good defense, I dont mind improving depth anywhere on D (with the exception of the ends), especially since Walt Harris’ age is something we seem to overlook.

by VD cant be Contained on Apr 6, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

20th Ranked Pass Defense

Uhhh . . . we aren’t playing in the AFC North here. The Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams are all passing teams which we have to play 2 times a year. Our rank is always going to be skewed lower than the unit’s actual ability.

by bignerd on Apr 6, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seahawks and Rams?

These aren’t the Martz Rams we’re talking about and the Seahawks had a very mediocre passing offense last year.

Rams in 2008: 26th in passing offense
Seahawks in 2008: 29th in passing offense

The Niners had non-division games against the Redskins (23rd), Lions (24th), Giants (18th), and Bills (22nd). That’s half of the schedule against weak passing teams and the other half against good passing teams. I’d say it was a balanced schedule.

Based on that, the Niners should have been higher than 20th if they had an NFL-average pass defense..

Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 6, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I gotta give it up that is a strong counter argument. We still faced the Giants with Burris, Lions when they were still trying and Seahawks before their season was ended.

Still, I look at the list of higher ranked passing defenses and see less desirable personnel in the secondary: Redskins, Cowboys, Bengals and that is only naming a few. Our problem is more in the pass rush than secondary even if Nate isn’t the next Deion Sanders.

by bignerd on Apr 6, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams are all passing teams which we have to play 2 times a year.

All the more reason to start improving our secondary sooner than later. Remember, weren’t we just a couple wins short of playoff contention last year (the Arizona/Seattle games)?

"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds

by Persiflage on Apr 6, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The worst units on this team were Run Offense (27th) and Pass Defense (20th). I think the Niners can address the run offense in the 2nd/3rd rounds with some of the top Guards in the draft and 2nd tier Tackles.

Yes! We need depth in our offensive line for protecting the run as well as the pass. And we desperately need an improved secondary. I don’t care how we do it, but it needs to be done whether it means (a) trading down, or whether it means (b) simply trying for a Jenkins/Smith/Davis 1st pick, a 2nd tier offensive tackle 2nd pick, and a QB/RB depth 3rd pick.

"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds

by Persiflage on Apr 6, 2009 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The question with Parys Haralson may be more if he’ll translate his team leading sack totals into double-digit sacks, or if he’ll go the route of Tully Banta-Cain. Tully put up nice sack totals as a part-time player in New England, but as soon as the Niners signed him, those impressive part-time numbers didn’t translate so well into his starting gig.

So if a guy who projects to be a top notch pass rushing OLB is available at 10, do you pass on him because of Haralson? My gut says no. But my gut is also very hungry. If you pass on a pass rusher because there’s someone else you want to get at another position of need, I’d be cool with that. But I wouldn’t pass on an OLB because of Haralson.

I'm thinking but nothing's happening.

by JRPhillips on Apr 6, 2009 11:25 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think you can pass...

… just because there is one decent looking pass rusher on the roster. The 3-4 (and any other scheme, really) needs at least two solid pass rushers, and Haralson isn’t necessarily a “solid” one yet, either.

If Crabtree is gone at #10, I really hope the 49ers take a pass rusher, especially if it’s Brown or Orakpo (which is unlikely). If those three players are gone, I really don’t know who the team should pick.

by sfgfan on Apr 6, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which is why two good OTs are needed.

It’s the OT-PR battle. Because teams need two good pass rushers on defense to pressure QBs, offenses need two good pass protecting OTs. And that’s why the 9ers should draft Oher at #10 – he’s a good pass protector and can be made into a good run blocker as well as provide backup for Staley on the left side.

by MontanaPass on Apr 6, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But if we draft someone at OT with the #10 pick, and he’s immediately a backup, doesn’t that diminish the value of the pick? I’d think it would be a better choice to draft someone who could either immediately start or at least regularly rotate into the lineup with an eye towards becoming a full time starter either before the season is out or by next year.

By the way, we really need to get the Altamont Pass renamed the Montana Pass. That would be the greatest thing ever.

I'm thinking but nothing's happening.

by JRPhillips on Apr 6, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

An OT with the # 10 pick would probably have a chance to start at RT and also back both RT and LT.

The Altamont Pass is thinking too small. How about renaming San Mateo County or Santa Clara County to Montana County and the other would have to be Rice County or even Walsh County

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Apr 6, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll sacrifice Marin County

I love Marin, but I’d be much happier if it were Montana County or Rice County.

by Neon on Apr 6, 2009 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you here...

But if you remember correctly, Tully was never a starter, and last year he couldn’t even make the active roster remember? So I agree with your comments, but you gave Tully a bit to much credit, haha. I don’t think Parys will fall off like that, but I do think we need someone else to step it up as well. If you remember how beastly Smith was last year, he had to break double and tripple teams last year to even put pressure on the QB, we get a good NT who can plug up a few bodies, Smith will double his production.

by jonesin25 on Apr 6, 2009 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Best Player Available

If that is the way to go, probably you would need players, at least in the first 3 rounds, that can make an immediate impact or at least represent an upgrade to the starter you have in that position. They should be able to altern in their first team in the rookie year expecting them to become fully starters in their second year.

In the second day you have many picks that you may be able to get some depth or decent prospects and you can focus more on the weakest and thinest positions in your team. At least one of those, like Josh Morgan, can have a good rookie season and that can qualify as drafting for now.

Some positions need more time adjusting from college to the pros, especially QBs, so you shouldn’s expect an immediate impact, being Flacco or Ryan exceptions to that rule.

In that case, I am thinking now that a QB in this draft can only be taken in the final rounds, and only as a gamble, hoping to get lucky, if not Tom Brady lucky at least Marc Bulger lucky, just hoping really to get a good QB in a few years that few see it was there

For drafting just a backup we already have one sure at least for this year, and the possibilities are so many (Hill succeeds, Smith succeds, both fail, the starter does a good enough job but will not make us a playoff team in the future, etc.), that in this draft we still do not have the need or information to risk wasting a 1st or 2nd. round pick in a QB that may be just a backup for 2 to 3 years.

Smith is still a prospect, and until the team needs to give up on him we should not waste a high round pick on another prospect with only good “upside”. Better to take good players that have better chances of giving value to your team. Everybody is talking that next year will be a strong QB class, and I prefer to wait and draft a good QB then, and if necessary keep the “run first” approach until that drafted QB is ready to step up, or until we get a franchise QB in free agency.

by PeruvianNiner on Apr 6, 2009 12:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Picks 1-20 become business decisions.

There is so much money and reputation at stake with the top picks these days that I think these picks have become more business decisions than football decisions. What I mean by this is the insertion of “bust-risk” into the draft equation. If a QB or WR or RB is selected #1, or #10, or even #20, and subsequently becomes a bust, the impact can be significant. Tens of millions in wasted “dead money” against the salary cap. The lost opportunity to upgrade team personnel. The loss in reputation to both the team owner(see Davis, Snyder, etc) the GM(Millen), the scouting department, and the head coach(Nolan).

So nobody wants to take a chance on drafting a bust, and part of that is to be very, very cautious about taking players at high bust percentage positions. Like Quaterbacks from spread offenses. And WRs who don’t fit the exact physical requirements despite production. Or RBs who are smaller or slower than ideal. If it was just a football decision, many of these kinds of players would go higher. As a result of this trend, I think Crabtree could fall into the mid-teens – nobody wants to pay top dollar for a car they can’t test drive or kick the tires on, and Crabtree hasn’t been working out. That, combined with the height reduction from 6-4 to barely 6-2, will drive him down boards, imho.

by MontanaPass on Apr 6, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

would be great

But I actually think the Browns are taking him at #5 after that Stallworth debacle.

You can’t trade your #2 receiving option and lose your #3 receiving option and not address the position in the draft. Plus with Quinn/Anderson, they are going to be looking for results in the passing game.

If Crabtree drops to us, I’ll be doing backflips jumping for joy.

Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 6, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Over Orakpo or Curry?

A whole lot of mocks have the Browns jumping on Orakpo and they have been all over him according to news reports. My guess is that Crabtree will fall into the mid-teens to the Chargers or Texans.

But there’s a very good chance the 9ers could trade down with any of the Broncos(excellent chance), the Bucs(decent chance), or the Lions(excellent chance) if either Sanchez or Stafford falls to #10. Both the Broncos and the Lions have two 1st round picks and both are desperate for a franchise QB. The Broncos could jump up two spots by throwing in a 3rd , and the Lions could jump up from #20 by throwing in their 2nd at #33. Either trade would put the 9ers in very good position, imho.

by MontanaPass on Apr 6, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Broncos are out.

If a QB falls to 10, then he’ll be there at 12… I think the Broncos would stand pat. I can’t see any scenario where they trade up to 10, but could see them trading up to the top 5 if a QB is taken #1.
The Lions are the best trade partners right now for the Niners since they have enough picks to trade away in the top 100.

The draft order is going to depend a lot on picks 1-3 this year because the teams picking from 4-9 all have multiple needs. Here’s how I see the top 5 going as of today:

1. DET – OT Jason Smith, Baylor
2. STL – OT Eugene Monroe, Virginia
3. KC – DE Brian Orakpo, Texas
4. SEA – OLB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
5. CLE – WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech

If Orakpo or Curry are there at #5, then I see the Browns taking either of them.

Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....

by youALREADYknow on Apr 6, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

don't draft a QB in at least the first 3 rounds

+ 100

"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds

by Persiflage on Apr 6, 2009 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

3 primary areas of need, IMHO

From those, you pick based on the ridiculous phrase “best player available…”

#1. Offensive Tackle – I totally respect those who say we ’shouldn’t’ pay the LT money to RT, etc. but I don’t buy any of it. We have a lot of salary cap dollars, a glaring need, the lack of a long-term solution, and O-Line is probably the single most important group on the team. I say you get a guy who you feel can play on either side in 5 years. I still like OT at #10

#2. OLB / Pass Rush – Haralson looks good, I like Manny though we need to see some more production from him, but even the most optimistic Niner fan can’t think ’we’re set’ at OLB. With the amazing play of Bam Bam and Takeo we need to put more talent on the outside to balance it out. Plus, Singletary’s serious. He signed a “pass rush coach” which is just about unheard of. We need not one or two but a few players who can rush the passer. I don’t see how we avoid this need in the first 3 rounds.

#3. Secondary – If nothing else, these players can play up to 4 starting positions on the field, or even 5 in a nickel package. You always need good corners, especially when the returning NFC champs are in your division and feature one of the best, biggest WR tandems ever. I’m starting to really get behind Sean Smith from Utah (6’3 1/2", fast) as a potential answer, though it’s questionable if he’d be there in the second. Anyhow, Clements could always use some help and obviously FS is a question mark. I like Lewis but it’s not like we couldn’t use an upgrade at SS either. This is basically such an important position group I think you need to give it attention every year. Good teams have good secondaries.

by Neon on Apr 6, 2009 12:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

What about Jay Moore?

I agree 100% on the need to take an OT in the 1st round, but I’m not so certain about the PR-OLB position. Many seem to be forgetting Jay Moore, who was a Senior Bowl standout and draftee two years ago. He was drafted to become a pass rusher because of his quickness. He’s back for this year, and I can’t believe McClo kept him on the roster just to throw him overboard now.

So what we really have is one decent pass rusher in Parys, an unknown commodity in Manny because he hasn’t been used as a pass rusher up until this year, and a 4th(?) round draft prospect in Moore who hasn’t been looked at yet.

Should the 9ers draft a pass rusher? Absolutely. But there are other ways to improve a pass rush, and one of them is to draft a 2-gap NT who can help free up a LB or S blitz in the middle. And a true 2-gap NT would also improve the run defense, forcing opponents into more obvious passing situations.

There are good pass rush prospects available in the 3-4 rounds, like Lawrence Sidbury, David Veikune, and Cody Brown. Balance that against the shortage of good NT prospects(Raji, Brace, Hill, Knighton), and I would go with NT Brace in the 2nd over a pass rusher.

The 3rd round is packed with very good CB prospects, like Mike Mickens, Sherrod Martin, Kevin Barns, and Coye Francies. Martin is just the kind of big CB that fits the NFC West. The others are good prospects too, so I would look to pick up a CB at #74.

The 4th round should have two decent pass rushers available – Cody Brown and David Veikune. The 9ers have already had Brown in for a workout and I hope they take him here.

The 5th round has lots of raw WR prospects in it – Mike Wallace, Kenny McKinley, Dudly Guice, Johnny Knox, and Aaron Kelly. Kelly would make an excellent redzone receiver and the others are speedsters to add a deep threat. Guice has all the tools to become a #1.

by MontanaPass on Apr 6, 2009 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've changed my mind on Sanchez

I was one of the first to be totally against him but now think he will turn out to be a solid QB. In Sanchez I see a QB similar to Hasselbeck but with an occasional out of nowhere stinker like Warner. Looking at his college career, the unforseen stinker appears to be Sanchez’s only real blemish.

I also think he is Carrol’s best QB prospect behind Palmer. I never thought Booty was any good and also felt Leinart’s hype was bloated. He received 30% of stats dumping the ball off to Reggie Bush and any scout that could get you to listen said Leinart constantly missed reads.

Two things about Sanchez this spring have really changed my mind about him. First, everyone’s come out against kid . . . even his college coach but he’s found a way to overcome that rift and make the relationship work again. He’s also kept his poise and continued to work his game while every team has been openly shying away from him. In the past, guys have hit the panic button.

In his pro work out he also showed improvement. He seems to have taken the time to perfect his foot work. Good mechanics and quick decision making are attributes that a serve QB well in the NFL.

I started changing my mind about Sanchez when I saw the teams not interested in him. The Lions are going to pass and of course he isn’t going to picked by Browns, Bengals and Raiders (for obvious reasons). The Jets fans also seem to hate the idea of getting Sanchez. Yes, it’s false logic but if you gets the thumbs down from that perennial group of draft day losers than maybe you will turn out to be a good pro. Not to mention if you are thinking along the lines of that group it’s time to rethink your position.

Finally, QB’s are going to dominate next year’s draft. Odds are teams are going to be reaching next year for QB sorta like how teams are reaching this year for OT. Maybe the better strategy is to grab the QB in Sanchez this year and take advantage of the undervalued OT or pass rushers next year who are probably going to drop in the draft behind the QB hype. At least the 49ers have the opportunity to let Sanchez sit and learn for a year and have him ready for 2010. They can still get starting day OT, DE/OLB in next years draft.

by bignerd on Apr 6, 2009 12:23 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

They can still get starting day OT, DE/OLB in next years draft.

I think that even if they took Sanchez, they can find a starting RT and maybe a pass rusher in the second and third rounds.

This is not to say that I’d want the 49ers to take Sanchez, however. Though, I would be a lot less upset (if you can even call it upset) if they took Sanchez than if they took Oher or any other OT not named Monroe or J.Smith.

by sfgfan on Apr 6, 2009 12:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Bah.

Reply fail again.

by sfgfan on Apr 6, 2009 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll take the question for $200...Alex.........

If the question is: Do you draft for now or later…….then there can really be no answer. It all depends on the needs of the team. There are teams right now like the Colts, and the Pats….who are really set at the positions they need in order to continue to be effective. So in their case they would draft for the future. When many of their stars begin to hound for more money, playing time, etc. The team can then safely allow that player to test the market and not worry about his replacement, because in the “unlikely event” they leave…….one person simply takes over having already had playing time in the system.

Conversley, if you are talking about a team….like ohhhhh I don’t know… THE NINERS! Then you are drafting for NOW! The folks you pick up will have to step in immediately in order to make the ship up-right again. No organization, no matter how moribund, can constantly accept seasons of ineptitude, and not go into the draft without thinking of right NOW!

Thinking in the long term has cost many a good coach their position simply because the pieces weren’t there to begin with. And the GM’s deceided to draft a guy who is 2-3 yrs away from being effective.

The worst cases of waste in the draft I have seen recently are teams that draft guys for now, then fire the coach/personnelman that acquired them. Thusly, you are stuck with a player who isn’t suited for the new system that is being installed. If you remember, when Ericsson took over for Mooch, he had a team used to and built for the West Coast offense. In comes Ericsson who employs a more vertical passing game. Yet…..all his players were smaller and built for speed. Result……..Terrible seasons right after the other.

In truth, all teams have to look at where they are currently, and choose from that standpoint as to how to draft. It’ a fine line and a very tricky one at that. The best teams and the most consistant can pull it off seamlessly. It’s the teams that constantly use the term “Rebuilding” in a perpetual monologue, that has the issues.

K.C.Edwards -AKA- "THE" DarkkStarr

by DarkkStarr1 on Apr 6, 2009 2:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Correct

Positions need to be filled with starters. At least the first 4 picks. We don’t have the time like N.E. to wait. We also don’t have capable back ups. For instants, the OL.(read earlier comment) The FA Market was supposed to fill some of thoses needs, but ‘mostly’ what we got was back ups. I love Sanchez, but I would have to pass, as much as I hate to. The Pats are in great positions because they’re drafting for the future and with 6 picks in the first 100 choices, they are in better position to be great for the next 5/7 years. We’re starting from scratch again!!!

by LASVEGASNINER on Apr 6, 2009 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

DRAFT FOR NOW ...

1 – because we’ve got to see Singletary succeed and keep him, this guy’s gold

2 – because the draft this year could be the difference between being a playoff contender or not being a playoff contender
     - look, if Shaun Hill keeps playing at the level he has been playing, we’d be competing for the playoffs last year (if Hill had started the entire season last year instead of 8 games with O’Sullivan, wouldn’t that have been another 2-3 wins?)
     - with an actual offensive line, a defense where Patrick Willis and Michael Lewis aren’t trying to play two positions at the same time, and just one more offensive weapon (one of our young emerging WRs, or another RB to tag-team with Gore) – why can’t we do what Tennessee, Carolina, or Miami did last year?

3 – you can draft for now while not completely ignoring the future
     - an OT who is going to be a future starting OT in tandem with Staley
     - a young pass rusher who is going to stay with us for a while (whether we keep guys like Haralson and Lawson or not)
     - a DE to replace Balmer if he is going to turn out to be a bust
     - a young secondary to eventually completely replace Walt Harris/Mark Roman/etc.

I honestly believe this draft can put us into the playoffs.

"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds

by Persiflage on Apr 6, 2009 6:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Run first

doesn’t mean always run. You still need to pass. A good o-lineman can pass block and run block. That is why the top OL are valuable because they can do both. We have a young team that just has a few things that need to be filled. Even with just a pass rusher we could be a playoff team. Remember defense wins championships. And also with a consistent pass rush your DBs will look like All-pros.

by iaalexeeff on Apr 6, 2009 8:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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