Projecting the rookies: WhatIfSports takes it on
by David Fucillo on May 1, 2009 8:00 AM PDT
in San Francisco 49ers News
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PrintI'm curious how many folks have heard of whatifsports.com? It's a rather comprehensive site that does a combination of projections and fantasy sports. Doing a fantasy league with all-time players can be oh so addictive. I highly recommend it if you have some free time....or even if you don't.
Anyways, I noticed a post at Mike Sando's ESPN blog last night that mentioned something rather interesting and I wanted to get people's thoughts on it. The folks at WhatIfSports put together an annual NFL preview that includes stat projections for every single player. Not so surprisingly, the hardest projections are for rookies. As they put it:
To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factors collegiate performance, role in college, strength of collegiate competition, "measurables," likely NFL role, previous performance of a similar player in that NFL role for this coaching staff and trends of similar rookies in the past. This gives us the player's projected ratio stats (expected yards per carry, completion percentage, etc.), as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his new NFL team in his first year.
The results? Well, they came up with a ranking of the top 100 rookies. For the 49ers, Scot McKillop finished #62, one spot ahead of offensive lineman Michael Oher. I'm not quite sure how much an impact McKillop will have as a rookie. He'll get a lot of special teams playing time, but I'm curious how much he'll be on the field the rest of the game. If Spikes stays healthy, who knows...
More importantly for now though, the #1 rookie in terms of positive impact was our very own Michael Crabtree (and yes it still sounds good saying that):
Unlike last season, when three players eclipsed the mark, there are no 1,000-yard rushers or receivers projected from this group of rookies. Crabtree is the closest thing and it really would not be a surprise to see him do it. He gets great marks across the board from college performance, to NFL opportunity, to "measurables" and even a successful player (Issac Bruce) in this role last season. The only concerns with this projection would be inconsistency at quarterback – Shaun Hill, Damon Huard, Alex Smith and Nate Davis are the options – and recent injuries to his feet and ankles.
The remaining top 10 were:
2. Matthew Stafford, QB
3. Mark Sanchez, QB
4. Percy Harvin, WR
5. Aaron Curry, LB
6. Jason Smith, OT
7. Andre Smith, OT
8. Kenny Britt, WR
9. Hakeem Nicks, WR
10. Louis Delmas, S
Thoughts on the rankings? In the case of Stafford, when a team goes 0-16 I'd imagine there really is nowhere to go but up. I remain skeptical about Mark Sanchez, but maybe WhatIfSports has a better idea of this than me. I was intrigued to see Jeremy Maclin ranked 24th overall and behind Heyward-Bey, Nicks, Britt and Harvin. So, any thoughts on whether some folks are over or under-rated?
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Whatifsports
Yeah, I have a baseball dynasty and have had a college football and college hoops dynasty, its pretty legit.
I'm pretty much a professional lurk.
I think Matt Staffords in prime position to be great if he wants it
This season no one expects him to win 5 games. He does that, and he’s a hero for a year. Next season, no one will expect but 8 games, he does that, he’s a hero for another year. Even still, the next year they’ll expect 10 wins and maybe a playoff shot. He does that, he’s well on his way to becoming Jesus Christ of Detroit.
Wanna hear some music?
He can't do it alone, though.
He has a few good targets to throw to (better than anything Alex Smith had as a rookie, but that’s another issue), but he seriously needs the guys up front to help keep him on his feet.
stafford will...
do ok since he has calvin johnson, that guy IMO is top 3 wr in the NFL, just amazing.
I think if percy can stay out of trouble and out of injury then he can BLAZE past the rest, so fast and could be explosive on a decent viking team
by larryallenseawolf on May 1, 2009 10:44 AM PDT reply actions
decent viking team
if they had a QB, they’d be an excellent Viking team. That team scares me, especially with a Percy Harvin now in the mix.
by Andrew Davidson on May 1, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Did the article
not produce numbers for their predictions? I want to see what they forecast Crab to get in terms of catches, yards and scores.
by Andrew Davidson on May 1, 2009 11:13 AM PDT reply actions
predictions
I’ll look into that. Given that they’re combining all positions, it can’t be easy to come up numbers for everybody….
by David Fucillo on May 1, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Numbers
Link from Fox Sports. Looks like the same list.
Crabtree early projection – 76 receptions, 917 yards, 9 TD
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on May 1, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
correct
It is and those would be some impressive rookie numbers.
by David Fucillo on May 1, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Not sure what “positive impact” means exactly, because offensive linemen are on this list, so it must not be based on fantasy value. But any projection system that doesn’t have Knowshon Moreno or Beenie Wells in teh top 10 for rookie production is flawed. RB is always the position with rookies that flourish.
Not so sure about crabtree's numbers...
Dont get me wrong, i believe in the guy. But i think Bruce will be there all the way this year; dont forget he has the second highest total receiving yards in nfl history (should be considered first, because Jerry Rice just shouldn’t count….who is going to pass him up?)
What does...
… Bruce’s previous yardage have to do with this season? The guy is aging and he knows it, too. I’m not saying he’s going to bomb or anything, but I think 49ers fans are setting themselves up for failure if they’re expecting #1 WR numbers out of Bruce.
i see what your saying...
. . . but the guy knows how to split coverages, how to run some shocking patterns, and how to adjust like no other. I don’t think he can hold up one on one against some of the better corners in the league, and i don’t think he will be an impact player if the other team’s secondary can target only him, i just think with Crabtree in the mix now, the other team is going to have to give him due credit and that Bruce will be the one that an inexperienced quarterback is going to look to…..he does most of the work for you.
Maybe Crabtree will be able to make the transition flawlessly from college to NFL, it is the easiest position to do so, but i don’t know if its that easy. Especially since none of our QBs are the kind of guys that can make magic happen yet…
but that’s the exciting thing. i believe in Alex Smith, and Shaun Hill proved himself last year, so i think we can only grow there, and both Josh Morgan and Jason Hill have great potential (as well has Brandon) so there is no knowing what could happen this year
Maybe Crabtree will be able to make the transition flawlessly from college to NFL, it is the easiest position to do so…
I don’t think that’s even remotely close to be true, as RB is by far the easiest transition. I think guards and interior defensive linemen have easier transitions that WRs, too.
I’m optimistic about the offense this year, or at least as optimistic as you can get with a offense that pretty much has sucked the last handful of years. It’ll definitely be an interesting camp and maybe even season.
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