FanPost

A Different look at Jimmy Raye, what are the chances we'll be surprised by our Offense??

Hello all this is Marcus, new to the Ninernation site.  And I must say I'm very impressed, by the number of people using the site and how much buzz there is about my niners.  Just newly acquired the internet cable service I stumbled upon this site looking for recent rumors for San Fran. 

WOW, I am really impressed.

http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/2/4/748677/the-new-49ers-oc-a-raye-of

http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/2/5/748747/the-new-49ers-oc-a-raye-of

I was blown away by this post, it prompted me to signup.  The post I've read are great, it's nice to see some optimism, and pessimism.  I'm confused at times by both the overly-pessimistic and overly-optimistic, some of them seem to be angry judging from some of the posts.  Just to shed a little light on my view of recent disucssions and I'll be brief,Yes,yes,yes  on Crabtree, Coffee, McKillop, the future first rounder, nate Davis, Francois and Cory Sheets, two thumbs up.  9-7 may miss playoffs by one game to the seahawks they have an easier oppurtunity to streak mid-season.   Free agency was forgettable yet solid, Brandon Jones isn't needed now and if Marvel Smith makes all that money we'll be great upfront.  Rb depth is incredible lemme have  a  Gore, Coffee, and Sheets please, hold the Robinson and Battle.  Don't think D backs will be worse than what's his name.  Upset game of the year versus Colts and upset loss will be Texans.  All I have to say is ground game.  Shaun hill is the (site decorum) for now, at least over Smith. (I did pick up on site decorum) 

The most intriguing subject for me this offseason is of course the offense.  The 100 sacks in two years is concerning, especially with the recent changes on the O-Line (not many changes). And it's duly noted that Marts' offenses are rather high in the sack category unless his line is solid all the way around.  I did another search on Jimmy Raye II and his Offensive Coordinator success In his debut season as Gunther Cunningham's OC.  Jimmy Raye possessed an abundance of average players to create with.  Quarterback Elvis Grbac, of Michighan, IMO overhyped coming out of college, but an average QB throughout his career.  Under Raye Grbac amassed his best passing seasons and also his only full seasons as a pro.  In 1999 under Raye, Grbac was 294/499 58.9% 3389 yards 22TD's and 15 Int's sacked 26 times and a rating of 81.7.  I know a lot comes in to play when considering what a QB can do.  Some QB's can get a lot accomplished with average WR's and some can't tie their shoes without a running game.  And of course protection is huge, as well as scheme, on Offense and that's why my mind isn't  settled on knowing what we get.  What I took from the analysis is the 49ers have an average OC who will be average in production.  The leading receiver in this offense under Raye in 1999 was TE Gonzalez in his 3rd NFL season. which remains one of his top three in his career (76 catches 849 yds and 11 TD's) Accompanied by Derrick Alexander at WR ( 54 rec 832 yds 2 TD's) and here's a breakdown of the RB's

  RUSHING   RECEIVING
Name GP ATT YDS AVG TD LNG   REC YDS AVG TD LNG
Donnell Bennett 15 161 627 3.9 8 44   10 41 4.1 0 12
Bam Morris 12 120 414 3.5 3 24   7 37 5.3 0 9
Tony Richardson 16 84 387 4.6 1 26   24 141 5.9

 

In 2001 the Redskins offense in his first and only season as OC, wasn't a lot to talk about, obviously with Tony banks as your Qb and Michael Westbrook and Rod Gardner at wideout, I wouldn't expect much production .  The only bright spot in the offense is Stephen Davis who was ran 356 times. 

ame GP ATT YDS AVG TD LNG   REC YDS AVG TD LNG
Stephen Davis 16 356 1432 4.0 5 32   28 205 7.3 0 29
Ki-jana Carter 14 63 308 4.9 3 30   13 83 6.4 0 15
Tony Banks 15 47 152 3.2 2 17   0 0 0.0 0 0
Donnell Bennett 16 10 39 3.9 0 8   15 112 7.5 0 30
Kent Graham 3 7 -7 -1.0 0 0   0 0 0.0 0 0
Jeff George 2 4 0 0.0 0 2   0 0 0.0 0 0
Michael Westbrook 16 2 8 4.0 0 8   57 664 11.6 4 76t
Rod Gardner 16 1 16 16.0 0 16   46 741 16.1 4 85t
Kevin Lockett 16 0 0 0.0 0 0   22 293 13.3 0 34
Zeron Flemister 16 0 0 0.0 0 0   18 196 10.9 2 33
Walter Rasby 16 0 0 0.0 0 0   10 128 12.8 2 27
Stephen Alexander 7 0 0 0.0 0 0   9 85 9.4 0 21

 

Based on the personnel that was available to Jimmy Raye I feel sorry for him.  Even though this lineup is 7-9 years old, at that time those guys were pitiful.  There's a bunch of guys that had or have short careers.  That's just not the case with the niners.  We have alot of young talent bursting  with potential and we have depth at WR and RB, which will bode well for Hill n company.  No we will not be a top 5 offense, but our weapons will be utilized.  In accordance with offensive numbers I compiled from Raye's past offenses I'm making a fantasy type guess at statistics for next season.  Call it my fantasy predictions for the niners.  In 1999 and 2000 the chiefs statistics as a team included

Passing Rushing
Pts Yds Ply Y/P 1stD Cmp Att Yds TD Int NY/A 1stD Att Yds TD Y/A 1stD TO FL 1stPy
Team Offense 390 5321 1049 5.1 282 295 502 3239 22 15 6.1 164 521 2082 14 4.0 108 24 9 10

 

Passing Rushing
Pts Yds Ply Y/P 1stD Cmp Att Yds TD Int NY/A 1stD Att Yds TD Y/A 1stD TO FL 1stPy
Team Offense 355 5614 999 5.6 321 342 582 4149 29 15 6.7 207 383 1465 12 3.8 84 26 11 30

 

and the redskins in 2001

Passing Rushing
Pts Yds Ply Y/P 1stD Cmp Att Yds TD Int NY/A 1stD Att Yds TD Y/A 1stD TO FL 1stPy
Team Offense 256 4435 960 4.6 241 235 432 2487 13 13 5.3 122 490 1948 10 4.0 104 28 15 15

 

It's difficult considering the stats from the Redskins season, since TOny Banks was the QB, I mean let's be for real I'd take Alex Smith over him in a heartbeat.  Not saying Smith is that bad don't get me wrong, but, Tony Banks for a QB.........LOL!!  So here it is a breakdown of the offense based on success of Jimmy Raye's offense in his first season.  

I'm using the average stats of Shaun Hill's in his short career, I know it's short, but he had the same players and offenses as Smith and JTO, yeah he didn't play against the same teams but he was a lot more effective.  It's not his arm I'm measuring it's his ability to be consistent.  Which is key in any offense.

Hills averages during his nine game career

Taking number of completions 235 divided by 18td's averages to 1td per 13 completions, number of complettions versus interceptions is 235/9 which is 1 int per 26 completions.  I've taken these numbers and placed them in place of Rayes overall offensive play calling (remember I'm looking from a fantasy projection perspective)

Passing Rushing
Pts Yds Ply Y/P 1stD Cmp Att Yds TD Int NY/A 1stD Att Yds TD Y/A 1stD TO FL 1stPy
Team Offense 390 5321 1049 5.1 282 295 502 3239 22 15 6.1 164 521 2082 14 4.0 108 24 9 10

SHill ProSt                    ATT 502 CMP 321 3531yds 25td 12int Gore assuming 68% 354 ATT 1665 yds 8 TD's using same formula

This is an average based on career averages and Rayes first year as coordinator for the chiefs.  With these numbers (although projected) will hopefully give some insight as to what to expect.  i know I didn't factor in Fumbles inuries adn the OL which are KEY.  Nevertheless I think the niners have a match made in Football heaven.  We have an OC that ran more than he passed with the bulk of his talent at WR and TE.  Hopefully Hill can continue his 2 to 1 int ratio and 64 percent completion rating. 

So the question is Will the 49ers offense surprise you with these type of numbers?  And do you think this is a possiblity with the lineup we hae now??  If Gore has 354 out of 521 carries who  would you like to see get them?  And which of our wideouts can catch 80 balls and or have a 1000 yard season with this type of efficiency??  Was T Gonzalez that good in his 3rd year or can these numbers be topped by davis??

Wouldn't surprose me I'm a niner optimist.  I think it's very possible if TO's and SKs come down.  I'd hinestly like Gore around 280 for the season, so he'll have gas for the playoffs we'd be a wildcard division winner at best, and give 80 to coffee and 40 to Streets and 21 to Hill.  Morgan can catch the passes and get the yards.  Crabs can as well (yes as a rookie)  Yes Davus wikk have his best season!!

Your thought!!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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