First Round QBs - Stats Don't Lie

by stuart0908 on May 28, 2009 3:48 PM PDT

So after reading about Matt Stafford and how he has already had a few stumbles in training camp (which is expected), it got me to thinking about how often quarterbacks drafted in the first round really succeed.

Of course we all know that it is a rare occurrence that a quarterback comes along and completely destroy opposing defenses, but the temptation to draft quarterback with the talent to do just that is something that many GMs cannot pass up.

Drafting a quarterback in the first round is a bit like gambling. We all compare quarterbacks to the next coming of Dan Marino or Peyton Manning, but most of the time, teams end up with someone more similar to Ryan Leaf or Heath Shuler.

So what's the deal? Year after year, why do people continually invest 20+ million dollars in guaranteed money to someone who will not likely be on the team five years from now?

In this article, I will take a look at the odds of drafting a successful quarterback in the first round.

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Eli knows what it's like to feel the pressure. Luckily, he was able to overcome his misfortunes and deal with the stress of being a first round pick.

Since the 1970 AFL-NFL Merger, there have been 78 quarterbacks drafted in the first round.

Of these 78 QBs, there are several Hall of Fame candidates such as Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Phil Simms. But amongst the short line of great QBs is a lonnnnng list of people that either never lived up to their potential (Kerry Collins) and players that just plain stunk (Ryan Leaf).

This is the complete list of QBs drafted in round one from 1970 to 2009 along with team they were drafted by, career completion percentage, QB rating, TD/INT stats, and pro-bowls and Super Bowls won. (Just so you know, I did not give them the super bowl win if they were a backup). I also went through and analyzed them and decided whether they were considered a bust or not. I think I was fairly honest about whether or not they are considered a bust, only labeling them that if they never really won consistently or didn't stay with the team for longer than about four or five years.

I also took into consideration many other factors, and I'm sure there may be some disagreement amongst players who are either labeled busts or are not labeled busts, but for the general idea of the article, we are looking merely at the statistics, not individual performances.

Year	Name	Drafted By	QB Rating	Comp. %	TDs	INTs	Pass Yards	PBs	SB Wins	Bust?
1970	Terry Bradshaw	Steelers	70.9%	51.9%	212	210	27,989	3	4 (2 MVPs)	no
1970	Mike Phipps	Browns	52.6%	49.2%	55	108	10,566	0	0	yes

1971	Jim Plunkitt	Patriots	67.5%	52.5%	164	198	25,882	0	2 (2 MVPs)	no
1971	Archie Manning	Saints	67.1%	55.2%	125	173	23,911	2	0	no
1971	Dan Pastorini	Oilers	59.1%	50.9%	103	161	18,515	1	0	yes

1972	Jerry Tagge	Packers	44.2%	48.4%	3	17	1,583	0	0	yes
1972	John Reaves	Eagles	51.4%	46.4%	17	34	3,617	0	0	yes

1973	Bert Jones	Colts	78.2%	56.1%	124	101	18,190	1	0	no

1975	Steve Bartkowski	Falcons	75.4%	55.9%	156	144	24,124	2	0	no

1976	Richard Todd	Jets	67.6%	54.3%	124	161	20,610	0	0	yes

1977	Steve Pisarkiewiscz	Cardinals	49.4%	44.8%	3	7	804	0	0	yes
1977	Tommy Kramer	Vikings	72.8%	55.1%	159	158	24,777	1	0	no

1978	Doug Williams	Buccaneers	69.4%	49.5%	100	93	16,998	0	1 (MVP)	no

1979	Jack Thompson	Bengals	63.4%	53.1%	33	45	5,315	0	0	yes
1979	Phil Simms	Giants	78.5%	55.4%	199	157	33,462	2	1 (MVP)	no
1979	Steve Fuller	Chiefs	70.1%	56.8%	28	41	7,156	0	0	yes

1980	Marc Wilson	Raiders	67.7%	52.1%	86	102	14,391	0	0	yes
1980	Mark Malone	Steelers	61.9%	50.9%	60	81	10,175	0	0	yes

1981	Rich Campbell	Packers	38.8%	45.6%	3	9	386	0	0	yes

1982	Art Schlichter	Colts	42.6%	45.0%	3	11	1,006	0	0	yes
1982	Jim McMahon	Bears	78.2%	58.0%	100	90	18,148	1	1 (MVP)	no

1983	John Elway	Colts	79.9%	56.9%	300	226	51,475	9	2 (MVP)	no
1983	Todd Blackledge	Chiefs	60.2%	48.1%	29	38	5,286	0	0	yes
1983	Jim Kelly	Bills	84.4%	60.1%	237	175	35,467	4	0	no
1983	Tony Eason	Patriots	79.7%	58.2%	61	51	11,142	0	0	yes
1983	Ken O'Brien	Jets	80.4%	58.6%	128	98	25,094	2	0	no
1983	Dan Marino	Dolphins	86.4%	59.4%	420	252	61,361	9	0	no

1986	Jim Everett	Oilers	78.6%	57.7%	203	175	34,837	1	0	no
1986	Chuck Long	Lions	64.5%	54.5%	19	28	3,747	0	0	yes

1987	Vinny Testaverde	Buccaneers	75.0%	56.5%	275	267	46,233	2	0	no
1987	Kelly Stoufer	Cardinals	54.5%	51.5%	7	19	2,333	0	0	yes
1987	Chris Miller	Falcons	74.9%	54.6%	123	102	19,230	0	0	yes
1987	Jim Harbaugh	Bears	77.6%	58.8%	129	117	26,288	1	0	no

1989	Troy Aikman	Cowboys	81.6%	61.5%	164	141	32,945	6	3 (MVP)	no

1990	Jeff George	Colts	80.4%	57.9%	154	113	27,602	0	0	yes
1990	Andre Ware	Lions	63.5%	51.6%	5	8	1,112	0	0	yes

1991	Dan McGwire	Seahawks	52.3%	50.0%	2	6	745	0	0	yes
1991	Todd Marinovich	Raiders	66.4%	50.7%	8	9	1,345	0	0	yes

1992	David Klinger	Bengals	65.1%	54.2%	16	22	3,994	0	0	yes
1992	Tommy Maddox	Broncos	72.4%	57.2%	48	54	8,087	0	0	yes

1993	Drew Bledsoe	Patriots	77.1%	57.2%	251	206	44,611	4	1	no
1993	Rick Mirer	Seahawks	63.5%	53.3%	50	76	11,969	0	0	yes

1994	Heath Shuler	Redskins	54.3%	49.2%	15	33	3,691	0	0	yes
1994	Trent Dilfer	Buccaneers	70.2%	55.5%	113	129	20,518	1	1	yes

1995	Steve McNair	Oilers	82.8%	60.1%	174	119	31,304	3	0	no
1995	Kerry Collins	Panthers	73.8%	55.7%	186	179	37,393	2	0	yes

1997	Jim Druckenmiller	49ers	29.2%	40.4%	1	4	239	0	0	yes

1998	Peyton Manning	Colts	94.7%	64.4%	333	165	45,628	9	1 (MVP)	no
1998	Ryan Leaf	Chargers	50.0%	48.4%	14	36	3,666	0	0	yes

1999	Tim Couch	Browns	75.1%	59.8%	64	67	11,131	0	0	yes
1999	Donovan McNabb	Eagles	85.9%	58.9%	194	90	29,320	5	0	no
1999	Akili Smith	Bengals	52.8%	46.6%	5	13	2,212	0	0	yes
1999	Daunte Culpepper	Vikings	89.0%	31.4%	146	100	23,208	3	0	yes
1999	Cade McNown	Bears	67.7%	54.6%	16	19	3,111	0	0	yes

2000	Chad Pennington	Jets	90.6%	66.0%	101	62	17,391	0	0	yes

2001	Michael Vick	Falcons	75.7%	53.8%	71	52	11,505	3	0	yes

2002	David Carr	Texans	74.9%	59.7%	64	70	14,141	0	0	yes
2002	Joey Harrington	Lions	69.4%	31.3%	79	85	14,693	0	0	yes
2002	Patrick Ramsey	Redskins	74.9%	24.7%	35	30	5,930	0	0	yes

2003	Carson Palmer	Bengals	88.9%	63.7%	107	67	15,630	2	0	no
2003	Byron Leftwich	Jaguars	80.3%	58.6%	54	38	9,624	0	0	yes
2003	Kyle Boller	Ravens	71.9%	56.9%	45	44	7,846	0	0	yes
2003	Rex Grossman	Bears	70.2%	54.2%	33	35	6,146	0	0	yes

2004	Eli Manning	Chargers	76.1%	55.9%	98	74	14,623	1	1 (MVP)	no
2004	Philip Rivers	Giants	92.9%	62.3%	78	36	10,697	1	0	no
2004	Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	89.4%	62.4%	101	69	14,974	1	2	no
2004	J.P. Losman	Bills	75.5%	59.3%	33	34	6,211	0	0	yes

2005	Alex Smith	49ers	63.5%	54.4%	19	31	4,679	0	0	yes
2005	Aaron Rodgers	Packers	91.8%	63.2%	29	14	4,367	0	0	no
2005	Jason Campbell	Redskins	80.4%	59.7%	35	20	7,242	0	0	maybe

2006	Vince Young	Titans	68.8%	57.3%	22	32	4,964	1	0	probably
2006	Matt Leinart	Cardinals	71.7%	55.8%	14	17	3,458	0	0	maybe
2006	Jay Cutler	Broncos	87.1%	62.5%	54	37	9,024	1	0	no

2007	JaMarcus Russell	Raiders	73.9%	53.9%	15	12	2,796	0	0	maybe
2007	Brady Quinn	Browns	65.8%	49.5%	2	2	563	0	0	maybe

2008	Matt Ryan	Falcons	87.7%	61.1%	16	11	3,440	0	0	no
2008	Joe Flacco	Ravens	80.3%	60.0%	14	12	2,971	0	0	maybe

2009	Matt Stafford	Lions								?
2009	Mark Sanchez	Jets								?
2009	Josh Freeman	Buccaneers								?

After analyzing this list, if you do the math, you come up with a success rate of about 35%. THIRTY-FIVE PERCENT! I don't know about you, but if someone told me that there was a 35% chance my $20 million dollars (or more) would be thrown in the garbage, I think I'd keep it in my pocket. Of course, we should look at the amount of success quarterbacks selected in the later rounds have before we can do a valid comparison of how much of a bargain it would be.

But the truth is that some GMs are willing to put their money in the pot and bet it all in case he does turn into the next Peyton Manning. Hey, it worked for Bill Polian right?

Best Drafters

1. Colts - Bert Jones, John Elway, and Peyton Manning. Nuff Said

2. Falcons - If you don't count Michael Vick as a bust (which I did), then they have a success rate of 75%.

Worst Drafters

1. Bengals - The Bengals have ~~wasted~~ selected a QB in the first round of the draft FOUR times since 1970, with only Carson Palmer being worth the investment.

2. Lions - All three first round QBs have floundered in Detroit. Let's hope Stafford can change their luck.

Other Interesting Observations

The LA/St. Louis Rams have never selected a QB in the first round.
The Detroit Lions have misfired on every first round QB selection. Statistically speaking, Matt Stafford has to be their successful QB, right?
First round QBs don't have much luck in Ohio. Between the Bengals and the Browns, there have been 7 first round QBs drafted since 1970, and so far Carson Palmer is the only one has shown he was worth the investment. (Brady Quinn is still too green to judge).
The Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, and Miami Dolphins have never missed. Troy Aikman, Archie Manning, and Dan Marino remain their only first round QB selections.
I hope the Houston Texans learned their lesson after David Carr, they have two or three more bad picks before they should find success.
The NY Giants selected Phil Simms and Philip Rivers in the first round (and traded Rivers for Eli). They could potentially have two hall of fame first round QBs.
Only 12 of the first round QBs chosen since 1970 have ever played and won in a Super Bowl. That means only 15% will ever help your team win a Super Bowl. I would be interested in seeing if there are any other positions that would contribute more to winning a Super Bowl.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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Comments

The Lions have Bobby Layne to blame for their woes.

In 1958 Bobby told the Lions after being traded to the Steelers that the Lions would “not win for 50 years.”
The curse ends this upcoming year. For a team that went 0-16 last year it would be hard to imagine that they’d win the SB this year…but with their 1st year removed from the curse being the dawn of the Stafford Era could turn out to be an interesting story down the line.

http://www.49ersboard.blogspot.com

by supraman on May 28, 2009 4:47 PM PDT reply actions

I wouldn’t call Daunte Culpepper or Chad Pennington a bust.

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by groug on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PDT reply actions

i second that

or mike vick

Stay calm. I'm a relatively respectable citizen -- a multiple felon, perhaps, but certainly not dangerous

by LosAltosA's on May 28, 2009 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions

I third it

Or Alex Smith, and how is harbaugh not a bust?? if dilfer is?kerry collins?? does not winning a superbowl or getting an MVP make you a bust. As far as bradshaw goes 212 td’s and 210 int’s are bust numbers if you don’t have Franco Harris or the Steele Curtain

M. S. #50

by rlott#42 on May 28, 2009 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions

fourth it

i think dilfer is to the team he got drafted from
and cmon who broke the most tds in a season then lost their record
culpepper
just because vick was sent to prison doesnt mean hes a bust and pennington brang his team to a lot of playoff appearances when they needed them

by big beaner on May 28, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I’m pretty sure Dilfer made a pro bowl with Tampa. Even if he didn’t I’m not sure that I’d call him a bust. Culpepper is certainly not a bust. Kerry Collins wasn’t a bust with the Panthers.

Rafael Rodriguez: Your number 8 organizational prospect before stepping a foot on American soil and has "looked just super so far," according to Felipe Alou. "He has some bat speed and the ball comes off the bat pretty well" - K.Law.

by BrianBokake on May 28, 2009 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Differences in opinions

Granted that we are all going to have differences in opinion, but individual quarterback’s was not the point of the story, more just the overall jist of things.

We are all going to think different people were busts or not. But I was more looking at the overall consistency of production/games played, and playoff success.

Former New Orleans Saints RB George Rogers
"I want to rush for 1,000 or 1,500 yards, whichever comes first"

by stuart0908 on Jun 1, 2009 6:21 AM PDT up reply actions

Stats don't lie

good article. The point you make is not new but is well worth bringing up. I went to high school with Jim Plunkitt ( James Lick high 1966). Lick was undefeated that year and I know he was going to be a great one. To bad we didn’t learn our lesson after Jim Druckenmiller other wise we wouldn’t have to go through the pain of the Alex Smith / Trent Dilfer saga.

by WC-Ninerhead on May 28, 2009 6:06 PM PDT reply actions

That's not fair......

On face value, at the time, Alex was statisticaly the best QB available to us in that Draft. Plus, no one else wanted to trade us down for the #1 overall pick. So your point, although nicely stated and nostalgic, is sorta off base.

K.C.Edwards -AKA- "THE" DarkkStarr

by DarkkStarr1 on May 29, 2009 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Smith would hae been there in the 2nd round

M. S. #50

by rlott#42 on May 29, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Not quite.

If I’m not mistaken, Maiocco and/or Barrows have stated that there was at least one front office person (of a team that picked somewhere just after the 49ers did that season) that said they would have taken Smith had the 49ers passed.

by sfgfan on May 29, 2009 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions

I think it was Jon Gruden, then with the Bucs.

But the fact still remains that Smith was a pretty weak QB prospect and one of the worst #1 overall picks ever.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on May 30, 2009 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Worst Ever?

I’ll have to look that one up. If his career ended today he’d be a notable bust, but I think of plenty more picks more notable than him.

by bignerd on May 31, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions

Courtney Brown, maybe.

But really, Smith’s outcome doesn’t look too promising at this point.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jun 1, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm not saying...

… it was a weak pick or not. I’m just saying he wasn’t going to fall as far as many people thought he was going to fall if the 49ers didn’t take him. If the 49ers had taken Rodgers instead, Smith probably would have been taken long before the point where Rodgers actually did get picked.

by sfgfan on Jun 1, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, that's true.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jun 1, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions

For the record, though.

I agree that it was a very weak QB class, especially at the top. I was hoping the 49ers would go against convention (i.e. get your franchise QB first as he takes the longest to develop) and take a WR or an offensive lineman. I was a pretty big fan of Edwards that year, as well as Rolle. Of course, you couldn’t very well take Rolle at #1, though.

Since they decided to go QB, though, Smith was really the only justifiable way to go at #1, even if Rodgers was projected to be more “pro ready.”

by sfgfan on Jun 1, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Happy shinny things

The old sayihg is that “… if it looks to good and sounds to good tthen you shouln’t buy it…” The Niners went for a bag of gold and got somthing else. Just like the forty nines of old “.. ya dig through a pile of rock and dirt and hope you are going to find a nuget of gold….” or in other words like Forest Gump said,( ,, life is like a box of choclotes, ya just never know what you are going to get…." ) or somthing like that.

I would agree that Alex Smith’s carrer is not yet done. He could be a diamond in the rough still waiting for some shinning coach to make him a prince. however what he has done to date in a niner uniform is not accepetable for a team that is looking for a leader that we help them get back to champioship form..

As a wise old once said ( " that is the way it is in river city….")

Go Niners!!!!

by WC-Ninerhead on May 30, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Agreed

And being in the same position the 49ers were in, I probably would’ve taken Alex Smith as well. BUT the point is, look at the situation that they are in now.

Smith is relegated to being a backup who has been overpayed for his play his entire time in the league. Now I’m not saying it’s his fault. Rookie QBs need time to adjust to the pro game (except for rare occasions like Matt Ryan), and the 49ers have changed OCs so often he’s never had the same system to learn for more than 1 year, which definitely hurts his development.

Former New Orleans Saints RB George Rogers
"I want to rush for 1,000 or 1,500 yards, whichever comes first"

by stuart0908 on Jun 1, 2009 6:24 AM PDT up reply actions

I would like to see...

Stats sorted this way would be a bit more interesting
-—Position in Draft/ Size of School/ Performance in League——

by goatfather on May 28, 2009 6:33 PM PDT reply actions

Jeff George, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper, and Mike Vick in my opinion were not busts

Jeff george: 80.4 QB rating and 154 TDs

Daunte Culpeper: 89.0 QB rating 146 TDs 3PBs

Chad Pennington: 90.6 QB rating 101 TDs

Michael Vick: 75.7 QB rating 71 TDs

by ro128487 on May 28, 2009 7:32 PM PDT reply actions

I have to agree

All those guys were not busts. Spotting careers, of course . . . bust no. They all were effective QB’s for at least a couple of years. I’d also add Kerry Collins to this list.

One interesting note not brought up was a few of the guys on the list were a complete bust for the team that drafted them and went onto decent careers with other teams.

by bignerd on May 28, 2009 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Losman lost his job to injury as well as Leftwich

Leftwich may be the comeback player of the year in 09

M. S. #50

by rlott#42 on May 28, 2009 7:49 PM PDT reply actions

I think both are flat out busts

Neither was very good when healthy, IMO.

by bignerd on May 28, 2009 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions

If Leftwich is the comeback player, it won’t be for the team that drafted him. Bust.

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by groug on May 30, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions

By that logic

Drew Brees is a bust?

by SportsChicken on May 31, 2009 12:01 AM PDT up reply actions

Drew Brees played really well his last year in SD. They pushed him out the door for Rivers, than again he stunk it up the first few years which is why they drafted Rivers.

by bignerd on May 31, 2009 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Steve Young:

Bust.

Amirite? He didn’t do sh*t for the Bucs (Or the LA Express, if you want to get technical).

by shlecko on Jun 1, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, I’m not entirely comfortable with my original comment on this.

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by groug on Jun 1, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Steve Bartowski?

Wow… I am offically old now.. you suck!

by Josh G and the Shaun Hill band wagon on May 28, 2009 8:52 PM PDT reply actions

Jim McMahon!

not a bust!

"I'll be honest with you, I love his music, I do, I'm a Michael Bolton fan. For my money, I don't know if it gets any better than when he sings "When a Man Loves a Woman"

by 49erLou on May 28, 2009 9:21 PM PDT reply actions

Nicely done.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on May 28, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Any QB with a satr in a Superbowl win..

..cannot be a bust no mater what.

by Josh G and the Shaun Hill band wagon on May 28, 2009 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Chad Pennington is a bust?

Umwhat?

by shlecko on May 28, 2009 9:25 PM PDT reply actions

kerry collins too

I don’t know if I agree with that. While he’s never been great, 14 season in the league is pretty darn good.

"I'll be honest with you, I love his music, I do, I'm a Michael Bolton fan. For my money, I don't know if it gets any better than when he sings "When a Man Loves a Woman"

by 49erLou on May 28, 2009 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Kerry Collins is the..

..best non starter vet in the league..or wait he is satrting?

by Josh G and the Shaun Hill band wagon on May 28, 2009 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions

He lead the Titans to the league's best record

by bignerd on May 28, 2009 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Jeff Garcia..

..is the best non starting vet in the NFL

by Josh G and the Shaun Hill band wagon on May 28, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions

I had issue with Pennington as well

Jeff George threw for 27,000 yards… I wouldn’t call that a bust.

Daunte Culpepper had one of the single best seasons ever with the Vikings before he got hurt… and he’s still lingering in the league. I wouldn’t call that a bust.

Trent Dilfer is pretty much the model for “managing” a team. I wouldn’t call him a bust.

Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."

by chirop1 on Jun 1, 2009 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions

Actually to slightly correct you...

A first round QB has been a super-bowl winning QB in about 50% of the super bowls since 1970.

Also if you are judging busts by if they have been in a pro bowl or a super bowl, I think you should really change your criteria, especially during the late 80’s and 90’s. Elway, Favre, Marino, Aikman and Montana all were perennial pro bowlers.

I think what is more glaring is that since the salary cap era the rate of first round QB busts went up. I think that back in past NFL years you could pay your way to Super Bowls (i.e. Cowboys) and teams that had major financial support were usually the ones who were successful at picking first round QBs.

U Betta Call Pizza Hut B/C U Just Got Pizowned

by StrictlyFootball on May 29, 2009 12:13 AM PDT reply actions

Total agreement....

In th “Good Ole’ Days”, teams had the luxury of gettint a QB and making him into a decent starter. Once the time came to choose another QB, that new guy would usually sit on the bench and learn from the vet. It was just the way the league was. Now in todays era of salary caps, you can’t really be too sure of what you’re getting. It’s true that picking a starting QB is a crap shoot as there have been more guys like Shuler and Leaf, and fewer like the Manning brothers. Yet, you seem to miss one glaring point…..There are 119 FBCS schools to choose from. And quite frankly,getting a guy to come straight from college to the pros and be an instant success; is like trying to find a needle in a haystack…..without burning the haystack!

But then…..isn’t that one of the reasons we love this game?

K.C.Edwards -AKA- "THE" DarkkStarr

by DarkkStarr1 on May 29, 2009 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions

P.S.:

Loved the article, (although I too have some guys I wouldn’t consider busts), and the attention to detail you put into it. Bravo Zulu.

K.C.Edwards -AKA- "THE" DarkkStarr

by DarkkStarr1 on May 29, 2009 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

1st round QBs are like flipping a coin.

And that’s why I hate the idea of wasting a draft pick and all that guaranteed money on a player who has, at best, a 50/50 chance of being a complete bust. It makes much more sense to draft QBs late and groom them. If they don’t appear to be what the team wants after two years, release him and draft another one.

It would be interesting to see how the bust/success ratio works out for 1st round WRs and RBs, too.

by MontanaPass on May 29, 2009 10:55 AM PDT reply actions

Just think if Matt Millen spent 3 consecutive picks on QB instead of WR the Lions might have already been set.

by bignerd on May 29, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions

If you don't draft...

… players of a certain position because their bust rate is to high, you’ll end up with a team of 53 offensive linemen, running backs, and interior defensive linemen. Every other position has to have a similar “bust” rate as QB, or at least extremely close.

by sfgfan on May 29, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions

Daunte Culpepper a bust?

Really?!? you know he led the league in passing yards the same year peyton manning had 49 TDs, right?

and how the hell is joe flacco a “maybe”? he won two playoff games as a rookie! if matt ryan is already a “no” then so is flacco.

I take full responsibility for my irresponsibility.

by these3words on May 30, 2009 7:43 PM PDT reply actions

Flacco

Had the #2 defense and the #4 ground attack. They also had the most rushing attempts. In the playoffs he threw 1 td and 3 ints. Flacco didn’t win those playoff games. The defense and rushing game won those.

by iaalexeeff on May 30, 2009 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions

thanks for the backup

You guys have to realize this isn’t a science. QBs do not make their own statistics. The players around them make them better or worse, and the defense has a key factor in it. The fact that a quarterback throws 40 times a game isn’t normally because the offense just loves to let him throw touchdowns…Look at the completion percentage is a FAIRLY good estimation of how they are doing, but its not black or white.

It’s usually because they are always trying to play catch-up because their D sucks, or could be that the D is so good that the offense stays on the field for 40 minutes.

Former New Orleans Saints RB George Rogers
"I want to rush for 1,000 or 1,500 yards, whichever comes first"

by stuart0908 on Jun 1, 2009 6:29 AM PDT up reply actions

?

What criteria are you using to determine if a QB was a bust or not? I know several people have already mentioned it, but here’s the people I would take off the bust list: Collins, Dilfer, George, Pennington, Culpepper, and maybe even Wilson. Plus, some of the guys that were considered a success did nothing for the teams that drafted them, but turned it around later in their careers ie (Testaverde, Plunkitt). I would also change Alex Smith to a maybe, or at least a probably. He’s just too young to be called a bust yet. Just look at Testaverde. He stunk in TB. It was only after he left that his career got going. BTW, the QB rating is a score based on several statistics not a %. It is posible to get a QB rating over 100. Having said all that, I really liked the article. I’m a huge numbers geek and I loved having all the numbers in front of me. Great job!

by urnext on Jun 1, 2009 7:43 PM PDT reply actions

Testaverde

Here are Testaverde’s stats (Someone you labeled as not a bust) for the 6 years he played in TB: 52% completion, 77 TD’s, 112 INT’s, 64.5 average QB rating. Those are bust stats by your standards, but he became a very good QB later in his career. Maybe Alex Smith will do the same thing. It’s just too early to tell. Either way, I think we can all agree that TB didn’t get a return on their investment.

by urnext on Jun 1, 2009 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions