QBs Drafted AFTER the first round

by stuart0908 on Jun 2, 2009 6:45 AM PDT

Now that some of you have read my article about the statistics of selecting a QB in the first round, you may have come up with other questions or comments. (and yes I know some of you had very strong feelings about Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper, Kerry Collins, and Michael Vick, etc). I actually thought to myself - Yes, the chance of you getting a great NFL QB are pretty low. Yes the chance of you wasting millions of dollars on someone who will never even contribute to your team is pretty high.

But OH, when those picks do work out, it's a match made in heaven. Not to mention, some of these QBs are the greatest of ALL TIME, which would never have been possible if you didn't select them in the first round, right?

WRONG! I have now put in the time (several hours to be precise) and effort to going through and weeding out all the studs selected after the first round of the NFL drafts. This article will be breaking them down, and hopefully you'll gain a little perspective on how insane it seems to select a QB with lots of question marks in the first round, when there have been a lot of GREAT QBs selected later.

The way I determined whether or not the QB was a good deal or not was determined by his success in the playoffs, consistent performance, and his level of play, similar to how the first round quarterbacks were selected, just not with quite as high of standards. For instance, if a QB had a few good years, but pretty much was never a consistent success, I pretty much did not put them on this list. I tried to be as realistic as possible for statistics sake, and hopefully the people remaining on this list really are the BARGAIN QBs of the Draft.

via cdn2.sbnation.com

Doug Flutie knows what it's like to contribute to an NFL team after being drafted late, but unfortunately he didn't quite make this list.

So without further ado, here is our list of successful QBs selected after the first round since the 1970 merger.

Year	Name	Drafted By	Round	QB Rating	Comp. %	TDs	INTs	Pass Yards	PBs	SB Wins
1971	Ken Anderson	Bengals	3rd	81.9%	59.3%	197	160	32,838	4	0
1971	Lynn Dickey	Oilers	3rd	70.9%	55.9%	141	179	23,322	0	0
1971	Joe Theismann	Dolphins	4th	77.4%	56.7%	160	138	25,206	2	1
1972	Brian Sipe	Browns	13th	74.8%	56.5%	154	149	23,713	1	0
1973	Ron Jaworski	Rams	2nd	72.8%	53.1%	179	164	28,190	1	0
1973	Joe Ferguson	Bills	3rd	68.4%	52.4%	196	209	29,817	0	0
1973	Dan Fouts	Chargers	3rd	80.2%	58.8%	254	242	43,040	6	0
1974	Danny White	Cowboys	3rd	81.7%	59.7%	155	132	21,959	1	1
1975	Steve Grogan	Patriots	5th	69.6%	52.3%	182	208	26,886	0	0
1977	Steve DeBerg	49ers	10th	74.2%	57.2%	196	204	34,241	0	0
1978	Bill Kenney	Dolphins	12th	77.0%	54.7%	105	86	17,277	1	0
1979	Joe Montana	49ers	3rd	92.3%	63.2%	273	139	40,551	8	4
1981	Neil Lomax	Cardinals	2nd	82.7%	57.6%	136	90	22,771	2	0
1984	Boomer Esiason	Bengals	2nd	81.1%	57.0%	247	184	37,920	4	0
1984	Jeff Hostetler	Giants	3rd	80.5%	58.0%	94	71	16,430	1	1
1984	Jay Shroeder	Redskins	3rd	71.7%	50.8%	114	108	20,063	1	1
1984	Warren Moon	Oilers	undrafted	80.9%	58.4%	291	233	49,325	9	0
1985	Randall Cunningham	Eagles	2nd	81.5%	56.6%	207	134	29,979	4	0
1986	Mark Rypien	Redskins	6th	78.9%	56.1%	115	97	18,473	2	1
1987	Rich Gannon	Patriots	4th	84.7%	60.2%	180	104	28,743	4	0
1987	Steve Beuerlein	Raiders	4th	80.3%	56.9%	147	112	24,046	1	0
1988	Chris Chandler	Colts	3rd	79.1%	58.1%	170	146	28,484	2	0
1988	Stan Humphries	Redskins	6th	75.8%	56.9%	89	84	17,191	0	0
1990	Neil O'Donnell	Steelers	3rd	81.8%	57.8%	120	68	21,690	1	0
1990	Scott Mitchell	Dolphins	4th	75.3%	55.5%	95	81	15,690	0	0
1991	Brett Favre	Falcons	2nd	85.4%	61.6%	464	310	65,127	10	1
1992	Jeff Blake	Jets	6th	78.0%	56.4%	134	99	21,711	1	0
1992	Brad Johnson	Vikings	9th	82.5%	61.7%	166	122	29,054	2	1
1993	Mark Brunell	Packers	5th	84.2%	59.6%	182	106	31,826	3	0
1993	Elvis Grbac	49ers	8th	79.6%	59.1%	99	81	16,775	1	0
1993	Trent Green	Chargers	8th	86.0%	60.6%	162	114	28,475	2	0
1994	Gus Frerotte	Redskins	7th	74.2%	54.7%	114	106	21,291	1	0
1997	Jake Plummer	Cardinals	2nd	74.6%	57.1%	161	161	29,253	1	0
1998	Brian Griese	Broncos	3rd	82.7%	62.7%	119	99	19,440	1	0
1998	Matt Hasselbeck	Packers	6th	84.5%	60.1%	147	94	23,549	3	0
1998	Kurt Warner	Rams	undrafted	93.8%	65.4%	182	114	28,591	4	1
1999	Aaron Brooks	Packers	4th	78.5%	56.5%	123	92	20,261	0	0
1999	Jeff Garcia	49ers	undrafted	87.5%	61.6%	161	83	25,537	4	0
1999	Jake Delhomme	Saints	undrafted	85.1%	59.7%	115	76	17,877	1	0
2000	Marc Bulger	Saints	6th	85.6%	62.6%	117	87	21,345	2	0
2000	Tom Brady	Patriots	6th	92.9%	63.0%	197	86	26,446	4	3
2001	Drew Brees	Chargers	2nd	89.4%	63.9%	168	99	26,258	3	0
2001	Sage Rosenfels	Redskins	4th	81.2%	62.5%	30	29	4,156	0	0
2002	David Garrard	Jaguars	4th	85.4%	61.2%	51	29	9,672	0	0
2002	Shaun Hill	Vikings	undrafted	90.5%	64.0%	18	9	2,547	0	0
2004	Matt Schaub	Falcons	3rd	86.2%	63.5%	30	25	6,317	0	0
2004	Tony Romo	Cowboys	undrafted	94.7%	63.6%	81	46	10,562	2	0
2005	Kyle Orton	Bears	4th	71.1%	55.3%	30	27	5,319	0	0
2005	Derek Anderson	Ravens	6th	75.1%	54.6%	43	35	6,195	1	0
2005	Matt Cassel	Patriots	7th	88.2%	62.9%	23	13	3,946	0	0
2007	Trent Edwards	Bills	3rd	79.1%	61.6%	18	18	4,329	0	0
2008	Chad Henne	Dolphins	2nd	74.0%	58.3%	0	0	67	0	0

After looking at this list, I was really AMAZED at the amount of high quality quarterbacks that were not drafted in the first round. Everyone knows about the obvious picks - Tom Brady in the 6th round (because we're reminded of it about 50 times a season. But there are 3 hall of fame quarterbacks from this list, and there are several more that probably should be in the hall of fame (Ken Anderson and Randall Cunningham), as well as one of the greatest to ever play this game (Brett Favre).

The surprising thing to me is the amount of talent that is left over after the draft has settled. Warren Moon was undrafted (yes, I know it's because everyone was afraid to have a black QB, but still) and so were Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia and Tony Romo and several others who have been a big reason their teams have been successful.

Combined, 10 QBs selected after the first round have helped their teams win a Super Bowl. Yes, you may be thinking well of course, the sheer number of players selected after the first round is so numerous, of course you're going to have good players selected. That's my point EXACTLY. We need to stop guaranteeing QBs who have never even taken a snap in the NFL 40 million dollars! It's rediculous when so many quality quarterbacks have been taken later and been so successful. If you ask me, there is just too much pressure of being selected in the first round.

Getting down to it, if you do the math, and not including some of the younger QBs who really haven't proven themselves yet, these QBs have a success rate of about 20%. I was a little surprised, but this number is lower than the success rate of first round quarterbacks. Of course, these selections comes with a higher risk, but the reward seems to be higher too. The successful quarterbacks from this list have combined for 101 pro bowl appearances and 15 Super Bowl wins. Are you kidding me!? That's more than the first round selections!

My point being is that teams who seek a quarterback for their team should do their research, and really dig deep and look at later round quarterbacks, you never know which one is going to shine, and they are going to cost you a lot less money too.

BREAKING DOWN THE DRAFTED QBs BY ROUND

2nd round -15%

3rd round - 25%

4th round - 15%

5th round -4%

6th round -13%

7th round -4%

later than 7th - 12%

undrafted - 12%

OTHER OBSERVATIONS

Only 7 nfl drafts have never produced a successful quarterback from later rounds.
The six undrafted QBs on this list have combined for a total of 848 touchdown passes and a QB rating of 88.8%, which is higher than most nfl QBs ever see.
6 quarterbacks were drafted in the 8th round of the nfl draft or later
Joe Montana, nuff said.
Many of these QBs end up playing for a different team than they were drafted by.
The Redskins have drafted 5 of the QBs from this list
The Patriots, Dolphins, and 49ers all have selected 4 QBs from this list. You can tell who uses my philosophy.
The Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans, and Detroit Lions have none from this list. Could this be why the Lions have never had much success with QBs?
The Bengals drafted two of the best quarterbacks of all time after the first round. Maybe they should stick to this instead of continually ~~wasting~~ using their first round picks on quarterbacks.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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Comments

Young?

You could also have included Steve Young. Yes, I know their’s a good chance he would have been drafted in the first round had he chosen to go to the NFL instead of USFL, but he didn’t. BTW, the QB rating is a number based on several QB stats. It’s not a %. It is posible to get a QB rating over 100. A perfect score is 158.3. In 2004 Manning completed the season with a score of 121.1. The highest career score is Steve Young’s 96.8. I also wanted to say, great post! I love looking at all the stats.

by urnext on Jun 2, 2009 7:42 AM PDT reply actions

I also noticed you seem to have included players successful on this list that would have been considered a bust on your other list. Is that based on lower expectations of a QB chosen in later rounds? Do you have a criteria for deciding who’s a bust or not, or is it just a gut impression?

by urnext on Jun 2, 2009 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions

No statistical formula

I just based this on a general consensus of people I spoke with about the QBs. There is always going to be some variance, but the jist is the same. And yes, these QBs were held to lower expectations based on value from their draft position, rather than comparing them to first round pick expectations.

Former New Orleans Saints RB George Rogers
"I want to rush for 1,000 or 1,500 yards, whichever comes first"

by stuart0908 on Jun 2, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions

this means nothing

…until you include all the quarterbacks that didn’t make it for comparison. i’m almost positive the first round has a higher success rate than everything else. especially if you want to include undrafted players.

I take full responsibility for my irresponsibility.

by these3words on Jun 2, 2009 8:39 AM PDT reply actions

You’re focusing too much on the specific statistical measurements. This article was supposed to be just a general inquiry into who has performed admirably and who has not based on their draft position. If you want to focus on the deeper meaning, then by all means do that, or feel free to use statistical probability simulators.

As for me, I’ll just enjoy the information that was presented as an interesting observation.. Geez.

Former New Orleans Saints RB George Rogers
"I want to rush for 1,000 or 1,500 yards, whichever comes first"

by stuart0908 on Jun 2, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions

Not really ...

There’s an apples-to-oranges comparison being made here. You can either compare a list of successful late round quaterbacks to a list of successful first-round quaterbacks, or you can compare the rate of succcess of first round quaterbacks to the rate of success of late round quaterbacks.

The argument made in the other post was that, since a first-round QB has only a 35% chance of success (aproximately) that they’re not worth the money. And the point of this article is that it’s worth drafting later quaterbacks because some of them are successful.

But what if a first-round quaterback has a 35% chance of success, but a late-round quaterback has a .5% chance of success? In other words, you’d have to draft 70 of those guys to have the same chance of success you have taking somebody in the first round. All of a sudden that $40m starts to seem like a good deal, because, quite frankly, even if you draft 7 QBs a year you still wouldn’t expect to have found your QB in ten years. Is $40m a worthwhile gambit to save your franchise ten years of searching?

I don’t understand where the 20% figure quoted in this article comes from. If 20% of the QBs taken in the late round are successful, and 35% takenin the first round are successful, then drafting QBs late is a no-brainer. But it all depends on making a fair comparison, with the same definition of success. Given that there seem to be about 10 QBs drafted outside the first round or so every year, that 20% number seems very high.

by Ronaldinho on Jun 2, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Maybe my math was wrong

But I went through and counted up all QBs drafted since 1970, and the 20% was the calculation I came up with a QB being considered “successful” if drafted after the first round.

Anyone wanna go back and double check my math?

Former New Orleans Saints RB George Rogers
"I want to rush for 1,000 or 1,500 yards, whichever comes first"

by stuart0908 on Jun 2, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions

The issue is

you threw 6 undrafted QBs into the mix. If you are going to uses undrafted QBs that succeeded, then you must use undrafted QBs that didn’t (didn’t succeed, but at one time or another made a team’s roster). That is obviously a large undertaking, one I wouldn’t expect anyone — not even Florida Danny — to attempt, but without which the exact success rate cannot be computed.

The easy solution would be to drop the 6 undrafted, which would drop the success rate down to about 17.5% (assuming a 260 total drafted QBs which I think is somewhere about what you used).

As far as the conclusion of which is better, I think the process should be handled on a more individual, case-by-case basis. Maybe this is a better indication of team’s drafting styles under different regimes, which highlight who was better at choosing QBs. I don’t know. I’m not enough of a statistician to wrap data like this up neatly into some sort of summary that makes sense.

by Sebaz49 on Jun 2, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions

We also need to come up with a definition of "success."

and it has to be consistent between the two groups.

And that’s a problem. If you include people like Stan Humphries and Scott Mitchell, Sage Rosenfels, and Aaron Brooks on the list – but those guys would be considered failures if they were taken with a top pick. Matt Schaub, Shaun Hill …

If you define success as making a pro bowl or starting in a super bowl, I’m not crazy about it because then Trent Dilfer is a successful QB.

And Sebaz is right, too, that if you include undrafted QBs, then you have to include guys signed to a roster as UDFAs in the denominator.

by Ronaldinho on Jun 2, 2009 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Findding a good quarterback

One thing I’ve learned, it’s not worth drafting a quarterback early in the draft, that hasn’t had a full college career as a starting quarterback.

by bmcrae83@yahoo.com on Jun 3, 2009 6:19 PM PDT reply actions

I would add, "in a system that translates to the pros."

Both articles simply reinforce my belief that the QB position is the most difficult to evaluate because of the amount of decision-making that this player does. But the fact that the percentage of 1st round successes is not that much better than QBs taken in later rounds (35% vs 20%), indicates the prudent approach would be to find a QB evaluator/coach who has a good track record and let them find the good prospects in later rounds. If a particular selection doesn’t appear to be working out, cutting him won’t saddle the team with dead money for the next five years – just draft another one. Me? I’d draft a QB every two years whether he’s needed or not, looking for that one SuperJoe amongst the crowd of Druckenmillers.

by MontanaPass on Jun 5, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions