The future is bright/ The future is dim
by 9erguy on Jun 21, 2009 2:59 AM PDT
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PrintBased on the depth and number of comments in response to my last fan post, I think it is safe to say that there are a number of differing opinions about what the benefits and risks associated with acquiring Brandon Marshall. After looking through most of the comments, I believe that the majority of opinions on here are influenced by how one looks at our chances for winning this season and our prospects for the future.
Old and busted: Defense Wins Championships. New Hotness: Wide receivers Win Championships
Those that believe that we didn't make any major moves to improve our team during the off-season see a team that will be lucky to match last year's record. These individuals seem to be saying that we need to stop being picky and take a risk. They believe a major superstar, ala Brandon Marshall or even Anquan Boldin, will open up our run game and give us a threat in the red-zone. The skeptics also are not sold on the potential our current receiving corp nor are they thrilled about our quarterback situation. These sentiments are not baseless but I believe that they miss several points.
One of the best counterarguments I seen that were against trading for a superstar wide receiver note the fact that having a volatile but game-breaking wide-out hasn't led to the big show. Examples included the Cowboys (T.O and Roy Williams) and the Patriots (Moss). Instead, teams like the Titans did well without having a big name receiver. Another strong point took note of how the Redskins have took major risks in acquiring top free agents with little success to show for it. In addition, quite a few of you echoed my feelings about having other positions that are in more dire need of upgrading. Some of the more optimistic fans also feel that the young recievers the 49ers currently have the potential to be just as good. While I'm not quite as sold on our current crop, I think most of us are content to wait and see given the risks associated with going after Marshall.
I don't even think the majority of us against the trade are opposed to the trade because of his issues (though it doesn't help) but because the price is too high. Having 2 first rounders allows us to go either gamble and acquire the number 1 pick or try our luck at having two first rounders; with odds that at least one of them will grade out as a star. Furthermore, I think this year will either show that we have a serviceable quarterback or that we need to get someone else (via trade or in the draft). Somehow, I feel this season in particular will show if we are actually improving or if we need to start taking risks.
Don't hate the player, hate the game
I agree with the comments that suggest that some seem to view managing the team as though it's Madden 09. Though franchise mode in the game is quite involved and has some realistic elements, one thing it cannot take into consideration very well is how a trouble-prone player upsets team chemistry. I mean, in the game, I'm sure you could build a dynasty of a team by the second year. However, teams that have done really well in real life have worked together for years; developing rapport and mutual respect for one another. These very important elements can't be attained through trade or signing some big money guy. I think this is especially true for players on the offensive side of the ball, where timing is very important. Aside from that, I like the game. I used to be in the Top 100 online but slipped to rank 150 (level 20) on Madden '09 on the Wii. I go under Tino on there just in case your feeling like you want to play against me. In the meanwhile, I'm taking wagers as to how long it'll be before I get criticized for playing video games. Atleast I got an excuse for now in that I'm only in my 20's. I don't know what my excuse will be later in life. Maybe you older gamers can provide one for me.
Besides that I think that the ratings for the teams are only loosely associated with how much talent and potential a particular team has. Look at how the Dolphins were rated last year which only goes to show the inconsistency each season brings. Or, how some seen the previously 7-9 Lions (2007) as having playoff potential. Or even the Jaguars. This is why the actual games are played. Why when you look at the schedule and see a good team, you can't assume that they will continue at the level. Conversely, when you see a really bad team lined up, you can't assume a win. This is why I have hope for the 49ers. They do have a "tough" schedule right now. However, who knows how those teams will really stack up once the season plays itself out. The NFC West has always been up for grabs. From 2001-2008, you have the Rams, 49ers, Seahawks and Cardinals winning the division. If we can stay healthy at key positions, other teams WILL have key injuries that dramatically diminish their possiblity of winning. Maybe I'm delusional, but I see something positive coming from this season.
Hey hey ho ho, JTO had to go
Many fanposts have commenters going after one another with little agreement about anything. Though I think we can all unite under the banner of disliking JTO (insert favorite insult). I also don't sense much love for former offensive coordinator Mike Martz either. Between the two, they did seem to create a lot of turnovers. If the number approachs similar levels this year, one wonders who the scapegoat will be this time. Maybe, just maybe, the offensive line will have to be looked at and improved. Anyhow, let us hope for the best and expect the worse. Go Niners!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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Too many options on the poll?
Just wondering what you guys think about the options on the poll.
I think the poll could use some more options.
Marshall could benefit us, however we need to re-sign Willis long term and make a splash in FA next year. Merriman, Peppers, Suggs, and the draft has some good players and the Panthers will be a 4 to 6 win team!!
M. S. #50
The Panthers are a 10 to 15 win team.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 21, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Meh.
7 to 11 wins. This is the NFL, afterall.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
Sure.
But 4-6 makes no sense at all.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 21, 2009 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Well...
I wouldn’t have seen the Packers, Jags or Browns finishing 2008 with 4-6 wins last year, but that happened. Nor would I have ever predicted the Falcons and Dolphins winning 11. Strange things happen in the NFL.
Wait, why am I arguing this? I agree: 4-6 wins out of the Panthers seems very unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely and very foolish to assume.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
John Fox's teams have run hot and cold (though never 4-6 wins cold)
Since 2002, the Panthers have had 3 seasons of 11 or 12 wins and 4 seasons of 7 or 8 wins, and without a lot of roster turnover (Delhomme arrived 2003, S.Smith in 2002 and Williams in 2006 and Peppers has been there since 2002). They’ve never followed up a 10+ win season with another in the same category. Interesting.
Morgan breaks through in 2009!
All 3 of those teams suffered some pretty crucial injuries.
Unless the same happens to the Panthers, it’s really hard to envision them doing that bad with that much talent on the roster.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 22, 2009 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Sans Peppers
Carolina’s defense could be suspect.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Jun 22, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Not really.
They had an elite pass defense and lost only one player from it (Ken Lucas) who was considered the weakest player on that side of the ball.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 27, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes really
Their run defense is horrible.
And over the past 2 years they have done nothing to improve it.
Carolina will get owned by a team with a powerful running game (see: NYG vs. CAR 2008)
by SportsChicken on Jun 27, 2009 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions
They were missing a starting defensive tackle and I think a linebacker left the game with an injury.
And that game sort of made their rush defense look worse than it was in reality.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 28, 2009 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions
And rush-defense is the least important aspect to winning,
while pass-defense ranks among the top.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 28, 2009 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Excuse me?
run defense is not important?
So I guess that’s why the Colts beat the Chargers with such ease in the playoffs last year right?……
Get your facts straight dude their run defense was wimpy all year (20th)….and they have done nothing to improve it.
by SportsChicken on Jun 28, 2009 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions
::Sigh::. Read this:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/07/what-makes-teams-win-3.html
Summary: “A team built around run defense is accentuating the least important single aspect of winning”
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 29, 2009 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not going to read that article.
So since run defense is not important the Vikings must be really stupid.
Dude, everything is important in the NFL, you can’t have major holes……The colts are a PERFECT example.
by SportsChicken on Jun 29, 2009 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I think that the point being made is that...
being able to stop the run, while important, is not nearly as much so as being able to score points or defend the pass.
If you want to build a strong championship contender, you start in other places and address the run defense as needed.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
Because the Vikings are such an elite team and all.
They’ve consistently been one of the the top rushing defenses for several years and have a single playoff appearance to show for it. They wouldn’t have even made the playoffs had Gus Frerotting not came and provided recognizable QB play.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 30, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
That's not the point.
The idea is that no team can go into MIN (or NYG or PIT) and rely on their running game to win them the game.
Like Warren Sapp once said, (not his exact words) If I can take down your running game then we can force you to pass almost every down which could lead to turnovers.
Either way, I’m not exactly saying Run defense is the most important aspect in football….I’m just saying that it is a key component to a defense’s success.
I was merely trying to point out that Carolina’s run defense is weak and there are many teams that can take advantage of that weakness.
by SportsChicken on Jun 30, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions
…we can force you to pass almost every down which could lead to turnovers.
Or, if the team doesn’t suck, it could lead to points.
Since many teams prefer to pass anyway, I don’t see how that’s beneficial to your gameplan at all.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
So they have to keep passing in the 4th quarter?
Dude you’re not really understanding what I’m getting at.
The other guy was ridiculously undervaluing the importance of stopping the run.
I think all aspects of defense are important and for a defense to be good it needs to be good in all of those aspects.
by SportsChicken on Jul 1, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions
You admitted to not wanting to read the article linked above, which is unfortunate.
If you had, you’d have seen that, statistically speaking, run defense is indeed tremendously overvalued.
The relative importance of each aspect of the game begins to come into focus. Passing is most important, followed by turnovers, then penalties and running. For every aspect, the correlation on the offensive side of the ball is stronger than on the defensive side.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
I'm still not reading it.
(Because my eyes are tired and this is a pointless argument)
I was just saying that a team with a terrible run defense can be exploited by certain teams.
by SportsChicken on Jul 1, 2009 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions
The point is that a team’s ability to stop the run ranks lowest amongst factors that co-relate to a winning record.
If a team is average in all aspects of the game, but spectacular against stopping the run…they will likely still finish 8-8 in a well rounded division. However, if a team is average in all aspects of the game, but instead excels in passing offense or defending the pass, that team is much more likely to go 9-7 or even 10-6.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
I disagree with those statistics.
Anyone who has ever played football can tell you having a strong running game opens up the pass by means of having to honor the run, opening up the field when they stack guys in the box, honoring the play-action fake, controlling the clock/TOP, etc. A strong running game helps a team out in intangible ways
by WeHaveCrabsAndVD on Jul 2, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Well...
… the opposite is true, too. In New England and Indianapolis, for example, they use the pass to set up the run because the defense has to “honor” the pass by either playing the DBs (and LBs) back more, or even taking away a linebacker or two, thus weakening the defensive unit in the box.
By the way, using the “anyone who has ever played football should know…” argument is pretty ridiculous.
Have you played football at a semi-pro level?
If you haven’t then you really don’t know whether that argument is ridiculous.
I have only played football with friends at the park and such, so I wouldn’t know.
by SportsChicken on Jul 6, 2009 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Ridiculous
It’s ridiculous to assume that just because someone hasn’t played that they know less. Yes, there are things you can pick up from experience of playing, but those same things can be picked up by being an study of the game.
why is it that former players typically become coaches? because playing in the field, you know what needs to be done, and the technique to do it. You know what you can ask of your players, and the theory and strategy behind it. When I was playing football, my coaches would ask me what I saw on the field, because even though they call the plays, they still find useful things in the looks the denfense/offense gives. Just studying the game tapes or looking from the coaches booth doesn’t give this perspective.
by WeHaveCrabsAndVD on Jul 7, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Most...
… of the NFL’s better coaching minds hardly had successful careers, if you can even call them careers. Example: Bill Belichick barely had a college career, let alone playing any at the Pro level. He is regarded as probably one of the best coaching minds in today’s NFL (if not the best), and will most definitely go down as one of the best coaching minds in the history of the game.
While I definitely understand there are things you can pick up from playing, I just think it’s wrong to think that someone who didn’t play can’t pick the same thing up.
Lucas AND Peppers
You do no what sans means right? If not, this is what was meant, “Without Peppers Carolina’s defense could be suspect”. This sparked you to say that Carolina only lost Lucas while my statement was contingent on them not having Peppers, their most dominant aspect of their pass defense, as well. Peppers has a huge impact on that defense.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Jun 29, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
My mistake.
But there’s really no indication that Julius Peppers won’t be playing for the Panthers next season. He signed the franchise tender, said he’s going to show up to all team events and training camp, and is now open to hammering out a long-term contract with Carolina.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 30, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Check your dates
My original comment was on June 22, 2009 which was 3 days before Peppers signed his tender.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Jun 30, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Alright, I apologize.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 30, 2009 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions
all we know for sure about the panthers record next year
is that it won’t include a zero, unless it also includes a 6 and a 1.
don’t think about that too hard. if you have to, you’ll probably just hurt yourself.
I take full responsibility for my irresponsibility.
"If we can stay healthy at key positions, other teams WILL have key injuries that dramatically diminish their possiblity of winning. "
Umm….I…uh…what?
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
Mike Martz hate is not personal
However could Nolan have picked a worse match for his offensive personnel? He’s got a grind it out, run the ball team and he turns the reigns over to big play, pass happy Martz. Having Martz just didn’t make one iota of sense.
It's not like the line is filled with big mauling road-graders.
The only personnel I see that shows a ‘run the ball team’ is a fantastic RB and a great set of blocking TEs, but that’s about it.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 21, 2009 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not so much the fact that we were built to run last year...
so much as it was that we were so clearly NOT built for the pass. With the lack of a competent QB and a craptastic group of WRs, Martz’s offense never really had a chance.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
From that perspective it makes sense. Good point
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 22, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I disagree
With a few maulers on the line. Just about everyone is young, but playing the power run game probably suits there talent better than any other style.
Maybe Chilo Rachal, but none of the other linemen are especially physical in that regard.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 22, 2009 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Well
The Niners’ adjusted line yards from FO were 8th in the league, meaning the line did something right when it came to the run. The overall rushing offense wasn’t very successful, but that is attributed to Martz’s offense and lack of a true FB (welcome back Moran, boy did we miss ya).
As a side note, the Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals were 28th-30th, respectively, in adjusted line yards.
If our run offense improves with Raye and our sack numbers drop due to no JTO and less 7 step drops, the OL might be seen in a better light after next year.
Martz's selection
It seems like Nolan picked Martz (rather than Cam Cameron, for example) because he knew the guy, figured he could work with him and because both of them were desparate. Too bad the JTO situation brought out the absolute worst in Martz AND Nolan—Martz’s arrogance mixed with Nolan’s good-guy/stay-the-course spineless-ness. I wanted to like both guys so much.
Morgan breaks through in 2009!
It's not hiring Jimmy Raye II was some stroke of genius on Singletary's part.
He’s been out of work for years for a reason, and even Scott Linehan was a better choice in Singletary’s view, but lost him to Detroit.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jun 27, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
The Mike Johnson hire was pretty awesome though.
He has play calling experience and should take over for Raye in a couple of years.
by SportsChicken on Jun 27, 2009 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
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