Running Back Distribution
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 1, 2009 1:07 PM PDT
51 comments
In this fanpost, I'm going to look at Running Back Distribution of the top 6 teams in 2008 number of rush attempts, compared to the bottom 6 teams with fewest rush attempts. The NFL's top rushing team, the New York Giants aren't on the list. They had 502 carries, for 2518 as a team, at an impressive 5.0 ypc.
Overall the top 6 teams (in rush attempts) feature pretty damn good running backs, or very good systems. Most of the top 6 also had very good defensive teams, which definitely helps inflate rush attempts (as do the number of wins). These teams dominated trench play on both sides of the ball. New England just missed the playoffs, and had a very good rush attack despite the platoon. In 2009 I'd like to see Frank Gore and Glen Coffee's number of carries similar to Carolina's in 2008, with slightly more carries going Frank's way.
The NFL's top passing team, the New Orleans Saints, finished with 7th fewest rush attempts (398), totaling 1594 yards (4.0 ypc, 20 TDs, 103 First Downs). Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler were quarterbacks of three of the teams in the bottom 6. When a team has a QB of that caliber, its hard to push for more rush attempts. The Colts and Cardinals both made the playoffs, and the Broncos just missed out. The Chiefs struggled with identity for parts of 2008, and the Lions stunk, hence the low numbers of attempts from those poor teams. These two teams didn't have a platoon of runners, they just had to play catch-up far too often to register a lot of carries.
The Top 6
1. 592 attempts - The Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens finished 4th in the NFL in rushing yards (2376), and finished with an 11-5 record, good enough to secure an AFC Wild-Card Berth. Baltimore had a mixed bagged of runners, lead by Le'Ron McLain's 232 carries. Willis McGahee had 170 carries and rookie Ray Rice netted 107. The team averaged 4.0 ypc, with 20 rushing TDs and earned 132 first downs via the run.
2. 560 attempts - The Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta was second in the NFL in rushing, with 2443 yards total, and won an NFC Wild-Card at 11-5. Michael Turner received a bulk of the carries, leading the team with 372 attempts. Jerious Norwood provided a nice change of pace, with his 95 carries, while Matt Ryan scrambled 55 times. The Falcons averaged 4.4 ypc, with 23 rushing TDs and 131 first downs.
3. 519 attempts - The Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson led the NFL in rushing, and the Vikings finished 5th in the NFL with 2332 yards. The team won the NFC North at 10-6, led by Peterson's 363 carries. Chester Taylor had 101 attempts, the only other significant rusher on the team. Minnesota averaged 4.5 ypc, with a total of 15 TDs and earned 119 first downs.
4. 513 attempts - The New England Patriots: We all know the Patriots just missed the playoffs in 2008, finished 11-5 and second in the AFC East. The team was 6th in the NFL in rushing with 2278 total yards. The Patriots featured numerous runners: Sammy Morris (156 carries), Kevin Faulk (83), LaMont Jordan (80), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (74), and Matt Cassel (73). The Pats averaged 4.4 ypc, with 21 TDs and 145 first downs. Damn you Belichick.
5. 508 attempts - The Tennessee Titans: The Old Oilers finished 7th in the NFL in rushing yards, with 2199 total. The explosive tandem of Chris Johnson and LenDale White led the way, as Johnson garnered 251 carries to White's 200. The Titans won the AFC South at 13-3, averaged 4.3 ypc, totaling 24 TDs (most in the AFC) with 108 first downs.
6. 504 attempts - The Carolina Panthers: The Panthers had an awesome combo of runners, and finished 3rd in the NFL with 2437 yards. DeAngelo Williams carried the ball 273 times, while his rookie counter part, Jonathan Stewart, rushed 184 times. The Panthers led the NFL with 30 rushing TDs, averaged 4.8 ypc, with 118 first downs, all while winning the NFC South at 12-4.
The Bottom 6
32. 340 attempts - The Arizona Cardinals: The NFC's Super Bowl representative (9-7, NFC West Champs) finished last in the league attempts and yards (1178). The Cardinals relied heavily on Kurt Warner's arm, and not the running back's legs. Tim Hightower ran the ball 143 times, and Edgerrin James had 133 carries. The Cards finished 2008 with 3.5 ypc, 14 TDs and 72 first downs. Three Cardinal WRs went over 1000 yards (Fitz, Q and Breaston).
31. 352 attempts - The Detroit Lions: A team in 2008 that struggled, were the 0-16 Lions (understatement of the week nominee). The Lions rushed the second fewest amount of times, and ran for the third fewest, with 1332 yards. Kevin Smith was a bright spot, rushing 238 times; Rudi Johnson ran the rock 76 times. Detroit averaged 3.8 ypc, totaled 10 TDs and earned 70 first downs. Gross.
30. 370 attempts - The Indianapolis Colts: The other playoff team from the bottom six, Indianapolis was an AFC Wild-Card at 12-4. Joseph Addai struggled, and carried 155 times, while Dominic Rhodes had 152 carries. The Colts had the fewest rushing yards in the AFC, with 1278 (3.4 ypc, 14 TDs, 80 First Downs). Peyton Manning's arm was the driving force behind Indianapolis' season, as four Colts receivers had over 600 yards.
29. 379 attempts - The Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs were a team with many struggles in 2008, finishing 2-14. Kansas City actually didn't have terrible rushing numbers, finishing 16th in the NFL with 1810 yards (4.8 ypc, 9 TDs, 94 First Downs). Larry Johnson ran 193 times, Jamaal Charles carried 67 times and Tyler Thigpen scrambled 62 times. KC became a spread offense as the season grew on (Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe went over 1000 yards receiving), hence the low rush attempts.
28. 387 attempts - The Denver Broncos: For the few amount of times the Broncos ran the ball, the team finished 12th in the NFL in yards, with 1862 (4.8 ypc, 15 TDs, 103 First Downs). Denver had a lot of injuries in the backfield, and therefore had quite a few different ball carriers. Michael Pittman (76), Peyton Hills (68), Selvin Young (61), Tatum Bell (44), and Andre Hall (35) all carried the ball for the Broncos. Jay Cutler ran 57 times, quarterbacking the AFC's No. 1 passing offense. Denver finished 8-8, mostly in part to horrific defense.
27. 397 attempts - The San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers were 27th rushing in the NFL, finishing with 1599 yards(4.0 ypc, 10 TDs, 83 First Downs). Frank Gore, the team's prominent runner, only carried the ball 240 times. DeShaun Foster had 74 carries, and JTO (yes, I said it) had 30 carries (with 29 fumbles*). Luckily Mike Nolan and Mike Martz are no longer with the organization. Mike Singletary promises a smash mouth style run game, adding Jimmy Raye as Offensive shot-caller. The 49ers finished 2008 7-9.
* - joke, it was only 11.
(all stats via sports.yahoo.com)
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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Coffee in 2009
Clearly the Niners need to run the ball more and you’re right, that will change with Singletary and Raye. I think that rookie Glen Coffee will surprise alot of people and have a huge season with Gore and Robinson.
T.O. Estes III
by T.O.E. on Jul 3, 2009 10:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
they not only need to run more
in order to do so they need to dominate the trenches more.
I think Coffee has the chance to have an impact immediately, so I agree that he may have a big season.
I’d like to see Coffee get about 140 carries, 600 yards, and 5 TDs.
I’d prefer Gore to offset those numbers with 300 carries, 1500 yards, and 10 TDs.
In this system, it can happen.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 3, 2009 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They should be better prepared this season since Martz doesn’t have the line working on getting vertical quicker to protect the QB.
The numbers you have for Coffee and Gore are right where the Niners need to them to be and add about 50-100 carries accounting for qb scrambles, Michael Robinson and Moran Norris, they should easily be in the top 5 of this list next season.
T.O. Estes III
by T.O.E. on Jul 3, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
10 TDs for Gore?
He’s not really a TD guy though.
by chikmagnet_565 on Jul 3, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Gore can score some where in between 12-15 TDS total next season. With the fullback Norris healthy to lead block and other backs to take the pressure off of Gore, he will stay fresh and score more TDS, including more long TD runs.
T.O. Estes III
by T.O.E. on Jul 3, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he's factoring in receiving TDs.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 3, 2009 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't consider that.
10 TDs (rec. and rush) are pretty good numbers for Gore.
by chikmagnet_565 on Jul 5, 2009 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
any starting RB
should be able to get 10 TDs. that’s not a lot.
20 is a lot, 15 is a good amount. 10 should be required.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 3, 2009 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What?
More like… 10 is very good, 15 is spectacular, and 20 is a Hall of Fame candidate’s career year.
Keep in mind that Frank Gore has never scored 10 TDs in any season – the closest he’s ever been was 2006, when he scored 8. To say that “any starting RB should be able to get 10 TDs” is a little bit ridiculous.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
by shlecko on Jul 4, 2009 2:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
10 TDs should be the benchmark. I’m talking combined here (sorry for the confusion). Gore has had 9 and 8 in a season before, so 1 more isn’t that much.
I don’t think 10 TDs is asking a lot, its hardly more than 1 every 2 games.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 4, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not really a redzone guy though.
10 TDs would be pretty good from Gore.
15 would be spectacular though…..
by chikmagnet_565 on Jul 5, 2009 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think 15 TDs
is spectacular, I think its excellent though.
10 Total TDs from Gore isn’t asking a lot.
We have to be able to rely on Frank carrying the offense a fair amount, and I’m ok with that. 15 from Gore would be well above expectations, certainly.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 5, 2009 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Problem is...
… Gore just can’t seem to get into the endzone running the ball from inside the redzone. That whole issue is the whole reason why the 49ers wanted a “physical” back that could take some of his carries away.
by sfgfan on Jul 6, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like I said
Gore has scored 9 and 8 TDs in a season already, so asking for 1-2 more TDs from the guy isn’t asking for that much.
Gore had an issue with fumbling around the goal line, and fumbling in general, which hurts his redzone effectiveness.
Still, a running back that touches the ball as often as Frank does, can put up 10 TDs in a season.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 6, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This makes me miss Shaun Alexander a whole lot more.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 6, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
600 yards and 5 scores for Coffee is a bit optimistic.
Unless Gore misses significant time, it would take a miracle for him to post those kinds of numbers in spot work.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
by shlecko on Jul 3, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it wouldn't be spot work
it would be a rotation. like the carolina backfield.
that’s how I’d like to see the 49ers distribute carries, with a slightly higher ratio favouring Gore’s touches.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 3, 2009 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if we find out in preseason that Coffee isn't very good?
Or even that he’s only good in limited time? He was already a surprise to be taken as high as the third round – and his weaknesses are obvious even without having seen him play a down in the NFL.
Usually, if you’re going to have a complete rotation, it means that you’ve either got two really good backs (as is the case in Carolina and Tennessee) or a bunch of nobodies with no established starter. We don’t fit either of those descriptions.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
by shlecko on Jul 4, 2009 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's true
There is a huge battle for the second RB spot on the Niners depth chart between Michael Robinson, Glen Coffee, Thomas Clayton and/or another back that’s on the roster.
That competition will bring out the best in all the players, so who ever is on the field should do a pretty good job.
T.O. Estes III
by T.O.E. on Jul 4, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glenn Coffee
will rise above Robinson, and cost Clayton a roster spot.
I could be jumping the gun, yes, but I’m predicting Coffee an instant success.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 4, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jumping the gun
yes you are.
And Robinson isn’t really competing for playing time at RB, I’d rather see him catch passes out of the FB spot.
by chikmagnet_565 on Jul 5, 2009 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rookie RBs
have a tendency to have an immediate impact. That’s why I’m banking on Coffee, and also because he’ll be providing the alternate punch out of the back field opposite Frank Gore.
I don’t think Clayton will beat out Coffee for the number 2 role, and he’ll be giving his walking papers. It is jumping the gun, yes, but its not a far jump.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 5, 2009 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh.
The backs that have made immediate impacts in their rookie years over the last couple seasons have all been similar to each other: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steve Slaton – these guys are all fast-as-hell, shifty backs.
Glenn Coffee isn’t anything like those backs, so I find it hard to see why you’d assume success from him based on those players.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
by shlecko on Jul 5, 2009 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
difference of opinion
you can continue to take a crap on my Glenn Coffee expectations, and I’ll be gladly telling you “I told you so” at the end of 2009.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 5, 2009 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't "taking a crap" on your expectations...
I was searching for logic within them. When I found none, I provided an explanation as to why your reasoning for such a bold prediction seems baseless and unrealistic. But whatever.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
by shlecko on Jul 6, 2009 3:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
again difference of opinion
and when 2009 is over, I’ll be right, and you’ll be wrong.
Glen Coffee will have instant success.
We have a new run game installed, and drafted Coffee to give Gore a bit of break and rotate out.
What other logic do I need? I believe our team drafted the right guy to have immediate success spelling Gore. What other reasoning do I need?
What, the fact that Michael Robinson and Thomas Clayton are on the roster? Is that what should concern me?
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 6, 2009 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
chill
and when 2009 is over, I’ll be right, and you’ll be wrong.
We’d all like for this to be true, but sometimes things just don’t work out.
by chikmagnet_565 on Jul 6, 2009 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've already given it to Coffee
and I don’t care that he hasn’t played a down. Coffee is a hard-nosed grinder, and he comes from the SEC. I don’t need proof that he’ll produce at this level because of those two pieces of information.
Do you really think Michael Robinson is going to hold off Coffee for the number 2 role?
Further more, you’re convinced that Thomas Clayton is the answer as Gore’s back up?
I see Robinson a 3rd down guy, and Clayton on the waiver wire come week 3 of the preseason, especially since we have Kory Sheets in the mix.
Jonathan Stewart was a rookie last year in Carolina, and he had huge questions heading into the season with his foot recovering from surgery. He panned out pretty good. I have faith in Coffee being exactly what Singletary is looking for.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 4, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clayton?
I never said Thomas Clayton will be the back-up to Gore.
What I did say was I believe that who ever earns the 2nd will be prepared to run the ball 100-150 times this season and run it successfully.
T.O. Estes III
by T.O.E. on Jul 4, 2009 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry T.O.E.
I know the post appears after yours, but I was replying to schlecko with this comment.
I was implying I thought you were banking on Clayton.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 4, 2009 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sheets
i want to see this guy get at least a solid chance to make an impact, watching his viedo highlights he reminds me of chris johnson.
by pwarren85 on Jul 5, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sheets
I’ve got no beef with Sheets getting a shot. There’s an undrafted FA darling once and awhile.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 5, 2009 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct.
Coffee has that SEC SPEED!
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 6, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
600 yards may be optimistic...
… but I wouldn’t be surprised if Coffee’s TD numbers are close to Gore’s.
by sfgfan on Jul 6, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you on that
if Gore and Coffee each end up with 8 TDs a piece (total TDs), I’d be totally ok with that.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 6, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Coffee vs Sheets?
We don’t really have any idea how either of them will work out in the pros, but there is definitely a contrast in running styles here. Coffee is a one-cut power runner, period. Less shifty than Gore with unknown vision. His style is more upright than Gore’s, which leads to questions about effectiveness – can he get those extra yards Frank seems to squeeze out of his runs when he pops out of the pile into the secondary? We just don’t know yet. Does he have good hands? We don’t know about that, either, since he didn’t do a lot of receiving in college. I see him as maybe a short-yardage specialist who can take the pounding for Gore, at first, anyway.
What about Kory Sheets? He’s extremely elusive and quick, which may earn him a spot as a kick returner, maybe even replacing Rossum. With his speed, he could give the team a legitimate outside running threat to complement Frank’s inside game. He’s supposedly a good receiver, too, which would be helpful.
If I had to choose only one player, and was choosing on the basis of potential contribution, Sheets would be the guy. But I suspect both make the team and Clayton is the odd man out. As pwarren85 mentioned, the very impressive Titans combo of Chris Johnson and LenDale White comes to mind. Is there a need for M. Robinson if both Sheets and Coffee make the roster, especially if both are solid ST contributors?
Top RB in ’09? Adrian Petersen. The Vikes drafted mammoth RT Phil Loadholt (6-8, 343lb) to roadgrade for Petersen and they will be unstoppable.
by MontanaPass on Jul 6, 2009 11:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Top RB in 09
Agreed. Peterson. He’ll be the top rushing back in the league for many years, health permitting.
I like Kory Sheets too, and Coffee does have some upright running issues. Tom Rathman should be able to teach how to run with power, without being so upright. Remember, Rathman wants his group of RBs to be the toughest group on the team. I have faith that Rathman will get the most he can out of Coffee from day one.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 6, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kory Sheets
I feel he was a steal for us at the running back position. I believe he will start returning kick offs beside rossum or maybe even be the main man for punt returns. he has tremendous speed and his jooks are so severe it makes cornerbacks and safeties quiver lol. Heck, we may have ourselves a triple threat at the running back position =). If our line plays to their full potential and the new FB Brit Miller and or Moran Norris step up to their full potential than shoot maybe we can have a 2500-3000 yd running season
by StevenC on Jul 9, 2009 4:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Gore Sheets Coffee and Robinson
all prone fumblers.
It’s becoming more and more obvious that “The Annexation of Puerto Rico” may someday be reborn.
by supraman on Jul 10, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Gartrell Johnson
never fumbled once in his college career, not even a single fumble. I’m not just talking fumbles lost.
Damn you San Diego for taking Gartrell in the 4th round! Although we took Coffee in round 3, so I doubt we would’ve taken Gartrell. Damn it.
I’m not letting it go until the regular season begins.
We lost 16 fumbles as a team last season. That’s freakin’ ridiculous.
Here's to Joe Perry, all-time leading rusher for the 49ers.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 10, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What makes it even worse
is that Gartrell was/is willing to play fullback if I remember correctly.
by supraman on Jul 10, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Has Jacob Hester has already firmly established himself as a bust?
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 12, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is Hester a true FB?
I know the Chargers used him a lot as a short yardage ball carrier last year and I believe he had little success in that department. I’ve never really seen him as a lead blocker type FB. Also I think Mike Tolbert saw the field more than Hester last year. So in short, most likely.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Jul 13, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't mean to be hypocritical to my own complaints...
But the majority of our fumbles came from the QB position last year. Shaun Hill and JTO combined for 19 fumbles, while Gore and Foster only had 8.
Fewer 7-step drops should cut down on that mark quite a bit.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
by shlecko on Jul 10, 2009 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
JTO
Breaking down the fumbles lost:
JTO – 6 FL
Gore – 3 FL
Hill – 2 FL
VD, Foster, Keasey, Robinson – 1 FL
JTO is gone, so is Foster. That’s almost half our lost fumbles, off the roster in 2009.
It would be nice to have a guy, that when he carries the ball, the last worry on your mind is fumbling. We don’t have a guy like that, yet. But yes, the majority of the team’s woes fumblitis wise was on the QBs.
Here's to Joe Perry, all-time leading rusher for the 49ers.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 12, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This cannot be rec'd enough.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 12, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
jooks
joos
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 12, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Be careful
If the Niners runs an avg of 30 carries per game, Gore should get 20 of them. I see Coffee with 5 and most of them within the 10 yd line .Norris may get 5 carries himself. I can see Gore close to 10 tds, but Coffee geting 8/10 tds, I don’t think so. I believe the ratio of running to receiving TDs is 2 to 1.That = to 15 to 30 TDs That’s 2.8125 TDs per game .Add 2 FGs per game and you have an avg. score per game of 25.6875 pts. Major improvement from last year. I should have posted this comment on Fooches other site for most outragous comments.
by LASVEGASNINER on Jul 11, 2009 10:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
15 to 30 means
15 rush TD to 30 TD receiving
by LASVEGASNINER on Jul 11, 2009 10:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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