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49ers 2009 Schedule: Favorite, Underdog, or Even

As much as folks love the game of football, a big reason for the NFL's popularity is the ability to gamble on the games.  We all know the real reason they post the injury reports (fantasy usefulness aside).  We all know why ESPN rolls out Hank Goldberg to throw out his predictions.  Combine the potential for winning money with the sport of football and it's a win/win proposition.

We've discussed and will continue to discuss the 49ers 2009 schedule in a variety of different ways.  Last year I came up with an alternative that requires a mix of predictive abilities slightly different than normal: predicting whether the 49ers will be underdogs, favorites or even against each team on their schedule.  Later in the week I'll throw up some betting stats from the 49ers 2008 season, but for now, here's a look at the 2009 schedule.  If I list them as a slight dog or favorite, I'm thinking the spread will be 3 points or less.  A heavy dog or favorite would be a spread of 9 or more points (because it's now more than one possession).  And a reminder that in spreads, the home team automatically gets 3 points.

Week 1 - @ Arizona: Underdog - Coming off a Super Bowl run, the Cardinals are the team to beat in the NFC West.  At the same time, the 49ers have played them quite close lately.  Of course oddsmakers were all over the place last season with Arizona a road 2.5 point favorite week 1 and a home 10 point favorite week 10.  Even with the Arizona firepower, I think the spread ends up around a touchdown.

Week 2 - vs. Seattle: Favorite - Barring a disastrous week 1 (ugly loss) for the 49ers, I think the 49ers are a decent enough favorite.  Seattle is coming off an ugly 2008 and even if they play well week 1, it's too early for oddsmakers to say that Seattle has returned to even decent team status.  If you're convinced Seattle is on the road to recovery, you might get a favorable line to bet on them this week.  Not that I'd bet against San Francisco.

Week 3 - @ Minnesota: Underdog - The first two weeks could swing this into heavy underdog status, but I just don't see that happening.  And of course, if Brett Favre is playing, it'll be interesting to see how oddsmakers factor him in.  Do they respect his past talent, or view him as on his last legs and thus costing the Vikings big time?

Week 4 - vs. St. Louis: Favorite - If the 49ers start off 2-1, this could move into heavy favorite status.  Of course, if Football Outsiders is correct, St. Louis will likely be off to a good start, potentially pushing the line closer.  At this point I'm thinking about a touchdown or so.

Week 5 - vs. Atlanta: Slight Underdog - The Falcons open at home against Miami and Carolina and then go to New England before the bye week.  if Miami shows last season wasn't a fluke, there's a chance Atlanta could be 0-3 at this point.  Even if folks believe in Matt Ryan and think the Falcons are better than the 49ers, I'm not sure how much respect they'd get at 0-3.  I'm thinking they'll be at least 1-2 and giving no more than a field goal to the 49ers.

Consider the jump the 49ers bye week in week 6.  After the jump we move on to week 7 through 17.

Star-divide

Week 7 - @ Houston: Underdog - Houston has a good helping of talent, but as I said, I think this is going to be a really entertaining game.  I think Houston is a 4 or so point favorite, which usually means the oddsmakers don't really know who is going to win this one.  If anybody is more than a 4 or 5 point favorite, go with the dog.

Week 8 - @ Indianapolis: Heavy Underdog - At this point, we should have a good idea of what the 49ers are bringing to the table, which could alter this prediction down a little in the best case scenario.  Even if the 49ers are 4-2 or 5-1, I still think they're at least a touchdown underdog in Indy.  Any worse record and they're double digit dog.

Week 9 - vs. Tennessee: Underdog - Part of this depends on how the Kerry Collins/Vince Young situation handles itself.  I'd imagine Collins is the guy until further notice and he did a solid job leading that team last year.  While this is a winnable game, I wouldn't imagine much gambling respect for the 49ers.

Week 10 - vs. Chicago: Slight Favorite - The Bears added Cutler, which should help them, but they still don't have enough receiver talent around him.  They'll be a tough team but I think the 49ers will be in a position to be getting a little respect at home.

Week 11 - @ Green Bay: Underdog - The Packers will be hosting the 49ers right before Thanksgiving, which means the potential for the frozen tundra.  Since 2006, the Packers have been underdogs in one November/December home game (November 19, 2006 versus New England).

Week 12 - vs. Jacksonville: Favorite - These late 2009 game spreads will obviously be heavily dependent on performance up to this point.  If the 49ers are at or above .500 at this point (which I'm certainly hoping they will be) the only way they're not a favorite at this point is if the Jaguars are rolling along.  If the two teams records are similar, I think the 49ers get the home respect.

Week 13 - @ Seattle: Slight Underdog - I think this could be between 3 and 5 point, so closer to Underdog than slight underdog.  Of course, if the 49ers season is in the tank at this point and Seattle is playing well, it could be upwards of 7 or 8 points.

Week 14 - vs. Arizona: Slight Favorite - The 49ers won't get a lot of respect heading into this game.  At the same time, getting the 3 points at home means I think they end up a point or two favorite.  There's a good chance this could come down to a pick 'em.

Week 15 - @ Philadelphia: Underdog - It's possible this moves up to heavy underdog if Philly is playing well.  The Eagles aren't going anywhere this season and I think will end up in the playoffs.  A possible playoff preview?  Should I put down the hard liquor now?

Week 16 - vs. Detroit: Heavy Favorite - If things go like I'm thinking, the 49ers will likely be around 7-7 at this point, fighting for their playoff lives with two favorable matchups remaining.  Detroit will have long since been eliminated, even with Matt Stafford starting.

Week 17 - @ St. Louis: Favorite - As I can't buy into FO's prediction of potential Rams success, I'm riding the fence a bit on this.  I'm thinking at least a touchdown, but potentially upwards of heavy favorite if things are rolling just right.

As I've indicated repeatedly, so much, if not all, of this depends on how the team is performing.  Even week 1 is dependent on potential injuries and whatnot over the coming month and a half.  Of course, that didn't stop me from throwing out my predictions anyways.  If you think I'm way off on any of these (which is entirely possible), feel free to throw out your suggestions.  Do we have any big time gamblers here who want to throw out their 2 cents?  Feel free.

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If the Niners are 7-7 heading into the final two games of the season, with Detroit and St. Louis standing in the way of 9 wins, the team better get 9 effin’ wins.

Looking at the schedule more and more, makes it hard to predict anything better than 8 wins.

Which game vs. St. Louis is in St. Louis? You have them both as vs. neither with the @

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 20, 2009 8:41 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The first one

is home, second in St Louis. I agree right now i’m also at 9-7, but would that be enough to win the division? I can’t remember off the top of my head what the cardinals record was last year, but i’m sure that it wasn’t much better than 9-7. Do you think the niners have a good chance of sweeping the division?

by sundaysfinest on Jul 20, 2009 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It

was exactly 9-7. Should of been 8-8 and we the Niners should of been 8-8 but that 1 play and that 1 yard killed us…..Thx Mike Martz

by Stosh on Jul 20, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Technically

it was 3 yards… but who’s counting? :-D

Blind devotion.

by ProfessorBigelow on Jul 20, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Last year...

Arizona went 9-7, and swept the division. This is why it was so insane that they did so well in the playoffs; 2/3rds of their wins came within the division, outside of the NFC West they went 3-7. Even if the MNF game went the way it should (Frank Gore running the ball for a TD), and everything else stayed the same, they (the Cards) would have made the playoffs, since that MNF “win” would have given us a 4-2 division record, while the Cards would have had a 5-1 NFC West record (Division Record is the second tie breaker, after head-to-head record).

Sucks to suck…

Blind devotion.

by ProfessorBigelow on Jul 20, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the Niners sweep the division

9-7 should be enough to win the West, but sweeping the division is going to take a lot.

Can they do it? I don’t know, but 4-2 in the division isn’t asking too much. As long as we sweep the Rams, we should split with Zona and Seattle. Although, we generally either sweep or get swept by Arizona (since 2004), and I believe its our turn to bring the brooms.

What I really hope for this season is the 49ers to put together a solid effort from game 1 to game 16. No slides, or slumps or QB quandaries, just a consistent 16 game effort.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 20, 2009 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

totally agree.

I have gone on record on the Bold prediction post as 11-5. however I am also a realist as well. so 9-7 should win the div. and get us into the play offs. A solid 16 game season would with any truama or drama would be great..

by WC-Ninerhead on Jul 20, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

in 2003

the niners lost at least one game to each division opponent. since then, they have swept exactly one other NFC West team per year:

2004: Arizona (only two wins of the year)
2005: St. Louis
2006: Seattle
2007: Arizona
2008: St. Louis

so apparently its the Seahawks turn this year. hopefully hell doesn’t freeze over and we sweep the rams too, or else we really don’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyway.

I take full responsibility for my irresponsibility.

by these3words on Jul 20, 2009 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is for sure,

but I don’t think hell has to freeze over to get the job done. They really need to win the div out right to be considered a "legitimate" play off team . I truely want to sweep the Hawks and Cards. If we can get that done then we have achieved our goal.

by WC-Ninerhead on Jul 20, 2009 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well I think that "on any given Sunday"

is at work here and although I would love to see the Niners sweep the div. realistically someone is going to surprise us. So I’m thinking that the rams may be the fly in the ointment per say (them being the underdogs and all).. We shall see,, we shall see..

Untill then

GO !!!!! NINERS!!!!!!!

by WC-Ninerhead on Jul 20, 2009 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you have it about right and I would err on the side of caution because best case scenario is not taking injuries into account. I think this team is 8-8 best case with this tough schedule. Minn, Atlanta, G Bay and Chi all tough games and that AFC schedule is a potential 1-3. Philly will be hard to beat. I think there is no way any NFC West team will sweep the division, so likely 2 49er losses there. I have predicted 6-10 on other Niner message bds. Good analysis. Don

by djwilliamsisu on Jul 20, 2009 9:49 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Schedule predictions

I liked the idea of this post before reading and then as reading realized that you are completely right, each of these predictions will only be more accurate after the season starts and we see maybe 2 or 3 games, then we’ll have a better idea 49ers are onto a 10-6 or 6-10 season.

I propose for a future post like this, you can have 2 separate sections, the idea is the same but in one if the team will be playing at or above winning expectations, and the 2nd section if something goes wrong and the team isn’t playing well. But then I think all of these predictions would be affected by the same potentials of the opponent teams (so then there could be 4 separate sections:)…).

by fortyniners on Jul 20, 2009 11:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

9-7 is reasonable

4-2 in division, 1-4 against playoff teams and 4-1 against the rest. Now, the factor could be Minn. and Phil. They have a chance winning theses two games. Last year they did look good for the First half. So, 9-7 or 10-6 is reasonable. That is if they win 4 games in the Div. Long shot win could be Indy due to losses with OC, DC and Harrison. Heck, anything could happen right now.

by LASVEGASNINER on Jul 20, 2009 11:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Am I the only one....

….That thinks the MIN game shouldn’t be too hard to win?

I think that this game tells us what kind of team we are rooting for.

by chikmagnet_565 on Jul 20, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does a certain signing the Vikes are set to make this week

… make it more or less difficult to win? Arguably more, because he’s one of the greatest QBS ever. Arguably less because he’s 40 and has a busted arm.

by LondonNiner on Jul 20, 2009 1:10 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Even with a gimpy arm

he is dangerous… But still I see this game as a W for the niners..

by WC-Ninerhead on Jul 20, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He could be 60 and have two busted arms

He’d still be better than Rosenfels and Jackson. Farve easily makes the Vikings better.

by Brendan Scolari on Jul 20, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm more worried about the Williams Wall..

If they get suspended I’ll feel worlds better about this game even if Favre does come back.

by Mullester on Jul 20, 2009 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

good post

i dont see anything here i disagree with. being favored in all 3 home division games plus the game in St. Louis but underdogs in Arizona and Seattle sounds about right.

I take full responsibility for my irresponsibility.

by these3words on Jul 20, 2009 6:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

before.....

This should have been done before PB and Fooch did their schedule break down. It’s obvious BOTH of those guys were being more than generous with our win/loss record. If you just go based on whether we are favorites or not we are a 7-9 team. So basically we never lose when we are favorites and we have 2-3 upsets to get Fooch and PB’s record. That’s mighty optimistic…..

by hudd07 on Jul 20, 2009 8:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

favorite/underdog

If you add in those slight underdogs the total is 9. You lose 2 of those 9 and win 2 of the regular upsets, you’re at 9 wins. Not saying it’s going to happen, but certainly in the realm of possibility…at least I think so.

by Fooch on Jul 20, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm here to gripe about Seattle, as usual!

Week 2 – There’s almost no chance the 49ers are the favorites in this game. If I’m not mistaken, the Seahawks were slightly favored last season AT San Francisco and that was with Seneca Wallace and the all-backup offense taking the field. The Seahawks will probably be favored based solely on the virtue of having their starters back.

Week 13 – Seattle is almost always a heavy favorite at home regardless of opponent.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jul 20, 2009 8:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think people are sleeping on SEA...

This season. Well, the fans here are a different story, but a lot of people think SEA wins the division this season, with SF maybe a close second.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Jul 20, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hell, I actually think the Cardinals are still the team to beat.

They’ve done nothing to actually get worse, and have only improved. But after reading FootballOutsiders’ predictions, I’m a bit more wary. I’d be happy if the Seahawks reached .500, but at least there’s optimism that they are going to surpass that.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jul 20, 2009 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Warner gets hurt

they’re screwed.

Go 49ers

by iaalexeeff on Jul 20, 2009 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right, but they've got some balls if they're going out predicting injuries.

Assuming everyone is healthy there’s no reason the Cardinals should be even close to 5-11

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jul 20, 2009 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that's true for most teams with a pretty good starting QB

(that’s significantly better than the backup QB).

The Vikings and Niners aren’t going to lose as much production as the Colts or the Steelers if their starting QBs go down.

by ninjasocks on Jul 22, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the Cards

are still the team beat, because they are defending West Champs, and like you said, they didn’t really get worse.

they have question marks, but every team does. new co-ordinators in Arizona could be the wild card factor in Zona falling off though.

and I’m not sure Seattle will be the favourites, it all depends on how week 1 shapes up, but I think right now the Niners would be -3 in the line (yeah, that’s practically being the underdog at home, but still).

Of course, Seattle hosts St. Louis in week 1, so we’ll probably be seeing a 1-0 Seattle team play an 0-1 San Francisco team, so the table will be set for a possible Seattle line. We’ll see how it shakes out, and the game should be fun to watch to say the very least.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 20, 2009 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

While the Cards aren't necessarily getting worse

Their competition should definitely be tougher and they will have had a shorter offseason to recover. They also had an exceptionally lucky injury situation last year (fewest players on IR in the league, I think) that may not repeat.

That said, I think their run game and their defense will probably improve.

by ninjasocks on Jul 22, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the cardinals

They’ve done nothing to actually get worse

they lost their offensive coordinater.

I take full responsibility for my irresponsibility.

by these3words on Jul 22, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Haley is nothing special as

the chiefs are about to find out. Rumors I hear was Whiz was going to let Haley go before the post season run and was still considering it after the SB. The chiefs helped the cards out by taking him. Whiz is going to take over the play calling. Cards also fired the defensive coordinator, a hire of Denny Green, to bring in another Whiz guy. I see both steps as improvements to the coaching staff.

by Drullin'OverDaCards on Jul 23, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just for kicks..

Here are the over/under odds from Vegas:

9/13/2009 San Francisco 49ers regular season wins

653 Over 7 reg season wins -165

654 Under 7 reg season wins +145

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Jul 20, 2009 10:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

over at -165?

that’s a tough freakin’ bet to make.

and the reward for under certainly isn’t signficant.

that’s a difficult bet either way you look at it.

lay any money on it drummer?

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 20, 2009 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nah...

I blew so much on Parlay cards back in the day, and it made my Sunday’s suck trying to cover. I knew a guy whose habit was so bad that he had to go over to a buddy’s house to watch a game, because he had his cable cut off, and then pawned his TV. My gambling on Sundays now is whether the game is worth watching, or just going out and have fun outside during the mild season. Needless to say, my choices as a die hard 49ers fan have been as bad as my picks trying to enjoy Sundays.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Jul 20, 2009 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

gambling

More to come on this topic tomorrow around lunch time (pacific time).

by Fooch on Jul 20, 2009 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jeebus Fooch...

Between all your other endeavors, you still manage to keep this blog active with all kinds of articles. This blog truly must be a labor of love for you, to post another article before lunch.

That’s why I read this blog, because you put a lot of yourself into it. Props.

Never underestimate the resiliency of youth.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Jul 20, 2009 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

youth

I’m turning 30 August 12. Hopefully there isn’t some magic switch that kills that resiliency!

I’ll be honest about the posting, we have an ability to schedule posts, so for stuff like that where there isn’t an immediate time constraint, I can write them up ahead of time. I wrote both of today’s articles last night after work.

It’s interesting, but I ran into a guy who works at Bleacher Report (executive person) over the weekend and he was surprised when I told him I try and get 2 or 3 posts up each day during the offseason. I think that’s one big boon for SB Nation as a whole. I know all our football sites do a good job keeping active. Given that the beat writers take vacations and whatnot in the offseason it is definitely helpful.

by Fooch on Jul 21, 2009 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

significance of 7-8-9

I feel that we will have a record with either 7, 8 or 9 wins. Not very significant, because it’s pretty realistic for us to have that many wins. What I’m worried about is how OUR team “the 49ers” will react to weeks 7-8-9. There is a good chance we will lose all 3. We play away in Houston than away in Indianapolis than home against the Titans. I would be happy just to come out of those weeks with 1 win, but if we don’t I hope it doesn’t affect our guys’ morale.

49ers to win division yay lol

by StevenC on Jul 20, 2009 11:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Bye week

Atleast before those 7-8-9 games we are coming off a bye week. Not sure on what the league average winning percentage numbers are (?) on winning a game after coming off a bye week, but that might increase our chances of preparing extra for Houston winning that one as an underdog.

The 13-14-15 games might be the most important of any 3 game stretch. Any of those 3 games might go either way based on majority of our predictions so far, but I think that is important because hopefully around that time before those games we will be somewhere around 0.500 and will need to do good in those games not to drop below 6 losses, and in that scenario build momentum from those 3 games and the final 2 season games before the playoffs.

by fortyniners on Jul 21, 2009 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Schedual

The Niners should end up 11-5 or 10-6
Week 1 win
Week 2 win
Week 3 loss
week 4 win
week 5 win
week 6 bye
week 7 win
week 8 loss
week 9 loss
week 10 win
week 11 loss
week 12 win
week 13 win
week 14 win
week 15 loss
week 16 win
week 17 win

by 4sure9er on Jul 21, 2009 4:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

So,, I am not alone...

Here is my 11-5 picks

Week 1 win
Week 2 win
Week 3 loss
week 4 win
week 5 win
week 6 bye
week 7 win
week 8 loss
week 9 loss
week 10 win
week 11 win
week 12 loss
week 13 loss
week 14 win
week 15 win
week 16 win
week 17 win

by WC-Ninerhead on Jul 21, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'll play along

Week 1 – @ Arizona: L27-21
Week 2 – vs. Seattle: W19-13
Week 3 – @ Minnesota: W14-10
Week 4 – vs. St. Louis: W38-21
Week 5 – vs. Atlanta: L17-14
Week 7 – @ Houston: L31-23
Week 8 – @ Indianapolis: L35-20
Week 9 – vs. Tennessee: L13-9
Week 10 – vs. Chicago: W13-7
Week 11 – @ Green Bay: W21-13
Week 12 – vs. Jacksonville: W17-3
Week 13 – @ Seattle: L35-21
Week 14 – vs. Arizona: W42-38
Week 15 – @ Philadelphia: L17-13
Week 16 – vs. Detroit: W35-17
Week 17 – @ St. Louis: W24-20

That’s a modest 9-7 prediction. The team would finish 4-2 in division play, and stand a good shot at the division crown. The Points for would be: 344; The Points Allowed: 317. That’s 21.5 pfpg, and 19.8 papg at a +27 differential.

In relation to last season the team had a -42 differential and totaled 339 points, with 381 allowed. In 2008, the Miami Dolphins were 21st in the NFL with at 345 points, and the Steelers 20th with 347. In other words, having a somewhat ordinary offense isn’t a bad thing, if you limit turnovers and play solid defense (The Dolphins had the fewest turnovers and the 9th ranked D, and the Steelers played pretty stout D, finishing the NFL #1 in defense).

Obviously I’m not predicting a high win total (9), but Miami had 317 points allowed in ‘08. In other words, I’m predicting the 49ers to have a top 10 defense, and the 20th rated scoring offense.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i can easily see the season going this way

but my gut still says the niners will take Tennessee.

I take full responsibility for my irresponsibility.

by these3words on Jul 22, 2009 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was wondering

when the koolaid drinkers were going to arrive. Here they are. 11 wins is really unlikely.

by Drullin'OverDaCards on Jul 22, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think...

… the Kool-Aid was spiked, but who knows for sure?

by sfgfan on Jul 22, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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