Michael Crabtree: Early predictions worth more than a grain of salt?

by Fooch on Jul 21, 2009 8:00 AM PDT in News Comment 39 comments

In the 2009 Football Almanac, Football Outsiders put together 2009 predictions of potential wins for each team. On top of that, they put together predictions of 2009 individual statistics for players who played a significant role in 2008, or are expected to play a significant role in 2009. They included an important caveat:

It is difficult to accurately project statistics for a 162-game baseball season, but it is exponentially more difficult to accurately project statistics for a 16-game football season. Consider the listed projections not as a prediction of exact numbers, but as the mean of a range of performances.

The folks at Football Outsiders projected 70 receptions on 110 passes in his direction with 928 yards and 7 touchdowns. Additionally, over at their Twitter page, they asked for predictions from fans. The result: Avg: 52 rec/748 yards/5 TD; Max: 68/1328/10; Min: 35/400/2

Personally, I think a guy like Crabtree is even harder to predict given the fact that he has not been able to practice one bit given his pre-draft foot injury. This puts him behind the curve compared to other rookies, meaning it's possible he could start especially slow.

One reason I bring this up now is because I received an interesting email a few days ago. One of the newer members of our community, 49ers Rule, was kind enough to pass along a bit of analysis he did in regards to Michael Crabtree. 49ers Rule is interested in the stats/numbers side of things and was curious about what the past might tell us about the immediate future of young Mr. Crabtree. Folks have actually made the argument that predictions based on the past are useless. I agree that it takes more than just a look at the past, but when you've got nothing else to work with, it's as good a place to start as any.

49ers Rule decided to take a look at past Biletnikoff winners (award for best college receiver) and #2 overall drafted wide receivers, and then see how they performed in their first NFL season. There is plenty to work with here, just as people can probably find critiques in it. I look at more as an exercise to get folks thinking. Here are some of the answers 49ers Rule came up with:

Since 1994, average stats for Biletnikoff winners who started at least one game: 9 starts, 729.9 yards, 6.5 TD

Since 1996, average stats for 2nd overall wide receiver in NFL draft who started at least one game: 8.2 starts, 592.4 yards, 3.9 TD

The only two players ever before Crabtree to receive the Biletnikoff award AND be the #2 WR taken in the NFL Draft are Terry Glenn in 1996 and Randy Moss in 1998 who averaged: 13 starts, 1222.5 yards, 11.5 TD

He looked at espn.com, yahoo.com, and rotoworld.com, and the average of their predictions for 2009 are: 759.7 yards, 4.9 TD

The raw data is after the jump, along with some of my own additional thoughts.

BIletnikoff Award Winners

Year	Name	Yards	TDs	G/S
2006	Calvin Johnson	756	4	10
2005	Mike Hass (a)	0	0	0
2004	Braylon Edwards	512	3	7
2003	Larry Fitzgerald	780	8	16
2002	Charles Rogers (b)	243	3	5
1999	Troy Walters (c)	0	0	0
2000	Troy Edwards	714	5	6
1998	Randy Moss	1313	17	11
1996	Marcus Harris (d)	0	0	0
1995	Terry Glenn	1132	6	15
1994	Bobby Engram	389	6	2
Average		729.9	6.5	9.0

Average excludes the 3 players that did not play their first year
a) Released before 2006 season
b) Broke collarbone after game 5
c) Did not play first season
d) Did not play in NFL - 7th round pick

2nd Wide Receiver Taken Overall in NFL Draft

Year	Name	Yards	TDs	G/S
2008	Devin Thomas	120	0	1
2007	Ted Ginn	420	2	9
2006	Chad Jackson	152	3	1
2005	Troy Williamson	372	2	3
2004	Roy Williams	817	8	11
2003	Andre Johnson	976	4	16
2002	Ashley Lelie	525	2	1
2001	Koren Robinson	536	1	13
2000	Plaxico Burress	273	0	9
1999	David Boston	473	2	8
1998	Randy Moss	1313	17	11
1997	Yatil Green	0	0	0
1996	Terry Glenn	1132	6	15
Average		592.4	3.9	8.2

While I see some reasons for his optimism, I would have to question things a little bit given the fact that Glenn and Moss and pretty sizable outliers. Maybe Florida Danny can correct me on that. Also, I question not including the 3 players who did not play their first year in the average for the Biletnikoff Award winners.

At the same time, I don't want to be excessively critical of information offered up free of charge! For folks looking to get excited about 2009 Michael Crabtree, this could certainly intrigue folks. As 49ers Rule said in the email to me:

I know statistics can be twisted any way you want, but considering he's not only a two-time winner of the award, and the numbers of the last two people in the same situation, I think predictions are on the low side. Just my opinion though. I would predict more like 900 yards for 8 TD. I think he can get in the endzone every other week. The only other thing that has the potential to derail his production would be a hold-out into training camp leading to injury.

Whether you agree with the analysis presented, it at least gets us thinking about all this. Assuming it's reasonable to make predictions at this point in the offseason for ANY player (a leap of faith for some), I'd like to hear folks thoughts on an issue that has been brought up in part by 49ers writers.

If Michael Crabtree is ready on the first day of training camp (health/contract not issues), will his missed time in OTAs and minicamps cause a slow start?

Personally, I don't think so, or at least not all that much. If Crabtree signs his contract and is in camp on time (which we'll find out soon enough), I think there's more than enough time to work on his routes and get things figured out. Even though he's missed practice time, he's been learning the playbook. Of course, learning the routes on the field is not as easy as in the playbook, so maybe I'm wrong.

Of course, does it even matter given what many 49ers fans think is very solid depth at receiver?

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Crabtree Holdout? Unlikely.

Unless Crabtree wants to seem like the diva that a lot of people paint him as, he’d be best served by getting into camp on time. Eugene Parker, Crabtree’s agent, hasn’t represented a lot of 1st-Rounders who have held out, and if Crabtree’s performance in OTA’s and Minicamp is any indication, he’s a guy who’s itching to get onto the practice field. In the recent article linked above, Maiocco seems to think it’s merely a matter of getting a few other deals finalized.
This would mean that Crabtree gets to go through a full camp, which will set him up for a lot of success in his first year. I think he’ll be good, but 49ers Rule seems a bit optimistic. I’ll be happy if he gets 500yards+ and 6TDs+. Of course those numbers may change if there are injuries to other guys.

Morgan breaks through in 2009!

by grantmp on Jul 21, 2009 8:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope you are right

I would hope that he signs real soon. He was present and accounted for during all the OTA’s and min camps, and appeared to be eager to get started. Unfortunately his involvement in on the field exercises and practice was shall we say “limited” by edict from on high. I don’t have any issue with the coaching staff limiting his work outs to rehab routines and such but at this point he has had such limited involvement with any of the offensive in on the field practice. Even a guy with as much talent as Crabtree purportedly has, he will be behind the curve at training camp, so any delay in signing will further exacerbate his move to the top of the depth chart.

by WC-Ninerhead on Jul 21, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crabtree will

suffice most any 49ers fan if not slightly impress. I doubt he will be explosive from the get go like Randy Moss was, but I do feel that he will not be a bust.

I once did a statistics report for Statistic class in school, on the RB who won the the Heisman and there stats in the NFL… umm, not to well. So I personally do not think any award or necessarily performance in college, a non-pro sport, can truly translate into predicting a range of performance for upcoming rookies. Additionally, one has to consider the team these rookies go to and who they are surrounded by. Glenn and Moss had wonderful teams to start their NFL careers with. Not saying that the 49ers can not provide this for Crabtree… only time will tell.

by danknerd49 on Jul 21, 2009 8:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Texas Tech Bias

As I’ve said numerous times, I follow Texas Tech in college football, and had the pleasure of seeing Michael Crabtree continually beat triple coverage at the NCAA level.

Aside from that, Crab is a dedicated individual that works hard to be as good as he is. He is tough, and can play through pain. I’m sure if he has clearance from the medical staff, he’ll be on the field in time for training camp.

The fact that Crab isn’t represented by the Postons (are they even still allowed to represent players?) or Rosenhaus or Steinberg (wait, I’m thinking Stephen Strasburg now), so there should be no issue with a hold out. We just have to wait for the other top 10 guys to sign, and most importantly DHB’s contract details.

Crab will be in camp when it opens and in the regular season he’ll post these numbers:

55 catches, 800 yards, 6 TDs (reasonable, no?)

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 9:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Rosenhaus

Actually, Rosenhaus is not a big fan of holdouts. He’s always said he’d rather get his guys into camp on time while he works on the deal. And for the most part he gets it done. Also, remember that Frank Gore is represented by Rosenhaus and they easily got a new deal done after his monster year.

by Fooch on Jul 21, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point fooch

sometimes I forget Gore is repped by Rosenhaus.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

“most importantly DHB’s contract details”

Very astute observation. The DHB contract will be the point of comparison for Crabtree’s negotiations. I’d expect that he wants to get just a tick under what DHB gets. If the Niners are willing to give him that much (probably $15-15.5 million) then I think they’ll sign him by the 1st. Here’s hoping.

by Clarkcent on Jul 21, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

DHB contract

I’ve been curious about that because it makes me wonder if maybe he would want more than DHB. I realize Crabtree was drafted after DHB, but most of the free world recognizes he was supposed to go ahead of him. Could be an argument by Crabtree’s agent.

by Fooch on Jul 21, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

article

Not sure where I read it, I think Sando on ESPN or Barrows, but he asked someone what he thought Crabtree would want and they said no way he holds out for more than DHB because it’s not logical. It would be the same as Rodgers holding out for more than Smith because some people thought he should be the #1 pick. Just because “people” think Crab is the better player, he wasn’t the #7 pick and he will be paid like the 10th pick.

by hudd07 on Jul 21, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember reading that too ...

Can’t remember where either. Wasn’t Sando. Either Maiocco or Barrows. I just had a little hunt for it, but couldn’t turn it up. Was a good quote from the agent though. Crabtree won’t hold out, but I’m definitely more excited about Josh Morgan, for this year at least. Although seeing Michael Irvin on Total Access tonight (last night for you guys; we get that show a day behind in UK) made me excited that we have his heir.

by LondonNiner on Jul 21, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just found it ...

… it was Maiocco … and I was wrong, it wasn’t Crabtree’s agent who said it … still a good comment though …

I asked one NFL insider if it Crabtree’s agent, Eugene Parker, could ask for the kind of money the Raiders will give Darrius Heyward-Bey, the No. 7 pick. Because the perception is that Crabtree should’ve been the first receiver selected, could Parker ask for a contract equal to or greater than Heyward-Bey’s?
“No,” the source said. “That’s not logical. If that were the case, Aaron Rodgers should’ve gotten $23.99 million (in 2005).”

by LondonNiner on Jul 21, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Morgan breaks through in 2009!

Yeah, as my avatar indicates, my hope is that Morgan turns out to be the #1 that the Niners have been waiting for. It’d be great if Crabtree moves up the depth chart quickly, but given 1) the history of Rookie WR’s lack of success, and 2) the exacting nature of Jerry Sullivan’s tutelage, I figure it’s more likely that Morgan will be the young wideout we remember from this year.

Morgan breaks through in 2009!

by grantmp on Jul 22, 2009 6:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Postons

took that angle on Kellen Winslow when the Browns drafted him, saying everyone in the NFL had him as the number one pick in the draft. He didn’t go first overall, so he didn’t get paid first overall money, but he demanded it despite that.

Since the Postons don’t represent Crab, I cannot see a scenario where the demands are made on a “but NFL scouts said…”. The fact is, Crabtree was drafted 10th, and was the second guy at his position drafted. It seems highly unlikely Crabtree’s agent would try and negotiate otherwise.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Raiders

The Raiders don’t seem to have much of a problem with holdouts, though, and that makes me wonder.

I think the fact that there are 30 unsigned first-rounders has a lot more to do with Crabtree’s contract than DHB’s…

by daveofferson on Jul 21, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm Optimistic, but the depth chart...

is, well, pretty crowded. He’s going to have to compete with the likes of veteran Isaac Bruce (won’t start by season’s end), emerging youngsters Josh Morgan and Jason Hill, and of course the $5 million man, Brandon Jones (who I hope will be the #2 WR to Crabtree in the years to come). Throw in utility guy Arnaz Battle and you’ve got 6 capable guys competing for 2-3 spots on the field at a time. Tough situation for a rookie. It’s a good thing he’s the MOST TALENTED PLAYER IN THIS YEAR’S DRAFT CLASS!

I think it’s really going to come down to whether or not he gets ample playing time in his rookie season. At this point, I’d say it’s hard to predict his playing time one way or another. This is especially true because Singletary hasn’t commented on Crabtree’s playing time yet, and because Singletary is in his first full year, we have no precident as to his opinions on starting/rotating rookies. My guess is that he will put the best player on the field, and that by midseason that person will be Crabtree (in one of the receiver positions).

If there’s any chance that the time he’s missed so far (OTA’s, minicamp) will affect his performance, it’s probably only because it may hurt the coaches’ confidence in him. I don’t think the missed minicamps are going to have any real affect on his physical/mental preparedness. Being healthy and ready in time for training camp should erase any lost-opportunity. I think.

Do I put much stock in the above statistics? Not really. They were very well thought-out by “49ers Rule”, but in the end I have a hard time making projections based on what other guys have done. If winning the Biletnikoff Award were any kind of true indicator, Marcus Harris would have a wiki article longer than 6 sentences. Nonetheless, I think Crabtree’s consistent dominance in college merits the assumption that he is capable of reaching elite-status. For that reason, here are my own (non-scientific) predictions for his first-season stats: 10 starts, 74 Receptions, 840 yds, 5 TD’s.

You’ll notice that my projection for his avg. yd. per catch is relatively low, and his rec.‘s to TD’s ratio is low. This is because I think he will be used more as a possession receiver this year, getting open often on outs and slants. I know he was a home-run hitter in college, but he won’t have a home-run throwing QB this year (Shaun Hill, mark it down in your programs), and will be utilized in a specific way.

by Clarkcent on Jul 21, 2009 10:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

another thing to note

while Crab was a homer run guy in college, many of those came from turning the short routes into huge gains after the catch. Yes, he can also catch the deep ball (see: vs. Texas), but he does a lot of work with bubble screens to make the most of his YAC ability. He was basically Texas Tech’s best running back and wide receiver, although he never took a snap from the HB position at all. Shaun Hill’s arm almost plays into the strengths of Crab’s game. Just ask newly signed Saskatchewan Roughrider Graham Harrell. Harrell’s arm is about the equivalent of Hill’s.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yahoo Depth Chart

The Yahoo depth chart for the 49ers lists Michael Crabtree as the top strong-side receiver. That makes me giddy with anticipation. Nothing would make me more excited about this upcoming season than to see Crabtree playing well enough to merit the #1 overall receiver moniker. But for now, I think I’d better practice measured skepticism.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/teams/sfo/depthchart

by Clarkcent on Jul 21, 2009 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Defense Of Comments

The logic behind leaving those three players out of the average was that we are trying to project Crabtree’s production if he plays. If something happens to him that he doesn’t play at all in 2009, then this will be moot anyway. =)

Also, if you read about the biletnikoff award selection commitee at http://www.biletnikoffaward.com/selection.htm , these are not small names. This really seems to be the consensus best wide receiver in college football. Plus, Crabtree was selected as a freshman. Out of the other past recipients, the only ones who did not produce for the mostpart had debilitating injuries or major off-field personal issues. It’s not a lock for huge production, but it certainly doesn’t hurt.

by 49ers Rule on Jul 21, 2009 11:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

and furthermore

only Crab has won the award twice.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Of course, does it even matter given what many 49ers fans think is very solid depth at receiver?"

Sweet Christ, of course it matters. Without Crabtree, you’re left with an ancient Isaac Bruce who could go down for good any given week, perennial underachiever Jason Hill, unproven Josh Morgan, and Titans reject Brandon Jones.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jul 21, 2009 12:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

seriously....

Ancient Isaac Bruce could go down but he certainly looked solid last season. And “perennial underachiever” Jason Hill? You do realize that last season was only his second season, correct? I’m not saying he’s the second coming of Jerry Rice, but I’d say that perennial underachiever is a mischaracterization. I understand you’re a Seahawks fan and are here to criticize the 49ers, but once in a while it’s ok to give it a rest.

by Fooch on Jul 21, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Understand that my bias against Hill also stems from the fact I'm a Washington fan as well,

and I hate all things Washington State, which is why I never liked Hill from the start. But even from an objective standpoint, there’s a lot of flaws in his game.

In either case, if the 49ers were actually stacked at WR, they would almost certainly not draft Crabtree considering the plethora of other needs. I’m not saying Bruce isn’t good, but likely being the main 3rd down target on routes over the middle in Raye’s offense doesn’t bode well for his durability. I like Crabtree and all, but I do feel it prudent to point out his success is integral, and it is exceedingly unlikely the WR corps is going to look good to great without him.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jul 21, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

stacked

I agree that the 49ers are not “stacked” at wide receiver. I just think there is some solid talent there. Given how bad the team has been in the past, this is easily the most talent they’ve had in some time. That’s why I said “solid” depth as opposed to amazing depth or incredible depth. There are certainly questions, but there is a good deal of talent in the ranks.

by Fooch on Jul 21, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

stacked

I don’t think anyone claimed the 49ers have a stacked WRs corps in terms of an NFL spectrum. Relative to what we’ve had the past few years, we have a stacked WRs corps. We’ve had to rely on Arnaz Battle for far too many seasons, and finally us fans are at a point where its a possibility we won’t have to rely on him at all.

I’m not saying I dislike Arnaz, and I really would wish him well if he’s cut, it is refreshing to look at the depth chart and see: Bruce, Morgan, Jones, Crabtree, Hill. Bruce, yes, is the aged veteran, but I expect him to take a back seat this season. He wants to win a Super Bowl, that’s the reason he came back. If we have to rely on Bruce to lead the team in receiving we are in trouble. Luckily, the unproven Josh Morgan is ready to arrive, and Jason Hill is entering critical year 3 of an NFL player’s career. At the very least, we’ll have answers.

Michael Crabtree – I’m still amazed he’s on the 49ers – doesn’t have to explode in his rookie season, but its not a stretch to say he could lead the team in receiving. His rookie season is important, and hopefully he develops. Brandon Jones is the un-sexy signing from Tennessee. His name won’t scare people, but I think his speed can. He’s also a trooper, he’ll play every snap if healthy mark it down.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention...

that B. Jones is a superb blocking WR…a perfict fit in the new offensive system.

by NorCal BillsFan on Jul 21, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would agree that even in the best senario

pro-bowl, rookie of the year, best receiver since Rice, are all a bit of a stretch and perhaps more presure than a young man needs. A lot of things on the team need to improve significantly in order for the niners to be sucessfull this year. If he can simply make significant contributions,.be a solid conisistant player, and stay of the IR as a rookie he will have met or exceeded expectations. Not saying he won’t or can’t be “all that”, just saying he doesn’t have to be in order get respect as a 1st round pick.

by WC-Ninerhead on Jul 21, 2009 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Drafting that high in the draft you go BPA ONLY!

We have Frank Gore who is a top 10-15 running back in this league if there was a can’t miss RB in the draft that high, say Adrian Peterson I would like to think we would still draft him.

by Mullester on Jul 21, 2009 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"an ancient Isaac Bruce who could go down for good any given week"

Say what you want about Bruce, but he has a Jerry Rice-like ability to avoid the big hit. In fact, I can’t remember a play on which he really got hit hard. He’s been durable throughout his career, and despite the fact that he’s older, he is still a solid possession receiver with fantastic hands.

Morgan breaks through in 2009!

by grantmp on Jul 22, 2009 6:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's just doesn't know what a tough WR is

Seattle has the biggest pansy corp of WR in the NFL. Coming of his injury last season Burleson is a big question mark while Housh and Branch have never been healthy enough to start 16 regular season games (something Bruce has done 7 times in his career).

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Jul 22, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Geez that sounded pretty harsh and bias!!

I’d hate to hear you talk about D Bracnh

aka Optimist Prime 09...........9ers (site decorum)

by rlott#42 on Jul 24, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

branch

aka Optimist Prime 09...........9ers (site decorum)

by rlott#42 on Jul 24, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

he’ll play every snap if healthy mark it down.

sorry, I missed out on the bold statements thread.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 2:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He

by WC-Ninerhead on Jul 21, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's gotta sign first...

then go through camp and make everyon a " beliver" in order get to play every down.. First thing is sign on the dotted line.. Once that’s done then we will see.. I am for SHOW ME first before I get on the Crabtree bandwagon…

by WC-Ninerhead on Jul 21, 2009 10:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Crabtree and YAC

If Crabtree beats the low end predictions it will be because of his YAC ability. Since as most of you noted he will be fighting for playing time with our new found abundance of receivers, his stats will depend on his abilities to make plays after the catch; Hill will be throwing to him.

However if he makes some of those plays we’ve been looking for early enough he has a chance to put up big numbers and beat out Morgan, but again Hill will be throwing to him.

by goatfather on Jul 22, 2009 8:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Forgot a few award winners...

Not sure why Josh Reed (2001) and Antonio Bryant (2000) were omitted as Biletnikoff award winners, but adding them doesn’t change the average much (708/6/9).

Speaking of AB…I can’t help but think that maybe Singletary could’ve fixed his attitude problem had he been the HC two years earlier. Can’t blame them for cutting him loose, it was the right decision at the time, but I was definitely envious watching him on Tampa Bay last year.

Dude is a beast, I remember seeing him at Browns’ camp the year before he went to SF. He reminded me of a mini-TO, but much more polished. The only thing that wowed me more than him cutting up DB’s better than Northcutt (in his prime at the time) was him hitting the sled. Half the receivers were sitting out, the ones participating were bouncing off like flies, but everytime Antonio came up I thought he was going to break the sled in half. No joke.

But…in the interest of staying on topic, I’m guessing 48/800/6 for Crabtree. I think he’ll start out slow, and slowly gain steam as the season goes on.

by Edge6 on Jul 23, 2009 11:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think he’ll start out slow, and slowly gain steam as the season goes on.

I think that’s the most likely scenario. Not only because most rookies tend to start off slow, but he’ll likely see Morgan, Bruce, and Jones starting in front of him until he shows he’s ready to at least take over the #3 role.

by sfgfan on Jul 23, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs