49ers 2008 Gambling Highlights and Lowlights

by David Fucillo on Jul 21, 2009 1:00 PM PDT in San Francisco 49ers News

As promised yesterday, here is a look at how the 49ers fared as far as casinos and bookies were concerned.

Week	Team	Home/Road	Fav./Dog	Spread	W/L	ATS	Over/Under
1	Arizona	Home	Underdog	+2.5	L	Loss	Under
2	Seattle	Road	Underdog	+6.5	W	Cover	Over
3	Detroit	Home	Favorite	-5	W	Cover	Under
4	New Orleans	Road	Underdog	+5	L	Loss	Under
5	New England	Home	Underdog	+3	L	Loss	Over
6	Philadelphia	Home	Underdog	+5	L	Loss	Over
7	NY Giants	Road	Underdog	+10	L	Loss	Under
8	Seattle	Home	Favorite	-5.5	L	Loss	Over
10	Arizona	Road	Underdog	+10	L	Cover	Over
11	St. Louis	Home	Favorite	-7	W	Cover	Over
12	Dallas	Road	Underdog	+9.5	L	Loss	Over
13	Buffalo	Road	Underdog	+7	W	Cover	Under
14	NY Jets	Home	Underdog	+4.5	W	Cover	Under
15	Miami	Road	Underdog	+5.5	L	Cover	Under
16	St. Louis	Road	Favorite	-3.5	W	Loss	Under
17	Washington	Home	Favorite	-3	W	Push	Over
					7-9	7-8-1

The 49ers ended up favorites in 5 games, 4 of which they won. That's quite an improvement over 2007 when they were favored in only one game. Coincidentally enough, the 49ers final numbers are in a somewhat similar ratio to the 2007 season. In 2007 the 49ers were 5-11, but 5-10-1 against the spread. In 2008 they were 7-9, but 7-8-1 against the spread. Count me among the very limited number of people who are extremely curious if the pattern continues in 2009. I did a quick look at 2006, and the pattern was not there. Actually, it was the last time the 49ers finished with a winning record against the spread. They were 7-9 on the field, but 9-7 against the spread thanks to close losses at Arizona and St. Louis.

For those interested, the 49ers were 3-4-1 ATS at home and 4-4 on the road. They were 3-3 ATS against the division and they were split down the middle when it came to going over or under the total points. Not sure if that surprises me. Given that the offense could be explosive at times, while being truly anemic at others, maybe it shouldn't.

Just out of curiosity (and you certainly don't have to answer this), are many folks into betting on football? No need to reveal bookies. We'll just assume you go to casinos in Vegas to place your wagers. Or actually Oregon, Montana or Delaware as well. If I'm in Las Vegas for a weekend during the football season, it's safe to say that I'll place a few parlays. They're sucker bets, but it makes some of the other games interesting anyways.

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Comments

Fooch

My number one rule when betting:

1. Leave your team alone.

I never bet on or against the 49ers. I leave my heart out of my wager.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 2:00 PM PDT reply actions

I thought the No #1 rule was

Never take a bad QB on the road in the playoff game.

by bignerd on Jul 21, 2009 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions

If that were the case, no one would’ve made any money off of Eli Manning.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Who says people follow the rules?

by sfgfan on Jul 22, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions

well played sir.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 22, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions

good policy

i would add a rule 1b: Leave your team’s rivals alone.

I take full responsibility for my irresponsibility.

by these3words on Jul 21, 2009 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions

for the most part

I agree to that.

Arizona screwed me a few times, most notably the game they were throttled by the Jets.

Sometimes its too easy to pick the team St. Louis is playing though.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 21, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Definitely into gambling on sports games.

The best tip I’ve ever gotten: Don’t lose your money. Follow that and I guarantee you’ll win soem money. ;-)

by Brendan Scolari on Jul 21, 2009 2:58 PM PDT reply actions

not a better

but I do use the odds to help me dominate all you clowns in the NN prediction game

Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis

by wjackalope on Jul 21, 2009 4:33 PM PDT reply actions

Watch out for side bets

suckers who bet # of fumbles, Int and Who scores first. Thoses are the bets you stay away from. keep your bet bets to a minium until later in the season what the cream rises to the top. And, don’t bet with your HEART!!!

by LASVEGASNINER on Jul 22, 2009 7:03 AM PDT up reply actions

Bet against the big fan bases

The spreads get adjusted on the action so your larger market teams like NY get lower lines because a bunch of people are betting on them than smaller market teams who draw less action. Case is point, a couple years when the Yankees were playing the Indians in the playoffs. I took the Indians with Paul Byrd on the mound and almost got 3:1 odds on the 1.5 run spread which I won. Betting has a lot to do with public perception.

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Jul 22, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions

speaking of which

I laid down some money (a fairly large amount) on the Lakers to win Game 5 because I received 2.2:1 odds. So many people just were donating money on Orlando that the Lakers were not only the smart money, but the better money. To say the least, I made a killing off of that game.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 22, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions

Predicition game

I already posted that in the first year of that game I was winning the weeks I participated in my dividing the over/under by 2 and them adjusting each teams scores by the spread. Vegas knows what’s up, these fools that think any team has a 50/50 chance of winning any given game do not.

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Jul 22, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions

can you explain that first sentence better?

I don’t quite follow. clarify mon frere.

by Andrew Davidson on Jul 22, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions

No problem

When we first did the prediction game I wanted to verify how accurate Vegas’ lines were (although my comparison was only against the average NN poster). So I took the over/under and divided it by two, this left me with each team scoring half of all of the total points. I took each team and adjusted their half of the total score by half of the spread. This might be easier if I just give an example.

Seattle -4 @ SF +4
Over/Under: 46 points

Since 46 points is the total amount of points Vegas thinks will be scored in the game I might as well use that number as my total amount of points. Dividing that number by two gives you 23. Since the spread is 4 points, with the Niners being favored in this example, you’d take half of the spread, or half of the 4 points, and add it to 23. This would give you the Niners total score, 25. For Seattle’s score you would use 23 minus their half of the spread, 2 points, and get 21. So my prediction for this game would be Niners 25 and Seattle 21, 4 point spread with the total points adding up to the over/under. For the sake of the experiment I’d didn’t do any adjusting for more realistic “football scores” (ie not likely that the Niners can score 25 points) unless I was dealing with .5 points and I’d round that .5 to my liking.

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Jul 22, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Example

A little nitpick, but you have Seattle as -4, meaning they’re the favorite in that example.

by David Fucillo on Jul 22, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Doh

You’re right.

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Jul 23, 2009 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions

great

now everyone knows how I do it

Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis

by wjackalope on Jul 22, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions

TEH SECRETZ!!

WE CAN HAZ WINZ NOW?

by sfgfan on Jul 22, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions

LULZ!!

FER REALZ..

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Jul 22, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I think I'm going to like the Over in all of Denver's games

Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.

by methodrampage on Jul 22, 2009 11:31 AM PDT reply actions

If any of you folks like betting on games, but are poor or don’t like losing money, I highly recommend www.centsports.com. It’s a fun site that spots you 10 cents, and you can use that to earn as much money as you want. You’re still betting real money on games, you just never have to waste any of your own money.

I like using it to practice my gambling skills risk free.

by snafu on Jul 23, 2009 11:09 PM PDT reply actions