2009 San Francisco 49ers: Best Case Scenario
by David Fucillo on Jul 23, 2009 8:00 AM PDT
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PrintTraining camp kicks off in a week and I thought I'd bring back a post from last year: the best and worst case scenarios for the 2009 San Francisco 49ers. When we ran it last year it was a one-off post on the eve of training camp. This year I've decided to go with a pair of posts. The first is going up today and will look at the best case scenario. The second post will be go up tomorrow and will look at the worst case scenario. I'm splitting them up because I'd like to separate the discussions of best and worst.
In looking at both scenarios I've tried to be at least a little bit realistic. What are the best and worst possible scenarios given the 49ers current situation. I'm not predicting 14-2 and a Super Bowl. Shaun Hill/Alex Smith are not going to the Pro Bowl and Patrick Willis is not going to finish with 300 tackles. Ok, maybe that last one could happen. Likewise, I'm not predicting 0-16. If you feel like either of those scenarios is a potential best or worst case scenario, feel free to argue for it. And one last reminder, this is what I see as the BEST case scenario, not what I see as likely to happen. So, if you have a drastic problem with this best case scenario, I'd love to hear your thoughts on why best case is worse (or better).
Best Case Scenario
The big question on offense in this scenario is whether Alex Smith or Shaun Hill shows the necessary improvement. I suppose in an ideal best case scenario Alex Smith wins the QB battle, or takes over midseason and fulfills his #1 pick-ness (I know that's not a word). However, I'll say realistically, a legit best case is just a matter of one of the two QBs taking a firm hold of the job. Entering last year I said that improvement would require 3,500+ yards. Last season saw J.T. O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill combine for 3,724 yards in the Martz offense. I was thinking something similar this year, but really the number will depend a lot on the running game, given the changing offense.
At running back, Glen Coffee steps up as a solid contributor on offense. Gore has seen his numbers decline the last two years going from 2,100+ yards in 2006 to 1,500+ in 2007 to 1,400+ last year. If Gore could get to about 1,700+ combined yards, that might actually be a sufficient rebound. In this best case scenario Coffee finishes with 400-500 rushing yards (over double Foster's numbers last year. Beyond that, I won't both factoring in the third running back, be it Sheets, Clayton or Robinson. There will be additional production, but it's a little too out there at this point.
As for the wide receivers and tight ends? A best case would see Josh Morgan making the leap and Michael Crabtree putting together a very solid rookie campaign. I'm thinking 60-70 catches for Morgan with over 1,000 yards, while Crabtree finishes in the 600-700 yard range on 40 or so catches. Not huge numbers, but rather some solid YAC. Jason Hill gets into the 40 catch range, while Vernon Davis flashes some skills in reaching career highs in catches, yards and becomes a redzone staple.
The key to all this is the gelling of the offensive line into a very solid force. At tackle, Marvel Smith manages to stay healthy the whole year, while Joe Staley shows last season's early struggles were just a bump in the road. He may not be selected to the Pro Bowl, but he has a very solid season. Eric Heitmann remains a rock at center, while Chilo Rachal shows continued improvement in his second year.
After the jump, we assess the defense in this best case scenario, and project out a best-case record...
The easiest predictions on defense in this best case scenario? 1) Parys Haralson moves into double digit sack territory with 10 or 11; and 2) Manny Lawson shows he can be an all around threat at outside linebacker. In my best case scenario I'm not predicting double digit sacks for Lawson, but rather 7 or 8 sacks, while still maintaining his quality coverage skills. Elsewhere, Ahmad Brooks manages to not entirely piss off Coach Singletary and becomes a solid role player, grabbing 3 or 4 sacks in the process.
On the defensive line, I think Kentwan Balmer would need to step up and show his rookie season was an aberration. We won't see a huge statistical performance from him, but rather he steps like a 3-4 defensive end should, taking over the starting job by early to midseason. Sopoaga officially becomes a super sub filling in at both the DE and DT positions. Ideally that's what I'd like to see. Aubrayo Franklin shows some improvement from last season at nose tackle, even if he isn't on the field every single down. Again, the defensive line's statistics won't reflect it, but a best case scenario will see improvement there.
In the secondary, Nate Clements bounces back from a somewhat down 2008. I'm thinking 4 or 5 interceptions. On the other side, it's a little harder to decide what would be "best case." For long term growth we'd want to see Tarell Brown as the starting corner. However, for now, I think Dre Bly's confidence is rewarded and he puts together a solid campaign, with a bit of a rebirth after recent struggles. I'm thinking one or two pick-6's from Bly. Tarell Brown locks down the nickel back position, with Shawntae Spencer providing very solid depth throughout. Since Spencer will not be seeing nearly as much playing time, he's able to stay healthy the entire season, providing assistance when the 49ers are dealing with deeper receiving corps.
And at free safety? Well y'all know the best case scenario sees a healthy, productive Dashon Goldson. It involves Goldson laying the wood on receivers and picking up a few interceptions. We won't see the return of the chicken man routine, but he shows why people have been expecting great things from him.
Best Case Record: 11-5, division champs, (shockingly similar to last year's best case scenario). In looking at my assessments of the offense and defense, one might argue I've underestimated the best case win total (or over-estimated the potential of the offense and defense in a best case scenario). I haven't made a specific playoff prediction because as Arizona proved last year, one team can get hot and go crazy. If the 49ers reached the playoffs at 11-5, it would not be out of the realm to say they could win the Super Bowl, or bow out the first week.
In this particular prediction, some of the necessary wins potentially include @ Minnesota, home vs. Atlanta, @ Houston, and home vs. Chicago and Jacksonville. Wins in these games would be tough, but wouldn't shock me, particularly in a best case scenario.
Alright, so have at it. Is the rose-colored glass view a little too rosey? Or am I still being too pessimistic?
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Not to be overly critical, but...
Between this and the “Bold Statements” thread, I can’t help but feel like you guys are just teasing the already hopelessly optimistic group of fans on this site into blowing their standards well out of proportion.
Is it really worth it to stack the hype so high that no one can see over to the other side? Call me crazy, but I’d rather predict a 6-10 season and be pleasantly surprised than expect an 11-5 record and end up getting socked in the face by the iron fist of reality (for the seventh straight year).
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
Best/Worst
Don’t worry, we’ll be back with the worst case scenario tomorrow. And even still, I think the optimists are going to be optimistic no matter what at this point. I’m stoking the flames a little but I don’t think I’m converting many of them. And we’ll bring folks back to an uglier reality tomorrow. Besides, at this point, it’s like getting to the finish line of the marathon that is the offseason, and any post is a welcome post for me.
by David Fucillo on Jul 23, 2009 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions
fooch
is there going to also be a most likely scenario as well?
if you have best case and worst case, maybe there should be something in between?
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 23, 2009 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions
probably
That’ll end up being my general predictions of the year post….but I’m gonna hold off on that one for now.
by David Fucillo on Jul 23, 2009 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions
as long as I get to see
an estimated prediction, I’ll be happy. when is not important.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 23, 2009 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions
bad idea
Should have done this the other way around. The way you have it now, you get us all excited then SMACK us down tomorrow and leave us with a sour taste in our mouths, that’s just plain mean.
order
I figure that’s a way to appease the pessimists. And also, keep people from being tooo excited heading into training camp!
by David Fucillo on Jul 23, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
hang on though shlecko
tomorrow is the worst case scenario post, so you may see a 3-13 type forecast.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 23, 2009 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions
sometimes i wonder where i fit in? I love the 9ers but is my fanaticism making me overly optimistic?
I might have a problem, because i can see myself depressed if the 9ers arent a shoe in for the play offs
Re: Bold Statements
That was not meant to be an optomistic-heavy post, I believe i mentioned (and encouraged) negative, pessamistic opinions and statements, but the NN populous went the optomistic route. I believe it is more telling of the NN visitors as a whole; they feel optomistic about the 2009 season (as most have been over the past six seasons, like you said).
I’ve beegun to really have my doubts as I look at how good the teams we are playing are looking (thanks “Know Thy Enemy”) so I’m definately not as optomistic as I was 2 months ago, but I feel you Schlecko, too much “WERE GUNNA BEEZ THE BESTEST TEAM IN THE NFL!! NINURZ RUULLLEEE!!!” makes me a bit sick to my stomach.
That being said, full disclosure, I voted 10-11 wins. :-D
Blind devotion.
by ProfessorBigelow on Jul 23, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
You make one big mistake
in your analysis.
I won’t both factoring in the third running back, be it Sheets, Clayton or Robinson. There will be additional production, but it’s a little too out there at this point.
Robinson caught 17 passes the second half of last season for 201 yards, an 11.9 average and nobody noticed, obviously you didn’t. That was only after Singletary took over. Morgan had just over 300 yards all season and everyone is raving. Sheets will make the PS, Robinson will be #3 RB and #2 FB, and Clayton will disappear.
Kezarvet
Robinson
I’m interested in seeing MRob in a play action offense. He should be able to sneak out of the backfield on 3rd downs. He shows a knack for making plays on 3rd down. Despite his poor out-of-the-backfield he is a solid open field runner securing both the 1st down and the football. As far as I’m aware all of his fumbles came after he took a hand off.
Another mistake.
Sopoaga STARTS at LDE and rotates in at DT. He is anything but a sub and will have his best season yet.
Kezarvet
best case
I just think the best case would have Balmer starting. It would certainly be great for Sopoaga to be starting, but Balmer is the former 1st round pick people want to succeed.
by David Fucillo on Jul 23, 2009 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions
A little to rosey
At best , they will win 9 games, 10 games, if things have to go their way . That’s a lot of iff’s. I can see much improvement from last years team and had some plays gone their way, they coulda ,woulda won 9 . So, I see that in their picture this year. 11 wins would be asking to much at this point. We can alway hope.
In a best case scenario, like the one you proposed above… I assume the 49ers should win most of their games. The fact, is that some of these players will live up to their potential, but others won’t. The team will deal with injuries and the team will also struggle early on (AGAIN) due to another new Offensive coordinator. The difference between this year and last year, is the confidence the players have for their team and coach and to me, that is enough for them to find a way to put together enough wins to win this division with 10-11 wins.
In your best case scenario, with all these players playing up to, or way beyond potential, then the 49ers should be a 14 game winning team this year and win at least a playoff game or two….. but I think we’ll fall somewhere in the middle, but still having a chance to take the division.
Why the grouping?
Fooch, I think you do a great job with this blog, but i do have a suggestion on Polls.
You need to consistently group the choices so the results are easier to read. Why are 7-8, 10-11, 12-13 together? Or conversly, why is 9 all alone? It makes the results hard to read in my opinion. Especially when the only single # is in the middle of the choices rather than at one extreme or the other. Maybe 90% of the 10-11 voters voted 10 or vice versa. I understand the <7 and 14+ as catch alls for the super nay sayers and koolaid drinkers, but the others should have all been singles for consistency.
by Drullin'OverDaCards on Jul 23, 2009 9:48 AM PDT reply actions
poll
I’ve noticed a lot people in previous posts pointing to 9 wins as the high end for the 49ers, so I figured I’d keep it separate. As far as the others, I just look at those groupings as pretty consistent areas. A 10-11 win team is different than a 12-13 win team. Just a sense I get. And given how last year went for the 49ers, I don’t think a lot separates a 7 win team and an 8 win team.
by David Fucillo on Jul 23, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Like most team, the 49ers best case scenario is primarily centered on injuries and depth
I think the 49ers have better depth this year. Injuries, for the most part, are a random occurrence and you just hope luck is on your side. The improved depth should help the 49ers deal with injuries a little better though.
I look at our schedule....
And I see:
Vikings, Falcons, Texans, Colts, Titans, Jags (AFC South is the toughest conference, IMO), Packers and Eagles. FIVE of these are road games. That is SCARY, no matter who our quarterback is. On the other side how does our Defense stop Adrian Peterson, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, the Titans run game, Maurice Jones-Drew, Aaron Rodgers or Donovan McNabb?
Best case scenario MAX is 10 wins, that’s with some seriously lucky bounces. Hill is not going to suddenly become a gunslinger who takes everyone by surprise and beats some of these stout defenses. Alex Smith MIGHT, but it’s a HUGE maybe.
8-8 will be an accomplishment against this schedule.
Agree on the tough schedule ...
… and would add in Chicago. There’s a bunch of people on here who know far more than me, but I see Chicago in a thread the other day being put down as a game where the Niners are “slight favourites” and I see also in this thread the Bears being mentioned as a winnable game. I’d thought, with Cutler, they were a good outside tip for a championship, especially if they address their lack of receiving options with a Brandon Marshall or a Plaxico.
by LondonNiner on Jul 23, 2009 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Bears? "Championship"?!?
Cutler’s a step up at QB, but (as you point out) he’s got nobody to throw to, and their D has fallen off over the past couple of years. Chicago will be a tough game, but at least you’ll be at home. They’re beatable. Looking at their schedule they do have some easy games, but I just can’t see them being anything more than a wild-card team at best.
Scary?
I look at the opposing teams this year and see a very different picture. I think the Titans hit a perfect storm last year and I fully expect Collins to erode quickly. I would not be surprised to see them drop to sub-500. The Vikings will likely be without the Williams brothers and, as good as Favre has been, he wasn’t anything special last year and he is now a year older. Realistically, there are not many scary teams. Jacksonville is mediocre at best and SF excels at stopping their one strength, Ryan will likely hit the sophomore slump, Seattle has a QB with a bum back, Arizona’s QB could have fought in the WWI, Chicago is relying on Orlando Pace to keep their new toy upright (good luck with that come November), Green Bay is unspectacular and then there are the Lions and Rams.
Outside of Indy and Philly, there are a lot of winnable games. Houston could be tough, but they could also hit a major slide. The Niners can certainly (site decorum) the bed and lose a bunch, but it should not be due to facing overwhelming talent.
don't forget
with that Minn game Willis essentially erases Peterson from the game. So with Favre there are they better, yes. But I think without Peterson they are beatable.
…with Favre there are they better, yes.
Debatable.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
I don't like Favre's chances either...
…but by God, he’s replacing the Disgusting Duo of Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels. Minnesota is one of the few teams in the league that even I can say with complete confidence has a worse QB situation than the 49ers. Favre should be an upgrade, even if a minor one, simply due to experience alone.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 24, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I think maybe the coaches have to be factored in ...
… to both the best-case and worst-case scenarios. Singletary, motivational though he undoubtedly is, is unproven as a head coach and Jimmy Raye has not called plays in a while. The link in the Nuggets this morning which took us through to the Lombardi piece on Sing was interesting – it essentially outlined all the things he’d have to do, and we just don’t know yet if he can do them. For the record, not that it matters what I think, I love Mike, and am desperate to see him succeed, but best-case has to be that the HC is able to immediately master the issues Lombardi talks about, and Raye repeats some of his more successful OC stints from back in the day, rather than some of the times he’s led offenses to losing records. Worst-case is that they, um, don’t.
After all, was it O’Sullivan’s fault the Niners struggled in the opening half of last season? Or any of the players? Or was it Martz’s and Nolan’s?
Niners....
The Niners will go 9-7 this season, earning a playoff berth (finally). Mark it down…
Best Case
I wonder what the Dolphin fans’ predictions were, about this time last year. Probably not 11-5… What’s sad is looking at the talent this year, I feel much better, but looking at the schedule, is giving me exploding diarrheah…
Seriously. The one thing I DO like about the schedule is that we open against Arizona, so maybe we can catch them off guard, still coming off their Superbowl game.
Then we got Seattle, who was pretty horrible last year. They’ve improved, but I don’t think it’s enough to really put them in favor to win.
Next is Minnesota. Yeah, they’re going to be tough, and I think Percy Harvin will eventually be a great pick for them, but at least it’s only week 3 in that regard. If we come out of this game healthy, I’ll consider it a moral win for the rest of the season. If we can pull off a real win, then I’ll think this team is legit.
Week 4 is a must win against the Rams, especially since it’s sandwiched between Minnesota and Atlanta… you don’t wanna lose 3 games in a row, but if the 49ers come out of the gate strong, I think they can start the season 3-1.
Week 5, like I said, Atlanta. It’s gonna be hard, but it’s a home game, so we might eek out a win here.
Week 6, bye week… can’t lose this one.
Week 7, The Texans are an enigma to me. They always find ways to lose, or so it seems. Every year I think they’re going to be improved, but I never see them with a record over .500
Week 8, Colts… It’ll be a tough one… probably a loss
Week 9, Titans… I can’t see us winning this one either, barring any type of injury to the Titans… but it’s not unrealistic that the 49ers pulloff an upset to either the Colts, Atlanta or Minnesota. I could see us at 5-3 at the midway point of the season… likewise, we could lose against Arizona, or even Seattle too… so it might end up being 2-6.
Week 10, Chicago… this one’s tough, cuz you never know how an offense is going to be with a new QB. The Defense should still pose a threat for our offense.
Week 11, Packers… and it’s IN GREENBAY…. ’nuff said.
Week 12, Jacksonville… I don’t know. They might be a solid team this year, despite being last in their division. They drafted 2 big tackles in the first 2 rounds, Monroe and Britton. Those two kids should open up some pretty big holes for this offense and Jones-Drew to do some damage. I think this is the last of the SUPER hard games for the Niners, and if they are in a position for a playoff spot, they could ride the easier part of their schedule into it. If they are around 5-6 at this time, they may be able to go on a winning streak for the last 5 games and sneak into the playoffs.
Week 13, At Seattle this time… but did Hasselback break his neck yet? I’d be surprised if he didn’t. Gotta win this one.
Week 14, Arizona at home, gotta win this one too.
Week 15, I think the Eagles are out of the playoffs this year, and the 9ers have a chance to take their spot with a win.
Week 16, Detroit, we can probably play our backups and still come out with a victory.
Week 17, Rams again.
The season really depends on how well we do the first 5 games, and the last 5 games, cuz the ones in the middle are going to be killers. I think anything under 7-9 would just be an utter disappointment, but if we play well against our division, I don’t see a playoff berth much of a problem, and if some of our guys finally start showing their potential, then 10-12 wins shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Not so fast
I see your logic in your predictions, but I see some flaws too. In the case of Jacksonville, you are putting a lot of faith in two rookie OL players and we all know that very few rookies make much of an impact. Green Bay is not the same Green Bay from a few years ago; that game could be a toss up. Chicago is getting long in the tooth on defense and their OL is now missing their bookends. Cutler will likely get pounded early and often this year. And I don’t know why, but I have a feeling the Tennessee will take a huge step back this year. Collins has never been consistent in his career and last year just felt like they had luck on their side. My gut just tells me that they will have some injury issues and/or something will make them struggle.
This is what I see happening in a best case scenario. I tried to be impartial as possible. Let me know what you guys think.
Week 1, @ Arizona, W: Arizona, riding high off a Super Bowl appearance and overconfident after sweeping the division, is edged out by the 49ers by giving up a couple moderately long touchdown runs due to sloppy tackling and give up some easy points in the form of field goals after a crappy attempt at ‘bend, not break’ defense. 1-0 after pulling an upset.
Week 2, Seattle, W: Seattle was decimated by injuries last year. They are on the uprise, but as of Week 2, still not completely on the mend yet and the road game doesn’t help matters for Seattle. Seattle looks good, if inconsistent, but the 49ers play a smooth game and taking advantage of turnovers to win a close game at home. 2-0
Week 3, @ Minnesota, L: What initially looks like a defensive struggle between two run-defenses quickly takes a swing for the Vikings after their blitz schemes completely overwhelm the 49ers offensive line. Brett Favre and co. play decently enough to take advantage of what seems to be a shaky 49ers secondary, and the run defense wears down later in the game, letting the Vikings pull away in the second half. 2-1
Week 4, St. Louis, W: Marc Bulger comes out swinging and Steve Spagnuolo’s invigorated defense capitalizes on a couple of early turnovers, but then they remember they are the Rams and proceed to allow themselves to be blown out. 3-1
Week 5, Atlanta, L: Atlanta’s offense is quickly looking like the NFC’s best and Matt Ryan quickly takes it to the air with a couple of early deep passing TDs to Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White , who makes a fool of Nate Clements repeatedly throughout the game. Michael Turner closes out the game in the 4th. Easy win for Atlanta. 3-2
Week 6, Bye: The 49ers are so far relatively lucky with injuries, so they use the bye to plan for the Texans and prevent their first back to back losses of the season.
Week 7, Houston, L: Matt Schaub is healthy and quickly finds out what the rest of the league is realizing: the 49ers’ secondary is a liability. DC Manusky attempts to dial up the pressure through blitzes, but through no avail as Schaub seems to be playing pitch and catch to Andre Johnson, Kevin Walters, Owen Daniels, and even Steve Slaton out of the slot. 49ers lose first back to back games of the season. 3-3
Week 8, Indianapolis, L: The 49ers make the mistake of immediately devoting everyone to pass coverage to attempt to stop Peyton Manning. Donald Brown quickly makes them pay by breaking a couple of long runs, and as soon as the defense adjusts by adding another man to the box, Manning torches the secondary. The 49ers offense looks effective, but is outclassed by an elite team. 3-4
Week 9, Tennessee, L: Though they are struggling early in the season, the Titans are still favored by a sizable margin. However, Patrick Willis has his best game of the season and more or less makes Smash N’ Dash ineffective, and Kerry Collins fails to take advantage of the secondary. However, the 49ers can’t get anything going on offense as Shaun Hill’s inadequate arm is taken advantage of by the Titan’s secondary, and he throws interceptions to Michael Griffin and Cortland Finnegan, including the game-decider in the 4th quarter. Titans edge out a narrow victory, but the 49ers have reason for optimism going on past the halfway point. 3-5
Week 10, Chicago, W: The Jay Cutler trade is a horrific bust as Cutler looks like a turnover machine for most of the season and a total product of Mike Shanahan. The Bears field an absolutely piss-poor offense and the 49ers offense looks effective, though struggling in the redzone. 4-5
Week 11, @ Green Bay, W: A shocking upset that reverberates around the NFL world. The Packers jump to an early lead after Aaron Rodgers makes 49ers jealous with envy as he throws TDs to Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson. However, the 49ers offense catches fire in this game, with Frank Gore utterly embarassing the Packers garbage attempt at a 3-4/4-3 hybrid. 5-5
Week 12, Jacksonville, W: 49ers fans are already thinking playoffs as they rack up their 3rd straight win and bring themselves up from a losing record. Jacksonville is healthy, but this is a great battle between a fantastic rushing offense and a rush defense that is carried on Patrick Willis’s back. Takeo Spikes also does a great job shutting down MJD. The Jaguars are healthy, but it turns out David Garrard is simply not a good QB and makes some awful throws that are intercepted by Dashon Goldson and Manny Lawson. 6-5
Week 13, @ Seattle: Historically, Seattle’s offense tends to pick around midseason, and they almost always amaze at home. San Francisco’s undisciplined line (and Vernon Davis) pick up several drive-killing penalties, Seattle’s pass-rush dominates, and the Seahawks win a game that’s not as close as the score would indicate. 6-6
Week 14, Arizona, L: This is a game that’s really hard to predict. On one hand, if Arizona is the same team as last season, they easily wipe out the 49ers by the second quarter. On the other hand, Kurt Warner could be injured by now or Larry Fitzgerald could be Madden-cursesd. But, I’m not going to predict injuries. So, Arizona comes to SF prepared after smarting over the embarassing Week 1 loss, and quickly take it to the air and torch SF’s secondary, which at this point is one of the league’s worst (and the lack of a pass-rush is not helping matters). 49ers fans already want a way to draft Eric Berry or Taylor Mays at this point. Cardinals run up the score out of spite and win. 6-7
Week 15, Philadelphia, L – Donovan McNabb is flourishing with an improved offensive line and new toys to throw to this season, but is struggling with week to week inconsistency. This happens to be an off week for him, and the 49ers, desperate for wins this late into the season, are blitzing mercilessly. However, Philly’s defense doesn’t miss a beat under new DC McDermott, and take advantage of missed scoring opportunities by the 49ers. Niners are held to one score in the loss. 6-8
Week 16, Detroit, W – In a surprisingly competitive game featuring the duel between #1 QB picks Matt Stafford and Alex Smith (who takes over due to Shaun Hill’s inability to produce any offense several weeks prior). Stafford connects with Megatron on deep passes and TE Brandon Pettigrew has his finest game as a pro, complete with dominant blocking and critical 3rd down conversions. However, Detroit’s defense, it’s run-defense in particular, is still ghastly, and Glenn Coffee in particular has a good game. 7-8
Week 17, Rams, W – The Rams at this point are trying to stop the bleeding of a miserable season, and field very few starters. The 49ers are equally lackluster, but hey, someone has to win. 8-8
END
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
I think you’re missing the point about what "best case scenario" actually means.
Take the secondary, for example, which you’re making out to be a liability this upcoming season. I think Lewis and especially Clements should at least be solid, and I hope you would agree here. So apparently you’re assuming that Goldson wont be the upgrade everybody is hoping for, and that Bly doesn’t have a whole lot left in the tank, maybe not even enough to beat out Tarrell Brown and Shawntae Spencer.
I don’t know how good Goldson will be, or Brown, and I don’t know how much Bly has left. But neither do you. So for the purpose of a best case scenario, you just have to assume that Goldson will be fine, that Bly will come up with one more good year, and that Brown and Spencer will provide solid depth.
While Patrick Willis will still be great in a worst case scenario, and Mark Roman will still suck in a best case scenario, the players we don’t yet know exactly what to think of are the ones that make up what a best or worst case scenario is all about, performing as good as we can only hope for in a best case scenario, or sucking big time in a worst case scenario.
So while I could certainly see things developing the way you’re projecting, I don’t think your analysis really qualifies as “best case”.
Not "best case"
This is probably what’s really going to happen….which still isn’t so great.
It would mean that we would absolutely have to use at least one of our first round picks for secondary help (could be good if we hit on a great CB or S……but how long has it been since we’ve landed a good CB or S in the draft?)
by SportsChicken on Jul 24, 2009 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Not completely best case but...
That is the median record I see us ending up with. I hope for a 9-7 and pray we don’t don’t go 5-11.
For the record, this is me being very optimistic.
In reality I expect several of the teams I have the 49ers down as winning here to wipe the floor with SF.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 26, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
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