49ers football analysis: The brain versus the heart
As many folks here know, I'm a bit beholden to the folks at Football Outsiders. While my heart certainly interjects on occasion, I am wildly intrigued by the kind of work Football Outsiders does. It's not always correct, and there are plenty of people bringing this kind of thing to the table now. However, the general idea of using serious statistic analysis to analyze the game of football and the 49ers in particular is one thing I particularly enjoy.
I like to swing over to 49ers Webzone and see what there writers are posting about on occasion. For those who don't know about Webzone, they write articles, but I look at them as a bit more like a message board. I could be wrong since they do mix in a large number of in-season articles with the message board stuff. For blogging purposes, they post fairly consistently, but tail off during the offseason. As we're approaching training camp they've picked up their posting again.
I mention all this because they had an article a few days ago that amused me to no end. The article's title: "Analyze This, Football Outsiders: We Will Prove You Wrong." It was pretty easy to tell where this article was going. I completely understand the point they're trying to make, but lines like the following still make me laugh a little bit:
You guys at Football Outsiders assume, not unreasonably, we'll fail because of our lack of strength. But you haven't measured our will. And that's why you're wrong.
Or this one in discussing the small percentage chance of winning 9 or more games:
And here's why that 12% chance is coming through. What separates us from the Lions, at least this year, isn't just context and luck. It's something your stats will never measure. It's the category in which we'll lead the league, without a doubt.
It's will.
I'll keep an eye out at ESPN's stats section for league-leading will.
Now, I realize the point of the article and how stats don't measure heart and this and that (in spite of leading the league in will). But it still cracks me up. I've been known to throw out cliches in articles. When writing a post-game recap or most anything during the season, it's easy to get caught up in the emotion of it all. However, during the offseason I feel like I can maintain a slightly more analytical view of things. I'm not saying I'm not a homer at times. But I can recognize reality on occasion.
I also know there are plenty of folks here who agree with the idea of the Singletary imposing his will and this team having the heart and all that other stuff. I don't buy into it nearly as much, but I won't begrudge another person the right to believe in that stuff 24/7.
It doesn't mean I won't snicker a little when I hear it though...
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19 comments
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Comments
I'm ambivalent about season predictions from anyone.
Based on statistical analysis, experience, or even intuition. Not because I don’t believe the statistics but because they don’t measure things like team cohesion, the effects of injuries, coaching schemes, or player changes and development, all of which are important factors. Football isn’t like baseball, which is a statistician’s dream sport. I tend to view all football team forecasts similar to economic forecasts, which are half statistics and half palm readings and only give a general idea of what might take place.
Player statistics, however, are another thing altogether and can be very useful in separating fact from fiction.
by MontanaPass on Jul 26, 2009 10:31 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
This is an outstanding point. People answering Football Outsiders frequently do so by cherry-picking predictions, saying things like “You guys never predicted the Titans to be a good team! What do you know?”
This misses the point. Nobody predicted the Titans would be good. Pre-season predictions are just plain hard to do in a sport with 54 people on a team, 22 on the field at any given time, and an absurdly high injury rate. The inaccuracy isn’t because statistics don’t work, it’s because preseason predictions for entire teams don’t work.
by spenczar on Jul 26, 2009 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Logic!!!
Football is the game of momentum change. One player can take a so so team to the playoffs with the same player and the head coach as last year. It seems we have a new surprise team every year, and that’s counter statistical. Who and when and how bad you want it now, is a more driving force than how they played last year.
Statistics are a good tool for compensation, which we can say is good for motivation!
by Niner Power on Jul 26, 2009 11:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t see how that’s counter statistical. There is plenty in stats about things like probable deviation.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Jul 26, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The 49ers aren't going to 'will' their way to a winning season.
If they do that, it means their players have started performing at a very high level and/or their coaching has improved. Wanting to win a game is not going to make it so.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 26, 2009 11:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Mostly true
But their are mental aspects to performance and motivation does play a part.
by Brendan Scolari on Jul 27, 2009 12:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm torn bewteen my brain and heart sometimes
My heart is always saying “Go Niners! The best in the west for the win”
But my brain says “You’ve felt this way each preseason for six seasons, use me a little more often, jerk face”
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 26, 2009 11:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The Webzone is...
Where braincells go to die. It’s worse than Reacher Report.
Well, we're waiting....
by drummer on Jul 26, 2009 1:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Webzone
They do manage a ton of traffic. Although, I think that has more to do with their message board….and the fact that they’ve been in existence for 12 years now.
by Fooch on Jul 26, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only good "reads"...
That have true substance are the links to the press. Let me put it this way, someone posted a link to the Webzone on FootballGuys message board (you should really check out that board Fooch), and one poster said he lost IQ points reading it. One of their has been known to plaigiarize from posts on different 49ers boards. The message board is full of nonesense, like “Alex Smith=Terry Bradshaw”.
I may be a bit critical of that site, put they really put out a lot of garbage that isn’t reseached well.
Well, we're waiting....
by drummer on Jul 26, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
FootballGuys.com?
Never checked them out before. Is it primarily a fantasy related site?
by Fooch on Jul 26, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,
But they have forums that you can register on that are free, and you don’t have to register to read them. I have been reading and posting there for a few years now, and I don’t play FF at all. There is a lot of solid opinion on there (except when it comes to Kobe on their Free For All forum), and their FF projections can be interesting stuff. One poster put up a post of “The Mike Martz effect” last season that was really interesting. It a League wide site, but you can find some intesting takes on the 49ers there. These guys take FF very seriously, and everyone who plays it should check it out.
Well, we're waiting....
by drummer on Jul 26, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here is a link..
of their “Player Spotlights”.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=477578
Well, we're waiting....
by drummer on Jul 26, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Just started reading them, thanks for sharing!
These are pretty enlightening.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jul 26, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your welcome..
Make sure you check out the Shark Pool from time to time. They have gameday threads during the season, and it really kicks into gear season long.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?act=SF&s=&f=2
Well, we're waiting....
by drummer on Jul 27, 2009 1:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Will versus direction
Teams do give up on coaches. I don’t think the Niners gave up on Nolan but they certainly were more inspired with Singletary. I think that the defense played better once Manusky and the players were freed from Nolan. There was only so much progress the offense could make moving from Martz’s system with Martz still there.
That is, I think the team underplayed with Nolan as coach. It wasn’t will. Call it overcoaching or bad coaching, but it seemed that both the offense and defense were calling entirely too many timeouts because they didn’t know what they were doing. The whole coaching strategy in the first half of last year ceded time of possession to opponents. Not good.
by Bob On The Coast on Jul 26, 2009 5:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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