Mining your way to fantasy gold - Jaguars Edition
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 12, 2009 4:00 PM PDT
in Fantasy Football
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PrintToday I take a look at the Jacksonville Jaguars and the dump truck full of fantasy options they offer in 2009. Seriously, this could be the quickest and briefest fantasy forecast I'll have; the Jaguars had just 3 players appearing in mock drafts. MJD is the most popular, most productive, and most awesome Jaguar threat, especially with Fred Taylor off to New England. Let's see who else went.
The triplets of Jacksonville:
- Maurice Jones-Drew RB - Avg. Selection* 3.7; 100% drafted
- Torry Holt WR - Avg. Selection 93; 100% drafted
- David Garrard QB - Avg. Selection 126; 93% drafted
*-100th selection = 10th pick round 10 (10 man); 6th pick round 9 (12 man); 3rd pick round 8 (14 man)
After the jump, I forecast the Jaguars in less time than it takes you to toast a pop-tart...
Maurice Jones-Drew
Aside from fantasy owners, no one stands to benefit more from Fred Taylor's departure than Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD already received a mega-contract and is viewed as the franchise center piece on offense. He is a franchise center piece for your fantasy offense also, you just have to be lucky enough to get him. If you're picking 6th in a league, trying talking some serious smack about how MJD looks terrible, or MJD won't last a full season - anything to get Jones-Drew on your team. The most exciting aspect of Jones-Drew is his 38 total TDs in just three seasons, all of which included Fred Taylor as a teammate. At the very least, I expect MJD to set career highs in TDs and total yards. MJD is easily worth a top 4 selection in your draft. Fantasy Forecast: 1600 total yards, 16 Total TDs
David Garrard
If I asked you how many times Garrard threw for over 250 yards in 2008, what would you answer? The answer is five times, to go along with five multi-TD games. Also in 2008, Garrard had zero TDs in 3 contests, not a very good stat, but I imagine drafting Garrard as a QB2, with the only intention of starting him during your QB1's bye week. If you're in a deep league, and Garrard is your weekly QB1, feel at least knowing Garrard was 9th in fantasy scoring amongst QBs. Garrard will serve your fantasy squad best as a back-up, so taking him in the 120s isn't completely unreasonable. However, Matt Hasselbeck's ADP was the same (126) and he'd be a much better selection. Fantasy Forecast: 3400 Pass Yards, 16 PaTDs, 10 INTs
Torry Holt
Consider Torry Holt this year's version of Isaac Bruce. Holt was ousted from St. Louis and ventured to Jacksonville to become the team's top target. Bruce had a similar experience in 2008, and ended up leading the 49ers in receiving. Torry Holt is four years younger than Bruce, so I expect similar things to happen for him in 2009. While Holt isn't the spring chicken he once was, 2008 snapped a streak of 8 consecutive 1000-yard seasons. The Rams were a mess, and one can hardly blame Holt for totalling just 796 yards and 3 TDs. In Jacksonville, Holt gives the Jaguars the experience they've needed at WR since Jimmy Smith. While Holt may not set the world on fire, he's certainly a great option as your WR3 (considering you draft him around his ADP). Fantasy Forecast: 1000 total yards, 6 TDs
No Sleep for you
I've got no Jacksonville sleeper, so those expecting to see Mike Thomas mentioned, this is the only time. Ditto for those curious about Mike Walker, Troy Williamson (LOL!) or any other Jaguar. The Jacksonville team defense is intriguing, but at this point, I'd recommend looking elsewhere. Perhaps keep an eye on Mike Thomas during the season, and also note how the Jaguars Defense plays. If you can get your hands on MJD, do so and landing Torry Holt with a pick in the 90s almost seems too good to be true. The Jaguars have their bye week in Week 7, so any thoughts of drafting both Garrard and Hasselbeck as your team's QBs is dampered slightly (Seattle shares the bye). This is seriously it for Jacksonville's fantasy forecast.
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(all fantasy stats are based on 2007-2008 Yahoo! Standard Public league scoring)
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Mike Walker
Big time sleeper, if his knees hold up he’ll outproduce Holt.
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
it appears Walker has been in a boot after that injured mentioned in the above link.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 12, 2009 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions
He got hurt after catching a touchdown pass
Tbh he always gets hurt and i think from watching him for a while the risk outweighs the reward.
"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
OT
Kawakami has a post up saying that Parker doesn’t intend to budge on Crabtree’s contract until right before the season.
If true, this sucks.
by Bob In Beaverton on Aug 12, 2009 8:43 PM PDT reply actions
yeah
I don’t like that either. As much as I love Crab, holding out until right before the season will upset me. Our WRs corps is decent with or without Crabtree, but more towards the very decent side if Crabtree is actually playing and signed.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 12, 2009 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Parker...
… is an idiot if that somehow got out. (Not that he already isn’t one).
If you’re going to budge anyway, what point is there to keeping your potential future bread-winner from getting a head-start on becoming said bread-winner?
They don't have any leverage with a NBA style rookie cap most likely
being written into the CBA. He could hold out for next year and lose 10-15 million not counting not getting paid for this year.
There now I've met the 75 word count. -pookeyguru
Uh....
Perhaps you misunderstood me? I’m saying that if Parker and/or Crabtree are going to cave in and sign anyway, what benefit do they have to wait until the regular season is about to start? Crabtree would be best maximizing his future value by getting to work now and hopefully putting in a productive year. If they wait until the season starts, he’s basically still a rookie next year (even if he signs with the 49ers), so he’s already given up one year of his potentially productive career.
maybe (and this is just maybe)
Parker and Crabtree want to scapegoat 2009’s performance with the holdout. Like, if Crab plays and plays poorly, everyone can write it off on the holdout and not Crab actually being overrated (or not 100% recovered). Seems like a silly angle, but Parker’s tactics seem silly in the first place.
Ultimately, I think Parker and Crabtree think the Niners are going to panic before the player does, but I think they (Parker/Crab) are wrong.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 13, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Silly.
It’s definitely a silly angle, considering that anyone with half a brain would blame that scapegoat solely on their shoulders. Crabtree has the ability to say “sign me up Parker” and be at camp this week and maybe even be ready to start contributing by week two or three. Waiting until later to sign and trying to use it as a scapegoat would just make them look even more foolish.
I don't see Hasselbeck as much better than Garrard
I think both teams will bounce back, but Garrard is much less likely to get hurt.
by Brendan Scolari on Aug 12, 2009 11:46 PM PDT reply actions
Hasselbeck
even after an injury has thrown 20 TDs in a season more times than Garrard has. Garrard has only had one 16 game season, but with that receiving corps, I can’t see a 20 TD performance out of Garrard. Mike Walker is really going to have step up big if that happens.
Hasselbeck has a pretty good unit in Seattle, and 20 TDs (if healthy) seems like a given with the weapons he has.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 13, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Besides a little contempt that can be picked up
Garrard is an good QB option as a backup. MJD should prove to be why he’s ranked as a top-5 pick, also he probably wouldn’t get banged up because they let some of the other RBs rush, one to note rashad jennings. I think you did a pretty good job on Torry Holt, we’re fine at BCC if he does that. As for sleeper, I probably say either Rashad Jennings or Tiquan Underwood (from Rutgers). Tiquan has deep-threat potential and is a pretty quick guy, he could get some good looks. Last for TE if you are a Chris Cooley kind of TE picker, try Zach Miller (Not the one in Oakland), he’s a Touchdown target.
Well thats bout all from Jacksonville :)
"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
I'd say we have more sleepers than legit starters for fantasy rosters at this point in time
"HULU: An evil plot to destroy the world. Enjoy"
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