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Today, I am going to take a look at the 2009 Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Forecast. The NFC West rivals have some pretty formidable fantasy options, and I’ve got a sleeper at the end of the column followed by a question for the Nation. Seattle has a good WR1 option, and a potential steal with a later round QB and an emerging fantasy stud at TE.
Notable Seahawks results (based on 30 mock drafts):
T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR – Avg. Selection* 41; Percent Drafted 100%
John Carlson TE – Avg. Selection 104; Percent Drafted 100%
Matt Hasselbeck QB – Avg. Selection 116; Percent Drafted 100%
Deion Branch WR – Avg. Selection 119; Percent Drafted 100%
Nate Burleson WR – Avg. Selection 134; Percent Drafted 77%
Julius Jones RB – Avg. Selection 107; Percent Drafted 73%
* - 100th selection = 10th pick round 10 (10 man); 6th pick round 9 (12 man); 3rd pick round 8 (14 man)
After the jump, I take a look at which guys you should draft, and which Seahawks you might want to avoid...
DRAFT THESE GUYS
In 2008, Housh struggled and finished 31st in scoring amongst WRs (a big drop from 2007’s 7th finish). Houshmandazadeh’s numbers can be blamed on several things, most notably a sub-par QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick). Seattle signed Houshmandzadeh to be Matt Hasselbeck’s primary target. It will be interesting to see how Houshmandzadeh produces as a team’s number one WR, and he’s a lower-tier WR1, and a top-tier WR2. Fantasy Forecast: 1100 total yards, 9 total TDs
The one sure thing you can say about Hasselbeck’s 2008 season: It was a disaster. Hasselbeck is returning for an injury plagued 2008, and while there’s no guarantee he can return to 2007 form, he will be a valuable fantasy option in 2009. Hasselbeck was the 8th scoring QB in 2007, and set career highs in both TDs and yards. The prospect of getting a healthy Hasselbeck is certainly worth a pick in the 100s. At the very least, he’s a fantastic back up that you can rotate in during favourable match-ups. Fantasy Forecast: 3300 pass yards, 25 pass TDs, 13 INTs
The second year tight end has the potential to emerge as a top 10 fantasy tight end in 2009 and beyond. In 2008, Carlson’s debut season, the rookie TE impressed everyone by finishing 7th amongst TEs in scoring. Much of Carlson’s success can be attributed to the fact that Carlson was one of the few receiving targets Seattle had healthy for a majority of the season. To say the very least, Carlson stepped up and proved himself to a reliable set of hands. Even with a healthier team in 2009, Carlson’s numbers should improve. He’s a fantastic bargain in the late 90s-low 100s, and worth starting every week. Fantasy Forecast: 800 total yards, 6 total TDs
DON'T DRAFT THESE GUYS
Don’t draft Nate, despite his 2007 TD totals (9). Burleson was injured much of 2008 (like every Seahawk), and aside from 2007, hasn’t done much since signing with Seattle. He is a speedy, big play threat, but I cannot see him putting up anywhere close to 700 yards and 9 TDs (his 2007 totals) in 2009. In a deep 14+ man league, Burleson might be worth a look, but keep in mind he’s a bottom-tier WR3. Fantasy Forecast: 500 total yards, 5 total TDs
Branch hasn’t played in all 16 games since Seattle acquired him from New England. He’s also a receiver that’s never eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark, and with Houshmandzadeh in town, it’s a virtual certainty Branch doesn’t see 1,000 yards in 2009. With Burleson being the big play TD threat, Branch won't see the endzone as often, but may get more yards. I was surprised to see that Branch was drafted higher and more often than Burleson. Fantasy Forecast: 550 total yards, 2 total TDs
Ok, I suppose it wouldn’t be a terrible thing if you ended up with Julius Jones in the late rounds. There are much better options for your reserve RB, but they are worse options as well. Jones showed some signs of "wow" in 2008, and he should have some favourable match-ups in 2009 as well. T.J. Duckett will likely steal any goal line carries away from Jones. There are better options in the late 90s, early 100s to find yourself a solid reserve RB. Fantasy Forecast: 1000 total yards, 3 total TDs
Seattle Team DEF
Seattle Team DEF finished 2008 16th in scoring, 4th in 2007. The team’s defense was last in the NFL in passing defense, yet the fantasy unit remained productive. The team had a drop off in INTs in ’08 (11) compared to ’07 (20); they also dipped in sacks (35 in ’08; 45 in ’07). A healthy Patrick Kerney can easily make up for those 10 sacks by himself. Seattle’s first three matchups are favourable (vs. STL, @ SF, vs. CHI), so picking them up from the waiver wire before the season begins isn’t a bad idea. Fantasy Forecast: 42 sacks, 17 INTs, 10 FR, 2 TDs, 1 Blk Kick
Ask the Nation
Where will the Seattle defense finished ranked amongst Team DEF in 2009?
* all fantasy stats are based on 2007-2008 Yahoo! Standard Public league scoring