Mining your way to fantasy gold - Seahawks Edition
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 3, 2009 4:00 PM PDT
in Fantasy Football
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PrintHello again Nation. Before you read today's column, I want to make something clear. Your input is greatly appreciated in any form. If you have any suggestions on what you'd rather read about, I want to know. If there's something in particular you want to know more about, I also want to know. And honestly, if you feel like ripping me a new one, I will not suggest otherwise (ok, perhaps I will defend myself if necessary). Any idea, thought-bubble or inquiry that pops into your mind, let me know about it. Unless its concerning which type of milk you should buy (2% or 1%), in that case, I don't have any answers for you (I've never seen 2% chocolate milk). Enjoy...
Today, I am going to take a look at the 2009 Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Forecast. The NFC West rivals have some pretty formidable fantasy options, and I’ve got a sleeper at the end of the column followed by a question for the Nation. Seattle has a good WR1 option, and a potential steal with a later round QB and an emerging fantasy stud at TE.
Notable Seahawks results (based on 30 mock drafts):
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T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR – Avg. Selection* 41; Percent Drafted 100%
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John Carlson TE – Avg. Selection 104; Percent Drafted 100%
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Matt Hasselbeck QB – Avg. Selection 116; Percent Drafted 100%
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Deion Branch WR – Avg. Selection 119; Percent Drafted 100%
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Nate Burleson WR – Avg. Selection 134; Percent Drafted 77%
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Julius Jones RB – Avg. Selection 107; Percent Drafted 73%
* - 100th selection = 10th pick round 10 (10 man); 6th pick round 9 (12 man); 3rd pick round 8 (14 man)
After the jump, I take a look at which guys you should draft, and which Seahawks you might want to avoid...
DRAFT THESE GUYS
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
In 2008, Housh struggled and finished 31st in scoring amongst WRs (a big drop from 2007’s 7th finish). Houshmandazadeh’s numbers can be blamed on several things, most notably a sub-par QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick). Seattle signed Houshmandzadeh to be Matt Hasselbeck’s primary target. It will be interesting to see how Houshmandzadeh produces as a team’s number one WR, and he’s a lower-tier WR1, and a top-tier WR2. Fantasy Forecast: 1100 total yards, 9 total TDs
Matt Hasselbeck
The one sure thing you can say about Hasselbeck’s 2008 season: It was a disaster. Hasselbeck is returning for an injury plagued 2008, and while there’s no guarantee he can return to 2007 form, he will be a valuable fantasy option in 2009. Hasselbeck was the 8th scoring QB in 2007, and set career highs in both TDs and yards. The prospect of getting a healthy Hasselbeck is certainly worth a pick in the 100s. At the very least, he’s a fantastic back up that you can rotate in during favourable match-ups. Fantasy Forecast: 3300 pass yards, 25 pass TDs, 13 INTs
John Carlson
The second year tight end has the potential to emerge as a top 10 fantasy tight end in 2009 and beyond. In 2008, Carlson’s debut season, the rookie TE impressed everyone by finishing 7th amongst TEs in scoring. Much of Carlson’s success can be attributed to the fact that Carlson was one of the few receiving targets Seattle had healthy for a majority of the season. To say the very least, Carlson stepped up and proved himself to a reliable set of hands. Even with a healthier team in 2009, Carlson’s numbers should improve. He’s a fantastic bargain in the late 90s-low 100s, and worth starting every week. Fantasy Forecast: 800 total yards, 6 total TDs
DON'T DRAFT THESE GUYS
Nate Burleson
Don’t draft Nate, despite his 2007 TD totals (9). Burleson was injured much of 2008 (like every Seahawk), and aside from 2007, hasn’t done much since signing with Seattle. He is a speedy, big play threat, but I cannot see him putting up anywhere close to 700 yards and 9 TDs (his 2007 totals) in 2009. In a deep 14+ man league, Burleson might be worth a look, but keep in mind he’s a bottom-tier WR3. Fantasy Forecast: 500 total yards, 5 total TDs
Deion Branch
Branch hasn’t played in all 16 games since Seattle acquired him from New England. He’s also a receiver that’s never eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark, and with Houshmandzadeh in town, it’s a virtual certainty Branch doesn’t see 1,000 yards in 2009. With Burleson being the big play TD threat, Branch won't see the endzone as often, but may get more yards. I was surprised to see that Branch was drafted higher and more often than Burleson. Fantasy Forecast: 550 total yards, 2 total TDs
Julius Jones
Ok, I suppose it wouldn’t be a terrible thing if you ended up with Julius Jones in the late rounds. There are much better options for your reserve RB, but they are worse options as well. Jones showed some signs of "wow" in 2008, and he should have some favourable match-ups in 2009 as well. T.J. Duckett will likely steal any goal line carries away from Jones. There are better options in the late 90s, early 100s to find yourself a solid reserve RB. Fantasy Forecast: 1000 total yards, 3 total TDs
Seattle Sleeper
Seattle Team DEF
Seattle Team DEF finished 2008 16th in scoring, 4th in 2007. The team’s defense was last in the NFL in passing defense, yet the fantasy unit remained productive. The team had a drop off in INTs in ’08 (11) compared to ’07 (20); they also dipped in sacks (35 in ’08; 45 in ’07). A healthy Patrick Kerney can easily make up for those 10 sacks by himself. Seattle’s first three matchups are favourable (vs. STL, @ SF, vs. CHI), so picking them up from the waiver wire before the season begins isn’t a bad idea. Fantasy Forecast: 42 sacks, 17 INTs, 10 FR, 2 TDs, 1 Blk Kick
Ask the Nation
Where will the Seattle defense finished ranked amongst Team DEF in 2009?
* all fantasy stats are based on 2007-2008 Yahoo! Standard Public league scoring
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Killing me Dre...
It’s all about the Soy Milk.
The cake is a lie.
by Sultan of Seitan on Aug 3, 2009 4:01 PM PDT reply actions
FootballOutsiders' KUBIAK predictions call for Julius Jones to have a big year.
Check it out here.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
Probably KUBIAK’s most controversial projection this year
he also says:
Jones’ big year is predicated on the idea that the Seahawks will improve — and thus run out the clock more frequently
My thoughts on that: when the Hawks are winning perhaps Duckett becomes the LenDale White of Seattle? White is the run-it-out-while-ahead back in Tennessee, do the Seahawks envision Duckett as this? I don’t think Julius Jones is going to be on the field for down and short distances, and that really hurts his fantasy value, because he’s going to have to explode to produce.
Jones does have some favourable match-ups, but there are better players you can draft at pick 110.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 3, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I have to disagree
I think Duckett will steal most of the goalline carries, but Jones should still get 220-250 touches or so. I don’t think Duckett will be used nearly as much as Lendale White was last year. Also, if you look at the numbers you projected (or maybe someone else did), you wrote for Jones: 1000 total yards, 3 total TD’s. That would work out to 118 fantasy points (assuming standard scoring).
Now I’ll use pick 110 since you brought that up. I have the Rotoworld rankings in front of me and here are the RB’s ranked from 100-115 overall along with their projected fantasy points:
Darren Sproles 113
Leron McClain 112
Ahmad Bradshaw 111
Jerious Norwood 110
Chester Taylor 109
Willis McGahee 108
Laurence Maroney 107
(Actually, it’s odd that they’d be projected one point below each other in order, and that makes me question the rankings, but that’s another story.) Anyway, all of those RB’s are projected by Rotoworld to score less than your Jones projection, which I think is conservative. And I don’t any of them have good odds of reaching 1000 yards (unless Norwood sees a lot more carries because of Turner’s workload last year).
Basically, I see Jones as a good fantasy bet, at least for his draft status. Just my opinion though, and he’s already been picked in the league I’m in this year so he won’t be on my team. ;-)
by Brendan Scolari on Aug 4, 2009 1:59 AM PDT up reply actions
excellent comment
and I’m not trying to steer you away from rotoworld, or convince of anything other than this:
1000 total yards, 3 TDs = not conservative
Jones has only had 1000 or more total yards twice in his career; he’s scored 3 TDs or more, 3 times.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 4, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
But
He’s also had more than 200 carries only twice in his career, and both times he eclipsed 1200 total yards. And I don’t see any way (barring injury) that he doesn’t get to 200 carries. I also think his TD’s last year were flukishly (is that a word?) low, and combined with the rebounding of the Seahawks offense should give him at least 4-5 scores.
This is not to say that I think Jones is a good RB. I’ve argued recently that he’s a huge weakness for the Seahawks offense, but barring a Justin Forsett miracle explosion I think Jones will see lots of carries, making him just as valuable as other marginal starters like Willie Parker, Larry Johnson, or Jamal Lewis. After all, in fantasy opportunity = points.
by Brendan Scolari on Aug 4, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Jamal Lewis &
JL there is a guy I wont touch in fantasy drafts or anytime else.
Julius Jones has only had two seasons with 5 or more TDs and has never had a recieving TD in his career. Only rushed for 1000 once. 698y rushing (68 recieving), in 15 games, with only 2 TDs last year. I wouldn’t touch this guy in a ten man league. He also killed me when I picked him up midseason last year, so I’m bitter.
Bernard, Percy and AP oh my!
I wouldn't touch Lewis either
I still see Jones as a good RB3 at least though.
by Brendan Scolari on Aug 4, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
larry johnson
I would much rather have than Jones.
in the two years Jones had 1200+ apyards (2005, 2006), he amassed 292 touches (2005) and 276 (2006).
I don’t see Jones touching the ball 270+ times for the Seahawks, and therefore I only see 1000 total yards and 3 TDs.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 4, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Fair enough
I think LJ is done, I wouldn’t touch him near his ADP. But I guess we’ll see.
by Brendan Scolari on Aug 4, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
his ADP
is much higher than his value, but still, I’d take him over Jones.
I’ve seen LJ fall through the cracks in some of the mock drafts, but overall I agree his ADP is a bit inflated.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 4, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
What makes you like him over Jones?
I don’t see him reaching 1000 yards this season, although he could pick up some TD’s.
by Brendan Scolari on Aug 4, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
LJ
despite his poor 2008 season, he still managed to finish with 900+ total yards and 5 total TDs. This, after KC went to spread offense towards the better half of the season.
He missed 4 games, and when he returned KC’s Spread offense had taken over and LJ’s touches decreased.
Injury is a factor with Grandma-ma, but his upside as a yardage hound and TD factory can’t be ruled out. He turns 30 in November, so there’s definitely enough warning sirens going off about LJ. However, I think a Johnson that plays in 14 games can ecplise 1000 total yards in 2009.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 4, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions
1200 total yards, and he had 5, and 4 TDs respectively
In fantasy land, that is not a very good option.
by forwardlateral on Aug 4, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Running out the clock doesnt help fanatasy that much
It’s not quite in the same boat as teams that get blown out and their receivers.
In general, when ahead the team will run the ball to keep the clock moving, but if they aren’t a running team in the first place, they probably aren’t going to be picking up first downs rushing the ball in the 4th, so short passes become more likely.
That said Julius Jones has to at least be better than last year. Right?
He’s at least the 31st best starting running back in the league( ahead of benson)
If I gotta play, I'm gonna play 'till I win,
Since I gotta be here, I can´t wait to begin
by albertoleecho on Aug 4, 2009 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Although I hate to say it..........
I think he will have a good year, simply because the QB is proven when healthy, and Mora had one of the leagues top rushing attacks in ATL. I know Vick was there, but Dunn had great years there.
aka Optimist Prime 09...........9ers (site decorum)
Julius Jones
Has broken 1000 yards once in his 5 year career. His career high in Tds? 7, and that was his rookie season. Since then, he’s posted 5, 4, 2 and 2. Sure his YPC was good last year (4.4), but his touches won’t go up, you can almost guarantee that. He’s not meant to be a 20-25 touch per game guy.
Seattle’s O-line was horrible last season, and Hassleback was terrible (in the 7 games he played his QB rating was below 60). Seattle didn’t do much to improve their O-line, IMO, and I really don’t see how Jones is going to much of a fantasy factor. It will be status quo for him, which is about 600 yards, and a couple of TDs.
just for the record
I’m saying Jones has 1000 total yards (rushing and receiving)
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 4, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions
"Seattle didn’t do much to improve their O-line, IMO,"
All 5 starting offensive linemen were eventually placed on Injured Reserve. Return to health alone should be an improvement over the practice squad players and 4th stringers they had that composed their line in the latter half of the season.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Aug 4, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Wahle did just retire
and Jones’ injury is likely minor but the coaches are being very careful with him – they know he’s only got so many playing-hours left in his ancient body. The talk though is that he’ll be in for the opener and likely start more games than he’ll miss.
Otherwise, we also added O-line depth with Max Unger and a couple others.
Fearless Frog^^ had the most pertinent point though.
Glenn Beck likes argument, but has a deap-seated hatred for logic.
The only viable fantasy option is Carlson
Housh was GREAT with Ocho beside him in Cincy. I’d let some other sucker take him in the early rounds. Housh will see constant double teams in Seattle, and Hasselback will be forced to find other options. Burleson is awful, and Branch can’t stay healthy. When he does, his fantasy line week to week is usually 1 catch, 19 yards, 2 catches 34 yards, 8 catches, 140 yards, 2 TDs, 1 catch 8 yards, etc.
Carlson is the only Seahawk I’d consider picking, albeit in the later rounds after guys have wasted early picks on Gates, Gonzalez, Winslow and Shockey
Why would Gates be a wasted pick?
A bitnitpicky, but I’m curious as to why you’d group him with those other TE’s.
by Brendan Scolari on Aug 4, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
It wasn't a bash on Gates
I just don’t think taking a TE early is a smart move, period.
by forwardlateral on Aug 4, 2009 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Nate Burleson isn't awful.
As pointed out above, he might not get 700+ yards and 9 TDs again, but he’s a solid player and probably a good third option at WR, depending on what the Hawks like to do in the redzone.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Aug 4, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
He's a good third option
In a 20 team league, maybe. I can think of at least 50 Wrs I’d rather have on my Fantasy team than Burleson. In his 3 years with the Hawks, he’s played 20 games. He’s a human injury. He had one fluke year with Minnesota (if I’m not mistaken, Randy Moss was opposite him), and a decent year 3 seasons ago with the Hawks. He was overrated when Seattle signed him, and he’s overrated now. I wouldn’t pick this guy for my fantasy team if the last 2 Wrs were him and Isaac Bruce.
by forwardlateral on Aug 4, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Played, or started in?
I’m not sure what the exact figure is, but 20 games played seems low considering how often I’ve seen him on the field. And if I’m not mistaken, the torn ACL last season in week 1 that caused him to miss 15 weeks (the rest of the season) was his first major injury as a Seahawk.
And for the record, Burleson’s great season with Minnesota was when Randy Moss went down to injury.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Aug 4, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Started 20
played in 33. And I predict the following stat line for him this season:
24 recs, 324 yards, and 2 TDs
All comes down to a healthy Hasselbeck
If he is healthy he will take the pressure off the running game and open things up for Julius. While extra attention was paid to Ocho(the Chad), I see Housh having better #’s than last year.
Housh is also a better option than anybody H-beck had in 2007, when he posted 28tds to 12ints and 3966yrds passing. I gotta think TJ is up for 10tds this year.
Carlson season will follow the same path. If H-beck is healthy, than Carlson is a #1 TE option.
I wouldn’t draft Nate, but don’t be shocked if he puts up 8tds. Don’t be shocked if he doesn’t. Not worth the risk.
Bernard, Percy and AP oh my!
If Nate Burleson puts up 8+ TDs
I’ll buy you a six pack of cold beverages.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 4, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
H-Beck will open things up for the running game but...
Julius still is worth drafting.
Bernard, Percy and AP oh my!
8 TD's for Burleson?
I can’t see that happening.
by Brendan Scolari on Aug 4, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't see that, either.
Duckett will likely vulture the goal line TDs. Julius might be good for a few long TDs, at best. Housh and Carlson will likely be almost all of the passing TDs. Unless the Seahawks overall offense really explodes and looks like 2007 (and then some), there just aren’t enough TDs to go around for Burleson.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Aug 4, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't get me wrong, I think Housh will be solid
I’m just saying, let some other sucker take Housh in the first 2 rounds.
by forwardlateral on Aug 4, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
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