around 50? What’s it like, 3?

My theory of Niner improvement from last year to this year hinges not so much on improvement of talent (although that’s happening) but on the coaching. That’s why some prognosticators, like those at Football Outsiders, aren’t to be fully trusted.

Blocking for a seven-step drop will give you different results (and stats) than blocking for an off-tackle handoff or a quick slant after a two-step drop. The reason why no one scooped up Mike Martz to run their offense after Singletary fired him is because his theory of offense doesn’t work anymore. Even when it worked Warner was beaten to a pulp. Believe me, the rest of the league paid attention to JTO ending up prone and how less than elite Niners pass receivers functioned in the Martz system. The fact that JT O’Sullivan has been playing somewhat more effectively for the Bengals in preseason is not so much a result of how much more talent he has this year but rather what a bad scheme Martz’s offense was.

That is, Nolan would have won more games last year if he had only hired an offensive coordinator that ran a normal offense, all other things being equal.

There is no doubt in my mind that the offensive line will be improved from last year (if Snyder is healthy), and that along with a better run game should result in much fewer sacks. I would feel better if I had more confidence in the passing game itself (which we hopefully haven’t really seen much of) but I think the sack won’t be as much of a drive killer as last year.

On the same theory (although not as dramatic) I expect the Niner defense to be improved because Nolan is no longer interfering with them and inserting overly complicated and ultimately ineffective schemes. How many times did the defense have to call a time out to get the right package on the field? Terrible.

My two cents.

My guess is they give up 35 again, same as 2006 (thx drummer for looking that up). That’s almost exactly an average of 2 per game. Some games more (@ Philly, @ Indy) and perhaps some none (vs STL, vs Jax). That was also the season where the running game was solid and the priority, and I think the overall talent on offense is better than then (even if Raye is not as good as Norv).

Talent and scheme are the biggest factors. IMO, the O-line talent is better than average at all positions with potential for Rachal to grow and immediate Pro-Bowl potential with Staley and Heitmann. Scheme will help with shorter drops, quicker passes and more run plays. The focus on the run will cause defenses to place stopping of the run their highest priority, unlike last season. Having an upgrade at WRs does not hurt.

Beyond that, improved pocket presence from the QB and better blitz pickup from the RBs (thx in part to coach Rathman) should make small improvements. Finally, for full context the score will dictate a great deal. Trailing vs leading or tied in the 4th quarter affects play calling. I expect most Niner games this year, win or loss, to be decided by ten points or less so the runnng game will most always still be a threat. That too will help.

Fooch – Thanks for bringing up the opportunity for full context on this.

One thing I haven’t seen mentioned is a successful passing game. If the opponent’s defense is burned on blitzing, they’ll do it less often. But given the anemic passing threat so far, expect the Dallas approach of sending in more defenders to block running lanes and sack the QB, which in turn makes the O line demoralized. A number two receiver, Morgan or Battle, needs to emerge with some big catches.

After that I can make real assessment of the pass protection and of Hill. I know what I say last year and that wasn’t bad. Certainly much better than we saw Sat. Also it seems to me that as Vetigo alluded to above is that this offense will rely on a potent running game that will draw in the LB. and safeties In addition ( my assumption) there will a good mix of short to mid yardage passing attack using the backs and TE.s which will also make the opposition to play close. Once this begins to work we will see some mid to deep balls which I assume will have some level of success.

All of that will begin to spreed the definses and open up the offense.

That is the strategy that will allow the Niners time to develop Davis as the QB of the future. Then we can have the whole enchilada

Frankly, I am much more worried bout the DL than the OL. If you can’t pass block, you can at least try to run the ball… but if you can’t rush the passer, you are going to be behind all the time… and will have to pass…

on knee, the AP reports; out 2-3 weeks.

The overall sack numbers will be lower, simply due to less dropbacks, less prolonged dropbacks, and far more conservative play calls. However, on a per dropback basis, the sack rate will still be bottom 10ish in the NFL.

I don’t think the line is bad. Other than Heitmann they’re all relatively young. Better coaching and better offensive philosophy and play calling should all help. Time will tell but I don’t think it’s a talent issue so it being the same line (minus Sims and Jennings) is fine by me.