Mining your way to fantasy gold - Week 1 Edition
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 12, 2009 12:49 PM PDT
in Fantasy Football
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PrintIn the immortal words of Zack De La Rocha "It has to start some time, it has to start somewhere. What better place then here? What better time than now?" That's correct ladies, gentlemen and Raiders fans, the 2009 season is officially underway this weekend (with the exception of Thursday's OT "thriller"). Finally, the 2009 San Francisco 49ers will be taking the field in Arizona come Sunday, and hopefully the wait was worth the suspense. In this week's edition of MYWFG, I take a look at some sit/start matchups.
Sit
Clinton Portis RB Washington Redskins @ New York Giants - Of all the opponents the Redskins face in the NFC East, the Giants have been the team that Portis has seen the least amount of success against (in terms of yards). Portis has scored 6 total TDs against the Giants in 9 games versus New York, but I don't expect him to hit paydirt this Sunday. The Miami product has averaged 78 yards rushing against the Giants, and he'll struggle to meet that number against one of the league's premier run defenses. Week 1 Forecast: 70 total yards, 0 TDs, 1 FL
Brett Favre QB Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns - Favre vs. the Browns seems like a great match up, but don't expect it to be the case. Cleveland was second in the NFL in interceptions last year with 23, and allowed around 205 passing yards per game. I'm not 100% sure the total number or receiving TDs the Browns allowed, but I do know they allowed 151 rushing yards per contest, which boads very well for Adrian Peterson and the Vikings ground game. Favre may not even attemp 20 passes in this game, as the Vikings should run all over Cleveland. Week 1 Forecast: 175 pass yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
Vincent Jackson WR San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders - Anytime a team's number 1 WR is going up against Nnamdi Osomugha it's a good idea not to start him, as is the case with Jackson. In Jackson's five career games against the Raiders, he's averaged 41 yards receiving and scored just 1 TD. While Jackson could somehow sneak his way to the end zone on Monday, his receiving totals won't justify his place in your starting lineup. I also wouldn't recommend expecting a TD; hopefully you have a reliable bench WR to insert in Jackson's place. Week 1 Forecast: 40 total yards, 0 TDs
After the jump, I'll recommend some guys you should think about starting....
Start
Ray Rice RB Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs were on of the worst teams defending the run in 2008, and I don't expect much to change in Week 1 versus Baltimore. Ray Rice is the starter for the Ravens, and is a speedy multi-dimensional threat (he catches passes). Even with a crowded backfield, Rice should produce the most on Sunday, and hog a majority of the carries while remaining effective. In other words, there won't be many reasons for Baltimore to sub out Rice, unless he's extremely gassed from ripping off huge gains. Week 1 Forecast: 120 total yards, 1 TD
Carson Palmer QB Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos - Denver's defense was a mess in 2008, as they struggled against the pass (just 6 INTs). Carson Palmer returns to 2009 with high hopes and a pretty good receiving corps, although questions may linger about Palmer's health. I don't expect Palmer's ankle to hold him back from having a productive day against Denver, especially since the game could wind up being a shoot-out. Start Palmer without worry, and he'll reward you nicely. Week 1 Forecast: 250 pass yards, 2 PaTDs, 0 INTs
Donnie Avery WR St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks - Injuries prevented Seattle from having any kind of secondary in 2008, as the team was the worst in the NFL at stopping the pass. While St. Louis isn't stacked with many WR options, Donnie Avery is a speedster that will find ways to keep the Rams in the game Sunday. Avery has recovered from a foot injury and will start in the divisional match-up, so expect him to put up some good numbers and his way into the endzone. Week 1 Forecast: 80 total yards, 1 TD
Check Back in next week to see just how bad I was at recommending these match-ups, as I track and break my analysis each week. If I make a foolish prediction, I'll be the first to tell you about it after the games have been played. Like if Brett Favre goes out and throws for 300 yards and 3 TDs, I'll be prepared to take the heat (don't bank on it happening).
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ZDLR
Is pretty great, not to be off topic here. Though I have to wonder if you’re only familiar with the line because of Madden. :x
certainly not
been a RATM fan since 1992.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 12, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Choices
Hey Andrew, I’m just curious as to how you made your choices for who to start/sit. Out of hundreds of players, how did you narrow it down to these 6?
well
I definitely couldn’t do a sit/start for all 100 players, so I focused on some tougher match-ups.
I mean, there are a ton of players you never want to sit no matter the match-up. And I certainly didn’t want to make a list of players you know who should be starting.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 12, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I have a question..
I have Portis starting this week. I would sit him but i’m not sure if anyone on my bench will have a better chance of getting me the same amount or more points than Portis. These are the players I have on my bench..
RB – Darren Sproles SD, Fred Jackson BUF
WR – Kevin Walter HOU, Earl Bennett CHI
Also I have a question on my starting line up vs my bench in general for whether or not you think I have the right guys starting for week 1.
Starting:
QB – Philip Rivers
RB – Maurice Jones-Drew, LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis
WR – Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall
TE – Chris Cooley
K – Mason Crosby
Bench:
QB – Donovan McNabb
RB – Darren Sproles, Fred Jackson
WR – Kevin Walter, Earl Bennett
TE – Visanthe Shiancoe
Unavailable:
RB – Marshawn Lynch
I think Walter is out for week 1
Nice handcuffs for your 2 RB’s. I would probably start Fred Jackson in place of Portis. Bennett, in my mind, is considered a sleeper pick, he could have a big game Sunday night, since the Bears say that he catches everything that Cutler throws. So, i think it’s up to you on either Bennett or Jackson, i personally would go with Jackson
by sundaysfinest on Sep 12, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for the advice :)
I’m in one more league also, two positions are already unavailable since i played White and Ward “i shouldn’t have played either of them do to their teams having great defenses lol”. This is my starting line up with the available spots vs my bench. I feel that everyone is where they should be but another opinion never hurt. =)
Starting:
QB – Matt Hasslebeck
RB – DeAngelo Williams
WR – Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston
TE – Tony Gonzalez
D/ST – Packers
K – Mason Crosby
Bench:
QB – Matt Schaub
WR – Josh Morgan, Percy Harvin, Ramses Barden
RB – James Davis
TE – Kevin Boss
D/ST – Panthers
Unavailable:
RB – Lendale White
WR – Hines Ward
.. I know its kind of funny in one league i’m stacked with receivers in the other i’m stacked with running backs lol
Ramses Barden....
you must’ve had a deep draft to get to him. Team looks ok, toss up between the 2 Matt’s.
by sundaysfinest on Sep 12, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I have a question also
I need to chose two players to start from the following:
Roy Williams (at Tampa Bay)
Anthony Gonzalez (vs Jacksonville)
Eddie Royal (at Cincinnati)
I managed to get Michael Fabiano to answer two questions, he said:
Royal over Williams
Royal over Gonzalez
WTF?
I guess I have to start Royal now, so Williams or Gonzalez?
(ESPN projects Gonzalez to have a bad week 1)
NOTE: I also have Jericho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles on the bench but I don’t want to start Cotchery because I think Keller (my TE) will be targeted more and Coles shouldn’t see too many targets since Chad Ochocinco is planning a “storm”
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
Coles
might be the best start for you, considering Ochocinco will be facing Champ Bailey all day and the Broncos defense isn’t very solid.
Gonzo or Williams should be ok in the future, but Roy’s shoulder is iffy and Gonzo does face pretty good competition in Jacksonville’s secondary. I’d honestly start Coles over both of those guys, but Gonzo over Williams if I didn’t have the nuts to bench both.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 12, 2009 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't mean to be an ass...
but what’s the point of playing fantasy football if your roster is always predicated by what someone else suggests/tells you that it should be? Not trying to get all blanket statement on anyone by saying that that’s all you’re doing, but I’ve just never been able to understand how there can be any thrill involved in fantasy sports unless it’s just you calling all the shots for your team.
Do your own research. Look up stats, consider opponents and player strengths/weakness and, perhaps most importantly, go with your gut. Anything else is just checking the colored boxes. Bragging rights mean nothing if you never really made your own choices.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
yeah i understand
I still have Portis starting.. i just like getting other people’s opinions and compare it to what i would do just so i’m not sittin on the fence.thanks for your 2 cents on it though :)…
oh and shlecko be prepared to see this score at the end of Sunday’s game 49ers @ Cardinals 21 – 17
I hope so...
though hoping isn’t expecting.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
(OT) what a finish in ann arbour
back to On Topic – I agree shlecko that you shouldn’t rely on someone else’s opinion to win you fantasy football contests.
However, I can’t look stupid if I don’t make suggestions.
And hopefully the 49ers win by 4 pts tomorrow, I’ve got a pretty decent payout if my 6 games play out the way they should. For some reason I decided to inlcude the 49ers in my first week of gambling, which generally means I’ll lose.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 12, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions
i agree
i don’t like people who win championships(fantasy) off of other peoples suggestions. I go pretty deep in my research and stats before and after the draft. Waiver wire is very important, rarely do you see someone win a championship with original draft lineup. Don’t ask Fabiano, the difference between him and you is that he gets paid to have an opinion, like shlecko said go with your gut.
by sundaysfinest on Sep 12, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
or, like those of us who are crazy, you read start/sit predictions by 10-15 different someone elses/“experts” – then you list all the pros and cons against each other in a huge battle inside your own brain, and finally choose who to start.
I’ve been wrestling over whether to start Vincent Jackson against Nnamdi Osomugha, Anthony Gonzalez in Jacksonville, Josh Morgan OR Devin Hester for my last WR spot. After everything I’ve read and thought through – I’m starting Hester this week because I believe that no matter how good Green Bay’s defense is, Cutler is going to be forced to throw more than usual since Aaron Rodgers has the talent to throw like crazy against good defenses.
I could be wrong about this week – but reading discussions like this one started by Andrew just helps fuel the discussion I have with myself every week. It’s useful.
"Those boos really motivate me to make something happen." - Bonds
I NEVER brag
So bragging rights are non-existent to me.
I just like getting other people’s opinions, it makes it more fun.
If the people that advised me on here are wrong I’m not going to come back on here and blame everyone else….because in the end it always comes down to me.
What’s the point of playing fantasy football if you can’t talk about it?
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Sep 12, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I play for fun
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Sep 12, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions
With the above comments in mind.....
Who would you rather have:
Jeremy Maclin or Hakeem Nicks?
(I’m going to drop VD)
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
Kenny Britt is available too
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Sep 12, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Kenny Britt looked pretty good on Thursday night.
I would say that he looks to become a consistent target of Kerry Collins, but then it would also be worth noting that TEN won’t be going up against Pittsburgh’s defense every week – they’re going to run the ball a lot more than we saw in that game.
Between the other two, I’d have to take a wait-and-see approach. The fact that Kevin Curtis spent almost all of last season on the sideline and wasn’t all that impressive when he did finally play, it’s possible that Maclin could become the #2 WR (though really still the third target behind DeSean and Brian Westbrook) in what I expect to be a pass-happy offense this year in Philly. Similarly, I could see Hakeem Nicks catching a lot of balls in a Giants uniform, but the likelihood of that team needing anything more than another possession-type receiver are slim. Still, he sits higher on the depth chart than the other two.
Watch the games this week and keep an eye out during the next few games – at all times ready to swipe one of these guys off the waiver wire if they catch fire. For right now, though, I’d say it’s too early to name any of them better than another…but I’d give the edge to Nicks if I had to pick one guy.
My pessimism goes to the point of suspecting the sincerity of the pessimists.
I dropped Vernon Davis and picked up Nicks earlier today
I figure VD has less value than Nicks and if Nicks does play well tomorrow I’ll already have him on my roster.
I’ll be watching the other two though.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Sep 12, 2009 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions
i have VD and will keep him as starter all year
1 because I am a fan
2 I think he will put up good numbers this year
3 TE dont produce alot of points anyways (usually)
Quick Update
Portis – 72 total yards
Favre – 115 pass yards, 1 paTD
Palmer – 241 pass yards, 2 INT (although 1 really shouldn’t count for fantasy purposes)
Avery – 54 total yards, 1 FL (d’oh!)
Ray Rice – 120 total yards, 0 TDs (hey, at least I had the total yards on the money)
Vincent Jackson – still to come on MNF.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 13, 2009 5:21 PM PDT reply actions
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