Mining your way to fantasy gold - Sit/Start Edition Sep. 18/2009
Just a quick reminder about the fantasy mailbag, remember to send me any comments or questions. I've received a few already, and an interesting debate could emerge. A Niners Nation member asked me "Do I start Joe Flacco vs. SD or Matt Hasselbeck vs. SF?". My initial response was start Hasselbeck, despite the strong outing the 49ers defense showed in Week 1. I've added a poll to this column, and want to know your input as well.
Flacco put up huge numbers against the Chiefs; surprising, shocking numbers (307 yards, 3 TDs). Can he repeat the feat against San Diego? The Chargers held JaMarcus Russell in check primarly (40% completion, 2 INTs) and are a much better team defensively than the Chiefs. Also, the Ravens have a carnival of running backs to throw at San Diego's front seven and should play a much more "Baltimore"-style offense in Week 2.
Hasselbeck on the other hand looked awful in the first half against St. Louis, throwing two interceptions. However, he later regained composure (that and the Rams were the opponent) and threw 3 TDs and went for over 200 yards passing. San Francisco pressured Kurt Warner all day long, but Warner still managed 288 yards passing (with 2 INTs). When the 49ers defense shuts down Seattle's run game, Hasselbeck will be forced to go to the air. While the 49ers will win the game, Matt Hasselbeck will keep the Seahawks close.
Sit
Joe Flacco QB BAL @ SD - Week 2 Forecast: 175 pass yards, 1 INTs, 1 TD
Start
Matt Hasselbeck SEA @ SF - Week 2 Forecast: 250 pass yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
After the jump, the rest of my sit/start suggestions...
Sit
Carnell Williams RB TB @ BUF - The Buffalo Defense played a pretty good game against New England. I expect the Bills to be able to make the Bucs one dimensional, and shut down the run in the process. Williams went for 97 yards and 1 TD (on 13 touches); if he gets that few touches this week, expect much smaller numbers. Week 2 Forecast: 50 total yards, 0 TDs
Start
Darren Sproles RB SD vs. BAL - Am I crazy or what? I'm suggesting your start a RB versue the Ravens defense, after the Ravens held Larry Johnson to 20 yards rushing and Jamaal Charles 8. Well, LaDanian Tomlinson is facing a nagging injury (Fooch Note: LDT ruled out), and Philip Rivers will keep Baltimore much more honest against the pass than Brodie Croyle could ever dream of. Sproles is shifty, and if you can hit him, it doesn't matter how punishing the front seven is. Week 2 Forecast: 100 total yards, 1 TD
Sit
Devery Henderson WR NO @ PHI - Fact: Henderson has had back to back 100 yards game once in his career. You can date that back to November 2006. Drew Brees may find success against the Eagles, but it will be his primary targets, not Henderson. It seemed the Lions forgot about Henderson in Week 1, and I don't expect the Eagles to make that mistake. It will be wise for the Saints to run the ball against Philly, and I expect them to do so, limiting Henderson's chances. Week 2 Forecast: 40 total yards, 0 TDs
Start
Vernon Davis TE SF vs. SEA - Homer alert! Yep, it's true, I have sentiment involved in this one. Remember the last time Vernon Davis played Seattle in San Francisco? I bet you do, he was sent to the showers early by interim Head Coach Mike Singletary. Well, in 2009, things have change greatly; Singletary is completely in charge and Vernon Davis is a team captain. I expect Vernon to send a message to Seattle, and San Francisco: "I'm here." Week 2 Forecast: 85 total yards, 1 TD
Sit
Philadelphia Team DEF vs. NO - Drew Brees was sacked the least amount of times in 2008 in the entire league. Philly's defense destroyed Jake Delhomme, getting 5 sacks and 5 INTs on the day while also scoring a TD. You can bet they won't near the sack total versus New Orleans, but they may be able to intercept Brees (just not 4 times like they did Delhomme). Overall, it will be wise to look elsewhere, but if you're like me, you only hang with one team defense. Definitely don't drop Philly in order to have a favourable match-up for one week. Week 2 Forecast: 28 pts allowed; 1 sack, 2 INTs
Start
New England Team DEF @ NYJ - The Patriots sacked Trent Edwards 4 times on Monday, but failed to cause an interception. The team only forced one turnover, but I expect the unit to rattle Mark Sanchez' cage all Sunday long. They should be able to create pressure and force the rookie into a few mistakes, while keeping the Jets in check and making up for Week 1's poor effort vs. BUF. Week 2 Forecast: 17 pts allowed; 5 sacks, 2 INTs, 1 TD
That wraps up my fantasy "analysis" for week 2, I'll see you guys next week with more "advice". Cheers, and may the 49ers win the pennant Super Bowl (well let's hope they start by beating Seattle this week).
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18 comments
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Comments
Shocking...
that the votes would suggest Niner fans think Hasselbeck isn’t a good start against their “vaunted” D.
I personally think, if you have Hasselbeck and Flacco as your two starting QB’s, you should have drafted a QB sooner. They’re both great 2nd QB’s with huge upside, but to start the season with the two of them is a risk in my eyes.
Mancrushed. Jake Locker for Heisman 2010.
by whiskey chainsaw on Sep 18, 2009 5:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's actually more of a lack of fatih in hasselbeck than anything about our D
though I’d say only a Seahawk fan would expect Hasselbeck, Branch, and TJH to fare better than Warner, Fitzgerald, and Boldin…
by foosball4949 on Sep 18, 2009 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Boldin was injured and Breaston was out.
Blanketing Fitzgerald is not so hard to do when that is the circumstance.
Then again, you think the Seahawks aren’t a good team because they only blew out the Rams and not squeaked by them like SF did last season.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Sep 18, 2009 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll give you the 17-16 was squeaking by last year.
But the 35-16 was a blow-out when we scored all 35 in the first half and only ran and played prevent in the second.
by Mullester on Sep 18, 2009 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not mention
Hill’s 158.3 QB Rating in the first half of that game.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 19, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention
That SD didn’t exactly inspire confidence in their ability to shut anyone down, given what the Raiders of all teams did to them.
by Deelron on Sep 18, 2009 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i know, to start the season with Hasslebeck.. such a risk.. he’s already thrown 2 INTs against the Rams. Think about how much worse it will get against the 49ers when they’re rushing him all game lol
by StevenC on Sep 18, 2009 5:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Vernon Davis is mostly useless as a passing option.
It doesn’t help he matches up against 2 OLBs both great in coverage.
“Hasselbeck on the other hand looked awful in the first half against St. Louis,”
First quarter.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Sep 18, 2009 7:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Isn't Leroy Hill out this weekend?
And is Aaron Curry to the other OLB you are referring to as great in coverage? I’m confused as to which LBs you are referring to Fearless one.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 19, 2009 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah me too Froggy… i’m confused.. Curry is soo great in coverage… in 1 game… against the LAMBS… wow… he’s Pro Bowl material right there, especially for how he played last week racking up a massive 4 total / solo tackles.. You can ride that white-pony of a drug dream right along into the game tomorrow, but when he proves you wrong don’t cry ok, and please save yourself the embarrassment and never ever compare Curry to Willis..
This is why…
Although Curry had an amazing game with awesome coverage which led to 4 tackles “I joke”, last week my boy P Willis recorded 13 total tackles, 11 of them solo, with 1 pass deflection and 1 interception all against Arizona. If Curry can do the same to the 49ers or Arizona this year I’ll give him the credit of being a great OLB with great coverage, but until than keep your beak shut dude.
by StevenC on Sep 19, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about for my league?
.5 PPR league:
Lendale White (vs. Texans), Donald Driver (vs. Bengals), Leon Washington (vs. Patriots), Knowhson Moreno (vs. Browns), Jamaal Charles (vs. Raiders), Kevin Curtis (vs. Saints), and Austin Collie (@ Dolphins).
Pick 2 of them, at least 1 must be a RB. Any help is appreciated.
by Brendan Scolari on Sep 18, 2009 11:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Donald Driver vs. CIN
Only because Driver was held in check last week, and the trends say he’ll score a TD this weekend:
2005: Week 1 Driver: 48 yards, Week 2: 105 yards, 1 TD
2006: Week 1 Driver: 96 yards, Week 2: 153 yards
2007: Week 1 Driver: 66 yards, Week 2: 73 yards, 1 TD
2008: Week 1 Driver: 38 yards, Week 2: 52 yards, 1 TD
2009: Week 1 Driver: 39 yards, Week 2: 75 yards, 1 TD
As for a RB, let’s take a look:
LenDale White: 4 Total TDs scored in 5 games vs. Houston (avg of 54 rypg)
Knoshown Moreno: Will he show up this week? He certainly was a let down last weekend.
Leon Washington: Thomas Jones had a very good week one, but Washington still had 19 total touches (15 carries, 4 catches) compared to Jones 20 total touches (all carries). I like the match-up against the Patriots, because if the Jets trail, Washington will see more action than Jones.
Jamaal Charles: I think it’s too early to be starting Charles, even against the Raiders and despite Larry Johnson’s poor week 1 performance.
I’d be tempted to start Leon over LenDale in this case, White will score a TD, but Washington will get more touches and yards. Flip a coin, Heads: White; Tails: Washington.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 19, 2009 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You really think because Driver didn't do much last week
That makes him more likely to score big this week? That seems likes faulty logic to me.
I think I will go with Lendale, but I’m still unsure about the flex spot. Driver, Moreno, or Washington? Hm…
by Brendan Scolari on Sep 19, 2009 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
look at the trends scolari
driver bounce back in week 2, and the Packers are playing Cincy in Green Bay. You’ll be putting 70 yards and a TD on the bench if you don’t start Driver.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 20, 2009 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know
I’m just saying I don’t think those trends mean much. i think I will go with Friver though.
by Brendan Scolari on Sep 20, 2009 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Results
Cadillac Williams – 65 total yards 1 TD (thanks to a nice cough up by Fred Jackson and hustle play by Rosoe Parrish)
Darren Sproles – 150 total yards 1 TD (I was off by 50 yards, a good effort by Sproles, but the Ravens pulled it out regardless)
Devery Henderson – 71 total yards, 0 TDs (no TDs, but he did put up a fair amount of yards on 3 catches)
Vernon Davis – 32 total yards, 0 TDs (he had all his catches 2 and yards in the first quarter, I thought for sure he’d have a big game based on that)
Philly Team D – 42 pts allowed (6 was on an INT return TD otherwise it’d be 48), 2 sacks, 1 safety, 1 INT
New England Team D – 16 pts allowed, 2 sacks, 1 FR (they didn’t give Sanchez too much pressure and Rex Ryan’s Jets backed up the smack talk)
I certainly did a bit better than last weekend.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 20, 2009 5:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
QBs
Flacco threw for 190, 2TDs, 1 INT.
Hasselbeck threw for 97 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, adding 12 yards rushing.
Flacco wasn’t a very good option, but I was wrong, as he was a better option than Hasselbeck.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 20, 2009 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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