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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

The 49ers in 2009 by the numbers: Special Teams

The 49ers special teams were one quarter special, one quarter solid, one quarter improving and one quarter awful.  I think we can all guess which quarter got special teams coordinator Al Everest "released from contract."  We know how awful the punt return game was, but as always, it's useful to go through the stats just to emphasize the ineptitude.  And of course we can see where the 49ers had success this season.

Special Teams Total
2009 DVOA: -0.6% (19th)
2008 DVOA: 4.6% (3rd)

We break down the reasons for this change below, but the big reason is of course the punt return number.  Florida Danny will have a better breakdown than me, but let's take an early look at the various units of the team.  We've mixed in the Football Outsiders' stats with some more traditional stats, all of which are telling about the special teams unit.

Punt Returns
Team Return Avg: 4.4 yards (32nd)
Longest return: 18 yards
Punt Return DVOA: -17.5% (32nd)

At the end of the season, the best punt return average among the healthy return men still on the roster?  Arnaz Battle and Brandon Jones tied at 2.9 yards per return.  FO breaks down the special teams into the units making it up and then provide rankings for each area.  The top punt return number in the league was 16.3, while the second worst number ahead of the 49ers was -10.4 from the Raiders.  Those disparities show the awfulness of the 49ers punt return unit, but we all know it was fairly easy to figure that out just by watching the unit week in and week out.  And when your longest punt return is only 4.5 yards longer than the league leader's average, well that's just not gonna be a good thing.

After the jump we look at the other three units...

Star-divide

Kick Returns
Team Return Avg: 21.8 yards (23rd)
Josh Morgan Return Avg: 28.2 yards (10th among all players with a return (his 13 returns did not qualify))
Kick Return DVOA: -3.6% (16th)

The 49ers struggled at times to develop their kick return game, but it definitely looked like a legit unit once Josh Morgan was moved back to return kicks.  The problem with this is that the team wants him to step up as their #2 wide receiver, and returning kicks opens him up to potential injuries.  We've had plenty of discussion about guys like Josh Cribbs and CJ Spiller, among many others.  The return game would seem to be an area we will definitely see addressed (and hopefully upgraded), so we'll keep an eye on that.

Kicking
FG: 17/21, long 51
XP: 33/33
Net Return Avg: 22.0 yards
Touchback Percentage: 7.9%
Kickoff DVOA: 2.6% (13th)
FG/XP DVOA: 1.9% (13th)

First off, I didn't include the stats of Ricky Schmitt and Shane Andrus because Nedney is clearly the guy going forward.  Joe Nedney's strength is in his consistency in the kicking game.  He's not a guy you want to have to rely on for a 55 yard game winning field goal.  His kickoffs aren't going to inspire anybody, but fortunately the 49ers coverage units are quite solid.  Generally, if you're looking for a steady option, he's the man.  He's getting up their in age, but given the horrors the 49ers experienced at kicker before him, I'll take Steady Joe anytime.  And we know this guy misses him in Nashville.

Punting
Gross Avg: 47.6 yards (2nd)
Net Avg: 42.6 (3rd)
Inside 20: 30 (t-6th)
Fair Catches: 14 (t-20)
Returns: 57 (2nd)
Return Avg: 8.7 yards (14th)
Punting DVOA: 12.8 (3rd)

I don't think a whole lot needs to be said about Pro Bowl punter Andy Lee.  Lee has shown incredibly consistency, averaging over a 47 yard gross the last three seasons.  Teams do get returns in, probably in part because of the strength of his leg.  And yet Lee doesn't usually out-kick his coverage.  While teams aren't often fair-catching, the punt coverage unit is able to get down and make the stop, which was a very important component for the 49ers in 2009.49ers vs Rams boxscore

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PR numbers say it all

I would say it’s anyone’s guess as far as what they will do for a PR. Disappointingly enough, in light of injury, I don’t think they will try Clements again even though his numbers were decent. A veteran like Josh Cribbs would be ideal, but he would need to be traded rather than picked up in FA. So those chances seem remote. The draft has some good possibilities like Jordan Shipley and Javier Arenas. Anyone recall someone who was a notable PR in his rookie season? I feel like if they want a chance at an immediatel turnaround they will have to pick up someone in FA for the experience.

by Mangoman on Jan 11, 2010 10:50 AM PST reply actions  

Rookies

Truly special guys have done well. Recent names include Harvin and Hester. Felix Jones did quite well as a KO return for Dallas last year before getting injured. Back in the day, Kevin Metcalf, Deion Sanders and Dave Meggett. Kevin Williams with Dallas. If the player did it well in college and has lots of experience, coaches will trust them as a rookie. Most of them have excellent speed so if the blocking is decent they will break a few before teams either stop kicking to them or adjust how they cover them.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Jan 11, 2010 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Kevin Metcalf

He goes back quite a few years! Vaguely remember him when he played for the ST. LOUIS Cardinals.

by Mangoman on Jan 11, 2010 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh wait where's my brain

That was Terry Metcalf. Kevin was with the Browns. But they’re related I think.

by Mangoman on Jan 11, 2010 1:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Yep

Dad and son. Kevin is one of the all-time leaders in return yardage, up their with Brian Mitchell.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Jan 11, 2010 3:11 PM PST up reply actions  

So, what are we supposed to discuss?

Usually you end these with some sort of question that opens up discussion…..

What we've got here is a failure to communicate.

by SportsChicken on Jan 11, 2010 10:51 AM PST reply actions  

special teams

I suppose just how awful it was? We’ve hit the punt return issue from most angles at this point. I suppose until a new special teams coach is hired and free agency gets going, there’s not much left to discuss with it.

by David Fucillo on Jan 11, 2010 11:00 AM PST up reply actions  

DVOA

I am certain EVERYBODY out there knows exactly what DVOA represents (that is with the exception of me and three others). I’m sure I could “guess” at it. But I’m a little too old, too tired – and only mildly curious.

Just a thought for future reference. Accompany your esoteric terms with a spelled out version somewhere in your text. It would suggest at least some level of thoughtfulness.

Take care.

by ninernutt on Jan 11, 2010 12:09 PM PST reply actions  

Fooch has explained it before and I'm sure he doesn't like doing it everytime he posts...

…maybe someone here can link a page to you so you can read it.

FOOCH, It would be helpful if maybe there was a spot, or link that we could go to for various football terms, statistics, or lists of FA, etc…Just like a wikipedia page, or dictionary page, etc…

by hudd07 on Jan 11, 2010 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanx, hudd07

Each of your suggestions are duly noted – and deeply appreciated! That DVOA reminds me of a professor I had ’bout a zillion years ago.

by ninernutt on Jan 11, 2010 3:41 PM PST up reply actions  

DVOA

Sorry for the delay in getting back to you. Here’s some info for you:

The best description of DVOA would be at this link at Football Outsiders.

The short, short version is that DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It’s basically setting a baseline for the average NFL player and then telling you whether a player or a whole unit of a team is below, at, or above this often-times mythical average player, unit, etc…

Here’s FOs short explanation of DVOA:

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.

by David Fucillo on Jan 11, 2010 3:55 PM PST up reply actions  

ONE OTHER THING, BY THE WAY

Would appreciate it if someone out there with the 4-1-1 would kindly share thoughts on amount of $$ Niners will have to work with during FA period (what with talk of NO CBA, or
maybe a CBA.) Or who knows what? One each quality OT and OG, both with real nasty attitudes and 4 or 5 years in would be really nice is why I’m asking.

by ninernutt on Jan 11, 2010 3:54 PM PST reply actions  

I think you're in luck

There are about 4 OT’s projected to go in the 1st round this year. With two picks, I don’t see how the Niners would not end up with one of them barring them being high on Alex Boone. There are two OG’s projected to go in the 1st round, one of them being Mike Iupati of Idaho. He’s showing to go right around the 16th or 17th pick, right where the Niners are supposed to pick!

I haven’t heard of anything official regarding it being a capped or uncapped year next season. There’s definitely talk of it being uncapped, which depending on how much money each team has to spend has teams foaming at the mouth I’m sure!

by Mangoman on Jan 11, 2010 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Iupati BTW

Very nasty attitude, at least in terms of his play. If you didn’t see him in the Humanitarian Bowl, let’s just say he knows how to knock some DL’s around.

by Mangoman on Jan 11, 2010 4:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Uncapped year

Isn’t there also something that states in an uncapped year the top 8 teams (based on playoffs) can only sign one FA for every one they lose?

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Jan 11, 2010 4:48 PM PST up reply actions  

The "Final 8" Rule

According to Pat Kirwan of nfl.com:

The rule will restrict the final eight teams in the playoffs from signing free agents. The final four teams shall not be permitted to negotiate and sign any unrestricted free agent to a player contract except for players who acquired their status by being cut or were on the final four team when their contract expired. Playoff teams five thru eight get a break to sign one player with a salary of $4,925,000 or more and any number of players with a first-year salary of no more than $3,275,000 and an annual increase of no more than 30 percent in the following years. There is a mechanism to permit the final eight teams to sign an unrestricted free agent for each one of their own unrestricted free agents who sign with another club as long as they don’t spend more than what their own lost player received from his new club.

by Mangoman on Jan 11, 2010 5:02 PM PST up reply actions  

lol

So if we want this guy we cant sign this guy or have to cut this guy. But we can get this guy if he accepts this but if he wants more we must…..

by dalien82 on Jan 11, 2010 5:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Yup

Makes things even more complicated.

Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.

by smileyman on Jan 11, 2010 9:27 PM PST up reply actions  

IMPRESSIVE, ONE AND ALL - VERY IMPRESSIVE

It is a fun pleasure to tap into so many young minds with such passion and feel for the game – and my Niners. The DVOA spiel was enlightening (I won’t swear that I comprehend ALL of it, but I got the gist and that is good enough). Thanks all for sharing on so many topics and so many levels. (Oh to be young again – Oh, Well.)

But thanks one and all – and my blessings on each and every one of you.

by ninernutt on Jan 11, 2010 6:34 PM PST reply actions  

Love the Nedney video

Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.

by smileyman on Jan 11, 2010 9:30 PM PST reply actions  

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