The New York Jets, the San Francisco 49ers and the NFL Draft
by David Fucillo on Jan 21, 2010 10:30 AM PST
in San Francisco 49ers News
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PrintOne of the first sites I tend to check in the morning, after this one of course, is The Big Lead. I disagree with plenty of their commentary, but they entertain me and they provide enough links throughout the day to keep me amused. Originally I was a Deadspin guy and TBL was sort of on my periphery. However, as I began reading TBL more and more, I enjoyed it more than Deadspin (this also happened to coincide with the departure of Will Leitch).
The point of all that is that I recently came across one of their posts that I thought could be extrapolated over to the 49ers. The main guy at TBL, Jason McIntyre, is a self-professed Jets fan. Given the Jets run of success lately, he's had more than his fair share of posts related to the Jets. Today's Jets-related post was about debunking the myths surrounding Mark Sanchez. The post I wanted to direct you to, however, discusses how the Jets recent success can be due in large part to their success with their first two draft choices over the last four seasons.
2009 Draft:
1st Round: Mark Sanchez, QB
3rd Round: Shonn Greene, RB
2008 Draft:
1st Round: Vernon Gholston, LB
1st Round: Dustin Keller, TE
2007 Draft:
1st Round: Darrelle Revis, CB
2nd Round: David Harris, ILB
2006 Draft:
1st Round: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT
1st Round: Nick Mangold, C
Whatever else you want to credit for the Jets recent success, I'd have to agree with Jason that the Jets success in the draft has to account for a lot. It's fairly obvious that teams need to draft well to develop sustained success. So how have the 49ers done? We've discussed these various players in the abstract, but let's bring them all together after the jump.
2009 Draft:
1st Round: Michael Crabtree, WR
3rd Round: Glen Coffee, RB
2008 Draft:
1st Round: Kentwan Balmer, DE
2nd Round: Chilo Rachal, G
2007 Draft:
1st Round: Patrick Willis, ILB
1st Round: Joe Staley, OT
2006 Draft:
1st Round: Vernon Davis, TE
1st Round: Manny Lawson, OLB
Looking first at the Jets, depending on your feelings about Mark Sanchez, New York has arguably hit on 7 of their 8 picks. Gholston is closing in on big-time bust so that's an easy one to call a miss for now. As for Sanchez, he's certainly been solid for a rookie QB. Maybe he regresses next season, maybe not. But even if you want to say he's not a hit, that's still 6 of 8 that are strong to huge hits.
The 49ers, on the other hand, are a little tougher to call. I'd call Crabtree a hit at this point. Maybe he regresses, but I like what we've seen from the rookie. For the purposes of this season Coffee is a miss. It's too early to throw around wasted pick, but he's not there yet. Balmer isn't a hit, but also isn't a bust yet. He was slowly starting to make some plays late in the season and this coming training camp is a bit of a crossroads for him. As for Rachal, he looked like he'd be a hit his rookie season, then had a bit of a regression this past season. I think he can still turn it back around, but we'll keep him off the hit list for now. Or if he is a hit, it's a very modest one.
2007 appears to be the best top two of the past four seasons. Bamm Bamm is an all world linebacker and Staley is developing into a very solid option at left tackle. He struggled in the transition and had injury issues this season, but he's clearly a talented guy. I'm willing to say it's a hit for now, but obviously not a monster hit. In 2006, Vernon Davis has finally turned that pick into a hit after early struggles. Lawson has had his ups and downs. He finished with the best season of his career even after being benched at one point. He's got some work to do to continue his development, but I think he's going in the right direction.
This may be a bit generous, but I'd say the 49ers have had 5 "hits," with Chilo somewhere on the fence, and Balmer and Coffee being misses for now. I'm sure some might disagree, but even if you agree with my list of hits, some of the 49ers hits are not really in the realm with the Jets hits.
So what does all this mean? Simply put, the two first round picks in the 2010 draft are pretty huge for the long term future of the 49ers. I'm sure there's a collective "Duhhhhhh" racing through the crowd right about now. First round picks are always important, so I suppose I'm repeating the obvious.
However, it's still worth considering when looking at the potential long term success or failure of the Mike Singletary era. Is it possible that this draft is the cross-roads for the 49ers franchise for the rest of the Mike Singletary era, or at least the foreseeable future of said era? You nail these two picks and the team is on the road back to the playoffs and beyond. You miss on the two picks (or even one of them), and the rebuilding process lurches along.
That's a fairly simplistic view, but maybe it's the truth. I suppose the team could find their needs with later picks, or in free agency, but something about this draft just feels more important than usual. Maybe it's just the fact that the 49ers have a pair of picks with which to work. Whatever the case, the 49ers need to take care of business with those two picks.
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Nice article
Hopefully, if we do decide to make moves through free agency we do not go after the injury prone Marvel Smith bargain type. I would think almost all, if not all, would agree that the OL is the biggest problem.
If Alex Smith, or any other qb, is not running for their life they can be successful.
LETS GET ALEX A LINE!!
I genuinely had forgotten we ever signed Marvel Smith ...
… such was his impact!
"This could be another Very Special Team" ... Superbowl winning Niners lineman Dan Audick ...
by LondonNiner on Jan 21, 2010 11:29 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Gholston
He was a workout warrior in the combine and I think the Jets were tricked into drafting him by the Pats who were supposedly heavily scouting Gholston (before they draft DROY Mayo with our pick of course).
Simply put, these 2 1st round picks have to be players who can contribute immediately next season. One of them has to be an O-lineman for sure as we all know that was a big part of the problem on offense in 2009. As for the other pick, I would like to see either a DB or a DE.
Hopefully, the “rebuilding” era is over and about to pay off in this new decade.
Win the inning.
I’d like to see them pickup Logan Mankins from the Patriots. Assuming he doesn’t stay with the team, and the 49ers are willing to pay him some money. Then possibly draft a Tackle and defensive end.
He's restricted
And I’d guess we’d have to give up 2 picks for him… No thank you sir.
Are we willing to spend a first round pick on a stud guard?
If so, why not do it for a guard that has proven his worth?
Of course that’s assuming Mankins wants to leave NE which he doesn’t.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Wow the Jets have really drafted well the past couple years. I would say that only Willis and Staley are anywhere near the hits the Jets have had. Revis is looking like the best corner in the league and Willis is as well at linebacker. Greene has started to break out, Keller is a fairly good TE and their line has been a major part of their success.
I want me some Buster
he dropped enough balls
that he could have had probably 2 more TD’s and another 100 yards or more.
"Vernon is going to be a great tight end one day, but he's got to put the whole package together." - Thanks Sing for echoing this.
And thats all of Maginis picks to lol
49ers Al Grito De Guerra!!! hahaha
by 49erSalvatrucha on Jan 21, 2010 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
Wow they actually got the O-Line first
Funny how that works out.
Tribute to #44...............The Elmira Express!!
They have a very solid line
A cohesive unit that has stayed together for a while, and they are credited with a big contribution to the team’s success this year.
I think the 49ers have done a decent job at drafting players… but the development through the Nolan years was a little poor. I think they got lucky with Willis, and Crabtree to kind of fall in their laps. The thing is, if you include this year, we’ll have had 8 out of 10 picks (from the first 2 picks) that were 1st round guys, and I don’t think any of those guys can be called a “bust”, but only Willis and finally Vernon Davis have come to meet, and kind of exceed expectations. I think Staley is close, and Crabtree has potential. The rest I can see being really good backups, or serviceable starters. I like Lawson, he just seems to be out of place sometimes.
I seem to remember
that the Niners wanted Willis the whole time, and that a bunch of mainstream mock drafts had him coming here. In retrospect, yeah, a few other teams probably wish they had grabbed him, but I don’t think it was considered a windfall for the Niners.
I thought I heard that Nolan wanted someone else, and Scot McCloughan kept insisting on Willis. He didn’t really fall to us, I guess.
I just remember
it coming down to Willis and Carriker pretty much. I think the Rams took Carriker right before us? Not that we would have taken him over PW but I am sooooooooooooooo glad that didn’t happen.
Nice Break down!
But I would say we had 4 hits, 1 lucked out and 3 misses.
hits- Willis, Staley, Davis and I’m pushing Rachal over the fence he has potential and most OL need time to develop
misses- Coffee, Balmer, Lawson
lucked out- Crabtree, unlike the rest he was not in their plans to draft, but we’ve seen the Jets go up and down the board to get the guy they wanted (like Joe Staley). Truly the difference lies with the people upstairs making decisions. I’m interested to see who the 2 #1 picks will be or how they will use these picks to pick up quality players.
Joe and Steve were under the same system for years... don't expect Smith to be super so soon.
I'd swap Lawson and Rachal.
I don’t see how you can call Manny Lawson a “miss”. He’s a solid starter in our 3-4, and we’d have a hell of a time finding an upgrade for him. Even if you consider his first round contract, he still gives us a great return investment.
Chilo Rachal, on the other hand…
I’d love to believe that he’s simply a young player who has yet to realize his potential. I really would. As badly and as often as he was beat in pass protection last season, though, I just can’t allow myself to think of him as anything but a poor man’s Kwame Harris. He’s great in the run game, sure – but holy f’ing Christ is he awful against the rush.
"It came down like a punt, Coach!" - Josh Morgan
Not just the first 2 picks.
We could have had Shon Green in round 2 last year. I was hoping they were going to pick him when they traded it away. We’ll see how that turns out. But I didn’t think picking Coffee at 3 made any sense. We had a lot of other needs and Coffee was by no means the BPA at 3. So that was a waste.
Obviously, the two first picks are very important, but I guess my point is, so are the other picks through at least round 5. And I think - especailly looking at how much better most of the teams still playing seem to be vs the 49ers at this point -- and the Chargers — we need to go BPA for the first few rounds and get our OL solved in FA. They will be there. Basically we need a RT. Sure a guard would be nice too, be we shouldn’t be reaching for one in the draft. FA we get a known quantity and barring injuries we should be able to resolve that OL problem before the draft.
I also don’t think Alex Smith and a better line equals an offense that can compete with what we are seeing in the playoffs. Eventually we’ll need a QB with that special something Alex has never had. I know a lot of you will disagree, but I’m looking at the QBs in the playoffs — even the one’s whose teams have lost, and this is what I see — Sanchez and the number one defense in football, then Warner, Brees, Manning, Farve, Rivers! Yikes!
Can a great D with a decent QB win the Super Bowl? Yes, it happens from time to time. But I think we need to find a fierce leader, a great QB who makes plays at the end of the game to win, or hold the lead. I don’t see Alex being that guy? Can Nate Davis be that guy? Well, we should entertain the idea. But at this point he’s like a blind date. There’s always hope! But idiotically we haven’t let him touch the ball yet even when we had the chance.
So for what it’s worth, my hopes in the first round would be Berry if he’s there, Spliller, who probably will be there, and if Berry isn’t there, trade down. There are a number of good OL we can take later in round one.
But we have to do the right thing and solve the problem at OL by throwing big money at the best one or two FAs. If we’re going to spend big bucks let’s spend it on the OLine.
There are no CBs worth taking in round one this year in my opinion. And no QBs in any round for us. We need to let Nate Davis play out before we take a stab at someone else in a later round.
Let’s not waste ANY picks! It’s not just round 1 that can make or break a team for years to come. We need a monster draft. We also need to get serious in FA. It’s a combination of FA and all of our draft picks that will tell the story of 2010. Not just the first 2 picks.
Problem with free agent linemen, is that they are often times used up by the time they become free agents. (See our run at recently signed veteran tackles and guards, Jonas Jennings, Marvel Smith, etc.)
There are a couple guys who are mediocre that will be available, but aren’t much better than what we have. Signing those guys creates depth at those spots, which is needed just as bad as a full time starter. I mentioned Logan Mankins, who might be available, and is a stud at guard. Not sure if he’s gonna be available. There’s a lot of depth this year, I think, at the tackle and guard spots, but not too much in the way of a “stud”, first round guy, so we can possibly get a guy in the 2-4 rounds, but hey, we need lots of help there, so a couple picks should be used on the line, as well as a free agent guy. It all just kinda depends on who’s available, and if you want to sign a backup, and draft a starter, or sign a starter and draft a backup… either way, they’ll have options… and of course, signing a guy depends on if they want to come here. Mankins is from California, I’m assuming, he went to Fresno State with me, and Pat Hill usually gets kids from California… so maybe he’ll want to come back home to the area.
I’m with you on taking the BPA… unless you’ve already got a stud, like Patrick Willis, and the best guy is a middle linebacker. In that case, trade down, and get some value for your pick. Isn’t that what Walsh use to do, and Jimmy Johnson with the Cowboys?
"a bit generous"
I’d say you were generous indeed.
The 49ers have had 4 hits out of those 8. Considering 6 of those 8 were 1st round selections, that’s pretty much a failing grade.
I’d say this draft is the most significant in recent franchise history. One more bad draft and this remains a mediocre team going forward.
Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....
by youALREADYknow on Jan 21, 2010 11:58 AM PST reply actions
What about the later rounds?
Gore, Goldson, Walker, Haralson, and Morgan were all taken in round 3 or later.
To me, that defines a team better then just their first round picks. How many team can scout the late round gems? 9ers seem to be doing pretty well in that regard.
by return2greatness on Jan 21, 2010 12:23 PM PST reply actions
Hitting on 1st round picks is more important.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Jan 21, 2010 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
1st rounders are typically closer to being starters.
Tribute to #44...............The Elmira Express!!
JESUS {SITE DECORUM} CHRIST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fooch, you fell for Jets fan self serving crap. Yes, the Jets have drafted some nice players the last few seasons but don’t forget this list.
Key Free Agents & Acquisitions:
Alan Faneca
Thomas Jones
Tony Richardson
Braylon Edwards
Damien Woody
Bart Scott
Lito Sheppard
Jim Leonhard
Calvin Pace
Marques Douglas
Kris Jenkins (Starter on IR)
Jay Feely
Steve Weatherford
That’s right . . . 1, 2, 3 . . . 13 STARTERS VIA FREE AGENCY. Leave it to a Jets fan to applaud themselves as drafting geniuses during a brief stint of success. Ya, it’s the same expensive, veteran free agent team that got Mangini fired last season. Save me the genius organization act, a few schedule breaks was a difference between last year’s failed team and made it with skid marks on their {site decorum} playoff team this season.
Want to know the difference? The NFC is now deeper than the AFC and Mc Boo Foo doesn’t understand you need to add a few players via free agency . . . you’d build through the draft for infinity.
Larry Allen
was one FA O-Lineman that was great for us. The only knock on him was that he was a Cowgirl first. I never understood the Kentwan Balmer pick. He’s a project. He didn’t even believe he was picked that early. You usually grab a player of his caliber in round 4-5 not round one…What a waste.
I agree we should address the O-Line needs in FA, and draft some of these young studs available in rd. one. Berry, Spiller, Taylor Mays,Dez Bryant, Carlos Dunbar, Brandon Spikes, etc… There’s way too much talent to pass up on.
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