Football Outsiders Stat of the Day: Blame the play-calling or the checkdown?

Smith missing high and potentially getting his WRs killed in the middle of the field.
Smith missing recievers that were clearly open.
Smith throwing open recievers balls the ended up just out of bounds.
Smith missing wide open recievers at the very same second that he threw to recievers three feet beyond the line of scimmage with two LBs honing in on his receiver.
Smith looking straight at the guy he wants to throw to until the safety catches up to the play.
Crabtree and Davis and Morgan waving their hands wide open while Smith is looking for an outlet reciever.

The guy needs an Oline. OK! He does!
But so did a lot of other QBs this year: Brady, Rivers, Warner, Hassleback, Vince Young, Cutler, and many others.
WHY was Smith the worst of all the QBs who need a better Oline?

Guys with accuracy problems, and who can’t see plays developing, and who look down their receivers before throwing the ball, then throwing the ball too high, or behind the WR, don’t tend to get that much better with a better Oline, or with time. Just like great QBs like Brady and Rivers don’t completely fall apart when their Oline is weak in a given year. They may not be as good as they were, but they are still good. Still accurate. Still know to throw across the first down marker on third downs! Still don’t look at the reciever they are about to throw to. Still complete long passes a few times a game that changes the game on the spot, still know how to take command of a game a lot of the time, still are leaders, still battle and still find ways to win some games their team is about to lose.

Alex Smith, God love him, is a REALLY nice kid, but there are not things I see changing in the fiuture. THAT’S WHY I want the Niners to give Nate Davis a chance. Look at films of the kid. He has the potential to be great. We can debate the odds of that. potential being realized in the NFL. I don’t know the answer to that. Why? Because the team never let him take a snap even when we were out of the playoffs and playing bad teams.

They never prepared Davis to play in a live game even after they realized Shaun Hill was not our answer. They relied on Smith to be our savior even though there was no statistical or historical reason to do so. THAT is STUPID coaching. That is being naive to the truth. We will probably have to pay for that stupidity in 2010.

Alex is never going to be top notch quarterback. At best he can become serviceable. A great quarterback needs the 3 A’s: Athleticism, Acumen, and ACCURACY with the last one being the most important. Who are the accurate quaterbacks? Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, etc. These guys can throw perfect passers to covered guys and hit them chest high in the hands. Alex can usually get within 5 feet of a moving target or he will do his oh so tiresome “run right and throw it away.” If we can pick up QB that is raw but accurate, I say get him. Is Nate accurate?

Man, Tim, where have you been during the last 1000 posts? I’ve been fighting these guys tooth and nail with no other believers until now. I have been making two points:"

1. Alex is a really good guy but will never be a great QB in the NFL because he just doesn’t have the intangibles that great QBs have. And I don’t think they can be learned. I don’t think accuracy and instinct and being able to throw bombs that glide into his WRs stomach on the dead run can be learned.

2. I was begging for Nate to play at least a quarter in the last two games against the Rams and Lions to get him on tape and let both him and the organization get a feel for what his potential was. I was derided for that. Apparently that was an insane idea because he didn’t know tha playbook! My point was, so what, if the staff wanted to play him they could have given him 10 plays a game plus a half dozen plays where he hands the ball off to see what we might have on oiur hands. I have met stiff opposition to that even though Walsh slipped Young into games for a quarter for at least a few games a year even in years when they were fighting for a playoff spot, he slipped Montana into games at the end of the season when Deberg was QB and they were out of the playoffs. Walsh always wanted to get a feel for all of his players.

3. In that regard, why did they not let our other young players get more expereince in those last two games as well? Brown, McKillop, Alex Boone, and others. Not necessarily at the same time. But just plug them in on certain plays, certain downs, to let them learn and get more information about them on tape to use in the offseason. Why they were simply hell-bent for two meaningless wins at any cost against two crappy teams is no mystery: Sing and Co. saving their own assess by waving the 8-8 flag is the reason. There was no true foresight, no leadership, no vision. Thye said, yeah, these wins will carry momentum into next season. What BS. That’s ridiculous. If everyone knew Sing was working out young players and seeing if the Niners had players that could get us better next year, the players would have understood and applauded their coach for caring about 2010. That’s what a true leader would have done. Instead, he tried to show the NFL how Alex Smith could eat up the two worst defenses in football and came away with egg on his face. Then after the game it’s the same crap, “Alex did some good things out there today.” Yeah, luckily he didn’t get his WRs killed with more high passes and horrible timing. Luckily the balls were so inaccurate our guys had no chance to get themselves killed.

Tim, this is what most of these guys who post all the time disagree with! Amazing. Anyway, welcome to the posts!

Seems as if most folks think Nate is a better QB than Alex. Would be nice to see him start a few games next season. Thought you all might want to reread his scouting report:

Ball State QB Nate Davis Scouting Report
Height: 6-2, Weight: 217

Strengths: Tremendous arm strength…throws an excellent hard ball…athletically gifted and can move very well in the pocket…has some scrambling ability…has the skills to extend the play…throws from a variety of angles…as his career at Ball State progressed, as did his leadership abilities…just now scratching the surface of his professional potential…has an accurate deep ball and may stretch a defense more than any other QB prospect in this draft class…tons of upside here to like…

Weaknesses: Needs to continue to develop his accuracy, and throw the ball into tighter windows or he will not find success at the next level…playing at Ball State, the level of competition was not very good, so his production should be criticized somewhat…needs to develop more touch on his longer passes, can not gun the football on every toss…also needs to develop a better feel for the game and to get rid of the football on time on precision routes…do not expect a starting NFL QB in 2009…

Overall: The more film you watch on some prospects, the more scouts tend to sour on a prospect, Nate Davis is one of the unique prospects that are an exception to the rule. Nate Davis is going to take time to develop, but a development escalation the likes of 2008 rookie QB Joe Flacco is not out of the realm of possibility. Nate Davis is a strong armed, mentally tough prospect, who brings excellent intangibles to the table, yet a prospect who must develop an NFL level accuracy and is going to take time for refinement. Scouts opinions vary on Davis as much as any other prospect in the 2009 draft class, his name could be called anywhere from the latter portion of the 2nd round until the latter portion of the 3rd round.

Alex Smith may understand the playbook and be serviceable but he lacks the three imperative components:
1. Fire
2. Leadership
3. Improvisation

You cant be great unless you have these three, look at all the greats especially Steve Young and Montana, they excelled in those areas. So does Manning, Farve, Brees, Brady heck even Sanchez appears to have this.

Everyone talks about Nate Davis but we really dont know how he passes the intangible test.