Official NN FanPost: One More Season for Mr. Smith?
by SOULxREBEL on Jan 3, 2010 10:12 PM PST
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PrintFooch's Note: Whether you agree with the comments or not, this is a solid FanPost. Now that the season is over, I think it's useful to have one FanPost for discussing Alex Smith at this point. I'll have posts on Smith as we start reviewing the 2009 season, but for now I thought I'd label this as the official FanPost for Alex Smith discussion (I added the "Official" label to the title. Feel free to rec this to keep it up top. If you create a new Alex Smith FanPost that doesn't include an incredible amount of detail and is a new take on the subject (highly unlikely at this point), I'll delete your FanPost and email you the contents for you to post it in this thread. Any questions, email me at ninersnation@gmail.com.
While the 2010 draft class is deep with QB's, next years crop looks to be just as plentiful. The Question here is, do the 49ers use a draft pick this year to try to find a QB to compete with Alex Smith, or do they give the man a full training camp and season as the starter, with out the hang-ups of the next guy peeking over his shoulder?
VS. 
Not to say competition at any position is a bad thing, but my vote would be to not draft a QB. Alex Smith has played well enough to earn a chance to come back and improve on the foundation he has built. Going into the start of next years training camp he will be 26 years old and will have 4 NFL campaigns, and about 2.5 seasons worth of games under his hat. Also, for the first time in his career, he will have the same Offensive Coordinator returning.
Next years draft class, 2011, is just as rich with QB's as this year, so why not be patient and let Alex Smith grow one more season and develop into the player the 49ers thought they were getting when they used the #1 pick back in 2005?
This reminds me of Drew Brees' final seasons in San Diego. He was not very good his first few years with the Chargers, they drafted Philip Rivers, and then boom, that next season Drew Brees starts his metamorphosis into one of the NFL's top QB's. Before the Chargers realized what they had, the team had already commited to Philip Rivers (and I am not saying that is a bad thing), so they just let Drew Brees walk into free agency and then watch as he became a star QB on another team, after they had struggled with him through his growing pains.
Shaun Hill is a solid #2 QB, and Nate Davis is an interesting, but not yet ready, #3 QB. That leaves the 49ers with an adequate back up plan for next season and a developing player for the future, in the case of an Alex Smith injury or a terrible start. My question is, would it be wise to use their abundance of picks to fill the other problems with the roster (O/D line, DB, KR & PR) and address the QB season after another year of examination, or draft a QB now and see what the competition shakes out?
What does the Niner Nation think?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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I voted wrong on my own poll
Beautiful.
" Half the lies they tell about me aren't true. " - Yogi Berra
What QB would be better by 2011?
The Niners are ready to compete in 2010/11, so what QB do we really think is ready to help the team by then?
I’d say only Clausen and Bradford, so unless Bradford is available at pick #13 let’s stick with Alex Smith and put some weapons around him to make him better.
Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....
My point was...
why not see what Alex Smith has to offer the team in terms of skill-improvement and leadership, and then make a decision after the 2010 season, when the QB class will be just as deep as it is this year.
" Half the lies they tell about me aren't true. " - Yogi Berra
Who knows?
I would like to see Davis come into next camp as the presumptive #2. And then he can either blow us away, or continue his development on the practice field, ready to compete for the starting job in his third season.
We wont' really know what Davis brings to the table until we play him.
I had hoped he would have gotten a shot at a series or two in the last game but the O played so bad in the first half it would have been a mistake to play him with the game and 8-8 on the line.
Assuming he is successful in competing in camp he should be able to make a case for himself next pre-season. I think it would be a mistake to use another draft pick for a QB with so many other key positions need to be upgraded.
He could, so it would be a waste of a draft pick to draft another late round QB. If the 49ers draft a QB it would have to be in the 1st or 2nd round.
" Half the lies they tell about me aren't true. " - Yogi Berra
Well… i just don’t see why the niners would draft YET ANOTHER QB, when we should just see what they have with Davis and Smith… Smith’s playing next year, and i just think the niners should have Davis as the #2
Smith may actually be better next year if we keep Raye as the OC.
If Raye can stick around for next year it would the first time we have the same OC two years in a row in quite some time. That in and of itself should help out Smith and the offense as a whole. The other think to keep in mind is the run vs pass offensive style that got changed around this year. With better OL players and consistency at OC we should be able to field a team that is capable of a more balanced attack rather chose run vs pass. That controversy was just ridiculous.
Also, going into next year with Smith as the starter, Raye will be able to design plays for both him and Gore.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
It's hard to get excited about Raye as an OC, though.
But yes, a whole offseason to plan and implement one offense should help.
Alex SMith should be gone
he is terrible. Our O-line is no great shakes, but I am tired of seeing him throw behind or 3 feet out of the reach of receivers. I want Arnaz battle and O coord Jimmy Raye gone too. All of them are well worse than average.
So you want to shake things up again. The 49ers will never go anywhere without some consistancy on offense.
" Half the lies they tell about me aren't true. " - Yogi Berra
I am all for consistency, but Smith and Raye are not skilled enough to merit it.
I am trying to focus on their ability and not insult the men, but they are not productive at all and they waste the potential of our skill position players.
i agree
raye and smith are perpetual underachievers. it kills me to have talent like crab, morgan, brandon, etc and no leading talent at qb to get the ball to them. i hate watching smith on the field. the dude just isn’t a winner.
"There is no pressure. Pressure only exists when you're not prepared."
-The Samurai
Alex Smith is garbage...
by redrum21225 on Jan 23, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
Amen Mayfield.
It’s a damn shame to waste a very good D on a very bad O. We have to fix the O or the D won’t be able to make a serious impact on the Ws.
Jesus, you guys just don't get it.
With a very inconsistant line, no special teams (other than punting), a worthless running game for half the season, Alex Smith is lucky he’s not dead. The guy went 18 TDs and 12 INTs this year and didn’t even play in the first 5 and a half games. Half of his picks bounced off of a recivers hand and at times, he was running for his life. All this after 2 years of shoulder injuries. SKILL? He doesn’t have the skill to be QB? Really? He had a ton of skills, just no consistancy of an offense. Look at Aaron Rodgers, he sat for 3 years learning 1 system behind Favre and was put into a great sistuation with a good O-line. He gets sacked alot cause he holds onto the ball too long tring to make a big play. In the Rams game, Alex recongized coverage, looked off the safety, then threw a beautiful, perfect pass to Vernon Davis for a 73 yard TD. That is the Smith of the future. Just let him develope and he will be a great QB.
by ericalancanty on Jan 7, 2010 3:12 PM PST up reply actions
Lets get real...
A lot of the stuff that bounced off of receivers were short routes thrown too hot, high throws, or throws to the wrong shoulder. The receiver was able to get a hand up and make contact with the ball, but that was about it. Even Randy Moss would have dropped a lot of those. For his one good throw to Davis, he had at least 3 that could have gone for good distance, or even points, that he didn’t throw to the right spot. Hopefully, if the supporting cast gets stronger, Smith will look better, but it’s nothing I’d be very happy to put money on at this point.
And that, my friend
is where consistency and familiarity with your receivers comes in. Smith wasn’t able to practice with Crabtree in training camp and even though he got all the first team reps once he became the starter, there is something to be said for the amount of chemistry that builds throughout an entire off-season. I think next season is when Smith finally takes a big leap forward. If not, then bring on Davis but it would be foolish to think that drafting Sam Bradford would bring about a better situation
by return2greatness on Jan 9, 2010 1:34 PM PST up reply actions
I've never endorsed drafting Bradford...
The Eagles appear to not be interested in renewing McNabb’s contract. It’s got a year to run, but maybe they could be persuaded to make a move once Philly gets ousted from the playoffs? It would depend on what has to be given up, of course. McNabb isn’t perfect, but he’s wayyy better than what we’ve currently got, and he’s probably got 3-4 serviceable years left.
I can't see how throwing high and too hard is in the realm of consistency issues
Smith needs to work on his accuracy, he is not an accurate QB.
Tribute to #44........The Elmira Express
Beat me to it.
I also think that Smith should have become less likely to stink out the joint as the season went along, if it was a matter of unfamiliarity with his receivers, and we didn’t see that.
There was an interesting comment from Smith ...
… about how not changing OCs this year would give him a chance to spend the offseason working on his mechanics, which SHOULD improve his accuracy.
I would also say that a QB like Smith, who has accuracy problems when his mechanics break down, and has his mechanics break down when he gets rattled, should get more accurate the more comfortable he is, and more time with his receivers can only help.
The question is, how much can it help – and that question is hard to answer. It’s going to be interesting to see.
ha
i still wish we would’ve taken rogers. he has way more potential
"There is no pressure. Pressure only exists when you're not prepared."
-The Samurai
Alex Smith is garbage...
by redrum21225 on Jan 23, 2010 10:37 AM PST up reply actions
I've always been a Smith supporter
One more season. A full season as the presumed starter from the start. He has his playmakers (Gore, Morgan, Davis, Crabtree), he has coaching continuity, he has a year removed from injury and confidence in his ability again, and he will hopefully get a better Oline through free agency and the draft. Let’s see what happens next year, if he is still not getting the job done, draft Jake Locker. Seems pretty simple to me.
"We want WINNERS!" - Coach Singletary
Sigh
Not drafting a QB in the first round (assuming one you like is available) is ridiculous. Smith’s play this season was unnacceptable (his DVOA was worse than Bruce Gradkowski for crying out loud). You draft a QB not with the idea of replacing Smith next year but in 2011-2012. Smith will still get a full year as a starter, but you have a player developing behind him so that you can (hopefully) finally find an answer at QB.
Alex Smith has played well enough to earn a chance to come back and improve on the foundation he has built.
Huh? How is his poor play “playing well enough to earn a chance to come back”? That he could play decently against awful pass defenses like Jax and Seattle and then get torn apart by decent defenses like Arizona and Philly? That’s not good enough to me.
“Going into the start of next years training camp he will be 26 years old and will have 4 NFL campaigns, and about 2.5 seasons worth of games under his hat. Also, for the first time in his career, he will have the same Offensive Coordinator returning.”
He’s had 5 seasons not 4, and he has yet to reach an acceptable level of play. I’d probably let him start next year because there’s no better player currently on the roster but to not even begin looking for another player at the position is crazy if you ask me. Remember, usually a rookie QB needs a season or two to e ready to play. If you even want to have a hope of having a good quartrback by 2012 (other than praying Nate Davis works out) you need to start looking for a QB now. And yes, using a first round pick if you think you’ve found the guy is completely appropriate.
Next year’s draft class, 2011, is just as rich as this year’s
Yes, and what if the Niners aren’t in a position to take a QB they like next year? I’m sorry, but passing on a guy you think can be a franchise player at far and away the most important position in football because you think you might be in a spot to draft a guy you like next year is the height of stupidity. If the Niners pass ona guy they grade as a potential franchise signal caller because they want to wait another year (despite the fact they will still start Smith even if they draft a QB) it’d be the franchise’s biggest mistake since they took Smith #1 overall.
So why not be patient and let Smith grow and develop into the player the Niners thought they were getting when they took Smith #1 overall?
They’ve already waited 5 seasons and Smith has yet to show he can even approach average production for a QB. Either way (whether they draft a QB or not) Smith will get another shot next year, so why wait yet another year to make a serious attempt to address the franchise’s biggest problem? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting to get different results. Smith is not good at football (relatively speaking), hoping that someday he may become a decent, average player is not enough to put off addressing the problem.
re; addressing needs
The D-line is absolutely terrific so I don’t know why you think that’s a need. There is no need to evaluate Smith for another year, while there is a fairly small chance to develop into a decent player he clearly will never be a franchise quarterback. Passing on a potential franchise player in the draft because you might have a decent player would be utterly foolish.
Look, I’m not saying to draft a QB no matter what. If there’s no QB the Niners like at their pick, take somebody else. But if the front office truly would make sweeping judgements to avoid drafting a QB (as many have here at NN) and let a guy they rate as having “franchise QB potential” go by to give Alex Smith another season without any serious competition I’m not even really exaggerating when i say I think that should be a fireable offense.
by Brendan Scolari on Jan 3, 2010 7:54 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Sigh
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
by Drew Kerr on Jan 3, 2010 8:08 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Not drafting a QB in the first round (assuming one you like is available) is ridiculous.
So is this comment. Our most glaring issues have easily been identifiable as our Oline and secondary. Experts, ex-nfl players, coaches, etc have said this over and over all season long. QB is probably a third tier need, if any at all.
Yes, and what if the Niners aren’t in a position to take a QB they like next year?
If that’s the case, then that probably means we went to the playoffs which in turn probably means we don’t need a QB.
They’ve already waited 5 seasons and Smith has yet to show he can even approach average production for a QB.
And out of those five, how much talent has he been surrounded by? He finally had some talent surrounding him this year, and has had a 30% increase on all his averages. This has been by far his most accurate season. A few more players to surround him and he will be fine.
And finally, what a waste? Really? A 1st round pick on a QB? Who? Jimmy Clausen? No thanks. Sam Bradford (Mr. Bionic Shoulder)? Nope. McCoy? Tebow? Spread-spread. Tell me who is going to be better than Alex Smith? Not one of those guys. Not to mention most of the “decent” candidates will be scooped up before our picks at 13 or 16.
That was probably the longest rebutal to a FanPost that doesn’t really serve a purpose that I have ever read.
And the “Sigh” response was a mocking of how you started your post off in case you missed that ;)
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
by Drew Kerr on Jan 3, 2010 8:26 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
If you can even say with a straight fae you don't think QB is a need
Then there’s no reason to discuss this further.
by Brendan Scolari on Jan 3, 2010 8:30 PM PST up reply actions
That's an excellent argument
If you aren’t stark, raving mad about the QB than your opinion doesn’t matter in the 1st place.
Handing the ball off is our future dammit! An offense that can function despite the QB is our future dammit!
I guess my biggest issue with Brendan’s argument is he completely ignores the available options. The QB’s coming out are just as questionable, if not more questionable than Alex Smith in 2005.
Picking a bust at QB has it’s consequences, like the ones he described above. I’d rather use the picks at other positions where this draft is setup to provide several great players.
A QB is a need but his stance indicates we need to ignore all the other needs until the QB filled. Lets a get a QB when an actual QB is available. Alex Smith the sequel is not appealing to me. Having a competent football team just missing a QB is an upbeat proposition, use the draft to get that far.
Yeah, but...
We gotta remember who has been drafting here. I find it hard to believe that despite the few home runs (Willis, Gore, VD, Crabs) there are still a ton of holes that need to be filled. Combine that with no real clue of what kind of offense they want (unless it involves Gore, to tweak a Singletary quote), than again, you are drafting with no real contingency plan.
Well, we're waiting....
Stop saying stuff I agree with
It’s disconcerting.
Combine that with no real clue of what kind of offense they want
I think this is the real issue. We have no offensive identity as a team. Are we trying to be a power-run team? Are we going to be a wide-open aerial attack team? West Coast? Spread? Until you know that you can’t pick the right assistant coaches, you can’t get the right free agents and you can’t pick up the right people in the draft.
That’s one of the reasons the Patriots are so succesful with later round draft picks. They have a clear offensive identity and they pick players who might not be the biggest or fastest or best at their position but will fit well within their scheme. This lets them get high value out of them whilst avoid big busts.
They also have excellent assistant coaches.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
I think the idea..
Of “Singeltary Football” is a darn good one, and that should be #1 on the list as far as the contingency plan. Of course, they could have stuck with that in Oher, but Crabs was too good to pass up, but it made things more confusing. Bring in a dynamic passing attack with a power game, have your badass defense dominate and create TO’s, keep trying to find backs to spell Gore, etc. But just don’t try to create an ideal situation for Smith. That shouldn’t be a priority anymore.
If Singletary is gonna be your Head Coach, then you build to be the Steelers. If Gruden was your Head Coach, then you build to be…
The Raiders?
Well, we're waiting....
I think Singletary agrees with this
Also based on a few of his comments during the last few press conferences I don’t think he is going to sit back and let the GM pick the players this off season.
I think he’s going to be marching around Santa Clara headquarters screaming that in order to play “Singletary football” the team has to actually get him Singletary football players.
He might lead a coup on the GM if he tries to stick him with an old, broken RT and two receives, one of which the coaching staff went public saying they did not want.
I think Singletary kind of sat back a bit this last offseason
and wasn’t real agressive with Scott M. I think he feels more secure in his job right now and won’t have a problem pushing back if he thinks Scotty wants something that’s going to be different than what he wants.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Since when has Alex Smith ever been in an ideal situation with this team? When Arnaz Battle was the #1 WR? When they where changing the Offensive Coaching staff every year? While he was injured for the equivalent of 2.5 years? When the O-Line couldn’t block high schoolers? When Frank Gore had to be the leading reciever except this season because all others where completely incompetent?
Now that the team actually has playmakers and could possible sore up that God-forsaken offensive line during the offseason people want to see Smith gone?
by Hoopers Judge on Jan 3, 2010 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
The point is..
You build a situation for the QB’s to try to excel in, and right now, there are still no clear cut options other than Smith who looks more like the 49ers should explore other options. The whole “Smith never had” should not apply anymore. The 49ers since Young, or maybe even Garcia, haven’t had good QB play in years. I think that’s the “never had” that needs to be addressed.
Well, we're waiting....
Not really
It’s virtually impossible to succeed at that (the QB) position unless you have some weapons at your disposal and a line compitent enough to give you reasonable time to throw it.
In 2002 Jeff Garcia had guys like T.O., Garrison Hearst, Tai Streets, J.J. Stokes, Eric Johnson to throw to and a pretty decent to good Oline, while Alex his first year(2005), had guys like Brandon Lloyd, Johnny Morton, and Kevan Barlow with Kwame Harris as RT and Adam Snyder as LT protecting your blind side….Tell me, how is anyone suppose to accel with that? He’s finally realizing this season that he doesn’t have to run for his life every single down and is settling in to it. I dont care if Tom Brady or whoever was back there their rookie year, they would have gotten murdered in the same way and probably stunk it up close to if not just as bad up until this point most likely.
Now that Smith finally has a few guys to work with; he’s doing alot better. Add one more prolific WR and a RT…maybe a LG and we will he will be in business. But there needs to be a balanced attack, not this “power run” or “shotgun-spread” stuff. I dont mind shotgun and I dont mind the I-formation, but you cannot run only in the “I” and pass only in the “shotgun-spread”. The predictability by Jimmy Raye this year was extremely apparent in nearly every game. That has to change next year, or it’s gonna be slippery banana peals once again. The gameplans definitely need to be less transparent.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
I think the offense is predicated..
On Smith, and where and when he is most effective. In other words, they had to limit and tweak things to make it more palatable for his strengths. Guess what? Smith is still a very limited QB, and that makes a very limited offense when it runs through your QB.
I mean Jeebus, if he couldn’t throw that seam route, I dunno what else he can throw.
He is doing better on screens though.
Well, we're waiting....
How is he limited?
He’s been throwing 20 yard out routes. He’s hit Crabtree on a few 30-40 yarders. Crabtree dropped a beauty of a pass against GB in the endzone. He’s hit Davis on more than just seeam routes. He’s getting better at the comeback routes. He’s showed that he can complete passes in the face of adversity…See Titans game rolling out, see Lions game rolling out. With another year of timing and getting to know his receivers better, I think he will do a lot better next year as well. I think Smith has shown alot. Too many people expect him to be perfect on nearly every single play when he is working with Adam Snyder at RT, Chilo (a rookie) at RG, and a less than stellar LG in Baas. Now Chilo has come on of late and Baas has even shown that he can be effective in the run game, but when it comes to pass blocking, this team is not well equipt. I think the offense is not predicated to Smith’s stregths and or weaknesses but more due to the lack of time he gets under center in a passing situation and alot of people have mistaken that for “we are catoring to Smith’s short-comings”. He has made some spectacular throws and plays also when he’s been in trouble in the pocket and had to roll out.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
He is limited to the fact..
That you can’t run a conventional offense with him. He is limited due to fundamental issues. Rolling out was something Turner had to put in to make him effective. But that takes away half of the field. The offense is more of an “All Go” with a few trips left or right put in. It’s almost the Run and Shoot. He doesn’t even trust himself throwing to a spot. He adjusted one pass to Crabs in DET because he didn’t trust where he would spot it. No matter what offense, if you throw to the spot, you throw to the spot. He is too busy thinking of where he wants to throw it, rather than just throwing it. That why he rarely hits the receivers in stride.
He is your Golf analogy: Smith is Sergio Garcia, a guy who thinks to much and loses the feel of his game, and misses 4 foot putts because of it.
Well, we're waiting....
Maybe Garcias caddy makes him nervous
figuratively the caddy would be Sing of course. Over thinking can be as simply fixed as saying something like, “go out there and feel the field, play your game son”.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
Garcia is the most..
frustrating Golfer I watch. He has the talent to compete and win Majors. He has the tools and the swing. But his head? Jeebus. It’s all about the freakin’ putts. He sucks ass there, and when he misses $$ putts, he starts to miss greens. He should be right there with the top 20 golfers. But golfers are all about their game. That’s why Tiger is awesome. One look at the Leaderboard with Tiger making a charge up it, and everybody else falls apart.
BTW, someday, we’ll have a game together. I suck ass at it, but who cares? It’s Golf.
Well, we're waiting....
To add..
One of the best solos I have ever played was a 30 minute(!) solo sitting in at a bar, with a conga player. I was playing another guys kit, playing a song I have never played or rehearsed with that bar band. I knew the bass player and the drummer, and they asked me to sit in for a tune. But they didn’t tell me I had to do a drum solo. I don’t do “Drum Solos” like the “Here is Machine Gun drummer!”. I phrase the drums. But here I was, doing a solo.
I did stuff I never thought I could pull off. I rarely practiced during that time. The drummer of the band asked a buddy of mine if I did. He said “He never practices. He just plays”. I wound up getting soaked with beer, and left the stage shaking a lot of hands with beers in them for me.
This is what I mean by “throwing to the spot”. Steve Young talks about the one pass he remembers to Rice, where he didn’t even see where he threw the ball, but while on his back, he heard cheers from the crowd because it was a touchdown. That’s when he knew how to trust himself. That’s where the hard work on his craft came in. Young always talked about football and being a QB in it as a craft. Watching Young perfect his craft in the brutal sport of football, as well as living up to expectations of his craft was awesome. He got it when he trusted himself. He was like a Jazz musician, improvising and making his band reach new heights, like Rice. He knew the music inside out after that pass. That’s when he knew how to make his music better.
Steve Young was an artist at the game of football. But, he had to work hard to get there. I can go back to watching him throw 6 TD’s in a game, like I listen to “Seven Steps to Heaven”.
Well, we're waiting....
But Steve Young
didn’t become an artist until he had the right tools in place. He was horrible in Tampa Bay (though he showed flashes of brilliance). Even with the Niners his early games weren’t so hot.
In 1987 (first season with the Niners) he only completed 53% of his passes. Same thing in 1988. In 1989 he had a great year and completed 69% of his passes. In 1990 he regressed and went back to 61%. He took several years to put together the pieces.
To use another musical analogy.
Bruce Springsteen with the E Street Band is better than Bruce Springsteen without the band. But the band didn’t come together for him completely until after he’d be performing for awhile. The original incarnation had David Sancious on keyboards and Vini “Mad Dog” Lopez on drums. Sancious quit to pursue a solo jazz career and Lopez was fired. His immediate replacement was Ernest “Boom” Carter but he didn’t work out either. In 1974 Bruce had auditions and hired Max Weinberg to drum and Roy Bittan to play piano.
Steve Van Zandt joined the band later that summer.
The next year Born to Run was released and in 1978 came Darkness on the Edge of Town, both of which are among the great rock ‘n’ roll albums of all time.
It took some time for the right sound to develop though. Sancious and Lopez had a completely different style than Bittan and Weinberg. The original incarnation of the E Street Band could never have recorded Born to Run or Darkness on the Edge of Town.
All I’m saying (and all I’ve ever said) is that we don’t know yet what we have in Smith and it’s premature to be going out and getting another first round QB.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Bob Dylan...
Going electric was thought of as doom for his career. Springsteen’s “Nebraska” was pure Bruce with Lo-fi. “Atlantic City” is genius.
I can’t see why Young’s stats in 1987 mean shit here. Montana was first team All Pro that year. WTF?
Well, we're waiting....
BTW..
Good musical knowledge. Sancious is on Stanley Clarke’s “Journey to Love”, with Steve Gadd on drums.
Well, we're waiting....
Sancious and Lopez
were much too jazzy for the rock that Springsteen was trying to do.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Young
had atrocious stats with the same players that Montana had. The point is that sometimes it takes time and sometimes it takes the right personnel.
BTW Nebraska is among my top two or three favorite Springsteen albums but it’s the exception to the rule I mentioned.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Bono had..
worse stats than Young in 91 than Young in 87. Besides, 87-89 were halcyon days with Young being a big part of the 89 season.
But, how does this apply with Smith? I forget with the music stuff.
Well, we're waiting....
I think Smith's 09 supporting cast was better than the Jets
but guess who’s in the play-offs as a rookie? Dirty…
Looking to put San Fran*six-o* here some time soon!
ok… the jets O-line is far and away better than ours. that teams success comes from their running game and their defense. Sanchez isn’t playing any better than smith.
by hellaninersfan on Jan 4, 2010 3:29 PM PST up reply actions
I like the idea of a power run team
that’s what I want to see too. I’d love to build a team on that philosophy because then it really doesn’t matter who you have as your QB.
Starts with the offensive line and the defense. We’re almost there defensively but we’re a long way from there offensively.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
I've read somewhere..
That Smith is a FA in 2011. I think the info is correct, and that’s something to think about when it comes to the QB situation. More reasons why to build a power team, and maybe because that’s the football Singletary feels comfortable coaching.
Well, we're waiting....
Not me
that is pretty boring to watch. Not to mention, a majority of the successful NFL teams are trending more to high flying aerial-attacks. You have to be able to put points up fast in todays NFL. The ball bounces the wrong way a few times and your team is formatted to “power-run”, then there most often is no catching up.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
But you start there first...
and then bring the passing game along later. I’ve always been an advocate of a dynamic passing attack, but this year, it’s been way to inconsistent. To me, they are more confused on when and where to pass, and what kind of plays to use in the passing game, and a lot of that has to do with Smith like it did with Hill.
Well, we're waiting....
To do either effectively, you must have an Oline that can execute both on run blocking and pass blocking. It start there regardless of the QB situation.
Also, sometimes QB’s excel when the talent around them is so high. There are a bunch of factors obviously but I think the biggest starts within the trenches.
Since you’re a golfer, I am not sure how good you are or bad you are but even if you are good I am sure that you can think back to times when maybe you werent so good. I dont know about you but I always seemed to have my better games when playing with guys who were better than me. Whenever I golfed with guys who worse or on par with how I played, thats where my game was stunted.
I think the same goes for Alex. We are now seeing a few peices put in place and he (whether people want to acknowledge or not) made progress from previous years.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
I'm not much of a golfer...
But I do work a Major every year for the past 4 years. I’ll use a bit of your analogy when it comes to playing music. Of course, I like to play with good players. I makes it easier for me. But I can’t just walk into Steve Vai’s crib and sight read “Mo and Herb’s Vacation” and nail while they are rolling record. I’m sure I can hang with it in the practice room, and I do have the talent to try to play it as well as understand it, but unless I was a phenom like Vinnie Colauita (who is like the Peyton Manning of drummers) at his age and now, I would have to have played for years to get to that level before I could step into that situation. In other words, I would leave the chair open to another drummer because I simply wasn’t on that level yet. Not that I could never be, but I wasn’t on the level that day, or month. I still have a lot of work to do, and need to still work on technique, because that chart requires a ton of it.
Well, we're waiting....
Okay but how would you fit in with guys who were maybe relative in age (or terms of playing age) but were maybe slightly better than you? More than likely you would play to their level I am assuming? I dont know music that well in terms of playing but you are using an analogy of a guy who is years beyond your capability. With the Niners and Alex, the team is all relatively young and near the same age. They are going to grow together. It’s not like Alex is playing with a bunch of veteran guys who are well above and beyond where he is at in his development.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
Well..
Say I was Tony Williams at age 17. I was playing with Herbie Hancock who was near my age, in the Miles Davis Quintet. Both Herbie and I changed Jazz music forever in that Quintet. Miles was Singletary.
Tony is my all time hero who I studied with years back in SF. He is known as one of the greatest Jazz musicians that has ever lived. His talent was remarkable, he technique was phenomenal, yet he preached fundamentals every day. I was in awe when I first met him. He drilled me hard on the little things that make me a better musician. His Creedo was all about respect of the music, and the drums.
The point is, I had to have my shit together in order to play with anybody. I didn’t have the luxury of excuses because they didn’t have the luxury of making excuses for me. I either had the goods for the gig, or I didn’t. If I didn’t out the time in, I didn’t put the time in. If I wasn’t as good as the next guy, I wasn’t as good as the next guy. But I did seek out on how to better my craft, and I went after the best to teach me. It was all up to me, and nobody else.
Here is something cool: I was having a smoke outside Drum World in the Excelsior District waiting for Tony. He pulled up in his BMW, and we talked for a bit before the lesson. He was smoking a cigar, and we were talking football. This was the year of the last 49er SB run. What surprised me was that Tony really knew football. He was from Boston, and moved to the Bay Area in the 70’s I think. He was talking about Billy Kilmer, Sonny Jurgenson, LOL. I finally asked him who his favorite NFL team was.
He looked at me and said “The San Francisco 49ers, or course”.
God Bless Tony. He was like God to me, and he loved the 49ers, so that means God loved the 49ers.
Take that Jerrah.
Well, we're waiting....
I think that trend will end. The Ravens and Bucs followed up with SB’s after the Rams. NE hasn’t won a SB since becoming a team that relies more on offense. The Colts only won SB while the Steelers won two.
This season heavily favored the passing attack but the season also had a lot of QB’s still in their prime.
Well if thats the case, then maybe we should spend all our draft picks on RB’s, because I gaurantee that Gore will not hold up again taking on the full work load. Not with all the leg injuries he has had.
I just dont see that trend ending. As the game speeds up, so does the turn over ratio. We saw it a few times this year, where we tried to run, run, run with a cloud of dust. How many times did that worj out for us? Sure it will work against the weaker teams but the teams with even average front 7’s? Forget about it. They will stack the box and take that away and FORCE us to pass as they all did for the first half of the season. I dont care how awesome your run game is, in today’s NFL, it can be shut down if you cannot pass also. And pass often and efficiently. We saw that when the Viking tried that a few times this year…at least I did. Shut down AP and forced Brett to beat them and he did.
I really think that you have to work things oppositely of what you guys are saying. You have to be able to pass effectively to open up the run. Otherwise people are putting 10 in the box.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
The last AZ game...
was total “Singletary Football”. They used Gore when it counted, and Gore was the f’ing man that day. So was the defense.
It can work, and the 49ers can win with it.
Well, we're waiting....
They arent going to create 7 turnovers ever game
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
A team like the Colts or Saints would have put up 40-60 points off 7 turn overs. We managed 24. 2 of the TD’s were set up off of turnovers right near the goaline. Nedney got a FG and then there was like a 40 yard pass to Crabtree which was the highlight of the game.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
Well there you go..
those 2 teams have excellent QB’s. Heck, Manning does a lot with less. He pretty much has Dallas Clark and whoever.
Well, we're waiting....
I think that if there's one thing the past couple of weeks have shown us
is that the Colt’s offense relies much more on Manning than previously though. Sure he has a great O-line but Curtis Painter had the same O-line and same recievers and stunk it up horribly.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
He’s Curtis Painter…C’mon. Wha’d you expect? That was his first playing time in the NFL. He’s had like 1.2 games. And if I recall correctly, it was the LT that pretty much let (I forget who it was) go in nearly untouched to strip the ball.
Why dont you use an example more fitting like Brady taking over for Drew Bledsoe when he went down? That may be a more fair comparison.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
Not to mention...
It’s not the 49ers. Power running hasn’t been the 49ers since the 1960’s. Say what you will about institutions but institutionally since Red Hinckley created the shotgun and used it to beat the Baltimore Colts at Kezar Field, the 49ers have been a dynamic passing offenses. It’s imbued in the team’s DNA.
The Ravens blitz, the Steelers power run, the 49ers pass for their bread and butter. Some things don’t change and are best left unchanged because that’s what the institution expects and it’s what the institution can support.
We've never had a power runner before
Like we do in Frank Gore.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
People are really forgetting...
Joe Perry and J.D Smith. Hearst had more burst and power than Gore, and was awesome getting the edge.
Well, we're waiting....
Hearst's career was cut short because of that
injury. Sucks to think what he could’ve done if that hadn’t happened.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
It was more a comment...
On the “three yards and a cloud of dust” offensive philosophy that was espoused before the beginning of the season.
They're also forgetting that...
Roger Craig really wasn’t a finesse guy. He tended to try and run over people more often than go around them. John Henry Johnson, who could deliver blocks that actually crushed people’s facemasks (how often does anyone do that, even now with much bigger and stronger players?), was on the 49ers for a couple of years in the 50s.
49ers can find defense
They need a safety so offenses can stop going over the top because they certainly had trouble going through it. Eliminate that gaping hole than the 49ers are in every game despite the poor offense.
The other huge issue on offense despite the QB is the ability to control the football. The offense couldn’t run this year either, it was feast or famine. It’s almost mission impossible to find a guys worse than a few blocking for them this season.
I’d be happy to get into the Jets range by the end of 2010. Solid defense, running game, now the team can plug in a rookie QB and still compete for a playoff spot in the 2011 with a hope for more in the future.
The QB play is unacceptable
It’s been unacceptable for years. Now yes, I think Davis looked promising in the preseason, but you can’t rest all your hopes on a couple games against second stringers and street free agents. Is it Rams level bad? No. But considering the inceredible importance of the QB position, it is a need.
by Brendan Scolari on Jan 3, 2010 8:59 PM PST up reply actions
"Franchise" QBs.
The truth is, there’s no way to know if one of the QBs available at our picks is a “franchise” QB or not.
Drafting QBs is a crapshoot. You end up having to pay them a lot of money and you don’t know what you’re going to end up with. Even with the top pick, the Thaler article I’ve referenced a couple of times points out that the top pick in the draft is about equally likely to be out of the league in five years, to never play a game in five years, and to be a pro-bowler in his first five years. (The odds of each of those three things is about 9%).
Quite frankly, if you believe Smith can be a league-average QB, it’s almost impossible to have confidence that you’ll draft a QB better than him with any given pick. Add to that the amount of money first-round QBs earn (it’s worth pointing out that the slotting system doesn’t apply to QBs!) and you’re committing a lot of cap space for the long run in a player who you have very little confidence in.
This leads me to believe that the best strategy is to draft QBs in mid-to-late rounds nearly every year, cycle the guys through and keep the guys who show potential.
The truth is, even if we DID draft a QB in the first round next year, he probably wouldn’t be ready to start next season, so Alex Smith is going to get another season to show what he can do. Therefore, I’d RATHER use another late-round pick, with the plan of cutting Hill, and having our lineup next year being Smith-Davis-late-round-pick. This gives Smith a chance to show continued improvement, allows us to spend our resoruces wisely on other positions (say, picking up a safety and a RT) and yet it doesn’t bind us to Smith forever.
The risk of that strategy is that if Smith doesn’t improve, and Davis ends up not developing, then we’ve got a pretty big hole at QB.
But I happen to think Smith can and will improve – with a full camp, I think he’ll get a little more accurate. WIth more reps with his receivers, he’ll get better timing with them, and that should improve his accuracy. After all, he was significantly better this year than he had been previously, so why not give him a chance to build on it?
But remember that any plan involving drafting a QB this year is really planning for the 2011 season. We aren’t going to draft a QB this year who will be better than Smith in the 2010 season. Maybe it makes sense to start planning for 2011 … but I’m not sure that’s a wise investment of a first-round pick.
re:
The truth is, there’s no way to know if one of the QBs available at our picks is a "franchise" QB or not.
Obviously there’s no way to know. But without taking a guy you think can be a franchise QB there’s little hope of finding an answer beyond praying a late round pick pans out.
Drafting QBs is a crapshoot. You end up having to pay them a lot of money and you don’t know what you’re going to end up with. Even with the top pick, the Thaler article I’ve referenced a couple of times points out that the top pick in the draft is about equally likely to be out of the league in five years, to never play a game in five years, and to be a pro-bowler in his first five years. (The odds of each of those three things is about 9%).
Maybe I’m misunderstanding you, but the odds of drafting a probowler with the first overall pick (or even a top 10 pick) is much, much higher than 9%. I believe it’s in the neighborhood of 50%. And yes, the risk is quite a bit higher, but the reward is exponentially higher as well.
Quite frankly, if you believe Smith can be a league-average QB, it’s almost impossible to have confidence that you’ll draft a QB better than him with any given pick. Add to that the amount of money first-round QBs earn (it’s worth pointing out that the slotting system doesn’t apply to QBs!) and you’re committing a lot of cap space for the long run in a player who you have very little confidence in.
Disagree. I believe Smith’s ceiling is an average player, and his odds of even reaching that are not that good. The average 1st round pick is much more likely to develop into a annual Pro-Bowler than Smith at this point.
This leads me to believe that the best strategy is to draft QBs in mid-to-late rounds nearly every year, cycle the guys through and keep the guys who show potential.
A strategy I’ve heard echoed a lot by fans, and I like it as long as you have a top QB while your doing it (for example New England or Indy drafting late round QB’s every year would b a good idea in my opinion) but when you don’t have a current solution then this idea takes too long and is too risky. So what if you go five years and never find an answer? Are you prepared to wait another five years hoping to find a late round gem?
The truth is, even if we DID draft a QB in the first round next year, he probably wouldn’t be ready to start next season, so Alex Smith is going to get another season to show what he can do.
The risk of that strategy is that if Smith doesn’t improve, and Davis ends up not developing, then we’ve got a pretty big hole at QB.
I agree strongly with both statements, and that’s exactly why I think it would be smart to look at taking a QB in the first round. Smith still gets another year to start, so if he has some miracle breakout you have a wonderful problem on your hands, if he is predictably poor then you have a replacement ready. And you don’t risk going into 2011/2012 without any hope of an answer other than a prayer (Nate Davis turing into a good starter, the odds are long for any late round pick).
But I happen to think Smith can and will improve – with a full camp, I think he’ll get a little more accurate. WIth more reps with his receivers, he’ll get better timing with them, and that should improve his accuracy. After all, he was significantly better this year than he had been previously, so why not give him a chance to build on it?
I think he might improve too but only marginally, not enough to make him someone you want as your starter. He’s haid enough time that the odds are very long that he makes very significant improvements on the player he is (and obviously, he needss to make huge improvements to be a long term starter).
But remember that any plan involving drafting a QB this year is really planning for the 2011 season. We aren’t going to draft a QB this year who will be better than Smith in the 2010 season. Maybe it makes sense to start planning for 2011 … but I’m not sure that’s a wise investment of a first-round pick.
Better late than never. The offense won’t ever be more than decent until the Niners find a dependable QB, I don’t see why people are so happy to keep waiting.
by Brendan Scolari on Jan 3, 2010 8:49 PM PST up reply actions
Better late than never. The offense won’t ever be more than decent until the Niners find a dependable QB, I don’t see why people are so happy to keep waiting.
The offense won’t be any better until we fix the offensive line. You don’t build a house unless you get the supports built first. Whether or not Smith is the guy anybody else you toss in behind this atrocious line is going to struggle too. Fix the line and we have at the least a serviceable QB. Fix the O-line and we won’t need a franchise QB—we can put it all on the legs of Frank Gore and in a couple of years we can put it on the legs of his replacement.
Fix the O-line next year and then we’ll know for sure if it’s Smith or if it’s the guys in front of him.
Besides, like Drew says there ain’t a QB out there worth picking up with our first round pick. I wouldn’t mind getting someone like Pike or Hall in a later round but I sure as hell don’t want to spend a first round pick on Clausen, Bradford or Tebow.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
The real problem is that we drafted Smith without a good OL
We still don’t have a good OL, so why draft another QB in the 1st round who will get killed out there?
Fix the OLine first! Then add a Franchise QB.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Smith was kinda average (by DVOA)
for most of the year… only in the last few weeks has he dropped to replacement level.
Which makes him… replacement level.
I could see spending a late round pick on some high upside guy if you thought Davis could back up Smith (cut Hill). But I think we should let Raye and Singletary have a year to build a team, then worry about upgrading the QB. My plan would be to try to make the playoffs next year, and think about superbowl in 2011/2012.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
I'm pretty sure
that he was only talking about 1st pick QBs.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
" believe it’s in the neighborhood of 50%. "
My mistake. I apologize. The numbers I cited were for first round picks in general, NOT for the first pick. See below.
That being said, in my opinion, whether or not you think a guy can be a franchise QB is almost irrelvant. The evidence shows that lots of people THINK they have a franchise QB, and are wrong – almost comically so. I’ve come to the conclusion – and you may, as well, if you read the gladwell article I link below – that nobody knows anything about drafting QBs. Sometimes you’ll be right, by blind luck.
Even Bill Walsh. Was he great at evaluating QB talent, or did he just understand better than anybody else how to put a QB in a position to succeed?
“Disagree. I believe Smith’s ceiling is an average player, and his odds of even reaching that are not that good. The average 1st round pick is much more likely to develop into a annual Pro-Bowler than Smith at this point.”
I think you are severely undervaluing the bust potential of first-round draft picks, and severly overvaluing the likelihood that they make pro bowls. Ah. Here’s the citation I got wrong in my above post:
Page 5. A first round pick has a 17% chance of being a bust – defined as starting no games or being out of the league in their first five years. That only has a 9% chance of appearing in a pro bowl over that time.
In other words, just looking at those extremes, we are nearly twice as likely to draft a player much worse than Smith as we are to draft a player enough better to qualify as a “franchise QB.”
“A strategy I’ve heard echoed a lot by fans, and I like it as long as you have a top QB while your doing it (for example New England or Indy drafting late round QB’s every year would b a good idea in my opinion) but when you don’t have a current solution then this idea takes too long and is too risky. So what if you go five years and never find an answer? Are you prepared to wait another five years hoping to find a late round gem?”
In this circumstance, I think the smart thing to do is to sign a mid-level free agent pickup.
The problem is that the bust percentage on top QB draft picks is ridiculously high, and the cost of a bust QB pick is disproportionately high. You’ve got a 17% chance of drafting a bust anyway, in the first round, and I strongly suspect that it’s much higher for QBs (I can’t find good statistics about this, but read, say for a sense of the scale of the problem.
Add to that the problem of compensation. first-round QBs get paid more than anybody else. So you have a higher bust percentage, a bigger salary cap hit, etc. YOu simply can’t afford to bring one of those guys in very often. Lastly, what we’ve seen with Alex Smith isn’t that rare: 2, 3 years in with a young QB you still don’t really know what you have. (I mean, didn’t Smith do better this year than you thought he was capable of? That may not be good enough, but if you had reached a conclusion about him after three years, it would have been wrong.) And not just Alex Smith – the same mistake was made with Drew Brees, who just might be the best QB in the game this year. Three yeras in, San Diego gave up on him by drafting Rivers.
Whoops. Wasted a high pick there.
On the other hand, you spend those high picks on other positions, you have a lower bust percentage, you have more money to throw around on free agents, you have a situation where an average QB can be pretty successful.
“if he has some miracle breakout you have a wonderful problem on your hands”
Ah, you see, I don’t think this is a “wonderful problem.” Smith isn’t under contract for very long, so it would be hard to get much for him in terms of a trade. If we draft a QB who ends up being good, and Smith improves, then the odds are good we let one of them walk for very little, getting poor value for the pick.
" (and obviously, he needss to make huge improvements to be a long term starter)."
I’m not so sure. I think the difference between success and failure in the NFL is pretty small. As I wrote yesterday, there were 4-5 passes Smith made which weren’t caught because they weren’t that accurate – but they weren’t terrible throws, either. He makes those passes a little bit better, and he has a GREAT day, not merely an okay one.
" I don’t see why people are so happy to keep waiting."
It’s the dearth of other good opportunities, really. I don’t think we’re likely to find somebody better than Smith in the first round, so I’d rather see the team find other ways to improve. A team won the super bowl with Trent Dilfer at QB, and Smith is already better than that guy was, so why not build towards that type of contender while giving Smith a chance to keep improving and making safer choices about improving the QB play?
I think we've discussed the bust rates of QBs many times on this forum
This is what I wrote last august:
The reality is that QB is a very tough position and that almost all QB draft picks, regardless of round picked, are busts. I will say that first and second round QBs have a slightly lower bust rates. (Note: I am aware that its a little early to judge some of the more recently drafted players.)
In the past 15 years, there have been 37 first round QBs:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?pos=QB&round_1=1&round_2=1&tm=all&year_1=1993&year_2=2008&conference=any&type=
I count 13 as having decent or better careers (Cutler, Rivers, Big Ben, Eli M., Palmer, McNabb, Peyton M., Culpepper (for a couple of years), Bledsoe, Pennington (barely), McNair, Ryan and Rodgers…jury still out on Flacco). That’s a 35% success rate.
In that same time period, there have been 16 QBs selected in the second round. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?year_1=1993&year_2=2008&tm=all&pos=QB&round_1=2&round_2=2&slot_1=1&slot_2=500&conference=any&show=all&lg=ANY&type=
I count 5 (Brees, Batch, Plummer, Banks and Kordell) that have had decent careers – a 31% success rate.
Finally, there have been 137 QBs taken in rounds 3-8 during the period (back when there was a round 8). http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?year_1=1993&year_2=2008&tm=all&pos=QB&round_1=3&round_2=30&slot_1=1&slot_2=500&conference=any&show=all&lg=ANY&type=
Here are the ones that have had decent careers or better: Elvis Grbac, Trent Green, Mark Brunell, Gus Frerotte, Matt Hasselbeck, Brian Griese, Aaron Brooks, Tom Brady, Marc Bulger, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel, Derek Anderson and Kyle Orton (those last three are generous, but I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt for discussion purposes). That’s 14 "decent" or better careers out of 137 players chosen, an 10% success rate.
I have no way to do this for undrafted players with Warner and Garcia, but the numbers do show that the odds are better in the first two rounds. The difference, though, is that while you have a lower chance of hitting on a QB in the later rounds, you’re also investing much less in those picks. You’re not handing out huge contracts (like that awarded to Stafford) and you’re not passing on players at other positions with lower bust rates. It appears that 3 late round qb picks are just as good as one pick in the first two rounds. So which would you rather do?
I, for one, would prefer we draft other positions with our top picks next year and then spend a late pick (3rd to 6th round) on a promising QB (i.e. exactly what we did with the Nate Davis pick).
by kiyoshi on Jan 4, 2010 6:16 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
In one round you have 30-32 teams pick, depending on expansion teams in or out.
You are comparing 6 rounds to 2 single rounds which is always gonna be a lower percentage. 137 vs 37 and 16, if there were 137 1st rounders to compare the success rate would go down, as there is normally 2-3 decent QB’s per draft and some seasons 0-1 (2005). Some teams have to take a QB just because they need one and get stuck with the best of what’s avail. (see Alex Smith). Bust happen in their own percentages and I don’t think round has anything to do with it. I do however, think that this is the deepest QB draft in a looooooong time.
" Up against the wall Scott, you to Mike, I love you alot but you're here"
rlott#42: Scott the fifth pick is here and Berry is on the board, you need to get a deal done!
Scott: "Now wait a minute you mean to tell me this is about our current draft and not the past ones? Whew, thought I was a goner, I'll dial up and get him."
Mike: You'll do wha? Listen here young man"
rlott#42: It's rlott#42 Mike call me Furious
Mike: Well Mr. Furious, there are some things here that need to get done for this football team, and this is not part of the plan.
rlott#42: I'm gonna make this simple Mike, make the move or Scott gets it in the head, this is also for the team, Berry in sappy seahawks green, nah not gonna happen, the best two prospects go to our division? Not on my watch"
Scott: Leave it alone Mike, I got this like last years draft, just trust me
Mike: Here we go again
rlott#42: ROTFL
rlott#42: I'll be back next year before you trade the future for Locker
Scott: (to Mike) Who has he been talking to?
Mike: Shutup Scott this is two drafts in a row, I don't get what is neccessary
Scott: We have another 1st rounder
Mike: Oh, I see what he is doing, ok top 5 defense next year, ok Furious, do what you do
People have to remember that the percentages are also influenced by job openings
and or the team they play on.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
that's not how rate stats work.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
You are comparing 6 rounds to 2 single rounds which is always gonna be a lower percentage
That’s not true at all.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
there’s nothing about larger samples that makes them less likely to be successful in and of themselves.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
When looking at drafting QB's
There will always be more taken in the later rounds. If 3 QB’s are drafted this year in round 1 and 6 in round 6 there is a greater chance of success as well as unsuccess of those drafted in round 6. When a QB is drafted means nothing, it’s what he has and does it fit what you are trying to do. QB’s that are successful in one system will not always be successful in another.
#42
no, there's not.
if you have a rate of success of 10%, it doesn’t matter if you draft 10 QBs or 10,000. You’ll have MORE successes if you draft 10,000, but the RATE will be the same.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
I don't understand what you mean
Are you saying that teams don’t pick more QBs in the first round because they aren’t worthy of being picked? Also, are you suggesting there’s so better way to do this? Also, what do you mean by “Bust happen in their own percentages?”
And how can you possibly argue that round has nothing to do with it? Players picked higher statistically perform better. Go on profootballreference.com and check for yourself.
You don't need stats to know that bust rates are gonna be higher with later round QB's that should be a given with all positions!
Tribute to #44........The Elmira Express
But you do need stats to tell HOW MUCH higher
And that difference is relevant.
I thought you were being generous with your 2nd round successes: Batch and Kordell? I’m not even sure which Batch you are talking about. The backup currently on the Steelers?
Yeah, and Banks was actually a bust...
He didn’t stay anywhere all that long, and played like a wino everywhere he went.
Yeah, I was generous, but I was trying to draw a "bust" line
I was attempting to draw the line at a decent player, not necessarily an all star. In other words, guys that weren’t total busts. I think Kordell definitely qualifies. Kordell was the primary starter on his team for 5 years, put up some decent (not great, but decent) numbers, made a pro bowl and took his team to a conference championship. Was he a great QB? No. But he wasn’t a bust.
I agree that Charlie Batch and Tony Banks are tougher to justify. Charlie Batch was a serviceable, won’t cost you the game, game-manager type QB for years. Yes, he was a back up most of his career, but he stuck in the league for 9 years, started 50 games and had a career rating of 77.9. Again, not great. Is he a bust? I don’t know. Its close. He served some purpose during his career. Banks wasn’t great either, but he did throw for 15,000 yards and was in the league for nine years. Its really a line drawing problem. I was trying to draw a consistent line, which was why I also included Gus Ferrotte, Matt Cassel, Derek Anderson, Culpepper and Kyle Orton. Those guys are stretches too.
By the way, I would add Henne to the list of “decent” or better second round qbs. I know he’s only started half a season, but he looks really good. If you take out Batch and Banks, the non-bust rate drops from 31% to 19%. If you add Henne back in it goes up to 25%.
Its actually kind of fun to do this. You can look all this stuff up on profootballreference.com and compare for yourself.
BRENDAN!!!
Remember that “Why Shaun Hill isn’t a good QB” epic post? Who is gonna argue with you now?
Good to see you back.
Well, we're waiting....
Thanks brother
The only thing funnier than that post was when two guys argued with me that Shaun Hill was better than Tony Romo in like week 3. After week 4 Hill’s approval rating was what, 98%? Two weeks later…
by Brendan Scolari on Jan 3, 2010 8:55 PM PST up reply actions
BTW
welcome back. It’s been awhile since you’ve been around.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
The 49ers wound up in another conundrum...
Albeit with better statistical results as far as passing, but I think going into this next season, Smith should be looked at as critical as you and we looked at Hill, without the Rose Colored Homer glasses. I’m with you in respect that the 49ers cannot afford to become complacent at the QB position, and like what we saw in the QB change with Smith, better options should be explored because Smith can’t mask other offensive issues that a good QB can. I feel the offense compensates for Smith much like it did with Hill, and that’s not they way to build an offense. I think the 49ers have just as much a question mark in Smith as you would a true Blue Chip pick at this point, or even another FA mid-tier guy like Campbell.
Well, we're waiting....
Totally agree
Pick up a QB in the later rounds have them all have a real battle for starting position and fix the line.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Good Analysis Brendan.
And, may I add, that I’ve been arguing on other posts that the sanest thing to do would have been to let Davis start the last two games to see what if anything he had going in terms of potential. We all should know Alex Smith’s potential by now. He’s not going to turn into Drew Brees. That should be known to all but the most ostrich-like fan. The kid has been given so many starts and blown so many passes. His accuracy is not there. His ability to audible a play that skunks the D is not there.
Watching him play is like watching the paint peel off. Slow, boring, ugly, and guess, what, eventually we’re going to need a new paint job. Why anyone in the world thinks the paint is going to get better over time is not rational, and hasn’t been watching this kid define “slightly below average” over the last FIVE years. This is torture.
Tell them again
Five years of on/off again play is enough. Some qbs only got 3 and guess what, they BACKUPS for other teams. We are not trying to run the spread offense next year. O line play was the reason for this strategy. But think, was there a qb who sat, watched and learned from this season. Already came into the league with a chip on his shoulder (pro day & drafted 5th, expected to go 2nd or 3rd round). It is the nature of the beast, new coach/new QB. Coach has given Smith the best situation to revive his career. But failing to win 3 critical games proved that a FA, Nate Davis, or a (gulp) rookie qb. Davis gave Niners fans such a buzz and excitement, just off preseason play. Based on that, Smith will again fail to prove and we can finally leave the Nolan era. Hmmm (Smith to Denver for….)
Merry Christmas! 49ers friends and family!
by chriscream on Jan 4, 2010 9:29 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Tell them again
Five years of on/off again play is enough. Some qbs only got 3 and guess what, they BACKUPS for other teams. We are not trying to run the spread offense next year. O line play was the reason for this strategy. But think, was there a qb who sat, watched and learned from this season. Already came into the league with a chip on his shoulder (pro day & drafted 5th, expected to go 2nd or 3rd round). It is the nature of the beast, new coach/new QB. Coach has given Smith the best situation to revive his career. But failing to win 3 critical games proved that a FA, Nate Davis, or a (gulp) rookie qb. Davis gave Niners fans such a buzz and excitement, just off preseason play. Based on that, Smith will again fail to prove and we can finally leave the Nolan era. Hmmm (Smith to Denver for….)
Merry Christmas! 49ers friends and family!
by chriscream on Jan 4, 2010 9:29 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I wonder...
What was Jay Cutler’s DVOA last season. Yet I’m sure you would probably take Cutler over Smith right?
by return2greatness on Jan 9, 2010 1:38 PM PST up reply actions
Drew Brees not good??
I remember Drew Brees at San Diego, he was very good. I guess you may have forgotten his shoulder injury which brought into question his durability which is why they traded him away. Alex Smith obviously has no consistency which is the hallmark of a BAD QB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
J GO
Drew Brees in SD was actually not that good until Rivers showed up
His best season before the arrival of Phillip Rivers (when the team had given up on him) had him putting up the following numbers:
60.8% comp. 3.2% int. 6.2 YPA.
Compare that to Smith’s number’s this year:
60.5% comp. 3.2%int. 6.3 yards/att.
As a point of comparison, to gauge the overall quality of the offense aside from the QB, let me point out that Brees had a top-10 rushing attack that year. We had one this year that was ranked either 25th or 30th, depending on how you want to count. So Smith was putting up nearly identical numbers with a higher degree of difficulty.
After losing much of his third season to injury, SD drafted Rivers, but then Brees had his breakout season in his 4th year. (On a team with a top-5 running game).
Brees had his breakout year in his fourth season. Smith improved dramatically in his 4th season, but none of us would call it a “breakout” year.
But since Smith’s best year in his first four years is almost identical to Brees best year in his first three yeras, albiet with much less supporting talent, I think that actually argues for giving Smith another year.
Smith over Hill
I keep hearing that based on winning percentage, Hill should get the nod over Smith. The biggest problem with this reasoning is that people are using Smith’s record from past years with different coaches and even while he was injured. Let’s just compare the two from this season only, when the situation is as equal as is practical:
Both have a winning percentage of 50% in games they started.
(Hill = 3 & 3 / Smith = 5 & 5.)
Yes I would like to see more improvement from Smith, but I also think it’s delusional to think Hill should start ahead of Smith. I also think it would be pure folly to waste yet another 1st round pick on a QB. Check the Niner history on that tact.
Go Niners!!!
What do the Niners do about Smith's contract?
I think that the big issue with Smith is…he is a FA after next season.
Should the Niners treat him as their franchise QB and extend his contract now? Or should they let him play next year as the starter and then try to deal with it after next season when he is an unrestricted FA? The problem with the first approach is – what if he busts next year or what if Nate Davis proves he is the future? You are stuck with an expensive problem. The problem with the second approach is – if he proves next year that he can handle the position (or even provides adequate play such that the team reaches the playoffs)…you have to shell out a ridiculous contract for the guy because the team will be competing with everyone else for his services.
How the Niners handle this decision is going to affect how the franchise is run for the next few years. If you ditch Smith, you lose continuity, have to start all over again and probably kill your chances at the playoffs for a couple of seasons. If you stick with him and he doesn’t progress, you’ve delayed starting over, potentially handicapped your salary structure and killed your chances at being a contender with the current team. The Niners are really rolling the dice here and the only way this has a positive outcome is if Smith progresses and becomes an Average to Good quarterback over the next year (or two). As Niner fans, let’s hope that he makes good.
Smith deserves to be the starter in 2010 but he hasn't proved himself to the degree that you want to extend his contract yet.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
This
He’ll be starting for us next year most likely. At the end of next year the organization can look at him and see what we should do.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
That's exactly the problem, isn't it?
Say Smith plays well next year. For example, he passes for 3,900 yards, 28 TDs and a 90 rating. That kind of performance is certainly achievable off of his performance this year and a second year in the same system. Heck, that’s what I expect from him. Those kind of numbers probably put him just in the range of 10-15 best quarterbacks in the league. Well…the Niners make the playoffs, but don’t win the Super Bowl. They want to build off of that performance and are looking to be contenders for years to come. Oooops. Sorry. They’re quarterback is an UFA and leaves for another team that’s looking for a quarterback and willing to guarantee a lot of money to a quarterback that just proved he could be a legitimate starter in the NFL. Niners get one season in the playoffs and then have to start over at the QB position.
I can’t see that being allowed to happen. No team lets their 26-year old starting quarterback’s contract expire and allow him to be a free agent. It doesn’t happen. The Niners can’t and shouldn’t let it happen either. Their in a bad spot. They are going to have to make a bet….if not this off-season, then maybe they see how Smith performs over the first few games of the season and try to work out a restructured contract during the season. That’s the best case scenario.
If Smith plays that well next year
Then he needs to be our franchise guy and we need to throw the money at him.
Right now he’s making backup QB money.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
This isn't an issue
The QB can’t leave because the team will franchise him. I believe the 49ers did it with Steve Young while determining if he really was the real deal. If Alex Smith plays great the team is going to want to open up the checkbook to keep him for a long time They will protect him from leaving by sticking the franchise tag on him. Soon enough it will becomes clear to that QB that he is going to be paid very well with a franchise that wants his services.
Franchise tag for Alex Smith?
I can’t see that happening. He’d have to be paid the average of the top 5 QBs wouldn’t he? This is the highest paid position in the NFL. The new CBA will probably include a lower salary cap. This would be an absolute disaster for the team’s cap structure. Forget about extensions for VD, Patrick Willis, etc. Alex Smith would dominate the payroll. Have you seen the contracts for Brady, the Manning brothers, etc.?
The reality is…unless they have decided at the beginning of the season that they’re going to move on at the end of the season, he’s not going to get to mid-next season (at the absolute latest) without a contract extension in hand. A decision will probably have to be made much earlier than that.
It's for one...
… year. The franchise tag, usually, is just a way for teams to prevent other teams from talking to their free agent after free agency starts. If Smith plays well enough where the franchise tag is even in the discussion, then he’s definitely earned it.
You can't live in fear of a FA leaving
First of all, who knows what the free agent situation will be in that year. There is no CBA yet. But if there’s a franchise tag, that can be applied.
It’s also possible that the CBA will elimiate franchise tags but give the home team other advantages re-signing the QB.
Even assuming Smith has a great year, he’s going to have a lot of incentive to stick around. He knows the players, the coaches have shown faith in him. Under your hypothetical, the team is putting the pieces together and he has a real chance to win here. Smith knows – trust me, he knows – that you don’t leave a situation with WRs and an OL which is working for you to some other team for a few extra bucks, so the Niners just have to be competitive with him.
Smith has already displayed a willingness to stay in SF. This is totally a non-issue. THe team will have to make a competitive offer for him, but Smith won’t leave to go to a worse team just because the money’s a tad better.
IF he puts a season like that on the board, then 85% of the anti-Smith fans will turn around on him and like him again (witness how much the “average fan’s” opinion of Vernon Davis changed this year.
But if Smith puts together a good year, he’ll sign a Cassel-like contract, and everybody will be happy … except maybe Since79. :)
My opinion of Vernon Davis...
Has changed with Vernon Davis. I initially thought he had a ton of talent but was too immature to ever see his full potential realized on the football field. When Singletary took over, he grew up. It’s been fantastic to watch but the penalties and dropped passes still drive me nuts.
My opinion of Alex Smith was that there was a lot of potential there, but it needed development and I wasn’t sure that would happen under Singletary because it sure as hell didn’t happen under Mike Nolan.
I think what we have seen is that Mike Singletary is a coach in the truest sense of the word. He’s shaping lives, encouraging his team to grow up and taking an active interest in the development of his players. In many ways, that’s exactly what the 49ers needed.
Of course you fear FAs leaving
That’s why teams agree to extensions with players that they want to keep…before they reach FA. You don’t let a 26-year old starting QB (especially one that you’ve invested 6 years in) reach FA….unless you are convinced that he doesn’t have a place on the team in the future.
Next question:
Why would Smith sign an extension this offseason?
He’s making, relatively speaking, peanuts. He can sign another contract worth what he’s got now with a bunch of teams, albiet as a backup with a chance to compete for a starting job.
If he plays well as the starter next year, as you point out, he’s got a great negotiating position.
When I say don’t “live in fear” of FA’s leaving, I mean if you have a good reason for them to stay, and can make a reasonable, close-to-market-value-offer, that’s usually enough. Free agents leave. It happens. Smith may have that opportunity – an opportunity he’s already had once and passed on. Don’t be paranoid.
I'm not being paranoid
I think I’m being realistic…and actually saying how the NFL really works….not how you’d like it to work in an ideal world for you as a fan.
The 49ers don't know what they have...
… in Smith. The same could be said the other way around. Both sides have uncertainties about one another, and that’s why it’s going to be unlikely the 49ers sign him.
Just because they have question marks about him this season, it doesn’t mean they’ll have the same question marks about him when he “hits free agency.” That’s what franchise tags are for.
Lets not forget!
Alex Smith wants to be a 49er. He had the chance to be released and look for more money, Instead he opted to take a pay cut to stay with the team and finish what he started. Even if he has a great year, he doesn’t have enough time and good seasons to warent a huge contract. He will be paid in the middle of QB contacts. So if he has a breakout year, it won’t cost us an arm and a leg to keep him. He will only go up and take us to greater hights. Keeping him will not be an issue.
by ericalancanty on Jan 7, 2010 3:38 PM PST up reply actions
My problem with Smith is development and his lack of using touch.
Now he did make a nice touch pass down the sideline to Vernon for 70 yards last week, so he is at least showing improvement on some of his throws. I didn’t watch the game but I attended the game thread, and I seem to believe he was high on a lot of passes to Crabs. His accuracy in is question, and that’s why I would draft a late round QB, so we at least have more than one option going forward. Hill is a good backup, but I would rather not see the offense go back to the mediocrity. However, I would understand if we didn’t add a QB, but it would make more sense to add a late rounder just in case, so if we find Smith suffering next year and Davis doesn’t pan out we at least have a QB that has been in the system for a year to look at. Frankly I would take Tony Pike in this draft een though I know he would be an early selection, but I think he is the best QB in the draft.
I know his development falls on the FO so giving him 2010 makes sense, but settling on him is a bit premature. No pump fakes or reading 2nd and 3rd reads that aren’t checkdowns, no touch, and mediocre accuracy is what I think Smith entails.
True knowledge is knowing you know nothing!
#42
That happens much less...
when he gets time. The bigger story from that Rams game was how the freaking Rams were getting pressure with three and four man fronts. I think they would struggle against the Pee-Wee football teams that played at halftime. God forbid an 11 year old brings the blitz.
Why would the Rams DL not be good at a stragedy?
Remember their coach had one of the best d lines in NY that now seem to suck. Of course he is gonna coach the DL better. Their pass D was the best part of their defense.
#42
He does have a tendency to throw the ball extremely hard when he doesn't need to
And that’s something that he’s got to work on. I have to think that some of those drops were because of the speed on the football.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
looks like I came late to the party
I think Smith will continue to develop now that he is the presumed starter going into next season and will finally have some consistency in the offense he’s running. I think Raye will improve a little as he has now seen what does and doesn’t work – but I think the offense won’t be very good unless we get improvement on the OLine and Raye improves his ability to mix it up with the play calling.
Here’s my bottom line take on Smith – his ceiling is probably not what you would expect from a #1 overall pick. He most likely will never be an elite QB in the mold of Brady, Manning, or Brees. But let’s face it – very few teams have someone anywhere close to that good. I think Smith’s ceiling is more like a top 15 quarterback (not top 5, maybe top ten, probably in the upper half of all QBs). Mix that with skilled receivers and a good running game, and you can have a very competent offense.
Give him the keys in 2010 and see what happens. After that decide if you need to draft a QB (unless of course they keep both first rounders and someone good falls in their lap, then maybe draft him this year and plan to play him 3 years from now or whenever the starter is gone – sorta like the way it worked out with Leinart).
A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.
Why Can't We Do Both?
Even if we use Smith to start next season, what’s the harm in hedging our bets and grabbing a QB in this draft too? Even if we drafted a QB this year, I would in no way want him to start next season. That’s just asking for trouble. If we draft someone who can sit behind Smith for a year or two, and then take over if he proves to be better, that seems like a better route to take than waiting until we know we absolutely have to have a QB, and then drafting one, and then throwing him to the wolves. It’s not a bad thing to have a young QB developing in your system.
So I guess the question becomes whether we think Nate Davis is that “young QB developing in your system.” And, really, I guess I’m not sure about that. I just haven’t seen enough of him. He definately could be, though.
Either way, whether we draft a QB or not, Alex Smith should be the starter in 2010.
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
Got no problems with drafting a QB this year
just don’t want to spend a high round pick on it.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
QB types and Alex Smith
When I look around the new NFL (the passing league post-dynasty era) there are only four kinds
of quarterbacks who last in this league.
1: The Franchise QB
The Franchise QB is a player who makes everyone around them better and manages to thrive even
when surrounded by rather mediocre talent. The Franchise QB can take a team 80 yards in the 4th
quarter if needed. Rookies at premium positions, such as WR or TE, provide an immediate impact
when they are led by a franchise QB. These are the only QB’s who can make all of the throws
physically while still making the right decisions mentally. There are very few of these in the
NFL at any given time and all of these players are HOF-caliber. Examples include Peyton
Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers. In the new NFL, assuming 2 quality QB’s per
team, about 10% of the QB’s in the league are franchise quality.
2: The Game Manager
The Game Manager is a player who does not have the physical tools to make all of the throws,
but has a very strong mental grasp of the QB position and avoids making mistakes. This is the
kind of QB who will always have good completion percentages and TD/INT ratios, but will need
elite passing targets in order to have an All-Pro kind of season. These guys usually stick
around in the league for a decade as starters for rebuilding teams or veteran backups. This QB
will not be able to succeed without a go-to target in the passing game. Examples include Jake
Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, and Chad Pennington.
3: The Toolbox
The Toolbox has the size, arm strength, and athleticism to be a franchise QB but is either
playing in the wrong offensive system to take advantage of their talents or often makes mental
mistakes that lead to turnovers. There is a wide range of QB’s who fit this profile in the new
NFL because these QB’s are usually taken in the 1st rounds of drafts and given 2-3 seasons to
earn a contract extension. A common trait among these QB’s is inconsistency from week to week
and an ability to dominate a game similar to the franchise QB even if they don’t have the best
surrounding cast. Examples include Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell, and Michael Vick.
4: The System QB
The System QB won’t succeed on most NFL teams, but there are one or two teams who have just the
right complementary pieces to make him an All-Pro QB. These are usually Game Managers and
Toolboxes who get the perfect opportunity to succeed. These QBs will always have multiple
All-Pro targets in the passing game, a balanced rushing attack, and good offensive line
protection. This is the QB you know no other teams want to trade for, but they look great at
the moment. Examples include Brad Johnson in Minnesota, Mark Brunell in Jacksonville, and Mark
Rypien in Washington.
So the question I ask you fellow Niners fans…. which one of these, if any, describes Alex
Smith?
I personally think Alex Smith is in the process of becoming #2, The Game Manager, but he’s not
quite there yet. He’s a very intelligent person and football player who has good tools across
the board, but not necessarily great in any aspect. If that is the role he plays, then the only
better options for this franchise would be #1 (Franchise QB) and #4 (System QB).
Now name a QB who you believe could have walked into the Niners locker room on Opening Day ’09
and led this offense to much better success than Alex Smith had this year. I have a short list
and they are all untouchable, untradable Franchise QB’s. That eliminates #4 from the equation
in my eyes. There were limited weapons on this team to start with and going into next season
the team has a legit core in Gore, Davis, and Crabtree. Still, this offense won’t be considered
dynamic or explosive by any means. Placing a great offensive line in front of Alex Smith also
does not make this offense explosive in my opinion, it just means he’ll likely make less
mistakes and throw fewer INTs.
The only other option is to get a Franchise QB. Good luck with that. If that’s the route you
prefer, then the Niners would need to trade up in this year’s draft to select the best
available prospect (Clausen or Bradford). I don’t know anyone in their right mind who thinks
that is the best move for this franchise.
So based on my analysis, there are only two short-term options:
1. Bring in a veteran who plays the Game Manager role better than Alex Smith. I don’t see that
QB out there right now. Garcia is past his prime, Delhomme is washed up, and I doubt Seattle
lets Hasselbeck go.
2. Surround Alex Smith with the talent that fits his style of play and elevates him to an
All-Pro level. Instead of drafting another QB and hoping you get a Franchise QB, why not build
a system around a QB who shows some signs of promise at a young age?
Right now the Niners have Crabtree, V. Davis, Morgan, and Gore as offensive weapons. There
aren’t too many QB’s in the NFL who would put up great numbers with those receiving options and
a weak offensive line. The 3rd and 4th WR positions along with backup RB are a black hole for
this team. Where is the depth and where is the change of pace? Everyone on this team runs at
the same speed it seems.
Is someone honestly going to say that the Niners offense wouldn’t be far more successful with
two or three of the following players?
- Big-bodied #1 WR who consistently overpowers and outjumps DBs (think Dez Bryant or Brandon
Marshall)
- Fast, change of pace 3rd down back who can beat OLB’s and SS’s in man coverage or take a
screen pass to the house (think Jahvid Best, Dexter McCluster, or Noel Devine)
- Speedy deep threat WR who can beat defenses deep or after the catch (Jacoby Ford or Dexter
McCluster)
The reality is that the Niners could legitimately address all of these needs in the 2010
offseason and I think they would be a far better team for it.
- - Dez Bryant, trade for Marshall, or trade down
- - Trade down or take best OT on the board
2nd round – Dexter McCluster or Jahvid Best
3rd round – Jacoby Ford or best player available
Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....
patrick willis
believes the offense will put more points on the board because Alex and the offense won’t have to learn another system, that seems like the biggest leader on the team supports the offense under Raye, that gave me some confidence even though i already think they will be better next year.
Uh, basic question here: is he an accurate QB or not?
I can’t say I want to see him around or not next year until I form an opinion on whether he can at some point turn into an accurate passer, which is obviously crucial. But after five years of seeing Smith (albeit, sporadically, since I live in NYC where most games aren’t televised), I can’t tell if he’s a fundamentally accurate passer who has just been perpetually off the mark because he’s usually rushed due to lousy O-line play, or if he is just a guy who can’t hit the broad side of a barn in the best of circumstances. Even this year in his “good” games, his passes seemed to sail on him, even when pressure seemed minimal. I’d like to hear opinions from people who watch him every week on whether or not he is ever going to reliably hit guys in stride. What kind of throws CAN this guy make?
Well, he ended the year tied for 17th in comp. %, so I’d say he has at least average accuracy.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
does the completion percentage determine accuracy?
In Smith’s case I don’t think so. Dump downs and completions short of first downs seem to be the highlight of his passes. He goes downfield and misses quite often and he misses on outside dep routes. I don’t think he is very accurate, it’s not often that our WR’s can run after the catch. I think his accuracy is questionable.
#42
sadly
as much as I am a smith supporter, I agree with this. Hopefully the more he plays in the same system and the more time he has to work with his receivers, and the more time the LOLine gives him, the better he’ll be at putting passes right on target.
A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.
To some degree I agree with this
Notably, there have been two plays in the last two games where Crabbs has completely beaten the defense and Alex has thrown it behind him. Those two plays should have been TDs, instead they’re long pass plays on which Crabbs has to make a tough catch.
However, we have to remember that these are players that don’t have a training camp together and haven’t built up that much of a rapport. I’d be supportive of drafting a QB in the 2nd round or later, but we should at least let Smith show what he can do with a full off season without having to work in a new system. If he still can’t throw the deep/intermediate balls, so be it. Let him fine tune the offense instead of learning the basics… again. Besides, assuming an improved OL Gore should be even more of a factor. This should open up the defense a bit too.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jan 7, 2010 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
Quote from Smith in the Chronicle...
Has be encouraged… link here
-With the annual change at offensive coordinator, Alex Smith said he never got the chance to work on his fundamentals. He said he’ll devote a good portion of the off-season on his footwork and his fundamentals within the pocket. He also looks upon this offseason as an opportunity to expand the offense to possibly incorporate some of the things he does best, including working outside the pocket.
all this talk of developing young QBs
i wish that was a more realistic opportunity. Sometimes I wish the NFL had a minor league system so you could have like 3 farm teams and you could put your developing players on them to actually PLAY football instead of just languishing on the practice squad. There’s no real way to develop a young QB other than through camp and practice and some preseason work. It would be great if Nate Davis could be playing triple-A football for a few years.
A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.
Farm system
the risk you run with having a farm system is shelf life. In baseball the “shelf life” of a player far exceeds the “shelf life” of a proffesional football player.
With all the requirements of having to be a Junior in college before entering the draft, that puts a player at 21-22 years old (in some cases older). In baseball, a guy can enter the minor league system when he is 18 and if he makes it, depending on position, can play until he is 40+ years old. That’s a 20+ year career. Football, the averages are much lower than baseball. That’s why I cannot ever see there being a quote-unquote farm system for football.
It’s not a bad idea, it’s just the logistics of getting it to work that is the largest obstacle.
Tim Tebow = 1,432,219 season tickets next year. Who wouldn't pick him in the 1st round with those projections?
oh sure
I wasn’t proposing that it should happen, or that it would be realistic or feasible – as you perfectly articulated. But sometime, for some purposes, I think it would be cool.
A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.
That's what NFL Europe was.
I think that’s also what the UFL is trying to be as well, though if they want to be successful they need to schedule their season to run with the offseason of the NFL.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Smith looks good on the "Raye Gun" offense
We gave Smith too much money just to let him go. Now that we finally have an offensive set for him, we should give him the chance he has been waiting for this past five years. It has to be difficult if you have 5 different bosses each year, wanting to do different things. No BLUNDER this team has its difficulties. No joke though, releasing Smith would be just a mistake for the Niners. We should keep running the “Raye Gun” offense with more of a ‘hurry-up’ mode. We keep defenses on their toes and push them back! It’s no wonder the Buffalo Bills (Jim Kelly) was so successful with this offensive action that torpedoed them to the Superbowl.
To avoid starting over at QB, I want to see him succeed because he is in place.
A new QB would set us back AGAIN, I am a fan of the 49ers why are you here?
#42
As we head into the 2018 Football Season
The Question is : Will this be Alex Smith Year ?
Realistically, we probably won't have a slam dunk decision next year
I mean, let’s say Smith puts up a line like:
63% completion. 3%int. 6.8YPA QB rating 85.
Making him about a perfectly league-average quarterback, but one who’s still improving, and just put up career best numbers. This team, with this defense, can make the playoffs with that if it gets the running game sorted out, and do some damage in the playoffs with a couple of lucky breaks.
But that line won’t – and probably shouldn’t – quiet the doubters, while at the same time being a very hard line to expect a young QB to come in and improve on. People will be calling for Nate, especially if Smith ever throws a game-killing INT … but if we’re in a playoff hunt, Nate’s probably going to hurt us in the short term.
Obviously, if Smith has a season much better than that, he’s locked down the job. And if he’s any worse than that, then he goes into the next camp with an open competition. But realistically? It’s not hard to see him improving, but maybe not enough …
And what do we do then?
tracking progress
People will be calling for Nate, especially if Smith ever throws a game-killing INT
Recognition of this kind of fan psychology is the first step to changing it or at least to minimizing its effects. There are certainly times (like in the Houston game) when a game-killing INT is maybe the QB’s fault, but when that INT is actually the least of the team’s worries in the grand scheme of things. I’m not saying that Smith should be the guy, but given the direction Singletary wants to take the team, a line like that from Smith would install him as the permanent starter until an injury or something out of the ordinary from Nate Davis (a Young in for Montana) cropped up.
Jason Hill is turning the corner!
do some damage in the playoffs with a couple of lucky breaks.
That sounds like every SB winner ever… but I digress.
The real question is “How do we define enough?”
Is it enough if the team performs well and Alex isn’t actively holding them back, or does he have to excel and lead the team to a few victories they otherwise wouldn’t have won based on his sheer awesomeness? The way I see it, we’ve got a great defense, and a great running back. Two ingredients for a team that doesn’t need a QB to be great. The way this team is built (Defense and solid running game), a league average QB should be just fine.
We’re not that far away from competing. With 2 1st rounders and a lot of cap space, we have a lot of things we can do. To me, sure, if one of the top prospects falls and becomes a value pick, go for it. Otherwise, best available in the draft while targeting a QB in later rounds.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Jan 7, 2010 11:39 AM PST up reply actions
If we can run the ball and minimize TO's and let Smith get comfortable in the pocket we can win consistently.
I still think our defense should be upgraded more as well
#42
Has Smith already reached his potential?
Does anyone honestly believe that Smith can become as good as Brees or even Young was?
Ok then, stop using those examples to compare this waiting/growing period that he is supposedly in…
Smith quite simply doesn’t make quick enough decisions and is not very accurate. He is going to get someone’s head taken off with all the high and long balls he throws that are close but not quite accurate enough…it will only be a matter of time before Crabs starts bitchin about it…
No
But I think he could be Eli Manning. Good enough to hold a starting QB position and with the right team while getting hot at the right time he can produce a possible championship or championship run. Not the ideal situation but something to work with and just a slight bit of hope.
The point of the comparisons to Brees is that up until his fourth season, Brees didn't look like he'd be that good ...
… and if you asked someone to evaluate him, they would have listed a bunch of the same concerns you have about Smith.
That doesn’t mean Smith will be as good as Brees. Obviously, that’s unlikely. Brees is one of the best in the game. I primary reason I bring up Brees is simple:
Humility.
We should all be humble about evaluating what a QB can do, because their performance is incredibly dependent on context.
Here’s another example, going in the opposite way, which should help make this point.
A QB with several years experience, in his second year starting, second year in a row running basically the same offense, puts up the following line:
55% Comp, 3.2% int, 5.9 YPA, 69.9 rating.
The guy must suck, right? I mean, those are bad numbers. Not acceptable numbers, right? In his second year starting the guy should be improving.
But the year before he put up this line:
63.4% comp. 2.1% int. 7.2YPA, 89.4 rating.
This isn’t a case of injury being the main issue. It isn’t a case of the guy learning (remember, the bad year happened second).
No … this is what happens when you take a QB who has a good offensive line and great receivers and put him on a team with a horrible offensive line and bad receivers. I’m talking, of course, about Matt Cassel.
On a very good team, in his first major experience, he was a good QB. On a very bad team, he was a terrible one.
Smith DOES need to improve his accuracy. Absolutely, I agree 100%. The question is, how much can be improve his accuracy with an offseason spent working on his mechanics, and with an improved offensive line.
The answer can’t be “none.” The question is only, is the answer, “enough?”
And the examples of Brees and Cassel suggest that we should hesitate before jumping to conclusions.
I think a lot of QB's can be successful with Randy Moss on his team
He aids QB’s almost as much as an O-Line
Tribute to #44........The Elmira Express
But it's not just Moss.
It’s Moss, who that season was the best deep threat in the game. It was Welker, who was the best possession receiver in the game. It was one of the best o-lines in the game. It was a running game that was #7 in the league in yards/att.
And that’s the point. Context matters.
For most of his career, Smith has played on teams that had a lot more in common with Cassel’s KC teams than with Cassel’s NE team. If we solve the o-line problem, next year may be the first year where that’s not the case … and it’ll be interesting to see who Smith is then.
Welker is not the best possession WR in the game, that is ridiculous.
Without Moss, welker would not be getting any where near those stats. He doesn’t face a teams best corner and perform. He gets covered by LB’s and 2nd and 3rd CB’s, best possession WR in the game, huh? Laughable. Too much credit being given to him.
Cassell was on any other team with the same time in the system and would have never had those numbers. Brady never had 30 td’s until Moss got there.
Tribute to #44........The Elmira Express
My point wasn't to argue how good Cassel is or isn't.
My point is that you’re seeing an incredible variation based on the surrounding talent. And that variation percolates well beyond that stats. Cassel wouldn’t fit anybody’s definition of an “accurate passer” in KC, but he did in NE.
I think you’re underselling Welker, who had 40 more catches than Moss this year, despite playing in two fewer games. And he had more yards, too. And that’s no fluke – the difference was there last year, too. Obviously, Moss’s home-run creates an ideal opportunity for Welker, but Welker had has over 110 catches two years in a row – that’s not trivial.
Brady’s TDs have as much to do with a change in offensive philosophy as they do with better talent. Yes, they changed their philosophy to reflect their talent level, but it’s not like they just plugged Moss into the same offense and watched the numbers soar.
They ran that offense before Moss was there, the passing just got heavier.
And, the 110 catches two years in a row is gonna be easier to accomplish with Randy on the field. Best possession WR in the game is what you called him, Johnson and Fitzgerald would be insulted and should because that is BS. Cassell’s accuracy is not in question, he is in his first year with a horrible team and any QB would suck their, ANY.
Tribute to #44........The Elmira Express
I think the question is can we win a superbowl with Smith
I don’t care if he is as good as Young or Brees, can we win a bowl with him? Frankly his downfield accuracy was always a question and if it isn’t fixed then I think we will be parting ways with him. Who needs to worry about a downfield pass that has a low percentage of completion.
Tribute to #44........The Elmira Express
Smith is already better than DIlfer was when he won a SB.
It’s not like these are binary questions. The better your defense and running game are, the less skill you need from your QB to win a Super Bowl.
Dan Marino was clearly a QB who had the skills to win a super bowl, but was never on a good enough team.
I agree, however a QB has to ba able to make all the throws, when and if the running game is stopped.
There are some teams in the league that can stop your run and make you pass. Teams will still play us 8 in the box because of his lack of accuracy.
Tribute to #44........The Elmira Express
9erz 4 life
Me personally I voted for Aaron Rodgers in the 05 draft. I though he would be perfect. However we got pretty boy Smith. I said "OK, Undefeated in his senior year ay Utah, good arm, good accueacy, let’s see what the kid got.
At 21 years old he came in about midway through the season with a horrible team. Just coming of a Dennis Erickson campaign, and a rookie Head Coach Mike Nolan 2-14 run I felt sorry for the kid. His best recievers we’re Arnaz Battle, a converted QB, and ? That’s about it. Our team was equivalent to today’s Rams.
His 2nd year we drafted him some help in TE Vernon Davis, and got a mastermind OC in Norv Turner. by the way who was the OC in 05? Who knows? A total bum. Under Norv Smith looked excellent for a 22 year old with only a few starts. F.Gore had a franchise year, and we still managed to have a losing season. but in 07, the sky was the limit.
Guess what? Norv Turner back doored us to go south and coach the Chargers, We looked for some Coordinator’s and came up with a bum off the streets. He definitely had no idea what to do in the NFL. Our entire team suffered that year including Smith who was injured thanks to our lack luster O-line.
The 08 season Smith may finally have his chance. There’s a three way battle between Smith,Hill, and some mega bum named J.T. O’Sullivan who our 4th coordinator since drafting Smith (Mike Martz) brought with him from Detroit. I guess Nolan put a lot of faith in Martz. It cost him his job.
So now our head coach is gone, and yet a 5th consecutive OC comes in by the name of Jimmy Raye. However our new Head coach M.Singletary shows promise. Hill was the interum starting QB since he had success at the end of the 08 season with Singletary. This just prolong’s Smith’s progress for 6 more games. Finally since the 06 season he’s back in effect. He makes an immediate impact. He makes some mistakes, but also show signs of maturity. Finishing the season 5-5 as a starter 2000+ yards passing 18td-12ints passer rating 81.% and looking good. He deserves a shot at the title absolutely. He showed a lot of guts playing injured under M.Nolan, coming back from that fall out, taking a paycut to finish with us, the San Fransisco 49ers. We owe him a shot. The team is now geared for him to succeed. He now has playmakers such as Crabz, V.Davis, Gore, Mogan, please don’t forget Delaine Walker. Walker, and Davis= Poison in the BIG formation=2TEs RB 2WRs. Don’t count out J.Hill. Hill is a playmaker, he’ll prove that once he’s out of the Dog House. Don’t forget our FA aquisition in B.Jones.
Now we have 2 first round picks, surplus money in the salary cap and the same system intact. I smell a Super Bowl! Staley, Nate Clements, and T.Pashos was out during A.Smith’s run. Not to mention the rug being pulled from under us when RT Marvel Smith retired before setting foot on the field. We did make an attempt at suring up the RT position early. We will in 2010…We should go after O-linemen in FA, and draft FS Taylor Mays, and a solid O-lineman in the Draft….Peace…Stelf Bombz
Dilfer/Brees/Cassell/SuperBowls/and Ronnie!
Saying Dilfer “won” a superbowl is like saying Steve Young “won” two…sure he has the ring, but…seriously!?!?
Could Alex have won the SB were the QB on that team? Maybe, who knows, but I do know this: one of the all time great defenses in NFL HISTORY sure helps. SF aint there.
Can he win a SB? sure. Dilfer got one. Young won two! Prob not with this team though. Sorry.
Brees and Cassell? Looking at stats is great, but did anyone really watch them back then? Was anyone fooled into thinking Cassell was actually a good QB (besides Haley and KC)? Sure, he might still pan out with better talent around him, a la NE. Judgment reserved.
As for Brees, I remember thinking he was pretty good. his 3rd and 4th years you could really tell he was going to be good..maybe not by looking at stats, but just by one of those instinctive gut feelings…
Still waiting for that feeling with Smith, btw. And I do think Cassell is a better QB than smith too, but I hope I am wrong, I sincerely hope all he needs is one more year! One year of consistency in coaching and playbook. If thats all that is missing then I agree with the love-blind; Smith can lead this team to a SB (with a draft of OL, RB and the rest defense)
And Ronnie! (not #42) good game with becks this weekend, except for the missed penalty. Too bad can’t repeart Barca form anymore…;( Mes Que un Club!
so are you saying...
JAKE LOCKER IS OUR FUTURE
??
"Vernon is going to be a great tight end one day, but he's got to put the whole package together." - Thanks Sing for echoing this.
the kid coming in behind him aint bad either
"Vernon is going to be a great tight end one day, but he's got to put the whole package together." - Thanks Sing for echoing this.
besides
one of the biggest mysteries this off-season is what the Niners will do with the QB position. They are open to adding another one to the off-season roster, but who emerges from Training Camp as the #2 and #3 guys is up in the air because we don’t know if Hill or someone else will be here competing for those spots
"Vernon is going to be a great tight end one day, but he's got to put the whole package together." - Thanks Sing for echoing this.
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