Playoff Prediction Games: Round 1

Fooch's Note: Make sure and get your predictions in for the free-for-all.  Everybody is eligible to take part.

And so begins the second season.  Late last week howtheyscored put together a primer on how the prediction game will operate now that we've reached the NFL postseason.  For those that missed it, there are two games, the free-for-all and the playoff tournament.  The playoff tournament is reserved for the top 12 scorers in our regular season contest.  Each week you survive you'll need to provide a net yardage tiebreaker total.  The free-for-all is open to everybody, including those that are in the playoff tournament.  There will be a tiebreker the final week for this, but not for the weeks leading up to it.

For those that are in the tournament, you can either email me your predictions privately (ninersnation@gmail.com), or you can post them here publicly.  Obviously if you post them publicly, your opponent has the opportunity to view your picks before making his own picks.  If you email me your picks, please include your username so I know who's who.  The bracket is after the jump along with the usual rules.

The scoring is altered (I believe it's a 5-point scale, but that info is in the link above), but otherwise predicting the games is the same as always.  Remember that the first two games are Saturday though, so get your picks in sooner rather than later.  As always, all times are pacific.

NY Jets @ Cincinnati - Sat., Jan. 9, 1:30 p.m. PST

Philadelphia @ Dallas - Sat., Jan. 9,  5:00 p.m. PST (PLAYOFF NET YARDAGE TIEBREAKER)

Baltimore @ New England - Sun., Jan. 10, 10:00 a.m. PST

Green Bay @ Arizona - Sun., Jan. 10, 1:40 p.m. PST

Remember, for those in the 12 person playoff, Philly @ Dallas is the tiebreaker game.  Please provide the total net yards when submitting your picks to me via email (or here if you post it publicly).

Here's the playoff bracket:

IMPORTANT NEW RULE

Up until now, folks have just posted their scores in any particular fashion, although howtheyscored has made requests for a specific format.  Given the amount of time and effort howtheyscored has to put into determining the final results, I am implementing a requirement for how to format your scores (based on the spreadsheet howtheyscored has created).  If you fail to follow this format, any incorrectly formatted scores for the week will be disqualified.  The format is "Team A @ Team B: A score - B score."  That basically is visitor @ home: visitor score - home score."  Here's an example of how to do it:

Using Philadelphia @ Dallas below, if you think Dallas will win 24-14, here's how it HAS to look:

Philadelphia @ Dallas: 14 - 24

If you think Philadelphia will win 24-14, it needs to appear as this:

Philadelphia @ Dallas: 24 - 14

If you'd like you can bold the winner (Philadelphia @ Dallas: 14 - 24), but that is not required (although probably a good backup in case you reversed the score by accident.

If you make a mistake in the formatting I'll reply to your score reminding you to correct it.  To correct it, simply reply to your picks and post them in the correct format.  Do not post your scores again at the bottom of the thread.  I'll make sure and include these directions each week so people do not forgot and lose out on points.  As I mentioned above, we're doing this to make howtheyscored's life easier in figuring out the scores.  The # of regular commenters has increased dramatically since last season, so we're anticipating a greater # of prediction contest participants.  While this is a new rule, I don't think it's all that difficult for folks to follow it.

SCORING RULES

Every score is made up of two parts: Point total and point differential. First we see how close your prediction’s point total is to the actual score’s point total. The closer you are to zero, the better. Then, we see how close your prediction’s point differential is to the actual point differential. Again, closer to zero is better. Then, we add those two numbers together. That number gives you a raw score for your prediction.Then, we rank each game by raw scores. The players with the five lowest raw scores get points. The lowest get five points. Next lowest get four. And so on.

As an example of the scoring system, in week 7, the Vikings lost to the Steelers by a score of 17 - 27. The actual score had a point differential of 10 (27-17=10) and a point total of 44 (27+17=44).

For that game, let's look at three predictions: 1) 17 - 23, Pitt; 2) 23 - 27, Pitt; and 3) 17 - 27, Pitt.

Remember, nobody who predicted the Vikings to win the game was eligible for points.

The first prediction had a point differential of 6 (23-17=6). This was 4 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 40 (23+17=40). This was 4 away from the actual point total. All in all, that gives the prediction a raw score of 8.

The second prediction had a point differential of 4 (27-23=4), which was 6 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 50 (27+23=50), which was 6 away from the actual point total. That gives the prediction a raw score of 12.

The third prediction had a point differential of 10 (27-17=10), which was 0 away from the actual point differential. It had a total score of 44 (27+17=44), which was 0 away from the actual point total. That gives the prediction a raw score of 0.

Since the lower your raw score is, the better your prediction, the third prediction is ranked as the best and gets the most points (and since it was a perfect prediction, there is no arguing that it was the best). The first prediction had the next lowest raw score, so it ranks as the second best prediction of the group, netting the next most points. The second prediction, therefore, came in third.

If anybody has any questions at all about this, or anything else, feel free to email me at ninersnation@gmail.com.