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The 49ers in 2009 by the numbers: Offense

Now that the season is over, while many want to look straight to the future, we obviously need to assess what has passed since that will obviously affect the decisions of the offseason.  While we'll begin looking at positional reviews in the coming days, I thought we'd start out with a broader look at the 49ers this season through the stats.  Since everybody has a different view of different stats, we'll include both traditional counting stats and DVOA.  Florida Danny is working on his season recap of DVOA but we'll provide some basics here.  For those who don't know, the DVOA percentages are the percentage better or worse than a completely average team.  NFL rank is included in parenthesis.

Offense
Total YPG
: 290.8 ypg (27th)
Passing YPG: 190.8 ypg (22nd)
Rushing YPG: 100.0 (25th)
Points Per Game: 21.2 (22nd)

Total Offensive DVOA: -10.6% (23rd)
Passing DVOA: -9.2% (22nd)
Rushing DVOA: 1.3% (14th)

Even though the team switched to the shotgun and throwing the ball more, the final numbers certainly weren't pretty in the passing game.  That's obviously not shocking, or new to anybody, but it's still worth considering one more time.  One problem with these stats as they are is that they are season long numbers and don't speak to the change from Shaun Hill to Alex Smith (combined with the addition of Michael Crabtree).  At Football Outsiders they provide some quick info in their premium section that I can call upon fairly quickly.  For the traditional stats I'd have to go back through each box score and manually add it up, which I might do at a later date.

FO has a chart breaking down passing offense DVOA by weeks 1-9 and weeks 10-17.  Smith took over Week 7 during the Houston game, so it's not perfect, but it gives a starting point.  For weeks 1-9, the 49ers passing DVOA was -8.3% and ranked 23rd.  For weeks 10-17, the 49ers passing DVOA was -9.2% (so slightly worse) and ranked 22nd.  One thing to keep in mind is that the weeks 1-9 includes the one half Alex Smith lit up the Texans for one of his best (if not the best) performances of his career.

After the jump we look at a host of other stats

Star-divide

Penalties
Total: 98 (t-19th)
Total Yards: 758 (14th)

So penalties is more just an overall statistic since it includes offensive and defensive penalties.  However, as this shows, the 49ers weren't exactly a well-oiled machine.  I'm curious how a team improves in this area?  One would think they have the right coach to clean this up.  Here's a rather crazy little stat.  Including this past season, the last three years have seen the 49ers finish with 98 penalties in 2009, 98 in 2008, 97 in 2007 and 93 in 2006.  The league leader in fewest penalties this season was Jacksonville with 70.  Any ideas on how the 49ers can bring down the penalty number?

Pass Protection
Sacks: 40 (22nd)
Sack Yards Lost: 241 yards (18th)

Considering the 49ers gave up 50 sacks last season, this is certainly an improvement...or is it?  The 49ers ran a Mike Martz offense that opened up J.T. O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill to a fair number of sacks.  Although, JTO was sacked 32 times in 7.5 games and Hill was sacked 23 times in 8.5 games (and 68 more pass attempts).  I mention all this so that we can try and get a better idea of the 49ers "improved" sack total.  Clearly the offensive line had numerous struggles.  How do folks think the o-line compared to last year since the 2008 sack numbers might be skewed a bit due to the Martz offense?

Turnovers
Total Giveaways: 24 (14th)
Interceptions: 14 (t-12th)
Fumbles: 10 (t-12th)

The 49ers weren't exactly awful in giving the ball away, but it always felt like their turnovers came at the worst possible times.  Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if fans of most other teams said the same thing.  For the 49ers you're talking about something like the Frank Gore fumble against Seattle, or the Delanie Walker fumble against the Eagles, both of which happened deep in the opponent's territory.  Of course, in 2008 the team gave the ball away an NFL-leading 35 times.  So they improved, but as we discussed above in sacks, did the Martz offense skew the numbers last season?  It's hard to tell.  In 2008 the 49ers had 19 interceptions and 16 fumbles.  In 2009 they had 14 interceptions and 10 fumbles.  It's only a 5 interception difference so take that for what you will.

Third down conversions: 29.8% (29th)

I don't have the info in front of me, but it always seemed like the 49ers ended up with 3rd and long most of the time.  No matter what combination led up to it (run/run, run/pass, pass/run, pass/pass) it seemed like the 49ers were consistently putting themselves in a position to fail.  Nowhere was this as big an issue as the second Seahawks game.  The 49ers badly needed a win and killed their chances by going 1-for-13.  There are numerous areas to point to for the 49ers offensive struggles, but this is definitely one that jumps out at you.  Let's take a look at this from another angle....

Third down DVOA
Third and short (1-3 yards to go): 48.0% (3rd)
Third and mid (4-6 yards to go): -9.7% (19th)
Third and long (7+ yards to go): -43.5% (26th)
Combined third down DVOA: 5.9% (16th)

So the 49ers were extremely successful on third and short, about 10% below average on third and mid, and fairly awful on third and long.  But, if you are willing to go a little further with DVOA, we can actually pinpoint the problem when we look at first and second down DVOA:

First down DVOA
Total first down DVOA: -9.5% (24th)

Second down DVOA
Second and short (1-3 yards to go): -18.0% (28th)
Second and mid (4-6 yards to go): -1.6% (18th)
Second and long (7+ yards to go): -34.6% (31st)
Combined second down DVOA: -23.9% (32nd)

That might be the best answer you're going to get.  And it's not exactly a shocking bit of information.  The team actually performed better on third down generally than it did the rest of the time.  But when you're put in such a huge position to fail following second down, it's not a surprise.

0 recs  |  Comment 10 comments |

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how many of the penalties

were VD false starts?

I can’t believe we only had 5 fewer INTs this year, when last year we played have the season with a QB names Just Turn Overs.

Total Offensive DVOA -10.6% – this is why Raye got a NO vote

thank you thank you I’ll be here all week

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Jan 7, 2010 9:21 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

penalties

I believe Vernon finished with 12 penalties. Not sure of the breakdown of them. I got that number from two sources: Mike Sando had a penalty watch after week 16, and then I checked the play-by-play for the 49ers week 17 game.

by Fooch on Jan 7, 2010 10:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe the other bulk of penalties came from the punt/kickoff return teams. Outside VD and not getting snap off in time, I didn’t notice too many other penalties on the offense or defense this season.

by bignerd on Jan 7, 2010 2:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It doesn't matter anyway

VD is changing sports. He’s going into curling.

by Mangoman on Jan 7, 2010 3:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We had lots of false starts and Delay of Games. Those should be reduced with more… continuity!
I think the turnovers felt “worse” because most of the time the Niners’ games were close (probably a function of having a good defense and terrible offense).

It’s very interesting that the Passing offense was about the same or a little worse under Smith than Hill by DVOA, since Smith’s QB DVOA was much better than Hill’s. So the Receivers/OL must have been worse.

Wasn’t the rushing DVOA much better weeks 9-17 than early?

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Jan 7, 2010 12:48 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Improvement needed everywhere

I think the guys on the offense need to buy everyone on the D a Rolex, and then with the coaching staff immediately start figuring out what to do to get to the top half of the league next season. Ironically, I think the turnover DVOA being in the top half is what kept them in most games. But it doesn’t help when you have an offense that can’t sustain drives. I think with improved playcalling, execution and sense of urgency, the 1st & 2nd down DVOA will improve and the 3rd down & conversion DVOA will follow.

by Mangoman on Jan 7, 2010 12:59 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

We were in every game this season except one .A little improvment here and there (QB and O line etc) and we will easily win several more games that we shoulda,coulda,woulda,won this season (where we lost by under 7 points in almost every game we lost).

Another good draft and a free agent or two and we should be very near completing the puzzle of putting together a consistently competitve Championship caliber team.
(especially if Nate Davis gets ready quickly !)

by TIM___ on Jan 7, 2010 2:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A couple of videos of Nate Davis.
First the video of every pass he threw in preseason,which clearly shows he has all the talent in the World and clearly the most talent of any QB on the roster,by far.
Next a very short interview of Davis that will help you get to know the Niner’s QB of the future!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkRIYba7hdg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7r2zkEKV2M&NR=1

by TIM___ on Jan 7, 2010 2:41 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but

I really feel like it’s going to take something drastic to get Nate in there as the starter before 2011. If Alex just chokes and at the very least within the first three games, then it’s a moderate to good possibility that we’ll see him in there. Sing did say Alex is the QB going into next season, but I know that he also invites competition, so anything is possible.

by Mangoman on Jan 7, 2010 2:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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