Finding Answers In Strength of Schedule

by LA49er on Oct 13, 2010 4:31 PM PDT

Phillip J. Forty-Niner has been in a coma for six weeks. While we can't be sure of the specifics, doctors speculate his body simply couldn't handle a wave of preseason excitement, as he collapsed while wearing his Patrick Willis jersey in front of his computer, whose browser was pointed to Niners Nation (a football blog).

Phil woke up this morning, only to find his beloved San Francisco 49ers have gone 0-5. Michael Robinson, Jimmy Raye, Glen Coffee and Michael Lewis are no longer with the team, and things are looking bleaker than ever. Poor Phil's health is deteriorating rapidly, and doctors feel he doesn't stand much chance of a full recovery without even a glimmer of hope for the rest of the season- what's a poor 49er fan to do?

Come with me as I use three words to save a life, shed some light into why the season isn't lost, the sky isn't falling, and why we'll be celebrating with Phil all the way through the first round of the playoffs: Strength Of Schedule.

2hpiq8p_medium

Above you'll notice a little chart I cooked up, which paints a (very early) big picture of our opponents, each of whom, we have lost to. You'll notice the following glimmers of hope:

Including the wins against the Niners, every team we have lost to sits at either .500 or above- winning records.
Excluding the wins against the Niners, two teams have winning records, two are 2-2, and only one (the lowly Seahawks) is 1-2; hardly something to be ashamed of.
Against the best team we've played all season, we lost by only two points, after leading the entire game.
All of our opponents are either Division leaders, Tied for Division leader, 2nd in the division, or are the defending Super Bowl Champions (3rd in division).

Sure, they're not really bright hopes, but let's look at our NFC West competition, and throw in the other 1-4 and 0-5 teams for the fun of it (stay with us, Phil!):

2hpiq8p_medium

(Don't really know why this chart came out so much larger, but whatevs)

Some glimmers here:

The teams the Niners lost to have the best combined record of all the teams facing the dregs of the NFL. The team that played the next best collection of teams were the also-winless Carolina Panthers, whose teams lost one more game somewhere.
Bonus hope: The same Panthers lost all their games in a slightly less impressive opening third of their schedule by more points than we did, and the worst of all the teams represented.
The Niners have lost by the second worst point differential of all the losers above. The third worst? Our main competition this season, the Arizona Cardinals, who have the best record of all the teams represented (and the only winning record).
Our stats just don't look as bad compared to our division. Go ahead, compare them (for Phil's sake!).
Take away the two blowouts suffered at the hands of the Chiefs and the Seahawks, both of which were headed up by Jimmy Raye, without Taylor Mays or Ted Ginn, and we've lost by the second lowest margin of all the teams represented above, while still scoring the second most points.

Now, these stats make the upcoming game against the terribly mediocre Raiders that much more important. I would argue that the Panther game is even more important still, as we have no idea how good they can be- they've had one of the hardest opening schedules, and have very similar point differentials to the 49ers.

Because I care about certain ~~imaginary~~ lovingly created characters in poor health, I won't go into all the glaring worrisome stats above, but I invite you to do so in the comments below.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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Interesting.

by mikeinsp on Oct 13, 2010 4:45 PM PDT reply actions

It helps your opponents' records when you lose to all of them

Your chart is missing that critical data, and when you account for it, opponent records even out significantly (hint: Most are within a game of 0.500).

When you ignore the Rams’ turn against the Lions (-38), their point differential looks pretty darn good too. The real silver lining is that though we’ve played a toughish schedule so far, our remaining schedule is much, much easier.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Oct 13, 2010 5:36 PM PDT reply actions

Point Mostly Taken

You make a good point, but technically the data is under the “Without SF” heading in the first chart. The combined W-L drops to 10-8, but it’s still a winning record.

I should have included the same data for our upcoming schedule, and while I haven’t studied it, I’d be surprised if more than three teams in the next 11 have winning records when we play them. Assuming we only lose to teams with winning records (which is in no way a guarantee), we’re still looking at 8-8 and the division pennant.

49er 'til I die! (if they don't kill me first)

by LA49er on Oct 13, 2010 9:25 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

You need to analyze that data for the other teams too...

When I did my mental math, they all came out about the same… so, like I said, everybody’s opponents are very close to 0.500 on average.

Trust me, learning english isn’t a waste of time. It is actually sort of useful.

-randolphforpresident

by Dubs fan in Boston on Oct 14, 2010 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Turnovers and not schedule remain the biggest problem

Of course a QB who consistently turns the ball over each game is a big reason for this.

by bignerd on Oct 13, 2010 10:22 PM PDT reply actions

Finding Answers in the Strength of Schedule?

In my personal line of work, we’re often taught to think in more simpler terms when operating under crisis mode. And? The 49ers are in crisis mode. It doesn’t matter how “easy” the rest of the schedule looks. And all the numbers and stats that anyone can dig up doesn’t matter at all. When you have an incompetent quarterback who lacks resolve and has a passive personality that plays out even on Sundays…. when you have a defense that has failed on so many levels to even come close to resembling last year’s defense…. it doesn’t matter how “easy” the rest of the schedule looks. The 49ers will not be able to win the division (assuming you’re one to believe in York’s statement), unless they fix two BIG issues: 1) the starting qb position, and 2) the defense. (As for the latter, I can’t understand why Manusky has been able to remain out of the hotseat. You would think that after this awful 0-5 start, Manusky would be getting some of the heat that Singletary and Smith has been getting.)

(for original poster) Putting my above comment aside, I was quite disappointed to learn that you didn’t actually go into details regarding the last 11 games of the season. I thought that you were going to give a breakdown of the games and give some sort of prediction on each, and then arrive to some conclusion about the 49ers chances in making the playoffs. Or am I just not understanding the title of your post and completely off-base here?

Whatever the case, good day to you. The 49ers suck, but thank goodness for the Giants.

by Waiting4JoshMorgan on Oct 14, 2010 12:53 AM PDT reply actions

No you're right

I should have at least provided that data for contrast, since the next 11 could conceivably be even tougher than the first 5, and then this post is completely meaningless.

I didn’t for two reasons:
1. I’m not really a stats guy, and I couldn’t come up with a good way to present it. Florida Danny, for example, could make a much better case either way. Plus, the data would have to be based on the first 5 games, which might work for the Raiders and Panthers, but could mean a lot less the further into the season we go.
2. These charts are ridiculously difficult to place in a post (for being 2 minute excel no-brainers), and I wanted to have this up while it was still relevant.

The point of the post was to try to alleviate some of the panic. I really just wanted to see if my hypothesis that our schedule was much more difficult than we had expected in the off-season was true, and when I found the data backed up that claim, I decided to write the post instead of sticking it in the comments somewhere.

49er 'til I die! (if they don't kill me first)

by LA49er on Oct 14, 2010 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions