2010 NFL Gambling Odds, Week 6: Oh How the "Mighty" will Fall (or Fail).

Just when it looked like I was making progress, Week 5 came into town and sent me packing. A pretty standard week in terms of teams winning or losing, nothing too embarassing aside from an Aaron Rodgers overtime interception that flunked Danny's betcard. Wait, Danny didn't actually have any money tied up in a game that ended with a missed field goal, or OT disappointment (it was Fooch's week for that). I was dumb enough to think I could win a parlay bet, and watched Carson Palmer throw two 4th quarter INTs, which calmed my reaction to the 49ers hilarious flop on Sunday Night. Here's a look at the current totals heading into Week 6:

 

W

L(P)

T$BET

ROLL

GAIN

Fooch

6

22(1)

 $  1,235.00

 $     521.12

-$    478.88

Danny

3

11

 $     460.91

 $     792.20

-$    207.80

Andrew

11

12

 $     488.20

 $     978.25

-$      21.75

After the jump, you'll want to tune in to check out Fooch's extremely long bet card (he just can't resist the parlays), as well as Danny's and my own. I can't make any promises about this week, but I fully expect to bounce back and get back into the green (or black, as long as its not red).

Fooch's Bet Card 

V

H

ATS

ML

PO

RISK

RTN

SEA

CHI-6.5

CHI-6.5

 

-105

 $    20.00

 $        19.05

NO-4.5

TB

 

TB

175

 $    20.00

 $        35.00

ATL

PHI-3

 

ATL

125

 $    50.00

 $        62.50

DAL

MIN-1.5

MIN-1.5

 

-105

 $    30.00

 $        28.75

IND-3

WAS

IND-3

 

-120

 $    30.00

 $        25.00

OAK

SF-6.5

SF-6.5

 

-105

 $    50.00

 $        47.62

***

Parlay

***

 

 

 

 

OAK

SF-6.5

SF-6.5

 

 

 

 

IND-3

WAS

IND-3

 

 

 

 

DAL

MIN-1.5

MIN-1.5

 

 

 

 

SEA

CHI-6.5

CHI-6.5

 

1250

 $    20.00

 $     252.88

***

Parlay

***

 

 

 

 

BAL

NE-2.5

NE-2.5

 

 

 

 

DET

NYG-10

NYG-10

 

 

 

 

TEN-3

JAX

 

TEN

550

 $    20.00

 $     110.69

 

 

 

 

 

 $  220.00

 $     470.80

Fooch's Comments:

I suppose doubling up on some of these games isn't the wisest idea, but I went with the four with which I'm most comfortable. The 49ers HAVE to win on Sunday. Don't bet against Peyton Manning in prime time. I'll take the Vikings at home and I most definitely will not be taking the Seahawks on the road at any point in the near future. As for that Bucs M/L bet, well consider me on the Josh Freeman bandwagon after he helped me to a 5-0 start in one of my fantasy leagues while replacing Jay Cutler.

A couple sentences you can add at the end of my previous explanation: I'm amazed the Titans are only -140 for this game. I suppose it's a road game, but I'll take it, particularly over the -3 since they'd probably screw me with a game-winning field goal and either push or not cover. I could see the Patriots rallying around the flag for this one and I think the Giants handle a Lions squad that will struggle on the road.

 Andrew Davidson's Bet Card

V

H

ATS

ML

PO

RISK

RTN

CLE

PIT-14

CLE+14

 

-105

 $    15.00

 $        14.29

DAL

MIN-1.5

MIN-1.5

 

-105

 $    15.00

 $        14.29

DET

NYG-10

NYG-10

 

-105

 $    32.00

 $        30.48

ATL

PHI-3

 

ATL

125

 $    35.00

 $        43.75

 

 

 

 

 

 $    97.00

 $     102.81

Andrew's comments:

I'm a bit pressed for time this week, so I don't have a lot to say (sorry guys, no hooker jokes this week). To put it simply, Cleveland stands a pretty good chance to cover against Pittsburg despite the return of BBR. While both the Cowboys and Vikings are in tailspins, I'll like the home team in this one to cover (ML isn't available, but MIN's payout will be better ATS anyway). A banged up Detroit team already has enough problems winning on the road, and the New York pass rush is heavily favoured to "crush" it. Atlanta stands a good chance at ripping off a road upset, and is rolling right now.

Florida Danny's Bet Card

V

H

ATS

ML

PO

RISK

RTN

SEA

CHI-6.5

 

CHI

-290

 $    20.09

 $          6.93

MIA

GB-3

 

GB

-185

 $    21.07

 $        11.39

 

 

 

 

 

 $    41.16

 $        18.32

Danny's Comments:

No changes in betting strategy here. Still going with my same formula of home favorite + winning percentage advantage over opponent = 75% probability of winning. Although I’m down about $200, I feel like the strategy hasn’t been an abject failure because – let’s face it – I’ve had some unbelievably rotten luck. Of course, it’s worth speculating about the reasons – aside from my bad luck – for why these very-likely-to-win bets are losing. One thing I thought of was that, by limiting myself to favorites at a price better than -300, I’m perhaps not actually making bets that have a 75% probability of winning. In other words, it might be that, in the overall sample of games where a home favorite has a winning percentage advantage, most of the winners had a moneyline higher than -300. Well, I went back in my database to see if that was true. It turns out that – after doing the standard moneyline conversion for -300, which corresponds to a spread of -7.0 – home favorites with a winning percentage advantage and had a moneyline better than -300 were 198-97 from 2003-2008. That works out to a 67% win rate. So, I guess there’s some truth to my hypothesis. However, given that I’m not even winning these bets at a 67% rate, I still have to just chalk most of this up to bad luck.
 
With that said, one thing did change this week. Because the Bears’ moneyline is so close to -300, 10% of the Kelly criterion – which is what I use to calculate my bet amounts – was $2.01. On general principle, I’m not betting $2.01 of fake money. Therefore, I decided to just wing it at the full 100% of Kelly for my Bears bet, and so – voila! – I’m betting $20.09 instead. Of course, the odds are very good that Robbie Gould will shank a 30-yard FG in the waning seconds, so my wild and crazy maniac decision-making here will no-doubt come back to bite my bankroll in the behind.

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