2010 NFL Gambling Odds Week 5: Jeff Reed dislikes Florida Danny; Josh Scobee likes me.

Finally. Finally a week where I can hold my head up high and report to Niners Nation that I had a successful week of betting on the NFL. Thanks in large part to a 59-yard game winning FG from the leg of Josh Scobee, five of the six games I bet on were correct, putting me up an entire $3.25 on the season. Call up McDonalds, and let them know to have a double cheeseburger and zesty mango mac mini ready. Florida Danny once again suffered the wrath of terrible FG kicking as Pittsburgh's Jeff Reed missed two crucial field goals against Baltimore. As a result, the Ravens were able to put together a game winning drive with little time left for any miracles or game tying FG attempts (which would've went wide right anyway, right Danny?). Fooch felt the sting of two home dog upsets (Cleveland over Cincinatti, Jacksonville over Indy) while Detroit made it look all too easy covering the spread against Green Bay. On the season, Fooch's gut is feeling the effects of indigetion - may I suggest Pepto-Bismol Ice? Just a side note: The Detroit Lions are 4-0 against the spread this season, but the 0-4 ML record is funnier than any SNL skit. Here's a breakdown of the standings before I make an inappropriate joke:

 

 

W

L(P)

TBATS

TBML

TBPLY

ROLL

GAIN

Fooch

5

17(1)

 $  445.00

 $  130.00

 $    60.00

 $     726.12

-$    273.88

Danny

2

10

 $           -  

 $  344.30

 $       9.43

 $     811.97

-$    188.03

Andrew

9

10

 $  203.20

 $    80.00

 $       5.00

 $  1,003.25

 $         3.25



Our comment participants, the fan favorite Smileyman and the forty-niner faithul fortyniners suffered bad weeks themselves, making my self-pat on the back harder. On the year, smileyman is down a modest $21, or my weekly allowance of "gratuities" for the hard working women of 17th and Capp (you know, if I actually lived in San Francisco). Fortyniners is in a $242.50 hole, definitely not something you'll find on Larkin Street - use the Classified Pages instead to avoid any extra unneccesary features. Continue along after the jump to see our bet cards and Fooch's potential monster payout (Florida Danny will have his picks in at a later time)...

Andrew Davidson's Bet Card

V

H

ATS

ML

PO

RISK

RTN

STL

DET

 

STL

+135

 $    20.00

 $    27.00

JAX

BUF

JAX-1

 

-110

 $    20.00

 $    18.00

ATL

CLE

ATL-3

 

-115

 $    20.00

 $    17.00

***

Parlay

***

 

 

 

 

PHI

SF

-

SF

 

 

 

TB

CIN

-

CIN

 

 

 

KC

IND

-

IND

+173

 $    40.00

 $    69.39

 

 

 

 

 

 $  100.00

 $  131.39

My take on the games

JAX-1 @ BUF: When I made this bet, there were no odds for the Money Line, and I'm pretty certain the -110 I'm getting for Jacksonville is better than the odds for the Jaguars to win outright (which to cover, the team will have to do). Although Buffalo was only getting 13% of the bets ATS, and the Jaguars are terrible on the road AND the fact that big home dog divisional winners have a probability of coming out flat on the road, Jacksonville is getting my money. The Bills might be scrappy at home, but I'm willing to be bet they'll be minus the s this weekend.

STL @ DET-3: This game might cost me $20, but I'm actually going 100% stomach on this bet to steal a page from Fooch's book. All I keep hearing about this week on Detroit Sports Radio is how this is a must-win game for the Lions. While I'm not completely convinced the Rams are the real deal, I am convinced the team can handle Detroit at Ford Field. I'm jumping on the 80% bandwagon that has seen bettors take St. Louis in the ML, despite 54% taking Detroit ATS. I expect the Lions to lose outright, and tarnish that spotless ATS record. You'll actually be able to see the crowded line of Detroit fans at the Ambassador Bridge waiting patiently to jump off after a loss to St. Louis.

ATL-3 @ CLE: Every week there's a game I think the bettors win outright easily, and this week it will be Atlanta beating Cleveland both ATS (91% of the bettors think so) and in the ML (93%). The fact that Vegas is paying less than good odds (in terms of payout) for Atlanta further secures my belief that Falcons are virtual locks to win and cover. The Brownies should be ready for a letdown after winning against a divisional foe at home the previous week. Roddy White is ready to chase down any Cleveland players if they think otherwise.

Parlay All Day, SF, IND, CIN: With Philly minus Michael Vick and Asante Samuel, I can't help but like the 49ers at home in primetime after a close loss on the road. It's time for the team to put a "W" up on the board, and leave the Lions as the only winless team in the NFC after Week 5 (subtle Carolina over Chicago prediction). The Chiefs are coming off a bye week, but unfortunately have to travel to Indy to face an angry Colts team, a very angry Colts team (led by Peyton Manning last time I checked). The Bengals are also angry after Week 4's letdown against Cleveland, and I apologize for going against two bye week teams, but there's not enough preparation for neither the Bucs or Chiefs to pull off an upset. Although the Romeo Crennel coached Defense might be scheming to confuse Manning, the Colts will be able to make a statement at home.

Fooch's Bet Card

V

H

ATS

ML

PO

RISK

RTN

PHI

SF-3.5

SF-3.5

 

EVEN

 $  100.00

 $     100.00

DEN

BAL-7

BAL-7

 

-110

 $    50.00

 $        45.00

SD-6.5

OAK

SD-6.5

 

-105

 $    50.00

 $        47.50

GB-3

WAS

GB-3

 

-105

 $    50.00

 $        47.50

MIN

NYJ

 

MIN

+165

 $    20.00

 $        33.00

***

Parlay

***

 

 

 

 

PHI

SF-3.5

SF-3.5

 

 

 

 

DEN

BAL-7

BAL-7

 

 

 

 

KC

IND-7

IND-7

 

 

 

 

JAX-1

BUF

JAX-1

 

 

 

 

NYG

HOU-3

HOU-3

 

+2800

 $    30.00

 $     841.79

 

 

 

 

 

 $  300.00

 $  1,114.79

Fooch's Thoughts:

My plummet to bankruptcy continues. Amazing how poor I've done. Well, maybe not all that amazing. I feel like I'm slowly bleeding myself dry so I'm gonna start getting a little more reckless with my betting amounts. Still sticking with games I feel somewhat confident about (and the 49ers), but in the tradition of every other foolish gambler, as my losses increase it's time to start betting more!

....

The 49ers have to win eventually and the Eagles are doing everything they can to give the 49ers a chance. Consider it my high risk high reward wager of the weekend. The Chargers have beaten the Raiders 13 straight times. I'll bet on 14. The Vikings are heading into the Meadowlands but I'd like to think Randy Moss will be looking to blow up in prime time, and once again against Revis. Or I'm just fooling myself.

Florida Danny's Bet Card to come at a later time...

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