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49ers-Rams Preview: Troy Smith/Offensive Line versus Rams Pass Rush

One of the particularly positive qualities 49ers QB Troy Smith exhibited two Sundays ago against the Denver Broncos was escapability. The Broncos would collapse the pocket and start to get a hand on Troy and he would escape from the pressure, buy some time, and get a relatively clean pass off. It seems like in similar situations Alex would either make a bad pass as he was being taken down or he would just go down with the sack. Taking a sack isn't the worst thing in the world, but if you can escape from it as Troy would do it can benefit the offense immensely.

I bring this all up because the 49ers will face a fairly decent pass rush from the St. Louis Rams. The Rams have 23 sacks, which is good for ninth in the NFL. Football Outsiders ranks their pass rush tenth in the league in adjusted sack rate. Adjusted sack rate takes sacks and intentional grounding penalties per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent. The Rams have received sacks from numerous players, but the two guys to keep a close eye on are James Hall and Chris Long. The two defensive ends have combined for 11 sacks and will be a handful for Joe Staley and Anthony Davis.

I took a look at the box scores and game logs for the Rams eight games thus far and I did notice one particularly interesting fact. Of the team's 23 sacks, 22 of them came while the team was tied or ahead. The one sack that occurred while they were trailing came in the first quarter against the Rams when they were down 3-0, so it might as well have been tied. For comparison's sake, 6 of the 49ers 17 sacks came while the team was trailing.

It makes sense that a team would have fewer sacks while trailing than while tied or leading. If a team is trailing the opposition is likely trying to impose their running game and chew up some clock, providing fewer sack opportunities. However, to have only one sack while trailing (and even that wasn't trailing by all that much) seems pretty incredible. Taking an early lead is always a welcome development, and one has to wonder if that will sufficiently help to negate the Rams pass rush.

I actually don't see a ton of sacks happening in this game because I remain convinced it will be a grind 'em out ground battle featuring Frank Gore and Steven Jackson, with the QBs playing more in game manager roles. I've been plenty wrong before so feel free to mock me on Monday when I'm wrong. If the game does open up, the Rams pass rush should be interesting to watch.

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Where did you find those stats?

I’d like to research how often the Rams have played while trailing or tied- if they’ve lost close games and always led in their victories, then the sack stat would hold a bit less meaning.

However, if the total # of plays executed while trailing are roughly equal for both teams, I think the sack stat becomes far more important and a great aspect to focus on going into the game.

49er 'til I die! (if they don't kill me first)

by LA49er on Nov 11, 2010 9:04 AM PST reply actions  

stats

Basically I just found out how many sacks they had each game from the box score, then went through the game log at espn and found their sacks. Here’s the info I typed up.

Vs. Arizona – LOSS
2 sacks (Robbins, Ah You)
• 0-0, 1st quarter; 1st and 10
• 13-10 Rams, 3rd quarter, 1st and 14

@ Oakland – LOSS
2 sacks (Laurinaitis, Hall)
• 7-0 Rams, 2nd quarter, 3rd and 10, Stl 41
• 7-0 Rams, 2nd quarter, 3rd and 10, StL 11

vs. Washington – WIN
1 sack (Hall)
• 24-16, Rams, early 4th quarter, 2nd and 12, Was 25

vs. Seattle – WIN
4 sacks (Hall, Long, Vobora, Selvie)
• 7-3 Rams, 2nd quarter, 1st and 10, Sea 41
• 17-3 Rams, 3rd quarter, 3rd and 13, Sea 42
• 17-3 Rams, 4th quarter, 2nd and 10, Sea 15
• 20-3 Rams, 4th quarter, 1st and 10, Sea 16

@ Detroit – LOSS
1 sack (Selvie)
• 3-0 Lions, 1st quarter, 3rd and 5, Det 39

vs. San Diego – WIN
7 sacks (Grant, Hall, Lond, Robbins)
• 0-0, 1st quarter, 2nd and 12, SD 33
• 3-0 Rams, 1st quarter, 1st and 10, Stl 24
• 10-0 Rams, 1st quarter, 1st and 10, SD 21
• 10-0 Rams, 2nd quarter, 3rd and 7, SD 24
• 17-0 Rams, 2nd quarter, 1st and 10, SD 35
• 17-10 Rams, 4th quarter, 2nd and 10, Stl 42
• 17-10 Rams, 4th quarter, 2nd and 20, Stl 27

@ Tampa Bay – LOSS
3 sacks (Hall, Ah You, Long, Cudjo)
• 0-0, 1st quarter, 3rd and 4, Stl 42
• 0-0, 1st quarter, 1st and 26, Stl 26
• 17-3 Rams, 2nd quarter, 1st and 10, Stl 49

vs. Carolina – WIN
3 sacks (Laurinaitis, Atogwe, Long)
• 10-3 Rams, 3rd quarter, 2nd and 12, Stl 37
• 10-3 Rams, 3rd quarter, 3rd and 13, Car 28
• 20-3 Rams, 4th quarter, 2nd and 10, Car 20

by David Fucillo on Nov 11, 2010 9:35 AM PST up reply actions  

really good stuff, Fooch--you know I love this kind of sack-tracker research

What jumps out to me is the number of times that they’re getting sacks on early downs. They’ve got 13 sacks out of their 23 sacks on 1st or 2nd down, which is a very good percentage. That either means that they’re getting good pressure from their base-package front 4 or that their coverage is really good on the back end. With Atogwe back and healthy and playing well, I can see how the latter could be the case…though their corners aren’t anything too special from what I can recall.
When you get an early down sack, it’s much easier to get the opposition off the field, so this will definitely be something to watch on Sunday.

Fantasy Ontology: the world's most entertaining form of reductionism!
twitter me @grantmp1

by grantmp on Nov 11, 2010 10:01 AM PST up reply actions  

early down sacks

Does that mean they’re not forcing a lot of third and longs? Or not bringing much pressure on third and long?

by David Fucillo on Nov 11, 2010 10:05 AM PST up reply actions  

well, what you notice is that...

when you look at the times when they do get sacks on 3rd downs, they tend to be on third and longs. I haven’t watched a minute of live Rams football this year, so I wouldn’t be the person to ask.
Spags was the Giants DC when the Giants won the Super Bowl, and he tends to work strictly with his front 4—he’s something of the opposite of the Saints’ DC Gregg Williams, who loves Zero coverages and big blitzes.

Fantasy Ontology: the world's most entertaining form of reductionism!
twitter me @grantmp1

by grantmp on Nov 11, 2010 11:47 AM PST up reply actions  

Oh yeah, Spags loves the d-line.

He does dial up a number of exotic blitzes though. Our DC Ken Flajole calls the plays and 1st and 2nd downs (very good job too) and Spags himself does the 3rd down plays. I think that is also a big reason our 3rd down defense has been extremely good this year. Whatever the distance is, Spags knows how to call 3rd downs, that’s for sure.

"I kind of stepped my swagger up. You look at the Madden game and the swagger's so low, maybe they'll bump me up. Before it was a meatball flex, so you've got to liven it up a little bit." - Animal Jr.

by douchiedude on Nov 12, 2010 4:17 PM PST up reply actions  

You have no idea

how much I love looking at the Chargers line… Thank you :D

"I kind of stepped my swagger up. You look at the Madden game and the swagger's so low, maybe they'll bump me up. Before it was a meatball flex, so you've got to liven it up a little bit." - Animal Jr.

by douchiedude on Nov 12, 2010 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

agreed: Troy may not be a faster QB or a better runner than Alex...

but he seemed to have very good agility in the pocket last week, dodging rushers, faking them out, and then gaining enough separation to make a clean throw downfield—rather than a rushed throw out of bounds.

Fantasy Ontology: the world's most entertaining form of reductionism!
twitter me @grantmp1

by grantmp on Nov 11, 2010 10:02 AM PST up reply actions  

Pump fakes

You don’t see those from Alex. Yet another reason for me to like Troy

by Ikaros on Nov 11, 2010 11:31 AM PST up reply actions  

That's such a weapon for a QB, and Alex uses it much less...

and much less effectively than Troy…from what I’ve seen (which isn’t much).

Fantasy Ontology: the world's most entertaining form of reductionism!
twitter me @grantmp1

by grantmp on Nov 11, 2010 11:48 AM PST up reply actions  

being short(ish)

I’ve always noticed that the QBs who have a reported “height deficiency” seem to be really good at feeling the pocket. i wonder if it can be seen as an advantage to be a shorter QB, having to build a sense of intuition throughout your career in order to get your arm into the right spot to make a throw…

by t p on Nov 11, 2010 1:55 PM PST up reply actions  

i think first have we rush up the middle

until we realize we need to pass in 3rd quarter because we are losing.

by HUNGRY HUNTER on Nov 11, 2010 9:50 AM PST reply actions  

I hope for your sake

the rookie doesn’t have to line up against Chris Long :). Long has been an absolute beast this year, despite his low sack total. I think he’s among the league leaders in pressure, hits and sacks (whatever you call it combined) altogether. Should be a fun, defensive game to watch, I think it stays close and I’m putting my money on the Rams, literally (6 point underdogs?!). Game day is near, good luckkkkkk, that o-line will need it >:)

"I kind of stepped my swagger up. You look at the Madden game and the swagger's so low, maybe they'll bump me up. Before it was a meatball flex, so you've got to liven it up a little bit." - Animal Jr.

by douchiedude on Nov 12, 2010 4:15 PM PST reply actions  

that's IF the St. Louis d-line can get to Troy...

no guarantees he won’t escape and watch Long fly right by and go ‘ahh f*ck’!!!

by Doni S on Nov 13, 2010 9:09 AM PST up reply actions  

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